BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  1. sustainable
    [here we go

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/union-slush-funds-to-be-exposed/story-fn59noo3-1226781099333#

    desperate (but predictable – well, I predicted the libs would try to de-fund the ALP by going after the unions) stuff from a desperate government. this is an attack on democracy.]
    I’m not sure that this will be such a good idea for the coalition.

    The attitudinal suveys still say that people think unions are a good thing. Also I think MORE people will be joining unions after seeing what the true coalition agenda is.

    In addition, the Together Union in Queensland has already put together a model which tries to put the political funding beyond the reach of the Newman government and I predict that will be widely copied.

    Finally, such concentration on internal workings of unions will be a huge opportunity for a corresponding political attack to be made on the much worse practices that happen in the business world.

    The only success Abbott is having is driving political debate to a more and more hysterical level – probably suits his hankering for his student politics days.

    I actually think Shorten is proving a very good counter to Abbott (although I voted for Albanese in the Labor members ballot). He is coming across as the quiet and reassuring adult in the room – anyone remember another recent politician who carried this tactic off very well? Hint, his intitials were JWH, and he was a great “political” success, even if a policy disaster.

  2. As slothy @43 points out the Union negotiated an agreement that reduced the manufacturing cost.

    They negotiated any impact of the carbon price out of relevance.

    The workers gave up wage increases and agreed to work longer hours.

    The Abbott Govt only is to blame for the decision.

  3. guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 7:44 am | PERMALINK
    Abbott in hiding. NewsBreakfast unable to get government politicians on to face the music

    Told on twitter he was on Ch 7 getting a back massage

  4. mari

    Yes after that he went on ABC AM. However not going on 24 is a lot of regional viewers he has missed.

    Probably scared of Trioli having seen her expose Children Overboard

  5. It’s so disappointing that the Senate election went the way it did. Abbott threatened a double dissolution over carbon (Bring it on!, Labor would say now), but he will cite the new Senate as an excuse to avoid it.

  6. Shorten did well on ABC24 this morning, I am becoming increasingly more comfortable that he has what it takes. He is coming across as a credible alternative that is prepared to fight for jobs. This Holden debacle is making the coalition look mean (more?) and uncaring.

  7. Sustainable future 41

    Agree but what about the slush funds on Central coast by LNP MPs and their office, could be damaging to both parties?

  10. That Union agreement saved Holden $15 million a year.

    And what did Abbott and his cronies do….destroyed their employment and now are lying about why Holden closed.

  12. The cost of helping GMH workers will be higher than subsidising the company to stay here you really can’t make this crap up can you?

  14. He’s going to be diplomatic regardless of how the government’s attitude affected the decision. Holden is still here for a few years and the company doesn’t want to get a reputation for blaming governments for its decisions.

  17. After dispatching childcare workers and automotive industry workers earlier this week, it appears today is “lets shaft the aged care workers day”.

    This from todays Reps Daily Program

    [Government business
    Notices
    No. 1 — Suspension of standing orders to enable consideration of government business notices of motions relating to the Residential Care and Aged Care Subsidies — Mr K. J. Andrews (Minister for Social Services) to move motion appearing on the Notice Paper in his name.
    When motion agreed to —

    No. 2 — Motion to disallow the Residential Care Subsidy Amendment (Workforce Supplement) Principle 2013 made under the Aged Care Act 1997 — Mr K. J. Andrews (Minister for Social Services) to move motion appearing on the Notice Paper in his name.
    Debate to be adjourned until a later hour.

    No. 3 — Motion to disallow the Aged Care (Residential Care Subsidy – Workforce Supplement Amount) Determination 2013 made under the Aged Care Act 1997 — Mr K. J. Andrews (Minister for Social Services) to move motion appearing on the Notice Paper in his name.
    Debate to be adjourned until a later hour.
    No.]

  18. The more we see of the Abbott Coalition, the more it is becoming clear that the politics of governing is beyond them. Abbott is unable, or unwilling to engage in any serious policy development, congenitally and by upbringing incapable of being anything other than opposed to any social progress, and this character flaw manifests itself in his bellicose rhetoric on every issue, and in his utter inability to be positive about any issue of public policy … he has built his political career on negativity, and cannot make the intellectual leap to the type of leadership required of any Prime Minister to be a success for themselves, and for the nation.

