The AEC reports the count in Fairfax has ended with Clive Palmer 36 votes in front of Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. The scrutiny progress table still lists 107 pre-polls and seven postals as awaiting processing, but I guess these are the ones that have been “disallowed” (the numbers are about right in each case). Admitted to the count today were 304 pre-polls, which broke 178-126 to O’Brien, and 147 postals, which broke 85-62, in each case in line with the general trend of the pre-poll and postal count. That was only sufficient to chip 75 votes away from Palmer’s 111-vote margin from last night.
Assuming that result is not overturned on a recount, I would say this definitively settles the line-up of the new House of Representatives: 90 seats to the Coalition (58 Liberal, 22 Liberal National, nine Nationals and one Country Liberal), 55 to Labor, one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party, and two independents.
[I’m not sure Palmer can stick it out for three years.
I doubt he’ll last 12 months.]
Diogs
On political or health grounds?
ltep
He won’t enjoy the scrutiny or responsibilities. Can’t see it lasting.
Palmer will probably get kicked out for not following the rules.
Zoomster @ 50
A very interesting insight on your part – and admirably objective – considering your known political opposition to Mirabella.
Do you think that McGowan will be able to dig herself in or will be susceptible once the Libs and Nats come up with non Mirabellas at the next election?
Noting all the comments about Indi…I’m sure this cannot be replicated easily, but it is still interesting that voters will put their energy into opposing and replacing machine politicians. It shows that politics really is local. Considering the strength of Liberal hegemony in WA – and how ill-served we are by that – it’s something to think about.
If Rudd had another week left in the campaign he might have promised to move Parliament House up to Brissie to make things more convenient for the Queenslanders…
fess
yes, ‘perfect storm’ is the phrase.
I continually said that Indi was winnable (given Mirabella) but it would require every single domino to fall in the right direction.
McGowan benefitted from Labor’s problems with preselection (both candidates who put their hands up ended up not running, which delayed putting a candidate in place by several months), the determination of most of the candidates to get rid of Mirabella (last election, for example, the Greens didn’t direct preferences), her position on the ballot paper, the fact that PUP directed preferences to her and not Mirabella (up until I realised that, I was tipping Mirabella by a nose)…. and several other factors I could reel off if I wanted to bore the pants off people even more than I am doing…
[Palmer will probably get kicked out for not following the rules.]
Can you get kicked for not following the rules or are we just about to find out?
The only rule he can be kicked out for is not attending the required amount. Attending can be for as little as walking into the chamber and then out.
He could just ignore the register of interests if he wanted. In fact, when the register was first introduced for the Senate I believe many senators refused to comply.
I am sure Clive will stick it out for 3 years, he is serious about his political party and its results have been remarkable in its first election, just a few months after it was created.
He may not attend Parliament every sitting day, he may delegate electoral matters to a minion. But the importance of having Reps and Senate sitting Members will not be lost on him.
What responsibilities does Palmer actually have, legally speaking, apart from having to show up once a session to avoid having his seat declared vacant? Can’t he just do what he likes? It’s not as if his vote is ever going to matter.
I see a few comments on Hoopla mentioning Abbott’s alleged ‘masquerade marriage’ status. This seems to have been an open secret in Canberra for years, yet if it was publicly known and actually true, surely he would have remained unelectable as PM?
PB posters have mentioned it from time to time, but it seems as if a code exists among politicians and the MSM with regard to outing relationships gone awry. This is understandable given the terrible price politicians pay for public life….and given most left-leaning types prefer to avoid smearing (the natural domain of the Coalition) it’s even more understandable, especially given the consequences for the partners.
Nonetheless, PM Gillard copped an absolute, relentless caning over her marriage status and relationships. What I dont understand is why is PM Abbott immune from the same?
He ruthlessly used his wife and daughters in the election campaign and that really sticks in my craw…..
What am I not understanding? Is it mostly about protecting the partners? I guess part of me is interested to know if the rumours are true, but that’s a distant second to the much more interesting question (to my mind) as to why/how it has been so comprehensively suppressed. Psephos?
[If Rudd had another week left in the campaign he might have promised to move Parliament House up to Brissie to make things more convenient for the Queenslanders…]
Interesting to know if his Queenlandocentric position actaully pissed off voters in other states. I do not recall any previous PM making a big deal about where they came from – otoh all previous PMs for a long, long time came from NSW or Victoria.
57
It was not quite a perfect storm. Mirabella was standing as the candidate of the presumed post-election government, who were predicted to win in a landslide. It would have been easier if the tide was going the other way.
When the cry “stop the presses” rings out it’s not because there is a new sensational headline.
It’s because Abbott and Coalition-of-Four are censoring the media
[all previous PMs for a long, long time came from NSW or Victoria]
Bob Hawke?
[What responsibilities does Palmer actually have, legally speaking, apart from having to show up once a session to avoid having his seat declared vacant? Can’t he just do what he likes? It’s not as if his vote is ever going to matter.]
He can do pretty much as he likes – Katter does. He doesn’t have to speak, vote or serve on committees if he doesn’t want to. I don’t think he’s required by law to maintain an EO or hire any staff.
Scott Driscoll uses the rules to attend the night before he is due to be booted. Newman has changed the rules so he has to attend more.
I reckon Clive will love Canberra, his every word will be reported just like he advised Sir Joh, feed the chooks.
