Morgan and Essential polls

Neither Morgan nor Essential finds the government enjoying much of a honeymoon, while Morgan has Anthony Albanese well ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Labor leader.

Morgan has published its first multi-mode poll since the election, and Essential its second online poll (the latter will henceforth publish on Tuesdays rather than Mondays). Even if you doubt the value of voting intention polling at this point of the cycle, the results are of interest with respect to the Labor leadership. If you don’t doubt the value of voting intention polling, the results are of interest in pointing to a weak Coalition honeymoon.

Starting with voting intention:

• Essential Research has the Coalition lead at 51-49 on the current two-week rolling average, combining results from 1042 respondents in this week’s survey from Thursday to Sunday and 844 from the week before. This leaves the Coalition two points down on a less than spectacular showing last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady on 9%.

• The Morgan SMS, online and face-to-face poll of 2999 respondents, conducted from Saturday to Monday, has the Coalition on 43.5%, Labor on 34%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 4%. This compares with election results on current counting of 45.6%, 33.4%, 8.6% and 5.5%. This translates into a headline two-party figure of 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s a more comfortable 52.5-47.5 on preferences from the September 7 election (though I’m not sure exactly how minor party preference splits were determined given all the votes aren’t in). It is of course enormously unlikely that minor party preference allocations would have changed so dramatically over a fortnight, a further pointer to the dubiousness of respondent-allocation.

• Morgan has good news for Anthony Albanese, who is favoured over Bill Shorten 41% to 23% among all voters, 46% to 32% among Labor voters, 38% to 18% among Coalition voters and 48% to 12% among Greens voters. The gap is widest and narrowest and Albanese and Shorten’s respective home states of New South Wales and Victoria. The qualitative findings here are unusually interesting: “Electors who preferred Anthony Albanese often mentioned Shorten’s role in the demise of former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten’s strong links to the unions, and also his links to the Governor-General as well as Albanese’s better policy expertise, experience and personality.”

• Essential finds Tony Abbott with similarly modest leads as preferred prime minister over both Albanese (37-31) and Shorten (37-32).

• Essential at least has had a bounce on personal approval, in net terms at least – his approval is up only one point since his last poll as Opposition Leader on September 2 to 41%, but his disapproval is down 13% to 36% (making for a big increase in “don’t know”.

• Essential finds 45% concerned about the lack of women in cabinet against 50% not concerned, with splits of 39-57 among men, 51-42 among women, 67-29 among Labor voters and 17-80 among Coalition voters.

• Also featured in Essential are questions on trust in use of personal information by various professions and organisations, and the value or otherwise of foreign investment in farm land.

UPDATE: Morgan has kindly provided me with its qualitative responses from the Labor leadership question, and I’ve run the responses through a word cloud generator. Note that in doing so I’ve merged together a couple of words like “don’t like”, “don’t trust” and “prime minister”. You can get a considerably bigger image by clicking on the images below.

First up, the 443 responses from Anthony Albanese supporters, for whom the primary reason for backing Albanese appears to have been Bill Shorten:

And now the 229 responses from Bill Shorten supporters:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,277 comments on “Morgan and Essential polls”

Comments Page 1 of 66
1 2 66
  1. The ALP and Greens should definitely block as much as they can between now and the end of the financial year, to try and get a DD.

  2. From previous thread

    While there are few consolations for no longer being in government, one that will appeal to Labor is that it no longer has to deal with the asylum-seeker problem. It’s now up to Tony Abbott to ”stop the boats”. As Labor’s perceived failures in this area were Tony’s ticket to the Lodge, it’s unlikely the electorate will allow him to forget his promise.
    Whatever he comes up with, it is unlikely that any specific solution will work for long. This is because the situation itself is constantly changing: the refugee problem reflects the human costs of a world that is increasingly violent and unpredictable. There are not only questions of values at stake. For any Australian government, giving effect to our right to control who comes into the country poses some difficult administrative problems.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbott-sailing-in-rough-seas-20130923-2ua0s.html#ixzz2fmkfnV7g

  3. 67-29 among Labor, 17-80 among Coalition voters RE concerned/not concerned over lack of women in Coalition cabinet.

    All I can say is WOW!

  4. Sandi has been “boned”

    [The controversial social media voice of the Immigration Department’s top spin doctor has been silenced by the incoming Abbott government.

    A senior departmental official confirmed in Canberra on Tuesday that the department’s tweets would focus on “good news stories” under the Coalition.

    The department’s national communications manager, Sandi Logan, has been told that incoming Immigration Minister Scott Morrison would “front” for the department and Mr Logan’s combative presence on Twitter was no longer required.]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/sandis-twitter-services-no-longer-required-coalition-20130924-2ub81.html#ixzz2fmntDuW7

  5. Tom the first and best

    If the ALP and Green are obstructionist, I expect that at a DD election, the remaining Greens and ALP will fit in a phone box and the PUP will become the official opposition

    Victoria

    It depends on whether they are funded like Change.org and Get up. Which are mere fronts from Unions and extreme left of Australian politics

  6. [AN international law expert and sometime government policy adviser has called on Indonesia’s administration to stop co-operating in preventing boatpeople leaving its territory for Australia.

    University of Indonesia’s professor of international law Hikmahanto Juwana said Indonesian authorities should not hold asylum-seekers in detention and, when found at sea, should assist them to get to Australia.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/dont-stop-the-boats-jakarta-told/story-fn9hm1gu-1226725551863

  7. Geoff

    Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    …. we are in OUR tent pissing out …..

    It is not really your tent. It is williams and you are a squatter.

    —————————————————–

    Are you totally lacking in English comprehension ???? or just dumb ….. I never said it was MY tent …. Its William’s and his invited quests to share in harmonious discussion by delightful trolls like Bob McQuire, Tricot, lizzie, Fran Barlow …..even the *boss* Willian himself drops in occasionally with his usual pearls of wisdom – of the good and bad of our common purpose .

    Every so often we get obnoxious “gatecrashers” like Seanpissonme, M(pr)ick 77 , Joe Jizz etc etc ……. who have such an inferiority complex about their Liberal cause that they can’t stand to stay in their own tent and listen to their own bulls**t …… and come over to OUR tent in some vain attempt to justify their pathetic existance ….

  8. From the first few days of the last ALP and this government, the main difference I see is that one is interested in sounding like doing something, or being the “nice guys” the other is interested in actually doing something. The talkers of them lasted 3 years (twice) lets see how the doers goes

  9. I found this bit particularly interesting in the article i just linked

    [But his harshest criticism was directed at the new government, saying turning asylum boats back to Indonesia would be hostile behaviour towards his country. “Julia Bishop says that Australia doesn’t need Indonesia’s approval, but its understanding,” he commented yesterday. “Indonesia also doesn’t need Australia’s approval, but its understanding that we want to respect human rights.” ]- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/dont-stop-the-boats-jakarta-told/story-fn9hm1gu-1226725551863#sthash.j93DELHp.dpuf

  10. [While there are few consolations for no longer being in government, one that will appeal to Labor is that it no longer has to deal with the asylum-seeker problem. It’s now up to Tony Abbott to ”stop the boats”. As Labor’s perceived failures in this area were Tony’s ticket to the Lodge, it’s unlikely the electorate will allow him to forget his promise.]

    It’s important, however, that Labor not take the easy option of veering off to the left on this issue, as we did (some of us, anyway) in opposition before 2007. Stopping the boats, offshore processing, warehousing in PNG and Nauru, no visas for unauthorised arrivals, are all LABOR POLICY. Labor people have to support that policy, while at the same time attacking Abbott for his absurd “turn back the boats” policy, which won’t work. One of the reasons we lost office (not the only one, but a major one), was that we dithered on this issue for too long, adopted a tough policy far too late, and failed to stop the boats. Rudd and Gillard were equally culpable on this. If we now lapse into Hanson-Youngism, because we think we don’t have to deal with tough issues in opposition, we won’t get those voters back and we won’t win the next election.

  11. I expect that at a DD election, the remaining Greens and ALP will fit in a phone box

    There is no reason to expect this. If the ‘carbon tax’ were overwhelmingly hated by the public then perhaps that would be the case, but there’s no evidence that it is – the polling suggests the public are fairly evenly split, and that’s not conducive to a massive win over the issue.

    Quite the opposite – the public are not going to be happy going back to the polls, and the ones with responsibility for doing so, without an overwhelming reason to do so, would be Abbott and the LNP.

    Which are mere fronts from Unions and extreme left of Australian politics

    You can believe that if you like. You can’t just wave away the opinions of large numbers of people as “fronts” without dipping into the delusional.

  12. zoidlord

    If the ALP decide to be obstructionist and think it is good idea to force the electorate to decide again (a clear 54-46 landslide) after 1/2 a year. I fully expect the ALP to be completely decimated and most ALP supports to go to Palmer

  13. Why do some here continually bracket the Greens with Labor?

    When are the Greens going to get it?

    We’ve had Combet and Albo call them lunatics – albeit in a nice way and there are many others in the Labor Party that don’t want a bar of them.

    Remember Milne consulting with Abbott and Morrison on AS and the Greens voting for NO action on climate change when Rudd/Turnbull proposed the CPRS?

  14. Repeated from last thread. The whole article is worth reading.

    https://newmatilda.com/2013/09/24/abbott-has-got-culture-war-he-wanted

    [Right-wingers know they’ve rejoined battle. They’re itching for a fight they think they can win. A typically grandiloquent article today from Nick Cater, who is leaving The Australian, illustrates the point. “The Left will have to man up if it intends to fight back,” Cater intones, with apparently unconscious paternalism, “for the momentum is running against progressive conformity.” For Cater, “the dismissal of Flannery” signals that Tony Abbott’s government “will not bow to political correctness and has little time for the nanny state.”

    Like it or not, the next three years will see bitter battles over culture, the humanities and science. If the left decides not to fight them, they are battles that will be certainly be lost.

    As it turns out, I think the left will fight. Indeed, the next three years are likely to see a much wider and more effective mobilisation of progressive sentiment than Tony Abbott and the tacticians at Crosby Textor may have bargained for.

    In that respect, this morning’s announcement of the rebirth of the Climate Commission as the crowd-funded and independent Climate Council is a straw in the wind. Only days after its abolition, Flannery and his colleagues at the Commission have reconstituted themselves with the help of a groundswell of community support. As independent analysts, they loom as far more effective critics of Greg Hunt and Tony Abbott’s risible Direct Action policy than they would have been while still formally part of the government.]

  15. Surely the Productivity Commission has to be called in, I mean wasn’t that Turnbull’s refrain?

    There’s no way that they would get some dodgy LNP-friendly consultant to do up the report they want to receive … I mean that would be dishonest…

  16. Jackol

    LOL the biggest mistake in Rudd’s PM stint was not going to a DD and backing down to the Greens and Liberals, if he went to a DD, he would still be a PM and we would be referring to him as a “convicted politician”

    If the ALP blocks legislation that the public approved to the tune of 54/46…. it will be the ALP’s funeral if they force an election

  17. [the public are not going to be happy going back to the polls,]

    Exactly.

    You need a good reason and really strong grounds to go to a DD election.

    Like a policy that had the agreement of Labor + 50% of the Coalition + the Greens v Abbott and his sceptics.

    But that chance passed – so sad 😯

  18. dovif – comparing Rudd’s judgment and circumstances with Abbott’s judgment and circumstances is bogus – they are completely different.

    The overwhelming consensus among commentators is that the ALP were voted out and that the LNP received very little in the way of endorsement for their platform.

    If the LNP thinks that it has overwhelming popular support for its proposals, by all means go to a DD. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense, and pointing to the election TPP is not going to help if the polls head back to 50-50 or worse for the LNP.

    Of course, the LNP may do brilliantly and get a delayed honeymoon. When that happens we can talk again; until then you’re dreaming.

  19. dovif @12

    [ From the first few days of the last ALP and this government, the main difference I see is that one is interested in sounding like doing something, or being the “nice guys” the other is interested in actually doing something. The talkers of them lasted 3 years (twice) lets see how the doers goes]

    Couldn’t agree less. The legislative record of the past 6 years refutes refutes your rather glib assertion.

    Plus there is the small issue of the GFC, and how Australia avoided being sucked into a global depression thanks to the efforts of the Labor govt.

  20. [ Of course, the LNP may do brilliantly and get a delayed honeymoon.]

    Ever been married? 😉

    [When that happens we can talk again; until then you’re dreaming.]

    More hallucinating than dreaming from dovif.

  21. Very solid lead for Albo amongst voters, both Labor and the general population.

    Why would Labor Caucus vote against the more popular candidate?

  22. dovif

    Labor policy is for an ETS – a market based mechanism to price carbon.

    The carbon tax converts to an ETS soon. Labor must stick to its policy of an ETS.

    They were warned about listening to the Greens 🙂

    And I agree, no way should Labor get soft on AS!

  23. Is this the first govt in modern Australian history to lose support immediately after an election?

    Against a leaderless opposition too….

  24. [If the ALP decide to be obstructionist and think it is good idea to force the electorate to decide again (a clear 54-46 landslide) after 1/2 a year. I fully expect the ALP to be completely decimated and most ALP supports to go to Palmer]

    Or the LNP could lose office.

    The other theory could be:

    – electorate cant stand Abbott, but hated divided ALP schmozzle even more
    – used polls to get rid of Gillard (would have used election)
    – used election to get rid of Rudd, albeit not as baseball bat happy
    – will gladly use another election to get rid of that stinker Abbott.

    Just an hypothesis.

    And just to correct you: none of this is likely to happen inside 6 months. Abbott would be mad not to try his legislation on the new senate first, from next July. Then add at least 4 months for appropriate triggers for a DD.

  25. @dovif 22:

    [If the ALP blocks legislation that the public approved to the tune of 54/46…. it will be the ALP’s funeral if they force an election]

    Why?

    What is the segment of the voting population – which you apparently believe to be significant in number – that voted for Labor earlier this month, but which would abandon them in a DD election if they stuck by the policies that won these people’s votes last time?

    Who are the people who were in favour of carbon pricing three weeks ago, but who would “kill” Labor at the ballot box for standing by it in the Senate now?

  26. My reading of Turnbull’s stuff today is that he has called reviews and will let NBN Co continue as it is now for at least 12 months. (The Silcar contracts were only issued in August).

    Unit dwellers will lose big time, with private companies connecting them to the NBN backbone and also selling retail products (the Telstra Mess).

    It is yet another shift by Turnbull to accepting most of the Conroy plan.

  27. [Very solid lead for Albo amongst voters, both Labor and the general population.]

    They don’t get a vote, ALP members do. I knew this tripe would emerge. 🙁

  28. ruawake

    It does appear as if Turnbull is going ahead with the plan currently in place, but his review will enable him to put his own paw prints on the NBN and make it his own

  29. [17
    dovif

    zoidlord

    If the ALP decide to be obstructionist and think it is good idea to force the electorate to decide again (a clear 54-46 landslide) after 1/2 a year. I fully expect the ALP to be completely decimated and most ALP supports to go to Palmer]

    Dream on. The dero mob have already shown they haven’t a clue. It won’t belong and the country will be aching for a return to sane, accountable and positive government.

  30. ru

    [They don’t get a vote, ALP members do. I knew this tripe would emerge. ]

    That still doesn’t explain why Labor caucus would vote for the person who is less popular amongst Labor voters and the general population.

    Don’t they want to win?

  31. I think the Labor leadership contest is helping Labor’s poll recovery. The public is seeing positive images of Labor reforming itself and choosing between two good candidates.

  32. [That still doesn’t explain why Labor caucus would vote for the person who is less popular amongst Labor voters and the general population.

    Don’t they want to win?]

    When was leadership about being populist? I have not decided who I will vote for yet, but I will not make my decision on who is popular.

    The Bay City Rollers were popular too.

  33. Fran….at the risk of making the Government sound like a garage band…there are many possibilities:

    The Fakes
    The Deros
    The Delinquents
    The Shame
    The 1920’s
    The Horror
    The Mistake
    Ohhhh, nooooo

    And my favourites…as in “Ewww, look what cat brought in!!”

    The Retch
    The Stink
    The Yuk

  34. [43
    Psephos

    I think the Labor leadership contest is helping Labor’s poll recovery. The public is seeing positive images of Labor reforming itself and choosing between two good candidates.]

    I agree…and meanwhile The Yuk-tards are surprising on the downside….not only do they under-promise, the also manage to under-deliver.

  35. ruawake

    Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Does anyone know who is doing Turnbull’s strategic review of NBN Co?
    ———————————————-

    Goodwin Grech???

Comments Page 1 of 66
1 2 66

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *