BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  3. Professor of Economic Quiggin comments on the Holden issue.

    Another day, another stuffup from what already looks like the most incompetent government in Australian history.
    The Abbott government’s treatment of the car industry has been a disaster in policy terms, and just as bad as far as process is concerned.
    The key policy failure was the decision to retain fringe benefits tax breaks for cars (90 per cent of which are imported) at a cost of $1.8 billion over the forward estimates, while withdrawing Labor’s promise to give a much smaller amount in additional assistance to the remaining domestic manufacturers GMH and Toyota.
    Assuming Toyota also pulls out, every bit of the FBT concession will be public money sent overseas, with the exception of the slice creamed off by the salary packaging industry. …….

    http://johnquiggin.com/

  6. I was just thinking the other day that we were overdue for another round of hysteria over government banning smacking.

    Smacks of desperation from the PM. ‘LOOK OVER THERE!’

  7. Is there a precedent for a federal government taking wage rises away from workers? Such as the LNP have done with Childcare and aged care workers?

    Such mean and nasty politics…

  8. Smacks of desperation from the PM. ‘LOOK OVER THERE’

    Other leaders would distract with a vision, an idea or a discussion. But not Tony, who sees voters as nothing more than 2GB callers and Bolt blog commenters.

  11. ‘gentle smack’ is it now? from a PM that wants all the local industries to go caput?

    Get your priorities straight, this is going to be a shit xmas for many people.

  14. Can someone from the Labor brains trust please remind us who was in power when both Ford and Mitsubishi announced they were ending their car assembly operations in Australia???

    Thank you….

  16. Btw, love how you got that heart in your comment!

    Fess I’m not that clever – the heart is on my sickbed mate , Galaxy tab!

    Victoria Thanks, watching PJK plus Bill this morning is good medicine

  17. @Sean/114

    Why isn’t Coalition putting more money into our Car Industry like Germany?

    Everytime Labor puts more money it, it gets blamed.

  18. @abcnews: Prime Minister Tony Abbott says a ‘gentle smack’ can be good for children: http://t.co/GJDYoeCDYP

    I was just thinking the other day that we were overdue for another round of hysteria over government banning smacking.

    Did Abbott run this comment past Peta? Is it government policy or just part of his personal approach to life? Has he therefore preempted the government’s consideration of the statutory report by the National Children’s Commissioner?

  19. liyana

    I mentioned the other day that my daughter is in the Childcare industry and the workers are disgusted with the Coalition’s change of heart.

    They are paid appallingly already and now the Government want something else for them.

    Of course if they were in highly paid professional jobs this government would assist parents by giving them $75,000 so they wouldn’t have to care about childcare.

    Such mean and nasty politics indeed!

  21. Can someone from the Labor brains trust please remind us who was in power when both Ford and Mitsubishi announced they were ending their car assembly operations in Australia???

    Apparently that is Abbotts fault as well. he is all seeing all knowing just blame him for everything. Labor are saints and can do no wrong.

  25. “@ABCNews24: .@Vic_Premier: I’ll look the PM in the eye and make a strong case for a substantial assistance package #Holden #auspol #springst”

  27. Abbott hauling out the child smacking unicorn.

    The last time he got himself in hot water for stuffing up Australia he opined that every child in Australia should be forced to learn the Bible.

    Abbott: Clueless in Canberra.

  30. So we had Macfarlane saying wait until we figure out what we can do for you, which will be after Christmas some time, don’t you dare try to hurry us.

    And we had Hockey in Parliament braying about wanting a decision from GM immediately.

    How klutzment.

  32. The last time he got himself in hot water for stuffing up Australia he opined that every child in Australia should be forced to learn the Bible.

    Perhaps he meant that children should be smacked with the Bible.

  34. Napthine sounding somewhat forceful.

    Can we really believe he’ll put a ‘strong case’ to the PM for a package of assistance for affected employees?

  35. Hasn’t the PM got more important things to do than expound on the virtues or otherwise of “gentle smacking”?

    The nation is crying out for leadership on the big issues: bottle or breast??

  47. “@RonaldR362: 83% of Australia’s mining industry is foreign owned. 81% of their profits go overseas. Yet Govt gives them $3 Billlion in subsidies #auspol”

  50. “@RonaldR362: 83% of Australia’s mining industry is foreign owned. 81% of their profits go overseas. Yet Govt gives them $3 Billlion in subsidies #auspol”

    Yup, no prob with billions a year in subsidies if its for Gina, or if its directed to making housing less affordable.

    But to keep people employed?? Oh no,no,no,no…….

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