BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. One of the points Bolt made about the ABC is that it is over-staffed to buggery.

    He cited FOUR television channels, three production and admin complexes and FIVE radio networks.

    He said Rupert Murdoch couldn’t possibly manage all that.

    I found myself shouting at the radio that Rupert can’t even run his newspapers at a profit. They’re sheltered workshops for cretins like Bolt, Shanahan, Kelly, Sloane and the drooling Sheridan.

    The cheek of these wankers criticising the ABC. I felt almost sorry for Tony Jones and Leigh Sales.

    Almost.

  2. 24 has a big ideas on.

    The Belvoir Theatre Director makes an interesting point. Theatre is one of the most wasteful things in existence. All that labour, intellectual effort and money spent on it.

    At the end you have no product. Visual artists at least have a painting. With theatre you only have memory.

    I like theatre for what it does. t does show however a different perspective on waste. So now we can say some waste is useful for society.

  3. BB

    It is difficult to feel sorry for the ABC after the way they sucked up to Murdoch and his lackies during the Labor years. This is the thanks they are getting for their efforts.
    Despite my frustration with the ABC, a healthy democracy needs a public broadcaster

  4. It’s impossible to put into context how Australia managed to elect TAPM without reflection on the three years of Leadershit. I expect we will contine to reflect for some time to come.

    To deny Leadershit is to sell the Aussie voter short on why they did what they did in September. Certainly it wasn’t the only reason but it sure was a dominant factor.

    I don’t blame anyone who voted for the Coalition. At one level it was a completely rational choice.

  5. vic

    The ABC is a national broadcaster and is not a tool of any one Party. They are taxpayer funded and are required to be balanced.

    They deliver quality broadcasting in my opinion.

  6. [ Despite my frustration with the ABC, a healthy democracy needs a public broadcaster ]

    Agreed. But it doesn’t need this particular public broadcaster.

    If it was up to me, I’d abandon the ABC and put the SBS into that role. It’s much more representative of modern Australia anyway. From the SBS Charter:

    [ The principal function of SBS is to provide multilingual and multicultural radio, television and digital media services that inform, educate and entertain all Australians and, in doing so, reflect Australia’s multicultural society. ]

    That seems to tick all the necessary boxes.

    Who needs that ABC? Let Murdoch have it – after all, he could only improve it from its current low ebb.

  7. davidwh
    Posted Thursday, December 5, 2013 at 12:59 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s impossible to put into context how Australia managed to elect TAPM without reflection on the three years of Leadershit. I expect we will contine to reflect for some time to come.

    To deny Leadershit is to sell the Aussie voter short on why they did what they did in September. Certainly it wasn’t the only reason but it sure was a dominant factor.

    I don’t blame anyone who voted for the Coalition. At one level it was a completely rational choice.

    A divided ALP still managed to produce and implement popular major social reforms (Gonski, NDIS, Aged Care…).

    People wrongly prioritised internal leadership struggles ahead of major reforms, in my opinion.

  8. MTBW agree. The ABC is the most balanced of all the media outlets. You get some perceived bias both ways but overall they are pretty good.

  9. mtbw

    It is a bit rich for Murdoch’s lackies and fhe coalition to complain about the ABC. This is from the mob that controls 70% of the media.

  10. “@KJBar: The Senate has passed a motion calling for all docs in relation to a reported asylum seeker towing operation near Xmas Is. on Nov 15.”

  11. [ The ABC is a national broadcaster and is not a tool of any one Party. ]

    Well, I guess that’s true – they are the tool of both the Liberal AND the National parties.

  12. g

    Probably the best element of the DAP will be to decommission brown coal power plants in the Latrobe Valley. The trick will be to ensure that the Government does not end up paying over the odds to kill dinosaurs.

    My guess would be that Hunt has spent a lot of time with industry people, has been planning this for some time, and will probably deliver on it.

    His biggest difficulty will be with soil carbon sequestration.

  13. [I like theatre for what it does. t does show however a different perspective on waste. So now we can say some waste is useful for society.]

    At uni, I had an avowed social democrat and parliamentary socialist lecturer who kept making the point that technical progress should increase the wages of labour (even if it is improvements in the productivity of capital that drives them), and that way, everyone could work 15 hours a week, and spend the rest of their time *wasting money* drinking good coffee (or beer), exchanging poetry (or going to boxing matches) and attending art galleries or the theatre (or the Annandale Hotel). That was his ideal end goal of socialist progress; produce enough and distribute it such that everyone could waste enough to enjoy life. Hard to argue with it (as a goal).

  14. davidwh

    And that is why I never watch commercial television and only watch the ABC channels and SBS.

    Vic

    With Murdoch and other private capital in the game what else would you expect.

  15. zoidlord I did what I said I would do a number of times in the two years leading up to the election. However I wasn’t all that happy either way.

  16. LU

    [That was his ideal end goal of socialist progress; produce enough and distribute it such that everyone could waste enough to enjoy life. Hard to argue with it (as a goal).]

    Sure, sure. The evironment as infinite source and infinite sump. It shows lefties can be as wrong as the reactionaries when it comes to thinking (or not thinking) about the environment.

  17. Rex Douglas

    I would have thought that Uhlmann would have had to be very careful with what he said given that his wife is in the Labor caucus.

    Kate Ellis is in the same position being married to David whatever his name is works for Murdoch.

  18. Turkeys
    [The bludgers all love the ABC again now it seems. Talk about backflips. What a bunch of goosekissers.]
    Within the space of a few posts it is demonstrated that there is no PB pattern of at first loathing, then loving the ABC :P.

  19. The other day I wondered what had happening to the deregulation of the race hate speech by way of amendments long promised by the Abbott Opposition in return for Bolt being such a servile and slavish sycophantic supporter of Abbott&Co.

    It does rather seem as if strong opposition from two jewish peak bodies has rather put a bit of a brake on progress.

  20. BW, I was talking about the use of “waste” in an ironic sense; that is, with respect to spending on entertainment and the arts, with reference to the Belvoir Theatre Director’s point.

  21. BW –

    Probably the best element of the DAP will be to decommission brown coal power plants in the Latrobe Valley.

    The ALP tried to do this, if you recall. I’m sure it was part of what the Greens negotiated into the clean energy future package.

    As I recall there was about $2 billion on the table for the government to negotiate with the brown coal power station operators to shut down production.

    Martin Ferguson was in charge of negotiations.

    He/the government reported that they couldn’t get any of the coal power station operators to agree to anything that was remotely cost effective.

    If the LNP do an equivalent deal, it will be an obscenely expensive way to reduce emissions.

  22. david
    [I don’t blame anyone who voted for the Coalition. At one level it was a completely rational choice.]
    That’d be the level that cares more for irrelevant personality contests than policy.

  23. I note that The Australian continues to pursue the AFL over the Essendon experiment with chemicals. Hird, Thomson, Reid and Corcoran are the victims. Hird is the scapegoat. Demetriou is cast as the evil manipulator.

    Demetriou continues to deny anything and everything and in a deft unicorn has pointed out that ASADA has yet to conclude its investigation of Essendon players.

  24. Boerwar

    THE Oz and Herald Sun have an agenda and it is to get at the heirarchy of fhe AFL. I actually reckon it has backfired. Hird is not endearing himself to the Essendon supporters and the footy public generally.

  25. BTW, it is doubtful that ASADA will conclude its investigations until it interview Danks. ASADA has power under the new Act that enables it force Danks to be interviewed. He has repeatedly said he wouldn’t answer any questions. So I guess that a High Court test, and a couple of years more of uncertainty, beckon.

  26. [As I recall there was about $2 billion on the table for the government to negotiate with the brown coal power station operators to shut down production…

    If the LNP do an equivalent deal, it will be an obscenely expensive way to reduce emissions.]

    Well, lignite is an obscenely dirty way to produce electricity. About 20% of Australian electricity is generated by burning lignite, and most of that comes out of four generators in Victoria (Hazelwood, Loy Yang A and B, and Yallourn). So maybe a relatively worthwhile way to spend the money, compared to, say, digging ash into the desert.

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