| # | % | Swing | 2PP (proj.) | Swing | |
| Murray Scott (Greens) | 1,729 | 4.3% | -4.0% | ||
| Lisa Walters (Independent) | 825 | 2.1% | |||
| Barry Collier (Labor) | 18,504 | 46.5% | 24.1% | 55.3% | 26.3% |
| George Capsis (CDP) | 2,791 | 7.0% | 3.4% | ||
| Brett Thomas (Liberal) | 15,567 | 39.1% | -22.0% | 44.7% | -26.3% |
| John Brett (Independent) | 328 | 0.8% | -3.9% | ||
| FORMAL/TURNOUT | 39,744 | 81.7% | |||
| Informal | 812 | 2.0% | -0.7% | ||
| Booths reporting: | 18 out of 18 | ||||
Sunday
Some morning-after observations on this remarkable result.
• The O’Farrell government appears to have pulled off a worse by-election swing than any suffered by Labor in its final term, the currently projected 26.3% swing comparing with 25.7% in Penrith, 23.1% in Ryde and 21.8% in Cabramatta. In the government’s defence, the comedown from the 2011 landslide is off an enormously higher base than Labor’s modest re-election in 2007. Some insight into this is provided by the 16.3% swing Labor picked up in November 2011, just nine months after the O’Farrell government was elected, at a by-election for the rural seat of Clarence. This passed largely unremarked at the time, as the Nationals retained the seat by a margin of 15.1%.
• It would be fascinating to know the precise impact of Labor’s polling booth volunteers from the Fire Brigade Employees Union, who looked for all the world like they had come direct from the front line but for t-shirts reading “stop O’Farrell’s fire station closures” and “firefighters say put the Liberals last”. The union had been using the campaign to castigate the government over the state of local fire services, so the coincidence of the by-election with the present bushfire emergency was highly inopportune from the Liberals’ perspective.
• Voters’ lack of appreciation at having their weekend interrupted to accommodate an outgoing politician’s career move seems to be intensifying, and is presumably much sharpened if it’s their second trip to the polling booth in as many months.
• Barry Collier may well be very popular, and he certainly gave Labor some name recognition lacking from the Liberal opposite number. However, I suspect this to be the least of the contributing factors listed here.
• Hopefully the result will serve as a corrective to the hyperbole that has been inspired by Labor’s epic defeats of the past two to three years. Labor unquestionably finds itself at a low ebb, which only looks set to get lower when the South Australian and Tasmanian elections are held in March. However, the unprecedented scale of some of Labor’s recent drubbings tells us less about the party’s competitiveness over the medium to long term than it does about the increasing volatility of the electorate. This is a sword that cuts both ways, as state Coalition parties learned on a number of occasions in the early 2000s, and the NSW Liberals were reminded today.
Election night
9.06pm. Two-party results for those pre-polls now added, together with 666 primary votes from “iVotes” for the visually or otherwise impaired.
8.52pm. Primary votes from 5460 pre-polls now added.
8.31pm. All booth results are now in, but I believe we should get some pre-polls and postals counted before the evening is done. The NSWEC’s results reporting improved considerably late in the count, so I’m guessing there were technical problems for the first two hours.
8.14pm. Another seven booths in with two-party results, leaving two to come.
8.06pm. All booths now in on the primary vote, with nine still to come on two-party preferred. The two-party preferred result above projects the preference flow from booths which have reported two-party results on to those that haven’t, so it’s very unlikely to change much.
8.03pm. Another two booths reporting on the primary vote find the Labor margin ticking below 5%, but this race was over a long time ago.
7.57pm. Two more booths have reported two-party preferred, the Labor margin being resolute in sticking between 5-6%.
7.54pm. Big round of applause to the NSWEC, which has finally gotten around to publishing some results.
7.52pm. Four more booths in on the primary vote leave the picture essentially unchanged.
7.45pm. Wasn’t looking hard enough – Antony does have the two-party numbers at booth level, so now my 2PP is based on the four booth results with preference flows extrapolated to booths with primary vote counts only (which has made practically no difference, so my preference modelling was doing its job). On top of which, another two booths have reported primary vote results.
7.39pm. Antony now has two-party results from four booths, but without raw numbers at booth level I can’t put them to use. The NSWEC has … nothing.
7.34pm. Two more booths added, now up to eight, and swing holding firm. All results courtesy of the ABC owing to a spectacularly bad performance by the NSWEC. Two-party projection still based on preference modelling.
7.31pm. I’ve now copied the result over from the ABC site, and it appears the Liberals’ concerns were real – Labor look to be romping it in. So far though the two-party result is based on my own modelled preference distribution.
7.28pm. Loads of results at the ABC, but the digit at the NSWEC remains firmly implanted.
7:26pm. Antony Green is able to tell us that “six polling places have Labor strongly placed to win”. Why the NSWEC is not able to bring us any actual results, I must leave to your imagination.
7:10pm. Someone on Twitter says there are “big swings” at the Kirrawee Primary School booth. Not very helpful I know, but all we’ve got at this stage.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Miranda by-election (full background here), with first results to come through in maybe 45 minutes to hour. Official results will be published here, but the above display will lag only very slightly behind. The table will show raw primary vote numbers and percentages, with all other figures (primary vote swing and two-party numbers) booth-matched against the 2011 election result.
Sorry, Psephos, but I just don’t like the Victorian Branch throwing stones at us here in NSW without knowing the whole back story.
Just one example of Robbo’s leadership has been on the Same Sex Marriage issue. He stood up to the NSW Right & the Shoppies and basically told them where to get off and that he would advocate for SSM. Long before O’Farrell got on the bandwagon. In fact, probably why Barry came out in support of SSM too.
Also, it may have looked like window dressing from Victoria, but John Robertson took decisive action against the corrupt cabal around Obeid & MacDonald and had them expelled from the party, plus put in place new rules and character assessments wrt pre-selections.
Just shows how pathetic the Liberals are as well, that they tried to censure him for REFUSING a bribe.
[Maybe voters don’t like Parties in Power?]
I came across a few people during the Fed election who have the following voting strategy: vote against the party who holds your electorate in the hope it will become marginal and have money thrown at it.
[Russell Mahoney @russellmahoney 17m
@GrogsGamut If that swing was repeated statewide in 2015 Labor would win 93 seats in the 93 seat NSW state parliament….]
#RobertsonMentum ?
C@tmomma
Congratulations. A 27% swing is impressive whatever the reason.
Thank you William @48. I wondered if this close to the Federal “number every square” election whether people may have been re-programmed to a certain extent. But obviously not.
Just for the record I do not speak on behalf of the Victorian Branch of the Australian Labor Party.
[Russell Mahoney @russellmahoney 17m
@GrogsGamut If that swing was repeated statewide in 2015 Labor would win 93 seats in the 93 seat NSW state parliament….]
No they wouldn’t.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/nsw/nsw20113.txt
It takes a brave man to sit down,one on one, with a standover man, no microphone, no witness, and say NO. No one here matches that desciption
Psephos, that’s a given
The FBEU are taking credit – Darin Sullivan is President of Fire Brigade Employees Union
[Darin Sullivan @darinsullivan09 8m
@stuartayresmp I was on a booth today + I’m on night shift tonight at fire stn. #ALP had nothing to do with it – Your cuts did@david_latham]
Seems the result was a combination of O’Farrel cuts to the Sutherland Hospital, an inept Liberal local Council, the firies getting fired up about cuts, and Annersley pulling the plug
Sigh. Psephos. Of course you don’t speak on behalf of the Victorian Branch of the Labor Party. However, you cannot deny that you have a perspective of NSW Labor which is informed from a Victorian residence!
[Seems the result was a combination of O’Farrel cuts to the Sutherland Hospital, an inept Liberal local Council, the firies getting fired up about cuts, and Annersley pulling the plug.]
That seems a fairly and likely summary.
Swing was 24% on pre-poll votes. How did the firefighters have influence that? Were there letterbox drops, adverts or social media in the electorate?
I would think major fires and cuts to fire services would not go down well.
[Sigh. Psephos. Of course you don’t speak on behalf of the Victorian Branch of the Labor Party. However, you cannot deny that you have a perspective of NSW Labor which is informed from a Victorian residence!]
I lived in beautiful West Queanbeyan for two years and my opinion was the same. But C@tmomma, if all that you say is indeed true, I’m quite happy to give credit where it is due. If the good voters of Miranda are happy with Robbo, then so am I.
Just as well the fires weren’t in The Royal National Park I suppose.
Also, as well as the Sutherland Hospital cuts, there has been a stoush over St George Hospital hot having the funds to perform enough life-saving Peritonectomy surgery for cancer sufferers. Which the NSW State Health Minister, in a last minute fix tried to compensate for by opening up some beds at Prince of Wales Hospital to take some cases.
Typical Liberals, only do something when their electoral success is threatened.
[Thank you William @48. I wondered if this close to the Federal “number every square” election whether people may have been re-programmed to a certain extent. But obviously not.]
My figures for this election were actually a bit wrong – it should be 32.0% Labor, 20.02% Liberal, 48.9% exhausted. So there may in fact be a little in what you’re suggesting.
Pru Goward, OUT!
Ok, I’m not an ALP member, but I am in NSW, and from my perspective the sins of the NSW ALP have been so great that they need to work their arses off just to get past my unhappiness and cynicism about anything they may do.
In my opinion they will have to work twice as hard as ever before, and uphold standards never before seen in Australia, if they wish to redeem themselves in my eyes, and I suspect in the eyes of many of the people of NSW.
The NSW ALP must change. They must reform. The bad old days must stay in the past – there must be eternal vigilance now to prevent any Obeids or Macdonalds or Thomsons (or Orkopouloses or Richos or Neals or …) from prospering under the NSW ALP umbrella.
At the moment, in my opinion, it is not possible for the NSW ALP to receive too much criticism or too much scrutiny.
Robertson deserves credit for stepping up to the plate to be leader when no one else wanted to do the job. He deserves credit for recognizing how crucial reform and the appearance of ongoing reform was and is for the NSW ALP.
He is not the leader the NSW ALP need for the future, however, and his revelations about bribery allegations have made his attempt to portray himself as a cleanskin futile now, and it is probably only a matter of time before he is dumped.
Psephos, I just haven’t detected an animus towards Robertson as much as the Murdoch media may like to try to suggest otherwise.
Anyway, meeting up with NSW people tomorrow for a BBQ and will find out more about this By-election then.
And I thought that PB was inhabited by magical, mathelogical marvels!! Didn’t see that one coming, did youse
Pre-poll votes swung 24% against the Libs, before any bushfires or campaigning firefighters, in a blue-ribbon Liberal seat.
Lots of public servants in South Sydney, methinks.
Barry O’Farrell needs to wake the f^%# up. Yes, he has run a generally competent and clean government but NO, NSW voters DO NOT WANT their service-cutting, privatising, devolutionary agenda.
Taxes are GOOD when they make possible the non-profit services that people NEED (health, education, transport, FIRE-FIGHTING), more efficiently and more effectively than the profit-driven private sector that skimps on service and pockets the change.
FFS, this isn’t rocket surgery.
[And I thought that PB was inhabited by magical, mathelogical marvels!! Didn’t see that one coming, did youse]
Actually the result was discussed earlier, it was dismissed as unlikely. But the tea leaves were there.
Antony Green has the pre-poll 2PP as ALP 2818 LIB 2323
Jackol,
Let me assure you, the message you are attempting to send here to the ALP has been heard loud and clear already.
Good people are only just getting into place, from where they can clean up the mess left behind by the corrupt.
Al Dente @ 73
You might add selling off publicly owned electricity assets to your list.
You have to remember that the seat of Miranda is in the “Shire” it’s residents think they are in a class of their own and those visiting there are merely accommodated rather than welcomed.
This is a massive result for the ALP and Barry Collier in particular.
[C@tmomma
Posted Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 8:16 pm | PERMALINK
Psephos,
As per usual,your opinion is based upon your own inflated opinion of your opinions.]
And, so are yours.
I wish you’d get over yourself, especially since you didn’t get Deb O’Neil over the line. It has been all quite quiet on the eastern front since then.
And now you step in and try to take kudos for Miranda, in Robertson’s name.
Labor had nothing to do with the win in Miranda, other than the NSW govt’s betrayal of them by cutting Labor’s funding.
So, no need for theatrical sighs. And blaming parochialism.
We’re Labor through and through. The whole damn lot of us. Victorians applaud NSW victories, just as you should ours, and any other state’s.
You seem intent on blaming anyone but NSW for everything. Did it occur to you that the reason Labor lost fed govt was because of NSW.
Clean up you own act, before you start “sighing” at us.
From up here in QLD, where we know something about being decimated at an election, may I congratulate the ALP campaign in Miranda.
What a wonderful result.
Could NSW be hedging its bets? NSW tends to balance out State and federal elections how many hold on to two terms when both parties are in office Federally and State?
iVote 2PP
ALP 321 LIB 311 Exhaust 34
Greens are defiantly in decline. They would be struggling to win a set in a Double Dissolution. Major party vote will increase should a double dissolution be held.
[Troy Bramston #Miranda by-election swing against O’Farrell govt could be highest ever in #nswpol likely to rival #Ryde 23% 2008 + #Penrith 26% 2010]
NSW is traditionally strong Labor, notwithstanding regular debacles.
I think the expression when Carr won was that you could get into your car at the Sydney GPO and drive west to the SA border and not pass through a tory held seat – that was an exaggeration but not by too much.
it’s good that the Greens are “defiant” in decline!!
There is of course a number of factors at play here.
a) The electorate is annoyed at being forced to the polls, again.
b) The smear campaign against the NSW opposition leader backfired.
c) There is a sense of balance among people.
And most importantly…
d) The electorate is volatile, and increasingly so.
85
By seat numbers not that much of an exaggeration. By distance, definitely an exaggeration.
I doubt this will ever be the case again.
The ALP will win government in NSW again, no doubt, but there will never again be great rusted-on support – that support has been mostly burnt now, and once burnt it’s never rusting on again – and if there is the slightest hint at silly buggers from any ALP MP, or revolving door leadership, the ALP will be out on their ear again faster than you can say Rumplestiltskin.
Kezza2,
If you knew what you were talking about wrt Deb O’Neill’s loss in Robertson, I may have taken what you said more seriously.
Deb won the Primary Vote in Robertson, but was cruelled by a stooge candidate put up and funded by John Singleton, who siphoned his preferences to the Liberal Party. He was a popular local mayor and former coach of the A League champion soccer team on the Central Coast, so attracted the votes of a lot of the same people who voted for him in the local council election.
Deb O’Neill was good, but not good enough to beat 2 candidates in cahoots together like that.
As far as the rest of your diatribe, well, to state that ‘Labor had nothing to do with the win in Miranda’, just shows you are talking out of your … because Labor campaigned their guts out in Miranda, as the Pre Poll results, as well as the general results on the day show.
Yes, we who are Labor are all ecstatic about this win, no matter where in this nation we are. However, you seem to have missed the point of my comments to Psephos, which was that I believed he was misguided in his free character assessment of John Robertson. A fact which he acknowledged.
[I think the expression when Carr won was that you could get into your car at the Sydney GPO and drive west to the SA border and not pass through a tory held seat – that was an exaggeration but not by too much.]
I think that was true in the Wran years when Labor held Blue Mountains, Bathurst, Castlereagh and Broken Hill. I don’t think it was true in the Carr years unless Murray-Darling had a border with Bathurst, which I don’t think it did. Antony would know since he has a complete set of NSW electoral maps.
WE’VE TURNED THE CORNER MOFOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Clearly Barry O’Farrell’s government is dying of shame.
Now of course if you’re at the Sydney GPO you’re in Alex Greenwich’s seat. But you can still drive from Maroubra to Liverpool entirely through Labor seats!
[Antony would know since he has a complete set of NSW electoral maps.]
But is he willing to share them?
c@tmomma
How have you been?
Jackol – good points.
But the tories are no super politicians either. Their preference is to keep going further to the right and I doubt thats where the electorate really want to go.
Remember Carr had a long time in opposition but Labor came back and was voted in several terms beyond what it deserved – because voters perceived the tories to be worse and the tories burnt through leaders before winning with BOF.
NSW Labor need a creditable leader to start with and the crooks locked up – then it can start to rebuild.
I had forgotten that the NSWEC website has a complete set of maps. The last time it was possible to drive from the Sydney GPO to the SA border entirely through Labor-held seats was in 1947. You went south through Sutherland, Illawarra and Bulli, then west through Goulburn, Young, Dubbo, Ashburnham, Castlereagh and Cobar.
[ I don’t think it was true in the Carr years unless Murray-Darling had a border with Bathurst, ]
Yes that Dubbo area in the central west was the area I was thinking about.
Also the Broken Hill seat takes in a lot of Nats country as well these days, Federally and probably State wise.
Hey Catmomma @ 90
That’s better. Bit of fire in the belly.
I was so sick of the old “sigh” factor about everything and anything.
Do you think Deb will get Carr’s senate vacancy. Or will it be Mike Kelly?
The quote came from Richo actually back in the day and was probably Wran era.