BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. William Bowe@2249

    Fred, the “about Rowan Ramsey” page tells us that the man is very keen on family, farming, democracy and the great nation of Australia. It does not however say anything of substance “about Rowan Ramsey”.

    Doesn’t that in itself tell you something?

  2. [
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Setting up this RC is a precedent that will almost certainly come to bite the Liberals in the bum when Labor returns to power.

    We’ll worry about when it happens… around 2022.
    ]
    This is shaping up to being the three wasted years, with Labor getting back in in 2.75 years having to, restart fibre to the home so that the jobs and economic activity that investment enables can occur, reimplementing an ETS to the economic activity required to change to a clean economy can occur, re-establish the marine reserves so that fisheries are maintained, re-establish relationships with Indonesia so we can trade with our nearest neighbour, attempt to bring the Liberals runaway budget under control, bringing en economy to it’s knees does not balance a budget.

    Get the picture Sean, these guys are just a bunch of clown trying to turn back the cloak. It is not 1950.

  3. [FTTP doesn’t need street cabinets, because the GPON nodes are small enough to fit in pits and don’t require electrical power.]

    A. COMPLETE. AND. TOTAL. LIE.

  4. 2252
    frednk

    I think Abbott wants to undo the whole post-war project and take us back to the 1920’s.

    The whole nation-building program and social architecture that has come with it are to be toppled and razed.

    Abbott will not have it be said that he was a Liberal PM who did nothing with his opportunity. He wants to break the whole thing into a thousand pieces so it can never be put back together.

  5. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    AA,

    FTTH Also has cabinets…. a little fact often ignored.
    —————————————-

    got a link?

    Surcharge to be paid by companies to fund DA?

  6. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    I wish the left would stop inventing their own facts, it makes them look silly when they are proven wrong.
    —————————————————

    You should stop making up your own facts. It only confirms that you are a Liberal troll moron.

    What surcharge?

  7. Sean Tisme@2254

    FTTP doesn’t need street cabinets, because the GPON nodes are small enough to fit in pits and don’t require electrical power.


    A. COMPLETE. AND. TOTAL. LIE.

    Did you read the page I posted, or are you just a total nitwit?

    FTTN needs one of these about every thousand houses. They are unpowered fibre termination points, about the same size and doing the same job as the existing Telstra posts you see in many suburbs.

    FTTH needs a FULLY POWERED Cabinet every few hundred metres, or about every 10 houses. Here is what they look like in the UK:

    http://delimiter.com.au/2013/04/12/fttn-cabinets-hideous-say-designers/

    PLEASE do some basic research before you post your nonsense.

  8. Tism,

    Talking about lies, I note the boats haven’t stopped.

    So your mob are can’t fulfil their major promise ….. all along it was just a lie!

    That makes them both incompetent rabble and liars.

    How embarrassing to admit supporting such a team.

  9. FFTH Cabinets are not powered and are much smaller than FTTN cabinets, but the claim that FTTH doesn’t need cabinets is clearly bullshit… because they do and they are using them.

  10. Sean, How about all the facts and no cherry picking

    Fibre Distribution Hubs (or FDHs) are unpowered, street-side cabinets used to provide a connection point between the larger distribution network and the local fibre network which ultimately leads to your home.

    Each one can connect between 288 and 576 homes or businesses to the network,

  11. Deblonay 2239 Was in Barcelona for Catalan day a couple of months ago … the Catalans are passionate about their language and heritage, and rightly so, an amazing culture, history and community. Had an amazing night in Barcalonetta at a local grass roots, community event we stumbled upon after a day sightseeing… music, salsa dancing, craft beers, fireworks and a quite wonderful local community atmosphere….

  12. Sean Bacchus Marsh has fibre to the home, junction boxes yes, street cabinets with truck loads of electronics, batteries that have to be maintained and the need for power from somewhere, no.

    Turnbull’s little effort is going to be money down the drain, the whole dam lot will have to be ripped out and dumped.

    I reality is hard for the Liberals to deal with but that is the way it is.

  13. psyclaw,

    the boats are stopping… don’t blow your top Abbott has only been in power for 100 days to sort Labors mess out, he hasn’t had 6 Years to stop the boats like the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Circus did.

  14. [ Of course, FTTN doesn’t *need* cabinets either ]

    Actually, I think it probably does. You can’t really put such a massive amount of electricity consuming and heat generating equipment in the ground. Also, the maintenance on this equipment will be very high (think how much maintenance Telstra has to do now to maintain their rotting copper – this would require all that and more!) so the pits would have to have enough room to have people working around the equipment.

    It just wouldn’t be practical or economic – except perhaps in very rich suburbs like Vaucluse, of course.

  15. Citizen @1616,

    [What game is Murdoch playing now? After going into a frenzy attacking the ABC over the revelation of spying on SBY and his wife]

    I suspect the difference is that they’re being leeked to directly by the spy agencies, which is presumably acceptable.

    Though I may be attacked for saying it, the fact that the agencies are leeking to the media is proof enough that the tapping of the phones was unnecessary. I mean, even if what they say is true, it’s all information that could have, in fact probably would have, been gathered by diplomats.

  16. The boats are stopping because of the Labor PNG policy.

    Abbott and Morrison have done nothing to assist in stopping the boats, in fact they have done the opposite by pissing Indonesia off and now Indonesia wont assist or co-operate with Australian authorities.

  17. It just wouldn’t be practical or economic – except perhaps in very rich suburbs like Vaucluse, of course

    They already have FTTH delivered by a Labor Govt.

  18. @Sean/2271

    Tony Abbott had 6 years in Opposition, with all the help available as Opposition leader like Treasury, PBO, being at foreign meetings etc, but no.

    @Player One/2273

    Yes, it does need them, putting VDSL2 in the existing exchanges will make no change at all.

  19. Broken promises
    Buy the boats
    Turn the Boats
    Stop the Boats

    All broken promises.

    Gonski/education – another broken promise

    Debt out of control….deficit out of control.

    The adults can’t get it right and can only behave like little children blaming others for their own incompetence

  20. The PNG Solution… which involves processing in Nauru and PNG… gee… now where have I heard that one before?

    All that was old is new again in the minds of Laborites.

  21. I’m not sure why Tisme would want to argue that the new Labor solution is the old, successful Liberal solution when that implies whatever it is Abbott is doing up North right now is a essentially resource wasting stunt, especially when he himself has expressed such concern over mismanagement, waste and inefficient use of resources.

  22. Abbott’s hypocrisy is breathtaking, claiming LNP didn’t indulge in blame game & political point scoring. Must think we’ve been asleep for 3yrs

  23. Sean

    After 100 days there is very little for this government to write home about.

    It has made some positive noises on regulation and small business but besides that they have done very little and if the performance in QT this week is an indication of the internal mood of the government it is not a fun place too be at the moment.

    This government’s best performer in the media as been Josh and he isn’t even in the cabinet.

    Overall its been a poor start, 2/10 (trying to be positive)

  24. Rossmore re Barcelona_______________
    _________________
    Some time ago we had a similar experience to yours . We arrived on the Feast of St James ,which is a big day with many events in the evening,streets closed for dancing and great fireworks and bonfires
    It is a city with a great mood,and the people we found were friendly and open and there was a festive air,and much tossing of fireworks!….a bit worrying
    great place though and I have no doubt they will create a vital and lively nation…though they are already that I think

  25. MB,

    a lot of it is artificial “chaos” created by the leftwing ABC and Fairfax media. I mean the ABC and Fairfax blaming Abbott for spying under Labors watch?? Really?

    After the Dog and Pony Show of the last 6 Years the media are desperate for their 24 Hour media cycle trying to invent news stories because they don’t have anything interesting to report otherwise.

  26. Sean

    -So its the media that showed Pyne confused over Gonski, we even had the minister claiming that the media had misunderstood his policies.

    It took everyday and a fair bit of heat for the minister to come out with a package of money for some parts of Australia.

    -Holden wanting a business arrangement but the government chose instead of negotiating with the company it chose to write a letter which was released to the media and for the Treasurer to rant in the parliament with the AFR front page.

    -Indonesia wanted a friendly chat about things which had been reported yet at first the PM was dismissive with supporters openly bagging the Indonesians.

    Now Sean that is just three things which this government has been marked down for, I will wait and see what the Treasurer comes up with this week before commenting on his strategy.

    Although there is an issue with the quality of the Audit of Commission.

    Several hacks have been appointed which raises an issue about the suitability of the candidates this government is hiring for senior advisory roles.

    -David Murray
    -Tony Shepard
    -Maurice Newman

  27. Zoidy

    Yes the falling market does seem to be against the tide of global markets.

    Hockey may think its a smart move to come out this week and trash the budget and try and blame the previous government but if it adversarial affects business confidence then that will rest at his feet.

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