The AEC reports the count in Fairfax has ended with Clive Palmer 36 votes in front of Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. The scrutiny progress table still lists 107 pre-polls and seven postals as awaiting processing, but I guess these are the ones that have been “disallowed” (the numbers are about right in each case). Admitted to the count today were 304 pre-polls, which broke 178-126 to O’Brien, and 147 postals, which broke 85-62, in each case in line with the general trend of the pre-poll and postal count. That was only sufficient to chip 75 votes away from Palmer’s 111-vote margin from last night.
Assuming that result is not overturned on a recount, I would say this definitively settles the line-up of the new House of Representatives: 90 seats to the Coalition (58 Liberal, 22 Liberal National, nine Nationals and one Country Liberal), 55 to Labor, one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party, and two independents.
[Essential underestimated the Coalition vote by 1.4%]
Wasn’t Essential closest to the actual result for longer than the others – all those 53/54 – 48/47 results week in, week out.
Diogenes@120
It’s actually the polar opposite – you CANNOT be a member of Parliament if you hold “an office of profit under the crown”, which is the classic definition of a public servant. As a result there are (or at least used to be) complex provisions in public service regulations to enable people who go from being public servants to parliamentarians and then back again (after defeat or not standing at an election)have things like their continuity of service preserved.
The origin of the principle is that being a servant of the King was seen to be a disqualification from being a parliamentarian as the parliament stood as a restraint on the King and the public servant would hence have divided loyalties and may be corrupt when making decisions.
ML
And bludger track was close to spot on in the end both in 2PP% and seats, amazing. Again – well done William. Labor’s predicted 57 was reduced by Melb which went to a watermelon plus an indie getting in.
[What Abbott/Morrison won’t tell you.
7-13 Sep 5boats 481refugees
14-20 Sep 3boats 306 refugees]
[Wasn’t Essential closest to the actual result for longer than the others – all those 53/54 – 48/47 results week in, week out.]
Quite possibly, you will need a proper pseph like Kevin B or William or Antony to look at a “duration of rightness analysis”!
[And bludger track was close to spot on in the end both in 2PP% and seats, amazing. Again – well done William. Labor’s predicted 57 was reduced by Melb which went to a watermelon plus an indie getting in.]
More accurately, it undershot on Coalition gains from Labor by two seats (one in New South Wales and one in Queensland), but Indi and Fairfax rendered the Coalition total “correct”.
Interesting how the allegations against the former Liberal Shaw never came out before the election.
Now we find that NSW Liberals offices have been raided by the ICAC and linked to alleged corruption.
All these Liberals involved (allegedly) in corruption and it happened within days of Abbott being sworn in.
I do not think that this is by chance.
The other interesting thing I have noticed is that the preference flow is quite different this election than 2010 (and 2010 was pretty consistent with previous elections from memory):
Likely 2013 primary vote result:
ALP 33.4%
LNP 45.6%
GRN 8.6%
OTH 12.4%
This would have given 54.8% using 2010 preference flows whereas it will be ~53.6% in 2013.
This is probably going to be due to the surge of Palmer and his preferences (being the bulk of others @5.5% of 12.4%) not going to the Coalition as strongly as the 60% in 2010.
Credit where credit is due. Bludger track was a good indicator. Well done William.
157
The Shaw charges look as though they have been sat on for months. This reduces the chance of any conviction occurring in time to cause a Frankston by-election and thus a change of Government.
Palmer spent substantial amounts of money to become an MP. He’s not about to throw that away. I’m sure he will be a little Katter like with his attendance record, and I’m sot sure his constituents will see much of him. But he’s there for a reason. Now we will find out what it is!!
[briefly
putting aside modesty for a moment (a strange thing for me to do, I admit…) McGowan also benefitted from the fact that I wasn’t able to run as a candidate!! (the particular way this campaign went, with its focus on candidate forums, would have suited me to the ground, but it didn’t suit the skills set of our candidate, who would have done better in a more traditional Indi campaign).
