Morgan and Essential polls

Neither Morgan nor Essential finds the government enjoying much of a honeymoon, while Morgan has Anthony Albanese well ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Labor leader.

Morgan has published its first multi-mode poll since the election, and Essential its second online poll (the latter will henceforth publish on Tuesdays rather than Mondays). Even if you doubt the value of voting intention polling at this point of the cycle, the results are of interest with respect to the Labor leadership. If you don’t doubt the value of voting intention polling, the results are of interest in pointing to a weak Coalition honeymoon.

Starting with voting intention:

• Essential Research has the Coalition lead at 51-49 on the current two-week rolling average, combining results from 1042 respondents in this week’s survey from Thursday to Sunday and 844 from the week before. This leaves the Coalition two points down on a less than spectacular showing last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady on 9%.

• The Morgan SMS, online and face-to-face poll of 2999 respondents, conducted from Saturday to Monday, has the Coalition on 43.5%, Labor on 34%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 4%. This compares with election results on current counting of 45.6%, 33.4%, 8.6% and 5.5%. This translates into a headline two-party figure of 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s a more comfortable 52.5-47.5 on preferences from the September 7 election (though I’m not sure exactly how minor party preference splits were determined given all the votes aren’t in). It is of course enormously unlikely that minor party preference allocations would have changed so dramatically over a fortnight, a further pointer to the dubiousness of respondent-allocation.

• Morgan has good news for Anthony Albanese, who is favoured over Bill Shorten 41% to 23% among all voters, 46% to 32% among Labor voters, 38% to 18% among Coalition voters and 48% to 12% among Greens voters. The gap is widest and narrowest and Albanese and Shorten’s respective home states of New South Wales and Victoria. The qualitative findings here are unusually interesting: “Electors who preferred Anthony Albanese often mentioned Shorten’s role in the demise of former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten’s strong links to the unions, and also his links to the Governor-General as well as Albanese’s better policy expertise, experience and personality.”

• Essential finds Tony Abbott with similarly modest leads as preferred prime minister over both Albanese (37-31) and Shorten (37-32).

• Essential at least has had a bounce on personal approval, in net terms at least – his approval is up only one point since his last poll as Opposition Leader on September 2 to 41%, but his disapproval is down 13% to 36% (making for a big increase in “don’t know”.

• Essential finds 45% concerned about the lack of women in cabinet against 50% not concerned, with splits of 39-57 among men, 51-42 among women, 67-29 among Labor voters and 17-80 among Coalition voters.

• Also featured in Essential are questions on trust in use of personal information by various professions and organisations, and the value or otherwise of foreign investment in farm land.

UPDATE: Morgan has kindly provided me with its qualitative responses from the Labor leadership question, and I’ve run the responses through a word cloud generator. Note that in doing so I’ve merged together a couple of words like “don’t like”, “don’t trust” and “prime minister”. You can get a considerably bigger image by clicking on the images below.

First up, the 443 responses from Anthony Albanese supporters, for whom the primary reason for backing Albanese appears to have been Bill Shorten:

And now the 229 responses from Bill Shorten supporters:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,277 comments on “Morgan and Essential polls”

Comments Page 3 of 66
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  1. Psephos,

    If the ALP still haven’t learned the lessons of dis-unity and il-discipline and can’t reconcile with common sense they don’t deserve to ever be in Govt.

  3. [ Funnily enough, Labor have been upbeat since the election loss]

    They had feared an even worse result. Despite some polls to the contrary, they held their western Sydney heartland – and the jobs of several high-profile frontbenchers along with it.

  4. Geoff

    Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    Are you totally lacking in English comprehension ???? or just dumb …..

    woop the trolls are getting rowdy!

    Geoff – old saying : I think you need to read it ….

    Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt

  7. Abbott has stuffed good relations with Indonesia. He can claw this back but it will take time, effort and a constructive POV. To date, he has lacked the latter entirely.

    Abbott has also stuffed Australia’s climate. The very first month of his prime ministership is the hottest September on record.

    He needs to get cracking on climate or he will look like a real dill.

  11. [Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt]

    haha That is some trolling words right there.

    Please mr Troll do not spit roast me!

  14. [91…Fran Barlow]

    I like “Wreckers” as well. It is very apt and has many complimentary terms…The Wrecked, the Wreckage, the Wrecking. It goes with looting and sacking, with pillage, plunder, tribute and ransom. Of course, there will also be a hardy breed of resistors, the Unwrecked.

    🙂

  16. Lizzie @27

    David Marr was I/Vd on RN yesterday about his Guardian essay about the Pug Monkey’s confessor, Pell.

    One question to Marr was why did he think Abbott endorsed the RC on Child Sex Abuse when Pell, his mate , was so against it.

    Marr replied that Abbott will/would/did do anything to further his quest for power.

    This includes forsaking Pellism, selling his mother etc …… anything but selling his own arse (can we infer a homophobia anxiety here, as a result of some personal inner conflicts about one’s own sexual identity)

  17. Can’t really understand why anyone interested in the future of the ALP should be expressing concern about the democratic ballot to select the new leader…

    It’s a positive and progressive step which, as far as I can tell, has been enthusiastically embraced by Caucus & Rank & File members. No negative noises coming out of the unions either..

    A sensible & healthy initiative for which Rudd deserves credit.

  18. feeney

    Tsk, tsk, tsk. You know that William loathes uncouth posters in general and stupid uncouth posters in particular. Why do you continue to pain him so?

    The Informal Party is going gangbusters, you will be pleased to learn. It achieved the highest vote on record, just like September is the hottest month on record, our winter was the hottest winter on record and our summer was our hottest summer on record. Pity Rudd had faffed his lines on AGW or all that would have been killer stuff during the election.

    IMHO, both Shorten and Albanese more or less meet the Informal Party basic tests for the prime ministership:

    (1) They are honest
    (2) They have integrity
    (3) They show respect for others
    (4) They demonstrate a committment to Labor values
    (5) They demonstrate a committment to Labor principles
    (6) They demonstrate a committment to Labor policies.

    Now, I am not saying that they are 100% on this. No party leader could possibly be. But I do assert that they are more or less in the ballpark.

    Unlike Rudd, who is mad and Abbott who is bad.

  19. The ALP may also at the moment be taking comfort from the inference (which could quite plausibly be drawn from its better than expected performance in western Sydney seats) that the influence of Mr Murdoch’s newspapers is not as great as some had feared, and probably in decline.

  24. Boerwar

    What we need to know is what the yanks did after they pulled a time out card. 46 hours later their upwind barge had became a speedboat.

  25. PS: I’ve also donated to the Climate Council, though I really believe it’s Govt’s duty & responsibility to ensure all Aussies get un-biased, scientifically based information on such a vital & urgent issue…

    This Govt is imo,criminally negligent in willfully denying this information to its citizens…

  26. https://theconversation.com/communicating-climate-change-is-great-value-for-money-18547

    [Greg Hunt, the new Minister for the Environment, said he axed the Commission last Thursday as a cost cutting measure, not an ideological statement.

    If we take the minister at his word, even the most hard-headed economic rationalist would struggle with his explanation. According to the Insurance Council of Australia , of the nine most costly extreme weather disasters in Australia, seven have occurred in the last 14 years. Dealing with them cost A$13.17 billion dollars. Floods, hailstorms, cyclones, firestorms … not much economic growth is happening when these events strike.]

  27. [101
    Rex Douglas

    Psephos,

    If the ALP still haven’t learned the lessons of dis-unity and il-discipline and can’t reconcile with common sense they don’t deserve to ever be in Govt.]

    There is no ill-discipline. Labor are not in a dogfight, they’re running an election – a process that will re-build unity and shared loyalty. Both sides – the winners and the losers – will have a stake in the result and the whole party will be strengthened as a result.

  29. [A website just for you Geoff Einstein]

    Haha hasn’t anyone told you not to give names to your food?
    You might too attached to me and not want to eat me.

  30. psyclaw

    I’m now wondering whether Abbott will reverse some of the recent decisions when he realises how unpopular they are. He’s never been afraid of inconsistency before. 🙂

  33. [Australian Labor ‏@AustralianLabor 3h
    The first #laborleader forum with both @AlboMP & @BillShortenMP is at 7:30 EST tonight from UTS in Sydney. Sky and ABC24 both showing it.]

  34. Geoff

    Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    A website just for you Geoff Einstein

    You might too attached to me and not want to eat me.

    ————————————————

    Actually I thought the PIG was a good likeness !!!!

    But you looked so cute ….. I did not have the heart to eat you 🙂

  35. briefly,

    It is re-generating internal rivalry in the voters minds – the last thing voters should be witnessing.

    Way too much lipstick being applied to this pig.

  36. Good grief, is there anything more shit-boring and predictable than Abbott starting a culture war over national history. YAWN.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/hes-wrong-historians-say-as-tony-abbott-reignites-history-wars-20130903-2t3bc.html

    Again: take the piss out of him. Dont get drawn in. He just cant be taken seriously by a modern progressive Australia, he’s not a threat to it. Government doesnt ‘decide’ civic culture in the end.

  37. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 15m

    #Morgan Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50.5 ALP 49.5 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14m

    #Morgan Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 43.5 ALP 34 GRN 10.5 PUP 4 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14m

    #Morgan Poll Preferred ALP Leader: Albanese 41 Shorten 23 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 13m

    #Morgan Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Albanese 46 Shorten 32 #auspol

  38. @markjs 125:

    [I’ve also donated to the Climate Council, though I really believe it’s Govt’s duty & responsibility to ensure all Aussies get un-biased, scientifically based information on such a vital & urgent issue…]

    I have also donated. Because fuck Tony Abbott if he thinks he can tell me that we’re not spending my money on getting un-biased, scientifically based information on such a vital & urgent issue. I’ll bypass the government and fund it myself.

  40. Ive donated, and in the end, though a future ALP governemtn should restore it, there are some advantages to a fully independent of govt Climate Council.

    The unviersities should be encouraged to co-sponsor it.

  44. Good on you all for donating to the Climate Council. Our household has donated $50 as well. We mean to do this every quarter.

    I’m not a big fan of Flannery, but that’s beside the point, IMO. There’s a principle here that evidence-based policy should be supported.

  46. Hunt has booked savings from axing the Climate Comm. but he still wants similar info from BOM, CSIRO and others.

    Did Joe give him his pocket money to fund these organisations? Or has Matthias grabbed the lot?

  48. Since work is going to continue while the review of the NBN is done I hope the review of the NBN takes 3 years.

    By that time it will be connected at my place

  50. Lizzie

    I think that reversing his decisions is precisely the Pug Monkey’s modus operandi, or should I say it is precisely Credlin’s modus operandi.

    With an all encompassing veil of secrecy and non communication to the people, with all the ministers including Pugger hisself going to ground, with all ministers under a Credlin No-media-talk ban, the scene has been set to govern in the most opaque manner possible.

    He wants the moron electors to get their minds off government and politics so that he can do whatever he wants quietly and as incompetently as is necessary.

    This will include using any of the former government’s initiatives that suit his quest to reman in power regardless of his government’s efficacy.

    WE NEED AN ELECTION NOW!

    But his big problem will be his foot in mouth tendency. I have no doubt that on some stage, (hopefully an international stage and concerning a matter of some importance even to mug Australian electors), he’ll stuff up and become a national and international embarrassment.

    On that note, Lily Allen’s song about GWB (senior) is IMHO directly relevant to the Pug Monkey as he endeavours to stuff up the nation.

    You may have to cut and past????

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QCxyns1lrg

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