    Three months into their already failing tenure in office, this Government has already shown that they have forgotten nothing and learned nothing in their period in Opposition – still wanting to fight the discredited culture wars against the ABC and other revisionist chimera of the Howard era, they have no vision for the nation’s future that cannot be reduced to a balance sheet of profits for their business constituents.

    The recent ‘Keating’ interviews on the ABC highlight the yawning gulf between this small-minded and weak pack of snivelling business lackeys, and the broad vision for the nation’s economic and social future, as was mapped out by our leaders in the Hawke and Keating years.

    Australia? …. you’re standing in it!

  20. Interesting to note the tories here last night still anxious to ‘defend’ abbott last night – at any cost –

    [ davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    People it’s fashionable here at PB to blame the Abbott government for everything including the flu but the dad fact is that both Ford and GMH are closing because Australians stopped buying Commodores and Falcons. ]

    Gottliebsen it very differently and sets out a whole chain of events, linkages and consequences that flow from the tories bullying Holden to the rushed decision.

    Gottliebsen, still on murdoch’s payroll and still very much going after abbott –

    [ Holden’s eight hard lessons for Abbott

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Treasurer Joe Hockey have yet to grasp the full implications of what they have done in helping drive General Motors out of Australia.

    And for Tony Abbott to suggest that the GMH workers can get work at Olympic dam is a cruel hoax for South Australians.

    BHP has yet to work out how to mine, treat and transport Olympic Dam material on a larger scale. The old large open pit plan was a boom-time uneconomic idea. And Holden is likely to close well before 2017.

    Here are eight implications from the Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey decision.

    1. At the election Tony Abbott did not seek a mandate from the Australian people to close the automotive industry so he has given Bill Shorten a carbon tax-style issue, which will be particularly effective in South Australia and Victoria.

    If Shorten follows the Abbott popular appeal formula that the Coalition leader used with such devastation against Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten will achieve similar opinion poll results. Don’t be surprised if those poor Coalition opinion polls cause leadership change speculation in year or two.

    2. Abbott and Hockey never had the normal honeymoon given to political leaders. They are starting on a process of major reform of financial services, superannuation, competition etc. As Paul Keating has so graphically described in his ABC interviews, to make major reform changes you need political capital. Within three months of office Abbott and Hockey have spent a large chunk of their political capital and with the mining investment boom ending and retail carnage ahead, plus the public service reductions, the Coalition’s forward-thinking plans for reform may have to be sidelined.
    This is a tragedy for Australia.

    3. There is still a chance that the closure of the entire motor industry can be avoided and Toyota retained if the government comes in behind the parts makers and helps them further diversify and market internationally (Give Holden’s money to the parts makers, December 11).

    But if it does not then the industry will crumble well before 2016-17. Immediately bankers will be looking nervously at parts makers’ balance sheets and investment will stop; consumer purchases of Commodores and Cruzes will fall and those who have bought Commodores recently will suffer big losses; the lower demand and banker pressure will make it hard for many parts makers to continue.

    4. A large part of Australia’s manufacturing skills base in defence and other areas will go out the window with motor. And the big rise coming in gas prices will kill off another part of the manufacturing sector. It’s true that manufacturing has been declining but to suddenly wipe most of it out when the mining investment boom was ending is a disaster for the country.

    5. It is likely Labor will win power in Victoria next year, partly in protest against Abbott and Hockey.

    6. Be ready for rises in bad bank debts, particularly in South Australia and Victoria.

    7. Retrenchment funding and unemployment rises stemming from the simultaneous decline of motor, mining investment and retail areas will hit the budget. The LNG and iron ore profits will need to be big to cover the large government costs.

    8. Where will Australia gain its growth? There are five industries that stand out – mining for revenue but not employment; agriculture, tourism, Chinese investment in housing, education and possibly some areas of health, although our health costs are too high for export.

