Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)

Morgan finds Labor drawing level with the Coalition, although Bill Shorten shouldn’t go measuring the drapes at The Lodge quite yet. The return of your favourite poll aggregate finds no change on the election result.

Morgan published its fortnightly poll yesterday, which for whatever reason was limited to face-to-face and SMS polling, excluding its usual online component. This caused the sample size to come in at 2077, about 1000 short of the usual. The preponderance of face-to-face polling in the result might help explain the poll’s unusually weak showing for the Coalition, who are down two points on the primary vote to 41.5%. Labor and the Greens are each up half a point, to 35% and 10.5%, with the Palmer United Party up a point to 5.5%. The only meaningful two-party figure provided by Morgan is respondent-allocated, which at 50-50 is much as it would have been with a preference distribution based on the recent election.

An aberrant poll result marks an auspicious occasion for BludgerTrack to return to the sidebar, fresh from its almost-accurate projection of state seat totals at the federal election. Bias and accuracy measures have been freshly recalibrated, and a preference allocation model implemented which accounts for the Palmer United Party’s share of the “others” vote. There are currently only 14 polling data points in the mix (and only five with specific numbers for the Palmer United Party), including eight from Essential, four from Morgan and one each from Newspoll and ReachTEL. This is to say there is a paucity of live interview phone polling, which was again the best performing method at the election. At present the trend seems to be one of stability in the first month and Labor decline in the second, but the disturbance to the stability comes down entirely the Newspoll result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,094 comments on “Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)”

Comments Page 4 of 42
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  2. “@ABCNews24: Chairman of cyber security company @Kaspersky Lab @e_kaspersky will address the National Press Club today at 12:30pm AEDT.”

  3. While our minister opposed to the environment hunt skips an important international meeting to stay in Australia and destroy our carbon price Mexico has passed it’s national carbon tax and the states of Oregon and Washington have agrees to place a price on carbon.

    Out of step, going the wrong way – ignorant. What a terrible government.

  4. GG @138

    Have I ever claimed to be unbiased?

    I am very aware of my biases.

    Shorten’s decision to announce they are goign to block repeal of the CO2 Tax and then leave the field of battle is unfathomable – they are committing themselves to opposing the Coalition Manadate.

  5. [ Boerwar

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    Did Hockey really say that Abbott was flat on his back running the country?
    ]

    ————————————————

    Not quite :

    TREASURER Joe Hockey has defended Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s low profile since the September election, saying his boss is “flat out” running the country.

  6. Labor will simply follow Abbott’s lead on mandates

    Dr Nelson is right to resist the intellectual bullying inherent in talk of ‘mandates’.”: Tony Abbott, 2007.

  7. The article turning up in the West which mentions William and his comments about the number-crunchers was here maybe a week ago?

    If anyone wants some kind of benchmark on how late and how irrelevant the pulp media have become in relation to “news” items, this is as good as any.

    What? Five days ago?

    No wonder the West is down to 177,000 circulation a day – other than Saturday – and in a town where it has no other paper competing with it.

    It will not be long before daily papers are given away as the suburban ones are.

  9. Just like Abbott accepted the mandate to introduce an ETS after the 2007 election.

    hahahaha

    Anyone saying that Labor are bound by a Liberal mandate are just hypocrites

  11. Tricot

    That process will happen faster now with the free WiFi. No need for coffee shops and the like to provide free newspapers anymore.

  12. @CC/154

    Well considering that Abbott didn’t get Senate control, I say they didn’t get a mandate.

    @Tricot/158

    Not suprising.

    They are called Old Media for a reason.

  16. CC,

    What more than Labor is going to oppose the repeal of the Carbon Tax unless their is a cost effective solution (An ETS) to replace it don’t you understand.

    I know this going to break your tiny heart, but the mandate theory is bunkum. Tony Abbott told us. So, it must be true.

  18. guytaur

    Kick myself every time I read the name Kaspersky. When I first went online Kaspersky was recommended by a computer magazine. However payment was via money order or cash to Kaspersky himself . The address was at the Kremlin !!!!! A receipt from the Kremlin would have been a cool souvenir but Russia was in the middle of its melt down. So sending money to Russia did not seem too good an idea. A couple of months later I decided to take the plunge but the bugger had shifted to a normal address. Gone was a chance to get a receipt from the Kremlin.

    I’ve always wondered what he did for the Russian government.

  20. [ poroti

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    guytaur

    Kick myself every time I read the name Kaspersky
    ]

    —————————————————–

    Not quite as ‘colourful’ as that other anti-virus software man John McAfee.

    Sex, drugs, guns, murder and internet billionaire John McAfee on the run

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/sex-drugs-guns-murder-and-internet-billionaire-john-mcafee-on-the-run/story-fnjwmwrh-1226751939730

  21. Microsoft and others slamming the Non-NBN

    Business groups and power providers all saying prices won’t drop with the repeal of the carbon price.

    Media noticing Liberal plans to take from the poor to give to the wealthy

    Where were they before the election?

    They are now saying what many of us were saying before the election.

  22. [ AussieAchmed

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    Microsoft and others slamming the Non-NBN

    Business groups and power providers all saying prices won’t drop with the repeal of the carbon price.

    Media noticing Liberal plans to take from the poor to give to the wealthy

    Where were they before the election?

    They are now saying what many of us were saying before the election.
    ]

    ———————————————–

    ….. because Poll Bludger is so avant-garde 🙂

  25. “@SenatorWong: The Coalition have to manufacture their very own “budget emergency” for political reasons. An irresponsible and deeply cynical strategy.”

  26. Bill de Blasio shows what a “thumping win” or “mandate” is by winning NY Mayoral race 73-24% on a progressive agenda. Makes a 53-47% win look like some one got lucky.

  27. “@AshGhebranious: Oh dear! Some security guy talking about how you need a real internet infrastructure. Assuming Abbott to flat out to notice #NPC #auspol”

  28. mikehilliard

    [Bill de Blasio shows what a “thumping win” or “mandate” is by winning NY Mayoral race 73-24% on a progressive agenda.]

    Just as well Murdoch tipped that bucket of anti-communist bile on him. Apparently that convinced people that he really wasn’t a creature of Wall St and hurt him a lot.

    😉

  29. “@annajhenderson: Cyber security expert @e_kaspersky says Govt Depts responsible for national security and defence are “scared to death” #npl #auspol”

  31. hunt is such a weasel he is too ashamed to go to these talks.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/australia-snubs-global-climate-talks-as-greg-hunt-stays-home-to-repeal-carbon-tax/story-e6frg6xf-1226754823154#mm-breached

    if the WA senate election is held, what time of the year will it be? I hope WA fries between now and then and we see more record heat waves.

    I hope the international community condemn Australia and push them to have higher targets – indirect inaction cannot even get a 5% reduction by 2020, so hopefully a 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 gets push so weasel-boy and his master are even more exposed over this bullshit.

  32. Badcat

    Thanks – too sad to think about really. You know what I think about faux patriotism.

    Our conservative friends are into this flag waving junk for war at the cost of too many young lives.

  33. FEDERAL POLITICS
    7 Nov 2013
    Hockey’s Bluster Will Come Back To Haunt Him
    By Ben Eltham

    [If the nation really has a “budget emergency”, for instance, why would the government be giving the Reserve Bank a cool $8.8 billion to top up its slush fund? The Reserve Bank’s job is to keep prices stable and to maximise employment. Exactly why it needs a big war chest to finance its transactions is anyone’s guess. The grant could be described as an accounting adjustment, to allow the Reserve Bank to purchase more government bonds. Wayne Swan has said that in his briefings with the RBA, the grant wasn’t needed. So why is it needed now? Hockey has made no effort to explain.]

    https://newmatilda.com//2013/11/07/hockeys-bluster-will-come-back-haunt-him

  34. Badcat

    Apropos WW1, my favourite movie – if favourite is the apt word, was one called “Oh What a Lovely War!”. A savage anti-war film, about WW1, but most potent at the time of the Vietnam conflict.

    The saddest scene was that of hundreds of young men on a green hill side slowly melded into becoming the red poppies of Flanders.

    What a bloody waste and all about kings, queens and emperors and dying for King and Country.

    I am no pacifist but neither am I with that gung-ho lot which wants to put on uniforms, wave flags all the in the name of patriotism.

    Armaments and the money spent on them are a necessary evil as far as I am concerned.

    It is said that the millions of shells fired by British artillery in WW1 – or at least the cost of their manufacture, actually bankrupted the British.

    The result for the survivors was to come home to a “Land Fit for Heroes” – not.

  35. [ Tricot

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    Badcat

    Apropos WW1, my favourite movie – if favourite is the apt word, was one called “Oh What a Lovely War!”. A savage anti-war film, about WW1, but most potent at the time of the Vietnam conflict.
    ]

    Agreed – was a very emotional movie – very potent.

    I have said before – if you can find the 1959 Original ( some UK dealers on eBay have it – just NOT the remake ) Bernard Wicki movie – The Bridge ( Die Bruke )

    A group of German boys is ordered to protect a small bridge in their home village during the waning months of the second world war. Truckloads of defeated, cynical Wehrmacht soldiers flee the approaching American troops, but the boys, full of enthusiasm for the “blood and honor” Nazi ideology, stay to defend the useless bridge.

    Just leaves one traumatised ….

  36. [
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    Bill de Blasio shows what a “thumping win” or “mandate” is by winning NY Mayoral race 73-24% on a progressive agenda.
    ]
    Perhaps there is a lesson in there for Labor.

  38. Sust Future #181

    Quite right.

    Hunt is so weaselly and insipid and slinks around like a bad smell spouting garbage.

    There is no doubt that the average minister / rep from any other country would, having seen n heard him backpeddling, have the same private thoughts I described Dr Natalegawa having when observing BIshopJ “what a mob of dumbarses these Aussie voters musy be if they entrust themselves to such palpaple farkwit lightweights as these”.

    The nation’s international reputation will be enhanced the more Hunt stays at home.

  39. Badcat – agreed about “The Bridge”. Another such is one called “The Long Day’s Dying” – similar vignette of war while small group of Germans face off against a similar number of Tommies.

    While the shock value of “Saving Private Ryan” cannot be ignored, these more nuanced movies – “The Bridge” as you mention and “The Long Day’s Dying” say more to me.

  41. Tricot

    Posted Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    Badcat – agreed about “The Bridge”. Another such is one called “The Long Day’s Dying” – similar vignette of war while small group of Germans face off against a similar number of Tommies.

    While the shock value of “Saving Private Ryan” cannot be ignored, these more nuanced movies – “The Bridge” as you mention and “The Long Day’s Dying” say more to me.
    ]

    —————————————————-

    Yes – agreed – the first 30 minutes of Private Ryan is as bloody and gory as I am sure the bloodbath on Omaha beach really was – many vets could not watch it.

    However as you say there is another side to the other movies you mentioned – not bloody or gory – but the sheer inanity of what war is like – to the boys on the bridge it seemed like a big game – till the bullets started flying – similarly like the last part of the aussie classic ‘Gallipoli’ …..

  42. zoid

    1. Solar by itself is far more expensive than emissions savings via a carbon price. Although it has the capacity to reduce emissions, it is mainly effective at the household level. Households aren’t big emitters (for example, one local – although admittedly big – factory, emits as much carbon as 44,000 houses).

    A focus on solar alone – or on household reductions alone – ignores the real problems which need to be tackled.

    2. Carbon pricing drives the uptake and development of solar and other technologies. It’s not an either/or situation.

    3. Solar’s greatest potential is as a larger than household level electricity producer – that is, units which power neighbourhoods rather than single households. This needs the sort of co ordination that comes from drivers such as carbon pricing.

    4. The increase in efficiency of solar panels, which has led to the greater uptake, is due to the use of rare metals. There’s only a finite supply of these, which will limit the growth of solar.

  44. zoomster

    Solar farms are the closest to using existing electric grid we have.

    New Film types you can just paint on windows are being developed as well.

  45. Psephos @190

    My guess:

    There are 4 ALP seats within a margin of 2% in Victoria (plus several more in the 2-5% range), and no coalition seats within 3% (and the ones within 3-5% will pick up a sophomore surge). So even though the overall vote moves towards the ALP slightly, the model simulates that on average the seat-by-seat variability will knock off one of the close ALP seats.

  46. @zoomster/192

    I see you missed the point “while forcing energy producers to change energy”.

    Coal will also run out, it’s not an infinite supply of it.

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