It’s a weird situation – on one hand, I find myself saying ‘we should have done this or this during the campaign’ but on the other, if we had done, Mirabella might still have been there…
by zoomster on Sep 21, 2013 at 5:43 pm]
It seems that every small thing fell the right way for McGowan, zoomster.
[I do not think that this is by chance.]
The ABC were funny earlier on, they would not name the two politicians, they said Barry O did not know anything and it was News Ltd and Fairfax reports.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-21/nsw-premier-denies-knowledge-of-raids-on-offices-of-mps/4973036
No overtime for lawyers on Sat for the ABC, or begrudgingly reporting a commercial media scoop?
Re Bemused @146 – since those polls had a margin of error of about 2% (for sample size of about 2,000), we probably should regard any final poll that gave a Liberal 2PP in the region of 51.5% to 55.5% as being reasonably accurate. Only the Lonergan poll looks to be ‘wrong’ on that basis. Averaging all of the polls (effectively giving a larger sample size) gives a result of 53.56% – very close to the actual result which is 53.44% at this stage.
If we exclude the outlier Lonergan poll, we get 53.96%, so by and large the final polls, were slightly worse for the previous Government than the final result. I think there is normally a swing to the Coalition in the last few days of a Federal Campaign, although apparently not this time..
Wild weather forecast for Perth. http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/severe.shtml
Should make the Swams v Dockers game a slugfest!! The only time I really like watching Aussie Rules is when the weather conditions are atrocious!!
Not sure who this will favor tonight?
I’ll have a lot more to say on pollster accuracy when all the numbers are in. Two-party preferred can be a misleading yardstick, as it creates opportunities for serious errors on the primary vote to be cancelled out. For that matter, BludgerTrack achieved correctness in part because its errors on the primary vote (the Coalition about a point too low and the Greens about a point too high) were cancelled out by a preference model over-favourable to the Coalition. It’s interesting that BT had the Greens too high, because it worked off the assumption that polls were too favourable to the Greens already. That seems to have been even “truer” this time around.
New2This@149
I am aware of that piece of bad news thank you. 🙁
Two elections in a row I picked the seat count, but got it very wrong the one before.
William
[More accurately, it undershot on Coalition gains from Labor by two seats (one in New South Wales and one in Queensland), but Indi and Fairfax rendered the Coalition total “correct”.]
That’s of course exactly what I meant :)!
Given that there are always a few surprises in either direction, particularly when dealing with thin margins in individual seats or unusual situations, it is an amazing prediction based on proper analysis and your own well-honed techniques, unlike my gut-feel 94/55/1 and Meguire Bob’s 3/147/0. Now by how much are the Swannies gonna win tonight?
[New2This@149
Hey bemused can I remind you Tony Abbott is Prime Minister…]
And the country is in peril as a result
[Should make the Swams v Dockers game a slugfest!! ]
The front is forecast to hit Perth after the game.
William:
Indeed! Newspoll was withint 0.4% (or more accurately is likely to end up being within 0.4%) of the primary vote totals for the Coalition, the ALP, the Greens and Others.
Galaxy screwed up the Others vote (they had it at 11% when it will be about 12.4% but still got pretty close to the final TPP result).
Does anyone know what happened in Mallee? The swing listed by the AEC seems to suggest that the Liberals not only ran in 2010 against Forrest, but got a primary vote of 3%.
[Meguire Bob’s 3/147/0..]
I think it’s fair to say that in MB’s eyes, Labor had a moral victory if not a numerical one – more than a victory, an ethical walkover. So far, considering how TA has moved to suppress science and learning, to conceal the facts on boats and the climate, and to silence the voice of women, MB is looking pretty good.
🙂
And the Sex Part, the Greens, PUP and KAP have virtually the same primary vote.
The faint screams of “You didn’t tell us you were going to do that, Tony” from Liberals betrays an immense capacity for self-deception. Or else they were relying on the Coalition’s propensity to be deceitful and didn’t believe a word of what they read before the election.
How can Labor ever beat this.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-17496-160.htm
The AEC is still reporting -1 votes left to count in Fairfax!
I reckon they might want to fix that before the impending Palmer court case begins….
lizzie
I am not saying the Greens caused Black Saturday, i was referring to the planning rules which in many cases put environmental considerations ahead of safety from bushfires.
How this relates to the Greens is the perception rightly or wrongly that the Greens are seen as anti-clearing of bush particularly around houses and anti-hazard reduction.
Of course this overlooks a sad fact that places like Kinglake are regularly hit with severe bushfires which raises the sad question which i think was raised in the bushfire royal commission of not allowing houses to be re-built in high risk locations.
Tom the first and best
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
157
The Shaw charges look as though they have been sat on for months. This reduces the chance of any conviction occurring in time to cause a Frankston by-election and thus a change of Government.
====================================================
Based on the “standard” BoF went to the election with will he suspend these two? or stick to the tried and true policy of the Liberals – hypocrisy?
Will Baillieu suspend Shaw? If he does it will make for a hung Parliament.
lizzzie,
Remember, sex parts always hold up in acrise.
[Wendy Carlisle @Wendycarlisle 11m
Good investment “@InfernoJourno: Halliburton Pays $200,000 Fine for Destroying Gulf Spill Evidence http://bit.ly/16v7RX2 ” ]
I was told by a well-informed person last night that Labor’s tracking polls showed Labor picking up three or four seats in Brisbane (Brisbane, Forde, Bonner and possibly Longman) until week three of the campaign, when Labor’s numbers crashed, and the result was no gains and the loss of Petrie. What turned the polls was a sharp reaction against Rudd personally in Brisbane in that week. I was overseas at the time so I don’t recall what specific event, if any, might have triggered that.
ABC just reported that the Fairfax result is the closest in Australian political history.
ajm@152
Thanks ajm, that is delightful!
😀 😎
I see Clive’s party got 150 times more votes that the Secular (Diog) Party. 🙂
[ABC just reported that the Fairfax result is the closest in Australian political history.]
The ABC are wrong as usual.
Psephos
[and the loss of Petrie]
and Capricornia
Psephos,
That might have been where he dominated the religious guy on TV. Their audience always likes being told they are dick heads.
I want my 8c back!
Des Corcoran won Millicent (SA Lower House) in 1968 by 1 vote. It doesn’t get closer than that…
[Rose’s first claim is that the world is cooling. This is simply wrong. There’s long been a claim that global warming has stopped, but this too is wrong. Surface temperatures haven’t increased as much as they did a decade or so ago, but we now understand that the extra heat from global warming is getting stored in the oceans. Surface temperatures are a piece of the puzzle, but like their name implies, they don’t probe the depths of the problem. Remember too that nine of the 10 hottest years since 1880 have been in the past decade.]
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/09/10/climate_change_sea_ice_global_cooling_and_other_nonsense.html
Psephos
[week three of the campaign]
might have been soon after the Beattie stroke of genius which was in fact a collective groan.
Mod Lib @177,
That reminds me of this scene from the IT Crowd.
http://Www.youtube.com/watch?v=5n8IFfWukEg
[That might have been where he dominated the religious guy on TV.]
That was the final week of the campaign.
Week 3 came after he’d spent week 1 musing on Murdoch conspiracies, and week 2 on Liberal GST scare claims.
It was about week that the ALP campaign lost its way.
The first two weeks looked like it was going to be about the economy but the narrative seemed to change
Mod Lib,
Do you have change for $3 note?
week 3
I thought the Beattie preselection was a good choice at the time.
Rudd was on QandA on Sep 2nd, (Monday of the last week).
[ until week three of the campaign, when Labor’s numbers crashed ]
makeupgirlgate?