BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

Comments Page 5 of 37
1 … 4 5 6 … 37

  5. [So they would not do this because it is a strategy that could really blow up in their faces.

    Oh… uh…]

    LoL! Yup like that will stop them. Unfortunatley we now have to get used to the fact that the current Aust Govt is run by idiot show-ponies well out of their depth.

  6. Andrew Leigh is a hard worker and doesn’t let an opportunity go by in correcting the Adult Govt’s financial frauds, Hockey and Cormann. He’s whizzed off a letter to the AFR today.

    [21 November 2103

    If you were to list the qualities of Treasurer Joe Hockey, it’s unlikely that ‘attention to detail’ would feature high on the list. So the Treasurer’s claim of a ‘secret Labor plan’ to cut public service jobs (“The real scope of Labor’s deceit coming to light’, AFR, 20 November) should raise an eyebrow or two.

    Before the election, Mr Hockey was claiming that Labor had left Australia with a bloated public service. Misleadingly, he alleged that the public service had grown by 20,000, when in fact the real figure was closer to 8,000. In terms of public servants per head of population, our public service is about the same size today as it was in 2007.]

    http://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=5260

  8. Here’s Tony’s response (my guess) to the tweet

    “Mark is an emotional person whose heart is in the right place and he is a very loyal Australian. Sometimes he gets carried away with his expressions and I am sure that when he reflects, he will find that his words might not have been the most appropriate.”

    that’s it!!

  11. Dio

    [BW

    I doubt they will get the repeal through parliament. That’s an awful lot of minorities to piss off.]

    Opening minorities to outrageous verbal bastardry by the shock jocks is Brandis’ most urgent and most important task. It is payoff to the likes of Bold, Jones and Hadley.

    Why would the Anglobubble suddently give a rat’s arse what minorities think? Like, if they don’t like it, they can all piss off back where they came from.

  12. badcat

    Midday Report just had footage of an Indonesian warplane flying back to Indonesia, having been pulled out of some joint military exercise in, I believe, the NT.

  14. [Not to mention 40 years of AusAid work now rolled into DFAT.]

    That was really sending a bad message. Aid firmly under the thumb of Mesma? Not a good look.

  15. mexicanbeemer@160

    Bemused makes an interesting point, the state seat of Macedon is now vacant, shift either Kaye Darveniza or Candy Board into Macedon or into the now vacant upper house seat in Eastern Victoria by the sounds of things Matt Viney is unwell so maybe he might be open to vacating sooner.

    Candy Broad was mentioned on Jon Faine’s program this morning as being one of those likely to be retiring.

    Apparently about a dozen ALP State Members will probably retire at the election.

    This presents a good opportunity for renewal and fresh blood.

  16. Andrew Leigh is a gem. Knows his stuff and is personable to boot. Early days I thought he was a little too nice in his one on ones with the feral libs but he has developed a bit of toughness which is great to see.
    Our own Paul Krugman.
    He will make a bloody good treasurer one day.

  19. [Cancelled

    – Dawn Komodo – anti-hijack exercise involving SAS and Kopassus

    – Elang Ausindo – air combat training over the Top End

    Postponed

    – Hercules handover at RAAF Williamtown

    Going ahead

    – Rhino Ausindo – motorised military exercise in Indonesia

    – Chiefs of Navy and Air Force visits to Indonesia]

    [In a statement the office of the Defence Minister David Johnson said: “Any cancellation or postponement of Defence engagement activities would be regrettable.”]

    ‘Would be’ No ‘Is’

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-21/cancelled-military-exercises/5107566

  21. Over the last few days I have listened to a bit of the debate over the Carbon Tax repeal but can’t recall any LNP ministers putting forward any argument in support of the bill other than an economic one.

    I might be wrong but if so it speaks volumes for the lack of independent thought within the Coalition.

  26. Dear Susilo

    Thank you for your letter of only yesterday in which draw attention to Australian spying on the conversations of your good wife and myself.

    Although I am doing implausible deniability on the spying stuff, I take this opportunity to say that I trust that your prostrate and related sexual performance issues have improved, that the gall stones have gone away, and that Ila’s menopause symptoms have settled down a bit. The latter can be a bit of a bugger, as Margie would be the first to tell you.

    You sought a full explanation. Here goes.

    I refer you to some specific public utterances by myself and Australia’s Foreign Minister, Ms Bishop. As you would probably have noted, Ms Bishop opined that what Indonesia actually thought about our illegal maritime arrival suppression programs and polices, was irrelevant. We would just implement the policies anyway. As for me, I can never get enough of saying that our relationship is good and getting better. Indeed, it is much, much better than when those Labor wackoes wrecked the joint.

    We have not publicly resiled from those public utterances. But, always remember, we have deep respect for Indonesia.

    You have made it perfectly clear that the boat buy back, boat tow back and boat turn back policies get right up your nose. Tough titty. We don’t resile from any of those. But, always remember, we have deep respect for Indonesia.

    As for the spying stuff, they are only ‘allegations’ and ‘newspaper reports’. That being the case, my advice to you is not to get your sarong in a knot. But, always remember, we have deep respect for Indonesia.

    Now, I know that you have probably been informed that I run with a burka-bashing mob of islamophobes – those sorts of people. It is perfectly true. In fact we have in the House and in the Senate. Let me just assure you that they mean well.

    Indeed we just recently have had one of our key strategists noting the resemblance between your Foreign Minister and an ‘Pilipino’ porn star. How he knows what Pilipino porn stars look like, I don’t know, but you have to assume that they are well-hung. In that case your foreign minister should be happy with my mate Textor’s glowing reference. And if does not, tough titty. But always remember, we have deep respect for Indonesia.

    You have asked for a full explanation. I have done my best and trust that the above suffices.

    Yours very, very, very respectfully

    Tony Abbott
    Prime Minister of Australia.

  27. Hmmm now why does it look like that shaw was trying to stooge the prosecution into some type of deal

    [A magistrate has rejected a bid by Victorian MP Geoff Shaw to avoid a conviction over the misuse of his parliamentary fuel card.

    The Liberal-turned-independent won’t be placed on diversion.

    Lawyers for the Frankston MP, who holds the balance of power in the lower house, have told the Melbourne Magistrates Court he will now plead not guilty to the charges.

    Prosecutors say they now plan to reinstate the original charges.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/vic-mp-geoff-shaw-wont-get-diversion-20131121-2xx4l.html

  30. [ wrecking 40 years of work by previous governments of all parties.]

    imacca Mesma holding the purse strings is a worry. Ausaid is so important to us especially as a lightly populated country at the bottom of the world.

    Henry I hope I’m still around to see Leigh as Treasurer. He’s top dog.

    Gawd, Bronnie’s a pain of a speaker.

  38. BW

    Even if the Libs support it, it has to pass the Senate. Labor and the Greens won’t support it and I doubt PUP will either as I’ve noticed he has quite racially diverse candidates.

Comments Page 5 of 37
1 … 4 5 6 … 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *