Morgan and Essential polls

Neither Morgan nor Essential finds the government enjoying much of a honeymoon, while Morgan has Anthony Albanese well ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Labor leader.

Morgan has published its first multi-mode poll since the election, and Essential its second online poll (the latter will henceforth publish on Tuesdays rather than Mondays). Even if you doubt the value of voting intention polling at this point of the cycle, the results are of interest with respect to the Labor leadership. If you don’t doubt the value of voting intention polling, the results are of interest in pointing to a weak Coalition honeymoon.

Starting with voting intention:

• Essential Research has the Coalition lead at 51-49 on the current two-week rolling average, combining results from 1042 respondents in this week’s survey from Thursday to Sunday and 844 from the week before. This leaves the Coalition two points down on a less than spectacular showing last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady on 9%.

• The Morgan SMS, online and face-to-face poll of 2999 respondents, conducted from Saturday to Monday, has the Coalition on 43.5%, Labor on 34%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 4%. This compares with election results on current counting of 45.6%, 33.4%, 8.6% and 5.5%. This translates into a headline two-party figure of 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s a more comfortable 52.5-47.5 on preferences from the September 7 election (though I’m not sure exactly how minor party preference splits were determined given all the votes aren’t in). It is of course enormously unlikely that minor party preference allocations would have changed so dramatically over a fortnight, a further pointer to the dubiousness of respondent-allocation.

• Morgan has good news for Anthony Albanese, who is favoured over Bill Shorten 41% to 23% among all voters, 46% to 32% among Labor voters, 38% to 18% among Coalition voters and 48% to 12% among Greens voters. The gap is widest and narrowest and Albanese and Shorten’s respective home states of New South Wales and Victoria. The qualitative findings here are unusually interesting: “Electors who preferred Anthony Albanese often mentioned Shorten’s role in the demise of former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten’s strong links to the unions, and also his links to the Governor-General as well as Albanese’s better policy expertise, experience and personality.”

• Essential finds Tony Abbott with similarly modest leads as preferred prime minister over both Albanese (37-31) and Shorten (37-32).

• Essential at least has had a bounce on personal approval, in net terms at least – his approval is up only one point since his last poll as Opposition Leader on September 2 to 41%, but his disapproval is down 13% to 36% (making for a big increase in “don’t know”.

• Essential finds 45% concerned about the lack of women in cabinet against 50% not concerned, with splits of 39-57 among men, 51-42 among women, 67-29 among Labor voters and 17-80 among Coalition voters.

• Also featured in Essential are questions on trust in use of personal information by various professions and organisations, and the value or otherwise of foreign investment in farm land.

UPDATE: Morgan has kindly provided me with its qualitative responses from the Labor leadership question, and I’ve run the responses through a word cloud generator. Note that in doing so I’ve merged together a couple of words like “don’t like”, “don’t trust” and “prime minister”. You can get a considerably bigger image by clicking on the images below.

First up, the 443 responses from Anthony Albanese supporters, for whom the primary reason for backing Albanese appears to have been Bill Shorten:

And now the 229 responses from Bill Shorten supporters:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,277 comments on “Morgan and Essential polls”

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  1. “@George_Roberts: Initial information: Local Indonesian police say 15 asylum seekers dead off the south coast of west Java. 25 survivors.”

    retweeted by ABC News

  2. been trawling the Indonesian newspapers, the main ones don’t have anything on either boat drownings or the diplomatic fiasco

    Pikir Rakyat (voice of the people) has these articles, with Google transalte applied

    [Vessel Sink, 15 Illegal Immigrants Killed

    Friday, 09/27/2013 – 18:35
    CIANJUR (AFP). – A total of 15 illegal immigrants found stranded on beach conditions died at Kampung Genggong, Sirnalaut Village, District Agrabinta, Cianjur regency, Friday (09/27/2013) at 11:00 pm. In addition, at least 25 of whom survived after a boat carrying from Sukabumi direction that would take them to Chrismast Island, Australia sank in waters Tegalbuled, Kab. Sukabumi.

    “The chances of them was swept away after their boat sank in waters Tegalbuled. Several of the survivors being able to swim up to shore Sirnalaut,” said Head Agrabinta, Rus Ruskandar told reporters.

    Until now, the word Rus, can not be ascertained because the search was conducted. From the information obtained them aboard the barge that will take them to the waters off the island of Chrismast.

    “Survivors temporarily accommodated in people’s homes. Till now the evacuation process is still going on because there’s more victims feared washed downstream. We are also coordinating with the police station officials. Currently we assisted residents standby at the site for fear there are still victims again, “he said.

    Agrabinta police chief, Adjunct Warsono commissioner said the victim the cut as many as 15 people and everything was put into a body bag and taken to the health center Agrabinta. “We do not know the death toll would carry around because we are still waiting for direction from Sukabumi district police,” he said. (A-186/A-88) ***

    WEST JAVA]

    on the fiasco

    [About the Transit Asylum Seekers in Indonesia
    Australian PM Denies There Diplomatic Tensions with RI

    Friday, 09/27/2013 – 19:04
    SYDNEY (AFP). – Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has denied the existence of diplomatic tensions with Indonesia regarding the Australian asylum seeker policy.

    Australia’s new leader says the asylum seekers who arrive by boat will be returned to Indonesia.

    Abbott issued the rebuttal on Friday (27/09/2013), ahead of an official visit to Indonesia.

    According to him, the issue of asylum seekers “minor issue” and would not affect bilateral relations.

    Comment was made not long after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia based on media reports, says no concern that Indonesia intends to publish the Australian plan.

    Summary reports of a private meeting between Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop el mailed by Marty office.

    In the el post mentioned that the two ministers discussed plans to restore the Australian Coalition immigrant ship and that Australia would like to resolve this issue “behind the scenes” and “the secret.”

    Australia is also written that the plan could jeopardize the trust and cooperation between the two countries.

    Friday (27/9) The Indonesian Foreign Ministry issued a “correction” and said that the information in the summary memorandum was not intended for the media and that the meeting is confidential and no press statement.

    Christmas Island in Australia has long been a destination of asylum seekers.

    In recent months, there are a number of ships that sank in the middle of the journey to Australia from Indonesia.

    The majority of asylum seekers from Sri Lanka, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Policies to restore the ship was announced after the inauguration of Abbott in Canberra last week and the military assigned to lead this operation.

    Abbott said at the time that he wanted to “send a message to people smugglers that starting today their business is over.”

    Abbott will visit Indonesia on Monday (30 September) to meet with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. (Bbc/A-88) ***]

    http://www.pikiran-rakyat.com/node/252622

  3. Boerwar:

    Interesting reporting angle by The Australian! The paper definitely makes it seem as though there is bad diplomatic blood between the two countries.

  4. [Pikir Rakyat (voice of the people) has these articles, with Google transalte applied]

    of course it is Pikiran Rakyat – The People’s Thinking

    my recollection of this newspaper was it was a tabloid. And Google translate does a reasonable job, though not perfect…

  5. [3192
    confessions

    Boerwar:

    ‘Fighting momentum’ was an indeed bizarre thing to say.

    Johnston gives the impression that he’s not the brightest spark around.]

    He is an accident in waiting, is DJ. Not for him the dull and thankless task of running his Department. He wants to fight someone. Not that he knows the first thing about fighting. It’s just that he imagines armed conflict may give him a chance to strut – to show us what he thinks he’s made of.

    Well, it would give him a chance to show that others are made of stern stuff and he could then bask their reflected glory. Deep down, he would like it if he had a uniform too, like any commander. Perhaps a three pointed hat with cockade would look well at Senate Estimates. Tailored breeches would appeal despite the flabbiness of his once-loping thighs. A top coat with braided epaulettes and doubled cuffs would suffice to cover the undulations of his ample paunch. He could be a Pugwash, shod in shiny buckled Wellingtons, a cutlass at his side.

    He’ll show em, whoever they are.

  6. [ bemused
    Posted Friday, September 27, 2013 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    .
    So what’s your solution frednk?]

    Refugees are on the move, and have always been on the move, read the history of the Jews (first testament)if you want an old example. What has changed is the world is now small enough for Australian to be a destination, and all the right wing rat-bags won’t change that.

    We are facing what many countries have faced fro decades; our responce to date has cost us billions and wasted lives.

    If they are in our territorial waters rescue as we should. If they are in international waters rescue as required by international law. If they are in Indonesia’s waters they are not our problem.

    If they are willing to take the risk don’t first try and turn them into nut cases, which is basically the current policy.

    If you don’t drown we are going to turn you into a nut case because we don’t like the fact that you might drown, Australian’s are supposed to accept such bull dust?

    Let them work under conditions that suit our economy, under a temporary protection visa, nothing wrong with temporary protection but they should be able to work to prove they can live in Australian society.

    We should be using this period to help them to integrate not turn them into nut cases.

    A refugee camp with a bit more style is they way I would sell it. If they work out give them residence, if they don’t work out you have a problem, but there are less to lock up than the current policy creates.

    No it is not an ideal solution, but nor is turn back the boats, that is to try and disconnect Australia from humanity. That in the long term is not an option, it only makes for good slogans.

    Be happy, yes we are more accessible, but you still need a middle class income to do it. The rich of cause have business migration.

  7. briefly

    He has to:

    (1) reduce our fighting momentum by getting us out of Afghanistan by negotiating an honourable retreat with the Taliban

    (2) work out what we are going to do for a fighter/bomber platform instead of the JSF.

    (3) work out how to save $20-$30 billion by not building the next gen subs in Adelaide

    (4) continue the excellent work of Smith in cleaning up Defence culture.

  8. [(4) continue the excellent work of Smith in cleaning up Defence culture.]

    Given his virtual silence on any of those cultural issues, I don’t hold much hope of that happening.

  9. Boerwar/3211

    I agree on all points. Instead he will leave Afghanistan because others have decided that it’s all over. He will persist with the JSF and the subs; and he will see the Smith reforms peter out. Since Abbott has promised to roughly double Defence spending, he will be able to make a bigger splash in the bath-tub.

  10. My hope with Johmstone is that he lets guys who say “the standard you walk past is the one you accept”, get on with it.

    That way he can look good by taking some of the credit for Smith’s achievements.
    Probably too smart thinking though.

  11. [George Roberts ‏@George_Roberts 2m
    Indonesia’s Metro TV is running stories on PM Abbott’s #asylum seeker policies incl graphics of how it “violates indonesian sovereignty”]

  12. “@George_Roberts: Indonesia’s Metro TV is running stories on PM Abbott’s #asylum seeker policies incl graphics of how it “violates indonesian sovereignty””

  13. just on Senator David Johnson, our new Defence Minister, I have watched him for a long time in Senate Estimates. His approach is:

    1) Annoyingly use the term “we” when asking the Defence Chiefs what “we are doing about that” as if he is one of them.
    2) Spend endless time on the “toys for the boys” procurement minutae.
    3) The highlight contribution being to ask why we did not deploy our tanks in Afghanistan? Answer being, its too hilly and its an asynchronous conflict.

    Heaven help us if Abbott imitates his mentor JWH and gets us into a war.

  14. b and c….

    He is a very small flame in a dimly-lit cabinet. Defence is full of hard problems and his solution will be more money and the illusion of “threats”….alarming really that someone so dim should be given so much money and such a large potential to cause trouble…

  15. Night Boerwar

    [George Roberts Indonesia’s Metro TV is running stories on PM Abbott’s #asylum seeker policies incl graphics of how it “violates indonesian sovereignty”]

  16. sprocket…well observed. He’s aching to show he can “command”, be a leader among leaders…he’s a Hapsburg who thinks he’s a Napoleon.

  17. “@julieposetti: “They should be seen for what value they can add not viewed as toxic waste” UN’s Navi Pillay on Australia’s view of #asylumseekers #lateline”

  18. [Emma Alberici
    @ScottMorrisonMP How can we report accurately without what was once easily accessible information?]

    [@albericie @ScottMorrisonMP Isn’t the Minister’s position clearly stated that they don’t want smugglers to know what’s going on.]

