Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)

Morgan finds Labor drawing level with the Coalition, although Bill Shorten shouldn’t go measuring the drapes at The Lodge quite yet. The return of your favourite poll aggregate finds no change on the election result.

Morgan published its fortnightly poll yesterday, which for whatever reason was limited to face-to-face and SMS polling, excluding its usual online component. This caused the sample size to come in at 2077, about 1000 short of the usual. The preponderance of face-to-face polling in the result might help explain the poll’s unusually weak showing for the Coalition, who are down two points on the primary vote to 41.5%. Labor and the Greens are each up half a point, to 35% and 10.5%, with the Palmer United Party up a point to 5.5%. The only meaningful two-party figure provided by Morgan is respondent-allocated, which at 50-50 is much as it would have been with a preference distribution based on the recent election.

An aberrant poll result marks an auspicious occasion for BludgerTrack to return to the sidebar, fresh from its almost-accurate projection of state seat totals at the federal election. Bias and accuracy measures have been freshly recalibrated, and a preference allocation model implemented which accounts for the Palmer United Party’s share of the “others” vote. There are currently only 14 polling data points in the mix (and only five with specific numbers for the Palmer United Party), including eight from Essential, four from Morgan and one each from Newspoll and ReachTEL. This is to say there is a paucity of live interview phone polling, which was again the best performing method at the election. At present the trend seems to be one of stability in the first month and Labor decline in the second, but the disturbance to the stability comes down entirely the Newspoll result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,094 comments on “Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)”

Comments Page 3 of 42
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  1. Week 1 of parliament is out of Labor’s control. This because of the issues the LNP is serving up on a platter.

    Carbon Pricing. Repeal Legislation.
    More like we have seen on Foreign Affairs from Plibersek.
    Reverse Robin Hood to fix non existent budget emergency

  2. Victoria

    [Although it could be argued that the intention was to ensure that the PUP candidate lost out……]

    More likely though, the PUP folk might have done it to taint the vote, since they’ve been alleging AEC malfeasance fromn the start.

  3. “@SenatorWong: Liberal priorities: tax breaks for 16K high income earners with 2 million in super & a tax hike for 3.6m Aussies on less than $37,000/yr.”

  4. Fran

    I dont see why the Pup party would themselves tamper with votes and in turn lose the senate seat to prove a point about the AEC. Does not pass the commonsense test

  5. Fran and Victoria

    Look for someone new before looking at individuals or parties who have done elections before with no problems like this.

  6. Acting Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek today said lack of Government action was hindering recovery and clean-up operations. These are the areas the Government had nominated as priorities.
    ===================================

    Where’s action man Abbott? No photo op so no desire to do anything?

  9. vic,

    Lots of sustained pressure over COL issues.

    Lib broken promises and lies will also be fertile ground.

    “Secret squirrel” Government. Labor to demonstrate the Coalition has too maany nuts.

  10. Bill Shorten spent a few days in the Blue Mountains with Doug Cameron during the worst of the fires, doing the things the PM should have been doing but just couldn’t be bothered with. Trivia like getting a fair deal for people told they had to pay Optus a disconnect fee when their phone lines were burnt out. Trivial stuff like trying to get financial assistance for people Abbott decided weren’t worth helping. Nothing much, really…….just some stuff the government should have been doing and wouldn’t.

    Abbott managed to find time in his busy schedule of lolling by the pool at Forestville(he still hasn’t decided where he will live now he’s PM) to launch a yacht at Rose Bay yesterday. He waffled on about how he’s always wanted to be in the Sydney to Hobart race and then walked off, refusing to answer questions from journalists. He did say he hadn’t read Howard’s climate change speech, then his staff told the journos that was ‘enough’. Nice to know he has his priorities in order – sucking up to rich yachties is top of his to-do list. So much more fun than reading boring speeches and reports and stuff.

  12. [AussieAchmed

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Where’s action man Abbott? No photo op so no desire to do anything?
    ]
    ————————————————–

    PM’s very busy running the country: Hockey

    TREASURER Joe Hockey has defended Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s low profile since the September election, saying his boss is “flat out” running the country.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/pms-very-busy-running-the-country-hockey/story-e6frfku9-1226754739579

  17. badcat

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Where’s action man Abbott? No photo op so no desire to do anything?

    ————————————————–

    PM’s very busy running the country: Hockey
    =================================================

    PM’s very busy running from the country is what I reckon he meant

  20. How should Labor proceed during the sitting of Parliament in the next fortnight?

    Rorts, provided Labor are reasonably clean in that area.

    Robbing from the poor to give to the rich

    Carbon price lies – prices won’t come down when the price is abolished

  22. [PM’s very busy running the country]

    It makes a refreshing change to Make a big announcement then trying to work out the details.

    Work out the details first then make the announcements.

