It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.
Tlbd
[No doubt Alan Joyce will get a bonus for this.]
He seems to have learnt from the Libs : CRISIS
Steve777
[a ‘mandate’ to abolish carbon pricing?]
Since he’s called it “carbon tax” for ever, I don’t agree. How could he be sure that’s what people understood?
Hey, remember how the Coalition hacks were gloating about how the LNP had the best odds for the Griffith by-election (implying that Labor might as well concede the race and avoid embarrassment)? Well, I checked them all, Labor are paying $1.50 v the LNP’s $2.50 across the board.
If you’re trying to panic the government into giving a handout or changing the rules in your favour, what better way than sacking workers and creating a crisis…
zoomster@120
It is entirely self explanatory. But if you require remedial reading assistance I will give it when I have time.
bemused@155
Oh, no need, I see TP stepped in to provide the help you needed here:
Thomas. Paine.@126
bemused
Oh, I understand, all right. You saw an opening for an implied slur on a past Prime Minister, so of course you took it.
Eyes wide shut.
[The mandate the electorate actually meant to give the Abbott government may differ from the mandate the government thinks it was given.]
So good I tweeted it, mimhoff.
https://twitter.com/BushfireBill/status/408392902931259392
bemused
no, he didn’t. Like you, he went off on a tangent because he wanted to have a Gillard-bash.
The disappointing thing was that I worded my post carefully to try and avoid the stupidity repeating itself – but, of course, fixed obsessions have a way of circumventing careful precautions.
zoomster@157
No, just corrected for your airbrushing of history. I attributed nothing to either Rudd or Gillard. It is something owned more widely.
[No doubt Alan Joyce will get a bonus for this.]
Or a seat on Abbott’s Business Advisory Council.
zoomster@160
He saw your comprehension difficulties and stepped in to make it simple for you.
I was apparently too circumspect.
OK that’s it. Boring discussion back on the table and anyway Crikey is on a work-to-rule slow day. I’m off.
[If you’re trying to panic the government into giving a handout or changing the rules in your favour, what better way than sacking workers and creating a crisis…]
Worked for Holden and Ford when they sucked money out of the Gillard Government… then Ford announced it was shutting shop anyway, while laughing all the way to the bank.
Circular …
bemused
You and TP are wrong. This discussion is about early term government and if its going to be one term or not.
Labor had a good honeymoon and did get a second term. No matter who was PM at the time that is fact.
Sean @147 – it was Qantas management that shut Qantas down just on two years ago, strangely enough without mouth-frothing rage from the then Opposition or the usual right-wing mouthpieces in the media.
Yep, watch the cricket I think..
Sean @147 – it was Qantas management that shut Qantas down just on two years ago, strangely enough without mouth-frothing rage from the then Opposition or the usual right-wing mouthpieces in the media.
@Sean/165
So you rather an industry to collapse itself? It’s a pitty you didn’t mention FBT.
“@joeobrien24: Archie Law from ActionAid joins me shortly to discuss the ramifications of spies being planted in Aid programs. @ABCNews24”
Warner gorn!
Shit ball – shit shot.
guytaur@167
It barely got a second term because of its own insanity.
bemused
It still got it. Not the point of this discussion
http://www.theage.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-to-cut-1000-jobs-20131205-2ys00.html?cx_source=recs#cxrecs_s
quick Tones – flouro vest and a presser blaming the carbon ‘tax’ and ‘The Worst Govmit Ever’.
oh hang on………
guytaur – The point of every discussion is to be an entry into a Rudd/Gillard war rehash as far as bemused is concerned.
So now, according to bemused, I don’t understand my own posts!
[lizzie
Posted Thursday, December 5, 2013 at 11:37 am | PERMALINK
OK that’s it. Boring discussion back on the table and anyway Crikey is on a work-to-rule slow day. I’m off.]
Agree Lizzie, will call in this afternoon for a look
It seems according to Sean, would rather have the Aviation industry caput and Car Industry caput.
Carey M:
[ Hey, remember how the Coalition hacks were gloating about how the LNP had the best odds for the Griffith by-election (implying that Labor might as well concede the race and avoid embarrassment)? Well, I checked them all, Labor are paying $1.50 v the LNP’s $2.50 across the board.]
Does the ALP even have a candidate yet?
It was a pity Rudd wasn’t dumped earlier. Stabbed him in the back? Too bad they didn’t kick his stinking heap of putrid gump into the deepest sewer while they were at it. They left a festering poison to eat at the heart of the party, by humouring a rat.
@Wersula: Brilliant article! What a hoot! We Did It! We Broke The Australian’s Brain http://t.co/BONP8dk6C0 via @sharethis
This NSW Central Coast Liberal party ICAC issue could finally give the Libs the Dobell by-election they’ve been wanting……Oh wait
Just regarding Mumble’s latest pronostications, let’s not forget that he was the one who predicted a Labour victory on 7 September. Political commentators in some ways are just like the Jehovah’s Witnesses. No matter how badly their predictions turn out, they still want us to believe they are the only ones who have all the answers.
[ This NSW Central Coast Liberal party ICAC issue could finally give the Libs the Dobell by-election they’ve been wanting……Oh wait]
Be careful what you wish for… 😉
“@latikambourke: Labor’s Kelvin Thomson – Libs debt deal w. Greens bit more than a ‘cup of coffee with another man’ – more like ‘candlelit dinner & flowers.’”
More proof about who the COALition are owned by
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/5/wind-power/hunts-new-brown-coal-adviser?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=538020&utm_campaign=cs_daily&modapt=
@AdamBandt: With debt limit gone & public spending vital for the economy at the moment, Libs now have no justification for brutal cuts at budget time.
“@TheKouk: @AdamBandt What about gentle cuts?”
And yet they already doing budget cuts.
Regardless of what the greens say, idiots.
Why did Labor invent a debt ceiling and then bust through their newly created debt ceiling?
I mean whats the point of Labors debt ceiling if they just bust through it like a rocket?
Labor truly are incompetent.
[ It still got it. Not the point of this discussion ]
You’re wasting your breath, guytaur.
The two monomaniacs of PB are back, and will bend any sensible discussion of any issue to their peurile ends.
[ Why did Labor invent a debt ceiling and then bust through their newly created debt ceiling? ]
Why do you keep posting the same nonsense over and over again?
@Sean/192
The incompetent ones is the one who think doing austerity measures is going to fix the economy.
@jonathanvswan: Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos may review pledge to scrap Clean Energy Finance Corporation http://t.co/9qIIC1LCki via @theage
So that’s what the greens deal was about.
Damn! – missed this one because I no longer even bother to visit the web site of the Onanistic Oracle:
From http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/call-to-strip-abc-of-australia-network/story-e6frg996-1226765667657 Paywalled, but you’ll get the idea …
[ THE government has been urged to review the ABC’s contract to provide the Australia Network international television service in the wake of the outrage sparked by its revelations of Australian phone tapping in Indonesia. ]
Talk about drawing a long bow!
[174….bemused]
It is really time to put the internecine feuding aside. Errors were doubtless made by all concerned. The point surely is to learn from that episode and to put the divisions aside. The obvious lessons are that disunity in itself is fatal and that the blame game really only serves the interests of the LNP.
Abbott has got off to a very poor start and is already vulnerable. It will not be possible for him to keep all his (self-contradictory) promises while the economy continues to lack fundamental vitality.
Whatever his “audit” might disclose, Labor ran a very tight regime and left very little room for cost-cutting. Outlays as a share of GDP were tightly contained. Even though new programs were set up, they were essentially funded by drawing from existing programs. In fact, the drivers of fiscal collections mean the budget will remain in deficit unless there are far-reaching to the tax system – reforms that have not been canvassed with the electorate, for which there is no constituency and which Abbott will instinctively avoid.
Considering he has staked his claims to govern on being able to better manage the budget, “debt” and the economy, Abbott will have to face the fact that he has very few options left other than to pursue real economic reforms – reforms that will build productivity growth but which will necessarily challenge his core support base.
Abbott has credentials as a policy smasher, but has never promised anything approaching genuine economic reform. Rather, his instincts are to eschew change and to engage in attack-politics. It is doubtful that Abbott’s belligerence will be sufficient for him to govern effectively. All it will do is alienate the electorate, who are fed up with the antics of retribution and destruction and the dissembling that goes with them.
In other respects, it is obvious that his ministers also lack the grunt to identify and pursue anything like the reforms needed to revitalise the economy. Inevitably, Abbott’s Government will be a failure on its own terms: it will not be able to deal with the fiscal and economic challenges that we face.
Labor can and should stand for a sense of national unity and inclusion – things the LNP by their values and their deeds are incapable of offering. Of course, to be credible, Labor have to show they are also unified and it follows they have to release themselves from the power struggles of the last few years.
Bolt and Chris Smith now on 2GB going apeshit over:
* The ABC,
* Stupid Greens, feel for Joe Hockey’s trap,
* Craig Thomson (aka “Geoff Thomson”, according to the prosecution) ALLEGEDLY enjoying the ALLEGED talents of ALLEGEDLY brothel workers, complete with “Geoff Thomson bowled maiden overs, while Craig Thomson bowled maidens over (boom-boom), much laughter and a featured performance “Rubby Ducky, I love you…” by the Muppets (presumably related to the “spa” connection in the story).
In the latter, every second word was allegedly, but the guffaws and sniggers were wall-to-wall.