    Bruce Billson’s plan to stimulate small enterprise now becomes the government’s only hope of redemption. ]
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/12/automotive/holdens-eight-hard-lessons-abbott

  21. mari – the terms of the royal commission will look only at union slush funds. funds paid for by developers, mining companies, tobacco lobbyists, insurance companies and far right loon groups will of course be exempt. government funding of chambers of commerce that then donate to or lobby on behalf of the LNP will also be exempt (look to victoria – VECCI and AiG always pick up a lot of ‘industry assistance’ funding for programs that don’t actually do much – both have recently been generously funded out of ‘environmental’ programs to promote efficiency – they have recieved these int he past and left most people scratching their heads over what was actually delivered).

  23. Guytaur

    [Well now in Howard speak that negative talk is a BBW stopper.]

    OK…from here on there will be nothing but negative talk from me 🙂

  24. Barrie Cassidy will be speaking to Jon Faine on 774ABC in the next half hour to give his perspective on the week in politics and the Holden decision

  27. I hope Abbott doesn’t get any ideas from this:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-12/canada-to-phase-out-home-mail-delivery-to-cut-big-losses/5151336

    [Canada’s postal service will cease home delivery within five years and hike the cost of postage stamps to try to stem soaring losses as customers switch to digital communications.]

    Another ‘conservative’ government cuts services.

    Hopefully Australia Post is better placed financially than its Canadian counterpart, with growing parcel business and business diversification at post offices.

  30. [Alan Kohler ‏
    You know, it might just work… RT @UberFacts: Female squid can wear fake testicles to avoid advancements from male squids.]

  32. The Big Ship

    [ he has built his political career on negativity, and cannot make the intellectual leap to the type of leadership required of any Prime Minister to be a success for themselves, and for the nation.

    Three months into their already failing tenure in office, this Government has already shown that they have forgotten nothing and learned nothing in their period in Opposition – still wanting to fight the discredited culture wars against the ABC and other revisionist chimera of the Howard era, they have no vision for the nation’s future that cannot be reduced to a balance sheet of profits for their business constituents.

    The recent ‘Keating’ interviews on the ABC highlight the yawning gulf between this small-minded and weak pack of snivelling business lackeys, and the broad vision for the nation’s economic and social future, as was mapped out by our leaders in the Hawke and Keating years.

    Australia? …. you’re standing in it!}

    Agree with every word you said!

  35. [Shorten did well on ABC24 this morning, I am becoming increasingly more comfortable that he has what it takes. He is coming across as a credible alternative that is prepared to fight for jobs. This Holden debacle is making the coalition look mean (more?) and uncaring.]

    Thirdborn314

    Shorten was impressive on ABC this am. I think he stunned Trioli with his straight talking. My weary flu affected, bleary self was cheered.

    BTW I hope you all avoid the bug going around. OH was badly affected for 3 weeks and this is my 2nd. It’s nasty so stay well Bludgers ♡

  37. BCassidy basically says nothing to see here on holden move along. Interestingly, he is more concerned with the East Timor spy case and Brandis having ordered raids and seizing of passport of witness. What he and Jon Faine cannot understand is what Labor is being silent on this matter, as they believe it is extremely serious. They reckon Brandis is conducting himself along the lines of putin…..

  39. Confessions

    There has been a concerted campaign by News Ltd and the Hirds to trash Andrew Demetriou and the AFL. The bottom line is they have their sights on seeing the demise of Demetriou.
    James and Tanya Hird should indeed stfu. My dislike for them grows by the day

  42. We oughta do a sweep, or call a bingo card.

    On:

    -which COALition minister will stuff up next [previous misters eligible for second or multiple stuff-up[s]]

    -which political issue will be the subject of the next COALition stuff up [in case of multiple ministers fumbling]

    -when will the next stuff up occur;

    a. today
    b. tomorrow
    c. soon after

    Note – Tony Abbott is not eligible as, judging on performance thus far, he will stuff up:
    a] daily
    b] on multiple issues

    Note #2 – the phrase ‘stuff up’ is a polite euphemism for something similar but more direct.

  44. “@ABCNews24: A division has been called in Parliament. We will return live to the Labor Caucus for Paul Keating’s address shortly #auspol #ABCNews24”

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