  25. Did anyone see the fuller clip of Abbott launching that yacht yesterday.

    At one point he was asked would he like to be in the Sydney-Hobart race.

    He said yes and then proceeded with probly the most crass, disgusting comment I’ve heard from him.

    In a mocking and sarcastic tone he said that if he participated they’d all be asking who paid his plane fare back from Hobart?

    As I read my words about this I am frustrated that mere words on a white background can not convey the nuances in his words and the total disrespect for taxpayers money, and the total dismissal of any ethics about entitlement claims he clearly communicated.

    He was talking of course to reps from the big end of town who “play” the sport of big yacht racing, and he knew he was amongst friends. So his vile words were accompanied by his arrogant guffawing at his own “joke”.

    My OH and I were simply apalled. The only joke is the man hisself.

  26. I’ve not only been told that the ACCC has been running operational losses for the last four years, I’ve been advised that this financial year – because the previous government didn’t give it any money – the ACCC will run out of money in April,” Mr Hockey told ABC radio on Thursday.
    ===========================

    Looking at Treasury documents – someone’s not telling the truth about the former Govt funding

  30. psychlaw,

    Appears Abbott is only in favour of holding government to account and ruthless scrutiny when it’s him and his side doing the scruting!

    Abbott might make Parliamentary question time a must see for him losing his discipline and temper. Cranky Tony could be a TV star.

  31. Sean – knock it off with criticising Shorten being on Holiday.

    I question his judgement of announcing support for keeping the CO2 Tax and then going on holiday.

    But we are all entitled to our holidays – they are important for a wide range of reasosn.

    I’m suprised that all politicians and the political media don’t take a week off almost immediately post election.

  33. [ TREASURER Joe Hockey has defended Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s low profile since the September election, saying his boss is “flat out” running the country. ]

    Flat out running away from reporters, more like.

  34. Sean Tisme

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    Link? Evidence?

    BOF just said so at the presser
    ========================================

    Based on my search – he’s lying

  36. Victoria

    [I have not formed a view of who may have been involved in tampering these ballots]

    Nor have I, but I am very confident my party would not have been involved and the PUP crowd seem like the best candidates for it to me. Even putting aside the criminal dishonesty involved, nobody from our side could have believed that Ludlum or our party would benefit from this. And as I said to Psephos the other night if someone in our orbit facilitated it in some way, then I’m for them being excluded from working with us ever again.

    The obvious beneficiary here is Clive Palmer, who gets to show that his allegations of malfeasance weren’t simply idle huffing and puffing.

    That doesn’t prove he is guilty of doing this of course. Perhaps someone thought they were helping him. Providing that person doesn’t get caught, they will be right.

  37. Kakuru

    [Flat out running away from reporters, more like.]

    I think the common expression is flat out like a lizard drinking — which seems apt here for some reason.

  39. Psyclaw

    [In a mocking and sarcastic tone he said that if he participated they’d all be asking who paid his plane fare back from Hobart?]

    And we’d be entitled to do so. I don’t see the joke. Oops … yes I do. Carry on …

  40. guytaur

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Unemployment rises to 5.7% with big fall in full time unemployment and a fall in participation rate.
    =================================================

    This can’t be right, can it?

    The Abbott Govt are telling us “Australia is open for business” (like it was ever closed) and that business confidence is booming.

    I would have thought these tings would see an increase in employment not unemployment.

    Another Abbott failure.

  41. [ In a mocking and sarcastic tone he said that if he participated they’d all be asking who paid his plane fare back from Hobart?]

    Comedy gold. Who needs a PM who runs the country, when we can all appreciate this schtick.

    He also does weddings. Just as Slipper and Mirabella.

  42. Australia snubs global climate talks, as Greg Hunt stays home to repeal carbon tax

    AUSTRALIA will be represented by a diplomat rather than a senior minister at international climate talks in Poland next week aimed at securing an agreement to cut global carbon emissions.

    Environment Minister Greg Hunt won’t attend the annual Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting, saying he’ll be busy repealing the carbon tax in the first fortnight of parliament.

    – See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/australia-snubs-global-climate-talks-as-greg-hunt-stays-home-to-repeal-carbon-tax/story-e6frg6xf-1226754823154#sthash.nLyIZv8B.dpuf

  44. He also does weddings. Just as Slipper and Mirabella.

    and Joyce and JBishop.

    Taxpayers pay for weddings, parties- anything that gets the Liberals dipping into the trough

  45. badcat

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Australia snubs global climate talks, as Greg Hunt stays home to repeal carbon tax
    ====================================

    He’ll be content with reading about it on Wikipedia…the sauce of all Liberal knowledge

  46. zoidlord

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    @AA/140

    Exactly, what about those 2 million jobs he pledged during the election?

    What a failure of this goverment.
    ========================================

    We don’t have 2 million unemployed – yet.

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