The AEC reports the count in Fairfax has ended with Clive Palmer 36 votes in front of Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. The scrutiny progress table still lists 107 pre-polls and seven postals as awaiting processing, but I guess these are the ones that have been “disallowed” (the numbers are about right in each case). Admitted to the count today were 304 pre-polls, which broke 178-126 to O’Brien, and 147 postals, which broke 85-62, in each case in line with the general trend of the pre-poll and postal count. That was only sufficient to chip 75 votes away from Palmer’s 111-vote margin from last night.
Assuming that result is not overturned on a recount, I would say this definitively settles the line-up of the new House of Representatives: 90 seats to the Coalition (58 Liberal, 22 Liberal National, nine Nationals and one Country Liberal), 55 to Labor, one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party, and two independents.
[A lot will be dependant on McGowan’s performance, of course.]
I wonder whether or not she will be taking some advice from the likes of Tony Windsor during her tenure?
ltep
[Show up once a month in the chamber to get checked off on the roll. Apart from that he can carry on with his normal work. ]
What about dealing with his constituents?
From previous thread:
zoomster@941
[Yay! Mike Carlton endorsing my idea…
Next, Labor must ensure the membership gets to vote on candidates for the upper houses, federal and state.]
I don’t mean to rain on your parade, but YOUR idea, or ideas very close to it have been floating around almost as long as I can remember.
But of course they never progressed because it always means those holding power need to give some of it up.
When did you tell Mike Carlton of YOUR idea?
It’s amazing to win a seat in the HoR with a brand new party and no previous experience in elected office and at the first attempt.
We are pretty smart in Longman for a mob of old farts.
I honestly don’t know why people here hold Palmer in such regard when he holds our electoral process in contempt.
davidwh
I don’t hold him in any regard. IMO he’s all mouth and trousers.
Davidwh, better than another LNP drone.
ru
[I am sure Clive will stick it out for 3 years, he is serious about his political party and its results have been remarkable in its first election, just a few months after it was created.]
I’ll have a sportsman’s bet with you that he doesn’t make it to the next election.
zoomster@85
The little that was revealed about McGowan’s fund raising was interesting and suggests to me that the ALP needs to set it’s sights higher in grass-roots fund raising and extend it’s efforts much more broadly in the community.
There is much to be learnt and applied.
I think Clive will attend parliament and enjoy it, i’m just not sure how he will go handling local issues, may need additional office staff
109
I though that election betting was not allowed in SA!
William
[What responsibilities does Palmer actually have, legally speaking, apart from having to show up once a session to avoid having his seat declared vacant? Can’t he just do what he likes? It’s not as if his vote is ever going to matter.]
I’m not talking about legal responsibilities; I’m referring to his constituents who voted for him. They always have issues they will want him to address and I’m sure he will ignore them. They could end up making a lot of noise about him getting $180K or whatever it is from the taxpayer and shirking his job.
And the chance he won’t spit the dummy at some stage is incredibly low.
I think high profile independents or minor party candidates can dislodge mediocre big party incumbents in ‘blue ribbon’ electorates. An example was ted Mack in North Sydney about 20 years ago. He had built up a high profile and good reputation in the area during his stint as Mayor of North Sydney. Such a candidate campaigns on the basis that the locals have a real voice and their vote for once will count. It also helps the campaign if the incumbent is seen as lazy or just a party hack (for whichever party). I think blue ribbon electorates rather than marginals might prove fruitful hunting grounds for independents (especially rural or possibly urban areas with a strong local identity) or possibly Greens (inner city).
Re Miorrabell’s unpopularity
I know from friends in Indi of Mirrabella….with her rude dismissive style and her sharp bitter tongue which went down very badly. there …not to mention the whole saga of her “affaire”with Prof Howard and her getting all his money et al. after his demise…it didn’t go down well in a rural area either
Nice work if you can get it…and she did..though the court case from Howard’s family is still in the pipeline and will be a nice little circus for the Melb media when it comes up in Court soon
Bemused
The biggest lesson out of Indi is for political parties to stop being lazy.
By this political parties put all their focus on the marginals yet put very little into the safe seats.
The level of membership and local visibility is poor.
AFL clubs regardless of how many fans they have need to every year get out and engage supporters and potential supporters.
Tom
That’s why it’s a sportsman’s bet. Just for bragging rights.
Don’t want to get on the wrong side of the Independent Gambling Commission.
Bemused 110
“There is much to be learnt and applied.”
There is indeed, including a failure to correct your serial addiction to the feral apostrophe. Do try harder.
I just don’t think giving the Coalition an annoyance is a good reason for being happy over Palmer’s election. I respect the process that elected him but can’t support the man.
Do MPs legally count as public servants?
Deb
Yes and what made it harder was Sophie wasn’t a local so she needed to work the community harder yet as the Border Mail points out she seems to have dropped the ball on the little things which people particularity in rural seats expect.
The mind-set of many of these communities is unless you or your family have a long history in the area then you are a blow-in and the thing they hate above all else is someone from Melbourne with a degree coming up and telling them how to think.
Sophie appears to have fallen into do that.
Next election will be interesting, many farmers are supporters of the NFF, and McGowen did very well where you would expect the Nats vote to be strongest.
The Greens might still be suffering a bit of blow-back from Black Saturday as one of the areas worst effected is now in Indi.
Rossmore@118
I will personally guarantee you that the absence of feral apostrophes will not win any votes. 😆
But I will continue to try harder as an exercise in self improvement. 😛
davidwh
[I honestly don’t know why people here hold Palmer in such regard when he holds our electoral process in contempt. ]
Are people holding him in high regard? He is a buffoon.
[Which is partly what happened. Labor paid for robocalls in Indi, for example, which spruiked McGowan, and provided Ministerial responses to refute some of Mirabella’s claims.
by zoomster on Sep 21, 2013 at 4:28 pm]
Then the contribution has been well-rewarded, zoomster….just a pity it is McGowan and not you who has been able to benefit.
[Do MPs legally count as public servants?]
No.
Palmer doesn’t like Abbott. Palmer isn’t all bad.
Re Palmer – I think it’s a case for many that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’.
If Clive and his Senators turn out to be a thorn in the side of the abbott tories, that will do me.
Otherwise make a goose of himself in the House from time to time and entertain the press gallery.
Does Clive Palmer need to attend Parliament?
S38 of the Constitution says
[COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA CONSTITUTION ACT – SECT 38
Vacancy by absence
The place of a member shall become vacant if for two consecutive months of any session of the Parliament he, without the permission of the House, fails to attend the House.]
However, there is always the “leave of absence” which is regularly granted for a variety of reasons. So you need the permission of the House.
[Absence without leave
A Member’s place becomes vacant if, without permission of the House, he or she does not attend the House for two consecutive months of any session of the Parliament.121 This constitutional requirement is not met by attendance at a committee of the House, including the Main Committee.122 It could be interpreted that the phrase ‘attend the House’ means attend the House when it is sitting,123 but in order that the position of Members is not placed in doubt it is normal practice at the end of a period of sittings for a Minister to move ‘That leave of absence be given to every Member of the House of Representatives from the determination of this sitting of the House to the date of its next sitting’. This motion is moved to cover the absence of Members from the House between the main periods of sittings each year. The motion is still moved even though it is known that there will be a dissolution of the House pending an election.124
No Member’s place has become vacant because of the Member being absent without leave but, in 1903, the seat of a Queensland Senator (Senator Ferguson) became vacant when he failed to attend the Senate for two consecutive months.125 The Serjeant-at-Arms, who records the attendance of Members in the House, advises the whip of the relevant party when a Member has been absent for about six weeks. The leader of the Member’s party normally either moves for the House to grant the Member leave of absence or arranges for the Leader of the House to do so.
If an absent Member is an independent or has not kept the party whip informed of his or her intentions, then the Serjeant-at-Arms contacts the Member after six weeks’ absence to ensure that the Member is aware of the consequence of an absence from the House without leave for a period of two months.
If a seat became vacant because a Member was absent, the appropriate procedure would appear to be for the Speaker to advise the House of the facts and, depending on the electoral cycle, to inform the House of his or her intention to issue a writ for the election of a Member for the relevant electoral division.]
http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/house_of_representatives/powers_practice_and_procedure/~/link.aspx?_id=5F84A8EF67554138898561AB96CFEDE3&_z=z
triton
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
davidwh
Are people holding him in high regard? He is a buffoon.
—————————————————-
A buffoon maybe ? …. but a loose cannon, dangerous buffoon – who just happens to dislike Tony Rabbott ….
I like Clive ….
[If Clive and his Senators turn out to be a thorn in the side of the abbott tories, that will do me.]
Me too. The more LNP skeletons he can release from their closets, the better.
For those who don’t have much of a life and are impatient and love polling numbers like me…..by my calculations, when the 10 non ALP vs. Coalition TPP seats are added to the ALP vs. Coalition TPP counts it will go….
From Coalition 53.44%
To Coalition 53.55%*
*This is just based on projecting 2010 preference flows (80% Greens and 40% others to ALP) onto current primary vote counts in those 10 seats and does not include the remaining declaration vote trends (can’t be bothered) so it will probably be ever so slightly better for the Coalition than 53.55%
[I think high profile independents or minor party candidates can dislodge mediocre big party incumbents in ‘blue ribbon’ electorates.
An example was ted Mack in North Sydney about 20 years ago.
He had built up a high profile and good reputation in the area during his stint as Mayor of North Sydney. ]
A good man Ted. He made sure he retired just before he qualified for a Parliamentary Pension as well – said he didn’t want to take it.
Other very good independents – Peter Andern as well as Windsor and Okie of course.
Senator Ferguson was also a member of the Queensland Parliament, which explained why he didn’t attend the Senate.
The House wouldn’t give Palmer leave of absence without good reason.
The other thing which might catch ou Clive Palmer is his pecuniary interests return eg
1. Titanic replica (partially built)
2. Several dinosaurs on Coolum golf course
…….
This is just a Standing Order, so if he doesn’t comply, then..
[On 13 February 1986 the House resolved that any Member who:
knowingly fails to provide a statement of registrable interests to the Registrar of Members’ Interests by the due date;
knowingly fails to notify any alteration of those interests to the Registrar of Members’ Interests within 28 days of the change occurring; or
knowingly provides false or misleading information to the Registrar of Members’ Interests—
‘shall be guilty of a serious contempt of the House of Representatives and shall be dealt with by the House accordingly’.]
Seems the claims of secrecy by the immigration minister have spurned him into releasing a statement.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=908120&vId=
briefly
putting aside modesty for a moment (a strange thing for me to do, I admit…) McGowan also benefitted from the fact that I wasn’t able to run as a candidate!! (the particular way this campaign went, with its focus on candidate forums, would have suited me to the ground, but it didn’t suit the skills set of our candidate, who would have done better in a more traditional Indi campaign).
It’s a weird situation – on one hand, I find myself saying ‘we should have done this or this during the campaign’ but on the other, if we had done, Mirabella might still have been there…
ltep@134
I am sure Clive will be able to drop into Parliament once or twice each session to meet the minimum requirement.
I would not be embracing him as a friend, but I sure am looking forward to the entertainment he provides as he embarrasses my enemies.
Palmer walks both sides of the fence.
Don’t expect him to cause Rabbott any grief.
mexican
[The Greens might still be suffering a bit of blow-back from Black Saturday as one of the areas worst effected is now in Indi.]
As the fires were uncontrollable because of strong winds plus 40 deg heat which turned into a firestorm, and were caused by poorly maintained electrical service, it’s a bit unfair to blame “the Greens”. Even the best-prepared properties were undefendable on that day.
PUP’s vote will be based off a protest against the Government so of course they’ll cause the Government trouble where it assists them. It’ll be more interesting if they get a senator in either Tasmania or Western Australia too. They’ll still fall short of official party status though.
lizzie@140
I blame the Greens for everything. 👿
[PUP’s vote will be based off a protest against the Government so of course they’ll cause the Government trouble where it assists them. ]
Yep, just like the Greens with Labor when it suits them to do so.
Final polls (I think) for Coalition TPP%:
55.3% = Morgan (overestimated by 1.7%)
55.0% = Newspoll
54.5% = Morgan multi
54.2% = Nielsen
53.6% Projeted 2013 Result
53.4% = Galaxy (we have a winner! Off by just 0.2%)
53.1% = Reachtel
52.2% = Essential
50.8% = Lonergan (underestimated by 2.8%)
The other thing which might catch ou Clive Palmer is his pecuniary interests return eg
1. Titanic replica (partially built)
2. Several dinosaurs on Coolum golf course
Point 2 should not be a problem as all the dinosaurs are now sitting on the Government’s front bench.
Mod Lib@144
Please remove this before Meguire Bob sees it.
He will have a heart attack! 😀
Actually, I need to clarify that I have taken the primary votes and determined a TPP from 2010 preference flows with that list.
The headline Newspoll and Neilsen were both 54-46% so closer than I have listed, which must have been as their primary rounding was more towards 54% than 55% whereas I went on their headline primary votes not the original (as I only had the headline primaries!)
In other words, the last headline TPP from Newspoll, Neilsen, Galaxy and Reachtel were all within 0.5%.
Morgan multi overestimated the Coalition vote by 0.9%
Essential underestimated the Coalition vote by 1.4%
Hey bemused can I remind you Tony Abbott is Prime Minister…
Joe Hockey took 14 years to declare his spouse’s directorship of a company, why does anyone think Clive will be in any trouble.
Living in Fairfax, I wonder if Clive will be any better or worse than Alex Somlyay?
He can’t be worse, he may be better.
Clive campaigned locally on boosting the tourism industry, it worked.