    [Emma Alberici @news_watcher1 @ScottMorrisonMP I’m pretty sure the smugglers know what’s going on .. as I understand it they put the people on the boats!]

  19. this will be interesting to see what the Indonesians do

    [Meanwhile, Australian authorities are attempting to return a second group of asylum seekers to Indonesia after rescuing them at sea.

    The Australian Customs ship, ACV Triton, is attempting to get permission to enter Indonesian waters to offload 31 asylum seekers rescued overnight.

    If permission is granted it will be the second time since yesterday that Australian rescue authorities have returned asylum seekers to Indonesia.

    The Triton, is waiting off the coast of Timor for permission to enter Indonesian waters.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-27/asylum-seekers-drown-as-boat-capsizes-off-java/4986422

  20. victoria

    No. I think she wanted to though.

    The question she asked to get the slamming comment from UN High Commissioner was constructed in a way that made it look like Abbott was calling AS a passing irritant and not the relationship situation.

  21. [3236
    sprocket_

    this will be interesting to see what the Indonesians do

    Meanwhile, Australian authorities are attempting to return a second group of asylum seekers to Indonesia after rescuing them at sea.

    The Australian Customs ship, ACV Triton, is attempting to get permission to enter Indonesian waters to offload 31 asylum seekers rescued overnight.

    If permission is granted it will be the second time since yesterday that Australian rescue authorities have returned asylum seekers to Indonesia.

    The Triton, is waiting off the coast of Timor for permission to enter Indonesian waters.]

    This is reminiscent of the Pacific Viking episode that brought Rudd to a sudden halt.

    Here we are, just as Abbott is about to visit Jakarta, now hoping he can persuade Indonesia to do what they have never been willing to do.

    Of course, there is a sense in which nearly every boat is “rescued” by the Navy. So if they accept that Australia can return those who have been “rescued”, then just about all asylum seekers will be returned.

    Will Jakarta concede on this?

  22. [ Map RSS
    Asylum seekers drown as boat capsizes off Java
    By Indonesia correspondent George Roberts, staff
    Posted 29 minutes ago | Updated 24 minutes ago

    Indonesian rescue authorities say 15 asylum seekers died when their boat sank off the south coast of west Java.
    ]
    Can not believe the Coalition government tried to reap political capital from this. Scum.

  23. [Permission is not going to be granted. Not with Metro TV running the sovereignty line.]

    Will be interesting if that’s the case. :monkeys: turn do deal with the “Oceanic Viking” scenario the same as Rudd had to.

    And Capt Kirk, he aint. 🙂

  24. Paaptsef
    [Can not believe the Coalition government tried to reap political capital from this. ]
    In what way?

    Reading tonight’s posts it seems that all the Lib hating lefties here are hoping that Abbott screws up and that Oz gets screwed with waves of illegals, and you’re cheering for that outcome. How disappointed you’ll be when the solution works and how strange that only a few weeks ago you were cheering at Rudd’s “cruel but necessary” measure to condemn all the illegals to life in the PNG hell-hole.

    Meanwhile Julie Bishop is proving to be a great FM on the world stage as I predicted and after years of a***e licking of third-world countries by Rudd and Carr, she’s the one who gets the kudos for her UNSC presidency, even of the forum is a joke. Rudd/Carr spent millions of our money on this joke and even started voting with the EU unprincipled lefties scum to get the spot but now it’s Julie’s domain. Hallelujah.

  25. [Lib hating lefties here are hoping that Abbott screws up and that Oz gets screwed with waves of illegals]

    Its his problem now. 🙂 No Excuses remember. His best bet is to continue the ALP’s policies and then try and take credit, but that’s pretty much standard Lib practice anyway.

    [Meanwhile Julie Bishop is proving to be a great FM on the world stage ]

    You are joking surely? Serial Shadow Stuff up, “Yes we all do it”, “You only disagree because you are stupid and dont understand”, Mesma??

    [she’s the one who gets the kudos for her UNSC presidency]

    Handed to her with no effort or support on her part.

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