BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Psephos

    You could use the live minutes on the HOR website and listen to the cricket.

    Does have advantage you only have to read what you wish.

  3. Rummel:
    [All going well at COP 19 climate summit I see.

    Add to that the Australian deligation upsetting the green groups our trading partners by turning up in T shirts and much loud on snacks lol.]

    There is no valuable relationhip the coalition can’t screw up in record time.

  5. “@sspencer_63: Extraordinary stuff in the House. The Speaker is, quite literally, refusing to allow ALP Carbon Tax amendments to even be debated.”

  8. Patel gets two years suspended sentence. Judge sounds very unimpressed by Patel as a human being.

    [District Court Judge Terry Martin was scathing as he sentenced the former surgeon to two years’ jail, wholly suspended, for four counts of fraud.

    Judge Martin said the sentence brought to an end a “tragic” and “lengthy” chapter in Queensland history, which began when Patel fraudulently obtained medical registration and employment at Bundaberg in 2003.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/jayant-patel-avoids-jail-set-to-fly-to-us/story-e6frg6nf-1226765117916#sthash.8E3jr0xu.dpuf

  10. [249
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 12:58 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/246

    I see your not mentioning anything about Indonesia.]

    There is enough flapping going on here as it is without adding my two cents worth.

  14. [253
    Think Big
    Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 1:01 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel:

    All going well at COP 19 climate summit I see.

    Add to that the Australian deligation upsetting the green groups our trading partners by turning up in T shirts and much loud on snacks lol.

    There is no valuable relationhip the coalition can’t screw up in record time.]

    What your problem, we are leading the world on climate action, just what people wanted 🙂

  15. The bizarre thing about Textor’s comment is that there’s actually no such thing as a “1970s Filipino porn star”, because in the 1970s Marcos was in power and imposing a puritanical regime on the fun-loving Filipinos. What he seems to have meant was that Marty Natelagawa is an Asian man with a moustache.

  16. BH #261 – Bronnie’s new rules I guess. And too angry about the shutting down of debate.

    This is, I suppose, what Murdoch paid for.

  18. [The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has today re-affirmed the strong economic position inherited by the Coalition Government.
    It’s worth repeating and clearly placing on the record, the opening statements of the IMF on Australia’s economic performance:
    “Australia’s economy has performed favorably in recent years compared with other advanced economies with a track record of sustained growth, inflation close to target, a resilient financial sector, and public debt still low relative to other advanced countries.]

    http://www.chrisbowen.net/media-centre/allNews.do?newsId=6726

    Something for Bowen to put on the record today in QT. It’ll give Joe a chance to blowhard and bluster.

  20. From what I have seen, The poodle is basically assisting Bronnie at every step. She is a partisan useless hack of a speaker, and the only ones trashing the westminister system is them

  22. Textor is now denying he was referring to Marty or SBY with the porn comment. Hasn’t actually said who he was referring to. And of course he says it’s all been blown out of proportion.

  23. [This is, I suppose, what Murdoch paid for.]

    MM The old devil looks far too healthy for my liking. Seems to have his Mum’s genes … darn it.

  24. BH

    This is how the Grauniad reported it.

    [Now Labor is moving a dissent motion to the speaker’s ruling, during which Tony Burke impugns Bishop’s impartiality.

    Christopher Pyne helps Bishop, Burke objects.

    “Oh be quiet you buffoon”, says Pyne.

    Tony Burke says Bishop is not complying with the standing orders. Bishop asks for Burke to withdraw. How can I dissent your ruling if I can’t say you are wrong about the standing orders, asks Burke.

    Heading into the Twilight Zone. ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/21/tony-abbott-regrets-not-enough-as-indonesia-suspends-ties

  27. Diogenes

    It doesnt matter what textor says. Several of his tweets were offensive and it leaves no one in any doubt where his thinking was at. The damage has been done

  29. [Add to that the Australian deligation upsetting the green groups by turning up in T shirts and much loud on snacks lol.
    ]

    This would be the new adult government and it’s mature supporters.

  30. Dio

    Textor made reference to a filipinno porn star. Obviously referring to someone of Asian appearance. If it was not a reference to an indonesian official, who the heck was it a reference to?

  32. Shaw back in the firing line.

    Vic government again in big trouble.

    [Rogue Victorian MP Geoff Shaw’s future remains in doubt with a magistrate ruling he is not suitable for a diversion order over a charge of misusing his fuel card.

    The MP will now plead not guilty to the original 24 charges, which were on Wednesday rolled into one count of obtaining financial advantage through deception in the Melbourne Magistrates Court.

    The unexpected ruling means the Napthine government still hangs by a thread, with next year’s court ruling likely to decide if a critical by-election is held in Frankston. A guilty finding would force Mr Shaw from parliament.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/geoff-shaw-shock-court-rules-against-slap-on-wrist-20131121-2xx6j.html#ixzz2lF75hmVD

  38. poroti

    Thanks for the link. I’m watching the House (Live) on the PC and was surprised that nobody in the Chamber seemed to hear it.

    What a laugh Pyne is.

    [Rob Mitchell ‏@RobMitchellMP 16m
    Speaker makes ruling citing WE as in Govt Independence of chair gone]

  39. You could just see Pyne at school: the little fag running messages between the senior boys, and tittle-telling on boys he thought hadbeen naughty.

    He’s actually TELLING Bishop what to do.

  41. victoria

    A couple of mp’s using “social media” , I assume twitter, said things about Bronnie that Porky Pyne did not like. So he brought it to teachers attention.Turns out one was a retweet. Bronnie surprisingly relaxed. Well at least compared to the excited Pyne.

  42. [ And of course he says it’s all been blown out of proportion. ]

    … which funnily enough is exactly what the Filipino porn start said.

  47. What a piss poor excuse

    [Mark Textor
    Apologies to my Indonesian friends – frustrated by media-driven divisions – Twitter is indeed no place for diplomacy.]

  50. [Mark Textor
    Apologies to my Indonesian friends – frustrated by media-driven divisions – Twitter is indeed no place for diplomacy.]

    He can’t let it go, can he?.

    SBY used twitter.

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