BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Now that Mr Textor’s tweets have made the front pages of the Indonesian press, Mr Abbott should be moving immediately to terminate any Liberal Party relationship with him or his organisation. Failing to do so will send a clear signal to the Indonesians that Mr Abbott cares less about Australia’s most important international relationship than about his relationship with someone who has come out with some very nasty opinions. This is quite distinct from any issues of bipartisanship on intelligence matters: the ALP should be going for the jugular on this.

  6. That Mark Textor, what a big fat EGG headed numbskull.

    Porn Star?

    Give me your twitter account and I’ll show you how to offend your neighbours you little soft cock wimp!

    And Abbott, Apologise to those people?

    That’s like a monarch saying sorry to a peasant!

    Popcorn 🙂

  7. Melissa Clarke seems genuinely quite excited about the carbon tax repeal bill passing the HoR. For a young person one might assume she would be a bit more sceptical.

  9. fredex

    Nothing apart from……………..

    [”What sort of head of state communicates with a head of a neighbouring government by twitter FFS? SBY”.]

    and

    [”Maybe SBY uses some sort of weird-ass ancient calendar”.]

    and

    [”Last time I looked no Indonesians were ever bombed in Australia.” ]

    and

    [”Apology demanded from Australia by a bloke who looks like a 1970s Pilipino [sic] porn star and has ethics to match,” #Fairfax demands appeasement”]

  10. Bemused makes an interesting point, the state seat of Macedon is now vacant, shift either Kaye Darveniza or Candy Board into Macedon or into the now vacant upper house seat in Eastern Victoria by the sounds of things Matt Viney is unwell so maybe he might be open to vacating sooner.

  13. If Abbott was smart, he’d cut Textor loose and make an example of him. If he wimps out again, the Indonesians will be even more furious.

  16. [If Abbott was smart, he’d cut Textor loose and make an example of him. If he wimps out again, the Indonesians will be even more furious.]

    He’d be wimping out by kissing Indonesia’s arse.

    Just ignore our corrupt, poverty stricken hellhole to the north who are in bed with the people smugglers would be my message.

  17. [Melissa Clarke seems genuinely quite excited about the carbon tax repeal bill passing the HoR. For a young person one might assume she would be a bit more sceptical.]

    For a journo, one might assume she would also be a bit more impartial!

    but this is the same journo who referred to the Coalition as “us” in the 2010 campaign…

  18. Sean 166

    Is the most native comment i have ever read here.

    -Indonesia is the second fastest growing economy in the G20
    -Indonesia has GDP growth above 5%
    -Indonesia has 50% of its population under the age of 29
    -Indonesia is the third fastest growing economy in Asia behind China & India
    -Indonesia may have poverty but so does Australia.

    All the Indonesians have asked for is a phone call from Tone to clear up why the spying occurred, surely that isn’t too hard

    And if anyone is kissing the Indonesians it is Tone as he needs them to stop the boats.

  20. zoomster@165

    ST’s proof:

    [Some old crank they found wandering around the Sydney Fish markets (an obvious Abbott supporter) says the Marine Parks are over the top, backed up by a couple of so called ‘scientists’.]

    I haven’t the time or inclination to dig up the vast amount of support that Burke’s proposal received.

  24. Could the offense caused by Abbott spread to other Asian nations? I mean could other Asian nations side over this?

    If they do, the Monkey is finished…I guarantee it first term or not 😎

  28. Centre

    There is some danger of that occurring, this story has received some coverage across the region but where it matters i image it is being discussed.

    We only need to look to the recent past to see how business leaders have urged governments to have good relationships with other nations.

  34. [Psphos
    It must be genetic.]

    But they didn’t use to be like this. Howard and Downer, or Fraser and Street, whatever one thought of their policies, didn’t make these clumsy and stupid mistakes. I think it’s a product of the “TeaPartyisation” of the Liberal Party. They’ve allowed themselves to become a xenophobic sect, which is very dumb in a country which badly needs good relations with the emerging world powers in our region.

  38. [PROTESTERS in the Indonesian city of Yogyakarta are burning Australian flags over the presidential phone tapping scandal.

    The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade says it also expects a rally outside the Australian embassy in Jakarta on Thursday, advising visitors to avoid the protest and “maintain high levels of vigilance and security awareness”.]

    [ttp://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/11/21/589783_latest-news.html

    Hey, well done, Adult Government.

  40. dave

    [The easy way out for abbott, that he must be very tempted to use –

    “I apologise for the previous Government’s spying on Indonesia and its President and wife.

    My Government will ensure such activities do not re-occur”.

    Only a matter of time….]

    They were clearly headed in that direction. But the problem is that Snowden still has around 1.99 million documents, some of which will indirectly implicate Abbott as senior minister in the Howard Governmet or directly implicate Abbott since he became Prime Minister.

    So they would not do this because it is a strategy that could really blow up in their faces.

    Oh… uh…

  41. mexican

    [the state seat of Macedon is now vacant, shift either Kaye Darveniza or Candy Board into Macedon ]

    Candy Broad announced her retirement from politics yesterday.

  42. If any Australians get hurt in these protests, or indeed any other politically motivated violence in Indonesia then Abbott needs to be shafted by his own side. Our relationship with Indonesia is bad and getting worse, it happened on Abbotts watch and was entirely preventable. He needs to own it.

  43. [I hope the burn an Abbott effigy.]

    It’s us who ought to be doing that, in recognition of Abbott’s feat in ruining Australia’s most important regional relationship in only three months, wrecking 40 years of work by previous governments of all parties.

  44. Bolt wants the freedom to slag minorities.

    The minorities want the freedom not to be slagged by Bolt.

    The anglobubble Liberals are going to give Bolt the freedom to slag minorities.

  45. Pyne advising Australians to be cautious when travelling to Indonesia.

    I assume this is because Australian travellers might ruin an already good relationship which is getting better.

  46. [I think it’s a product of the “TeaPartyisation” of the Liberal Party. They’ve allowed themselves to become a xenophobic sect, which is very dumb in a country which badly needs good relations with the emerging world powers in our region.]

    Psephos & BK Well said. Sending Bernardi and Cormann to talk to the Tea Party wasn’t such a clever idea.

    Perhaps being so negative and meanspirited in Opposition means they can no longer think logically.

  49. Guytaur and others- re carbon; as you may have seen, in the reps debate on monday Dr Andrew Leigh gave a terrific rollcall of previous Liberal member statements in favour of an ETS. Even Morrison!

    The fact that many of them actually know better makes it all the more reprehensible …

  50. CTaR1

    Pyne was probably trying to deal delicately in light of the original Indonesian response to DFAT’s formal warning on security in Bali.

    Not.

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