Morgan has published its first multi-mode poll since the election, and Essential its second online poll (the latter will henceforth publish on Tuesdays rather than Mondays). Even if you doubt the value of voting intention polling at this point of the cycle, the results are of interest with respect to the Labor leadership. If you don’t doubt the value of voting intention polling, the results are of interest in pointing to a weak Coalition honeymoon.
Starting with voting intention:
• Essential Research has the Coalition lead at 51-49 on the current two-week rolling average, combining results from 1042 respondents in this week’s survey from Thursday to Sunday and 844 from the week before. This leaves the Coalition two points down on a less than spectacular showing last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady on 9%.
• The Morgan SMS, online and face-to-face poll of 2999 respondents, conducted from Saturday to Monday, has the Coalition on 43.5%, Labor on 34%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 4%. This compares with election results on current counting of 45.6%, 33.4%, 8.6% and 5.5%. This translates into a headline two-party figure of 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s a more comfortable 52.5-47.5 on preferences from the September 7 election (though I’m not sure exactly how minor party preference splits were determined given all the votes aren’t in). It is of course enormously unlikely that minor party preference allocations would have changed so dramatically over a fortnight, a further pointer to the dubiousness of respondent-allocation.
• Morgan has good news for Anthony Albanese, who is favoured over Bill Shorten 41% to 23% among all voters, 46% to 32% among Labor voters, 38% to 18% among Coalition voters and 48% to 12% among Greens voters. The gap is widest and narrowest and Albanese and Shorten’s respective home states of New South Wales and Victoria. The qualitative findings here are unusually interesting: “Electors who preferred Anthony Albanese often mentioned Shorten’s role in the demise of former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten’s strong links to the unions, and also his links to the Governor-General as well as Albanese’s better policy expertise, experience and personality.”
• Essential finds Tony Abbott with similarly modest leads as preferred prime minister over both Albanese (37-31) and Shorten (37-32).
• Essential at least has had a bounce on personal approval, in net terms at least – his approval is up only one point since his last poll as Opposition Leader on September 2 to 41%, but his disapproval is down 13% to 36% (making for a big increase in “don’t know”.
• Essential finds 45% concerned about the lack of women in cabinet against 50% not concerned, with splits of 39-57 among men, 51-42 among women, 67-29 among Labor voters and 17-80 among Coalition voters.
• Also featured in Essential are questions on trust in use of personal information by various professions and organisations, and the value or otherwise of foreign investment in farm land.
UPDATE: Morgan has kindly provided me with its qualitative responses from the Labor leadership question, and I’ve run the responses through a word cloud generator. Note that in doing so I’ve merged together a couple of words like “don’t like”, “don’t trust” and “prime minister”. You can get a considerably bigger image by clicking on the images below.
First up, the 443 responses from Anthony Albanese supporters, for whom the primary reason for backing Albanese appears to have been Bill Shorten:
And now the 229 responses from Bill Shorten supporters:
AA
Houses 1,300 metres away from me can connect to the NBN now, they are Greenfields sites. In fact the new freehold residences at the Palmer Resort also have FTTP. That is 100 metres away.
This is the huge issue Turnbull will face, and given he has let existing contracts be filled, he will cave in.
If he likes getting QT questions on why Marge Nurge from Upper Kindred cannot sell her house cos it does not have the NBN, he will keep up his sham.
The coalitions problem with the NBN is it locks out private companies cherry picking the most lucrative sites and requires NBNco to supply everyone at the same cost. This is actually why we need the NBN.
ruawake
Or have your house connected and sell then have to pay to get connected. Much as some morons may say that you just add the cost to the house you are selling, that is not going to happen. These are generally the same morons complaining about house prices.
Fraudband disadvantages renters and small business who mainly lease or rent.
So much for “we understand small business” mantra
151
The threat of Rupert has a significant chance of keeping the Coalition`s anti-NBN policies going.
The best chance of the Coalition accepting the NBN is the Nationals working out that the Coalition`s current anti-NBN policies seriously hurt the bush.
Mick77@55
victoria@87
Yep, the Indonesians.
Mind you, they already established that within a week of the election.
152
That is the Liberals problem with it. It is the sort of thing the Nationals like.
In fact the new freehold residences at the Palmer Resort also have FTTP. That is 100 metres away
========================================================
100 meters…the difference between getting NBN connected to your house as part of the roll out or having to pay for the connection.
Not Turn(fullof)Bull’s problem its already connected in his suburb and in Abbotts so all is good with the world
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/patrick-the-male-gorilla-to-have-therapy-for-sexist-attitude/4976936
AA
Turnbull knows he cannot pick winners with FTTP and hope others will accept less (except if you live in units).
I think every freehold home in most centres will get a FTTP connection, the politics of have and have not will be too toxic.
[Helena Karter @HkarterKarter 16m
Nick Minchin declares Tim Flannery’s views invalid as not a climatologist! Proceeds to spew his own anti climate-change views based on ?????]
It appears NBN Co will be doing its strategic review, but not until it has a new board.
So Turnbull’s statement on 16th Sept, that the SR will be concluded in 60 days is er Wrong.
Hey Minchin
Try Crowd Funding your wacko organisations, get $250,000 in a day? In your wettest dreams.
lizzie@160
And Minchins views are also invalid as he knows diddly squat about science
Yesiree Bob
I’m not surprised by these sort of comments from you seeing that your Meguire’s brother:
[How silly do you think you will look when it becomes obvious that Tonka Boy Tony is no more than a one term wonder ?]
Firstly it ain’t gonna happen; secondly looking silly is not something that worries your fellow Labor rusted-ons so why would it worry me. I’ve been right pretty well all the way over the last few years and up until a few months ago your rusted-on partners in crime were telling us with certainty that Gillard will lead Labor to the election and win. And then of course it was Rudd will win. Now it is whoever …. It’s Abbott in fact at least for 2016 if not 2019 and 2022 as well if he goes well. He’s still fairly young.
Cash raised from 457 visa holders for educating their children in West Australian public schools won’t go back into education, a budget estimates hearing has been told.
The money will instead go to Treasury’s general funds.
Shameless racist cash grab by Colon
[I’ve been right pretty well all the way over the last few years]
The trick is to be right when your side ends up losing.
Barnett’s admission that the time line for delivering the Government’s big two public transport projects will slip up to another two years is more evidence his “fully funded, fully costed” election pledge was a “lie”
SOP for Liberal Governments.
@Mick77/164
And this is coming from a liberal?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24216988
Look out, Tony, they’re on to you.
[Australia is the developed world’s worst polluter per head of population.]
William
[The trick is to be right when your side ends up losing.]
Easily done. You just switch sides.
And anyway the Swans lost … uhm I actually predicted they’d win so forget that one.
Abbott will lose seats at the next election, most first term Govts in the last 50 years have.
The question is will he lose enough and where will he lose them. A second term is not a certainty.
Mr Morrison said yesterday the new information flow was aimed at people smugglers.
“People smugglers use information as a tactic to ply their trade,” he said.
“Taking control of how that information is released denies people smugglers the opportunity to exploit such information.”
——————————————————-
The idiot decision that just keeps giving.
Refugees are provided welfare phone calls when they arrive. Any call would soon be passed on. Add to that the report that a people smuggler was laughing at the policy because the refugees make a call when the are intercepted. And then the residents of Christmas Island who are not bound by the Minister of Silly Decisions edict have already said they will twitter or get the news out other ways.
Making announcements daily, weekly the people smugglers will still get the information.
Seriously is this man’s IQ the small as his shoe size?
Another lie from rAbbott. He stated that the Coalition-of-Four were ready to hit the ground running.
Must be a very slow ‘run’, Turn(fullof)Bull needs 6 months to get Fraudband policy ready.
And if sacking people and closing down departments is their idea of hitting the ground running when the budget ’emergency’ has been pushed to the background and effectively forgotten.
[172/AA
The idiot decision that just keeps giving.]
The wreckers have managed to make one difficult issue into two difficult issus. It won’t be long and the people will be yearning for another election so they can restore harmony, reason and justice.
Well, two opinion polls within a short time of an election going into reverse for the ‘winner’.
Not only was there no honeymoon, the offspring – the new government – seems still born.
To think that Abbott is looking so bad, so invisible and so ineffective in just three little weeks.
It will not be tomorrow, but some weeks down the track it will not be stale sandwiches which will be thrown at him but rotten eggs and rotten tomatoes.
And the conservative hacks reckon they are onto a good thing.
On the back foot and aggressive and abusive as is their want.
Just tossed the coin with Jamie Clements ahead of the big debate. Albo won, speaking second
What about that (sneaky) rumour that Abbott was ordering the close down of the telephone towers on Christmas Island?
Just someone being a bit too clever, or is there a kernel of truth?
This man will stoop way low as we know.
[ruawake
……A second term is not a certainty.]
True, but when was the last government that was not returned?
The only one who came close in the last half century was your friend Gillard!
[ruawake
Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 7:09 pm | PERMALINK
Just tossed the coin with Jamie Clements ahead of the big debate. Albo won, speaking second]
You tossed it?
I didn’t realise you were such an ALP insider! What aftershave does Albo use, I bet it is Old Spice, aint it???
Lefties are squealing like stuck pigs at the new governments position on stopping the boats just like they did under Howard… that’s how you know you are onto a winner.
Australians don’t care for the lefties position and the only thing that matters at the end of the day is that boats stop.
And the stats so far:
Operation Sovereign Borders
1 week, 1 boat with 33 people since operation sovereign borders launched.
In comparison in the first week of Rudd 2.0 there was 1000 Boat arrivals.
Operation Sovereign Borders is a GO!
[160
lizzie
Nick Minchin declares Tim Flannery’s views invalid as not a climatologist! Proceeds to spew…]
Minchin’s spooky. He reminds me something very sharp and stealthy – a stiletto.
Evening all.
Have to say I’m surprised at the first batch of polling. I anticipated a solid lead to the govt and to Abbott approvals as the expected honeymoon kicks in.
Am loving this Labor leadership ballot, as it’s delivered some pretty positive media focus on the party. And more to come for the next few weeks. 🙂
[1 week, 1 boat with 33 people since operation sovereign borders launched.]
Actually the week tally was 7 boats with 550 people on board. Scoot will tell you next month.
[180
Sean Tisme
Lefties are squealing like stuck pigs at the new governments position on stopping the boats just like they did under Howard… that’s how you know you are onto a winner.
Australians don’t care for the lefties position and the only thing that matters at the end of the day is that boats stop.
Operation Sovereign Borders
1 week, 1 boat with 33 people since operation sovereign borders launched.]
How do you know? The stats could be faked for al you know.
[Just tossed the coin with Jamie Clements ahead of the big debate. Albo won, speaking second]
When is this debate?
Albo and Bill are both wearing Red Ties. 🙂
[When is this debate?]
7:30 on sky and abc24
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/kevin-rudd-says-png-has-room-for-10000-asylum-seekers/story-fni0cx12-1226690762888
4077 Boatpeople – Number to arrive in July 2013
49,658 Boatpeople since Rudd won in 2007
42,255 Boatpeople since the 2010 Election
1567 Boatpeople in first 2 Weeks of Rudd the Dudds PNG Solution
3435 Kids behind the razor wire
1000+ Drownings at sea since Labor came to power
These are the numbers Abbotts Sovereign Borders will be put in comparison with anything else is just fluff.
Any chance Albo will refer to Shorten as a Melbourne tossed and Shorten to Albo as a Sydney spiv?
A love in will be underwhelming.
Barnett charging 457 visa holders for the cost of educating their children at public schools. But the money raised won’t go into the education sector (of course not), but into Treasury general revenue.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19091262/457-visa-school-cash-not-for-education/
Liberals will do anything to avoid giving extra funds to schools, it would seem.
Thanks ru. I thought their first debate was scheduled for Thursday, have obviously gotten the dates mixed up.
The maritime trade could easily be influenced by the weather…5-5.5m today…quite rough conditions, for small vessels…
http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/christmas-island.shtml
Christmas Island Forecast
IDW10700
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Christmas Island Forecast
Issued at 3:45 pm WST on Tuesday 24 September 2013
Weather Situation:
Moderate to fresh east to southeast trade flow.
Forecast for the rest of Tuesday 24 September
Partly cloudy.
Winds: Southeasterly around 15 knots.
Seas: 1.5 to 2.0 metres.
Swell: South to southwesterly 3.0 to 3.5 metres.
Forecast for Wednesday 25 September
Chance of a shower.
Winds: Southeasterly around 15 knots.
Seas: 3.0 to 4.0 metres.
Swell: South to southwesterly 2.5 to 3.0 metres.
Max 28 Min 22
Outlook for Thursday 26 September
Chance of a shower.
Winds: Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Max 28
Outlook for Friday 27 September
Chance of a shower.
Winds: East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Good Evening
Debate about to start Albo and Shorten taking places
[Actually the week tally was 7 boats with 550 people on board]
Wrong, that was the total since the election.
There has been 1 boat with 33 people since Operation Sovereign borders was launched last week.
The dumb and dumber debate… Who wins the wooden spoon…
[190
confessions
Barnett charging 457 visa holders for the cost of educating their children at public schools. But the money raised won’t go into the education sector (of course not), but into Treasury general revenue.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19091262/457-visa-school-cash-not-for-education/
Liberals will do anything to avoid giving extra funds to schools, it would seem.]
Considering how much the WA economy relies on 457 workers, this is a pretty stupid decision by Barnett.
briefly:
I hope you didn’t suffer any damage to your home over the last few nights. I see Perth has experienced quite severe winds. Not as bad here, but still quite blustery, and the forecast of another severe front to pass through tonight.
[195
New2This
The dumb and dumber debate… Who wins the wooden spoon…]
It’s hard to choose…you or ST or CC…all equally dim-witted
Yep Newt
You or Tism?
ABC9to5 just don’t get the idea of a 24 hour news broadcaster do they?
A national debate is happening and they show small images of the debate in the corner of the screen and talk to pundits about what they think of it WHILE IT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!!!!!
Stop talking about it, shut up and take the coverage of the debate you twats.