Morgan and Essential polls

Neither Morgan nor Essential finds the government enjoying much of a honeymoon, while Morgan has Anthony Albanese well ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Labor leader.

Morgan has published its first multi-mode poll since the election, and Essential its second online poll (the latter will henceforth publish on Tuesdays rather than Mondays). Even if you doubt the value of voting intention polling at this point of the cycle, the results are of interest with respect to the Labor leadership. If you don’t doubt the value of voting intention polling, the results are of interest in pointing to a weak Coalition honeymoon.

Starting with voting intention:

• Essential Research has the Coalition lead at 51-49 on the current two-week rolling average, combining results from 1042 respondents in this week’s survey from Thursday to Sunday and 844 from the week before. This leaves the Coalition two points down on a less than spectacular showing last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady on 9%.

• The Morgan SMS, online and face-to-face poll of 2999 respondents, conducted from Saturday to Monday, has the Coalition on 43.5%, Labor on 34%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 4%. This compares with election results on current counting of 45.6%, 33.4%, 8.6% and 5.5%. This translates into a headline two-party figure of 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s a more comfortable 52.5-47.5 on preferences from the September 7 election (though I’m not sure exactly how minor party preference splits were determined given all the votes aren’t in). It is of course enormously unlikely that minor party preference allocations would have changed so dramatically over a fortnight, a further pointer to the dubiousness of respondent-allocation.

• Morgan has good news for Anthony Albanese, who is favoured over Bill Shorten 41% to 23% among all voters, 46% to 32% among Labor voters, 38% to 18% among Coalition voters and 48% to 12% among Greens voters. The gap is widest and narrowest and Albanese and Shorten’s respective home states of New South Wales and Victoria. The qualitative findings here are unusually interesting: “Electors who preferred Anthony Albanese often mentioned Shorten’s role in the demise of former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten’s strong links to the unions, and also his links to the Governor-General as well as Albanese’s better policy expertise, experience and personality.”

• Essential finds Tony Abbott with similarly modest leads as preferred prime minister over both Albanese (37-31) and Shorten (37-32).

• Essential at least has had a bounce on personal approval, in net terms at least – his approval is up only one point since his last poll as Opposition Leader on September 2 to 41%, but his disapproval is down 13% to 36% (making for a big increase in “don’t know”.

• Essential finds 45% concerned about the lack of women in cabinet against 50% not concerned, with splits of 39-57 among men, 51-42 among women, 67-29 among Labor voters and 17-80 among Coalition voters.

• Also featured in Essential are questions on trust in use of personal information by various professions and organisations, and the value or otherwise of foreign investment in farm land.

UPDATE: Morgan has kindly provided me with its qualitative responses from the Labor leadership question, and I’ve run the responses through a word cloud generator. Note that in doing so I’ve merged together a couple of words like “don’t like”, “don’t trust” and “prime minister”. You can get a considerably bigger image by clicking on the images below.

First up, the 443 responses from Anthony Albanese supporters, for whom the primary reason for backing Albanese appears to have been Bill Shorten:

And now the 229 responses from Bill Shorten supporters:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,277 comments on “Morgan and Essential polls”

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  1. Imacca
    [Its his (Abbott’s) problem now]
    Agreed and many thanks to Rudd & Gillard for creating the problem but my point was that posters here would like to see him fail even if it’s to our country’s detriment, despite the twin dickheads Carr and Rudd going for broke on “they’re mostly economic country shoppers/send ’em to PNG forever”. So what’s happened that you want to see Abbott fail to stem the tide? You’re all back to being bleeding hearty lefties and when he succeeds you can scream “cruel/let ’em all come here”. And Julie Bishop is just great – truly a case of a grown-up taking over from a fraud like Carr, and beforehand Rudd.

  2. Z
    [Rudd/Gillard didn’t create the issue.]
    Oh yes they did by changing the rules and then repetitively and continually refusing to re-adopt proven coalition policies until it was too late. But ignoring this, admit this at least:
    you wanna see Abott fail and yiou prefer to see Australia continue to get plenty of boat arrivals, correct? Screw the country as long as Libs fail (which they won’t).

  3. @Mick77/3253


    And what’s happening now, even if they do implement the rules, boats are still sinking.

    This means the policy is not working.

    Abbott has failed, because he has silenced his ministers.

  4. Mick77, i see by you words you are identifying as a complete loon. That’s cool, takes people like that to make the world go round.

    Interesting that you seem sooooo concerned that people want to see :monkey: fail to stop the boats as he has unconditionally promised. I take it that you were just as disgusted when :monkey: , Morricum and Co were talking up how useless the ALP’s policies, and trying to publicly undermine them, and encouraging people smugglers pre election?

    Or you could just be a hypocrite twat?

  5. Z
    Again so you wanna see Abbott fail to stop the boats, correct? How about a yay or nay on that?
    After one week he hasn’t failed nor has he succeeded yet but you lefties are praying for failure and swarms of boats in true hypocritical Labor rusted-on fashion. Anyway it’s fun to watch – particularly since the Libs will stop the boats, “whatever it takes”, as you Laborites would say.

  6. imacca
    Anyone sitting here past midnight claiming that the Libs are making political capital out of deaths in Indonesia is hardly qualified to determine whether others are bonkers. You claimed this so can you tell us what it’s based on?

  7. @Mick77/3257

    Oh dear, Mick is accusing me of being rusted on hypocritical labor 😛

    No what I want is a better alternative.

    Offshoring is not working.

  8. Z
    Dunno why I wasted keystrokes on you. Responding to questions isn’t your strong point but I’ll take that as a: yes, you’d like to see boats arriving and drownings rather than a Libs success in stopping the boats.

  9. RE Boat people… an international problem
    Only last night the BBC and Al Jessera both looked at the 1200 people who have turned up this week alone….1200 …from Syria …into Sicily and adjacent islands and are now moving to the Italian mainland

    More than 200.000 have entered Italy since the wars in Libya./Syria

    As for Zoilord and other arguing with MICK 77 it’s a waste of time as he always resorts to abuse of other posters
    (Has he described his critics as neo-Nazis yet.?..that a fovourite term of abuse !…if that fails he will introduce Hitler into the debate …never fails !)..yes even about asylum seekers !!

  10. Re leak of minutes of meeting with Bishop _________
    So the Indons have said “sorry” that the minutes of the metting at the UN with their F Minister and Bishop were”accidently” leaked to the media,,,and they were discrediting to Bishopwere they …surprise surprise surprise ?

    I will wait with interest to see Bishop and Abbott in Jakarta next week…i think they will get a frosty reception there

  11. [whether others are bonkers. You claimed this so can you tell us what it’s based on?]

    Exhibit a-z:

    [And Julie Bishop is just great ]

    Case closed. 🙂

  12. [She certainly bangs a good gavel,]

    I’m sure her impressive banging……of gavels will impress them no end at the UN.

    Who will speak up for the poor abused gavels being banged by the Bishop though?? 🙂

  13. [Oh dear, Sean joins Mick77.]

    Have they been spotted in the same room together?? Poor Mick also seems to think everyone is in his time zone and bases abuse on that. He should, perhaps seek to broaden what laughably passes for his mind and go easier on assumptions.

  14. Micks completely right of course.

    It seems there are those here who pray for failure on the boats issue just to puff themselves up.

    Very very sad really. Success in turning back boats is spun as being a “stuff up” by the Indonesias… yeah right. Pathetic, desperate stuff.

    What will week 2 of Sovereign Borders bring us from the left hate crowd?

  15. [Offshoring is not working.]

    9 Days in and you’ve made a decision.

    Actually you decided anything the coalition would do to stop the boats would be a failure before they even announced it.

    Labors had 6 years to stop the boats. You lost control of our borders. Now the adults are back in charge and they get at least 12 months to prove their worth. The proof is in the pudding as they say and the only thing that will matter at the end of that 12 months is boat arrival numbers. No spin, no excuses.

  16. :monkey: raises white flag on housing affordability.

    [“If housing prices go up, sure that makes it harder to get into the market, but it also means that everyone who is in the market has a more valuable asset.”]

    And looking a bit sick for the promised cuts to energy costs from a repeal of the Carbon Price.

    Remember :monkey: No Excuses.

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