[Tom the first and best
….. It would have been easier if the tide was going the other way]
Yes, I have been wondering about the next election- what if it is close, would the conservative voters of Indi return to a non-Mirabella LNP candidate?
She seems like a pretty good candidate so she might increase her support level with 3 years of attention.
Interesting times!
Palmer is saying that the AEC is a “disgrace”.
What’s his beef, exactly?
bbpseph
The next election campaign in Indi will be extremely interesting – a four cornered contest, with McGowan, Nationals, Liberals and Labor.
The local Nats always used to say that they were supporting me (not as blatantly as they supported McGowan) on the basis that – if I won – they would then have a chance of winning the seat at the next election.
So that would immediately knock off some of McGowan’s vote, and the Coalition agreement would mean that those preferences would be redirected to the Liberals, not McGowan.
On the other hand, both the progressive parties here have been badly damaged by McGowan’s victory – both Labor and the Greens lost more votes to her (22%) than the Liberals did (7%). It seems unlikely to me that both those parties will stay at those levels.
McGowan won by a whisker. She won’t be the Golden Girl next time, with other candidates at least giving her grudging support (our preference allocation to her was purely on the ‘most likely to get rid of Mirabella’ grounds, and Labor HO threw a few hand grenades into the campaign on the same principle).
She may have benefit from the sophomore factor (‘what can you expect? she’s just learning.’) but she will certainly face a battle.
A lot will be dependant on McGowan’s performance, of course.
69
3 years of Abbott will not help the Coalition.
I love the UK system of declarations occurring during the night but it raises the question of whether the UK has postal and out of district votes and how they deal with them.
Wonder which Coalition seats will be most vulnerable next time?
In NSW they could be Barton, Robertson, Dobell, Gilmore, Macquarie, maybe Reid. Others like Lindsay, Page and Eden-Monaro are close on figures but will be very hard, depending on who the candidates are.
Queensland has a heap of marginal seats which could swing one way or the other, depending on the mood at the time. Capricornia may not be the easiest.
Victoria offers a two or three prospects if the state government goes really bad, but Tasmania is a depressing place for Labor.
In SA, Hindmarsh’s changing demographics make it difficult for Labor, but Boothby offers some hope.
Surely WA will see the light soon, though on paper there are not a lot of prospects.
Solomon is a real chance in the NT.
Unless something happens in Queensland and WA, a Labor victory may be some way off.
Tom
conversely, I’ve had a few analysts argue the other way – people felt safe voting for McGowan, knowing that they would still get a Liberal government.
There is minus 1 pre-poll vote in Fairfax
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-17496-160.htm
The lawyers are going to have a field day! :devil:
interesting remarks, zoomster….We now have quite a few examples showing how independents can succeed. The occasional winner, like Palmer, just has heaps of money to play with. But others, like O & W, Katter, McGowan, Wilkie, show that non-party based campaigns can be competitive in the right circumstances. This must say something about voter-disaffection and how to draw from it. The electoral system works to aggregate support from diverse sources. Perhaps in seats where Labor is very unlikely to win, there is a case for helping anti-LNP elements to organise and campaign. We might be able to eject Dennis Jensen, for example, who is unpopular even among the LNP.
Regarding using Indi as example/inspiration.
I hope it does get lots of people mobilised. It may not work in one election cycle but it will over time.
That or the major parties will listen to people in safe seats like these vulnerable if ignored.
[lizzie
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 4:14 pm | PERMALINK
Palmer is saying that the AEC is a “disgrace”.
What’s his beef, exactly?]
I would guess wagyu….500 day wagyu
ML
OK, smartypants!
:devil:
Palmer, like Toad from Toad Hall, will start full of enthusiasm and then get bored and move onto some new interest.
73
The UK requires postal vote to be there by the close of polls on election day. No out of constituency voting either. The choice is your local polling place (yes, just the 1 pooling place, not any polling place in the seat, apparently) or postal voting.
Re Confessions @1296 on old thread: The thought of Clive with parliamentary privilege is both scary but exciting at the same time!
I’m glad he got up, even though I wouldn’t have voted for one of his candidates. Indications are he’ll be a real pain in the backside for Tony Abbott.
blackburn
McGowan had a warchest I could only dream of – she spent well over $150k. My 8% swing in 2007 was on a budget of $8000. Mirabella spent closer to $200k.
Independents can only win if they’re well known already or have money behind them. I misunderestimated how much money McGowan would be able to raise, so I didn’t think she’d win.
But, as I’ve said, if any one of about thirty different things had gone the other way (most notably, the draw of the ballot) McGowan wouldn’t have made it.
75
If they new the Coalition were going to loose government, rather than gain it, that would not be a factor and there would be the voters disenchanted with the government to vote against the Coalition.
briefly
[Perhaps in seats where Labor is very unlikely to win, there is a case for helping anti-LNP elements to organise and campaign.]
Which is partly what happened. Labor paid for robocalls in Indi, for example, which spruiked McGowan, and provided Ministerial responses to refute some of Mirabella’s claims.
[The occasional winner, like Palmer, just has heaps of money to play with.]
This misses the point in Fairfax. Ted O’Brien lost because his primary vote tanked by 8%. One reason is he was seen as a blow in looking for a safe seat. He was appalling in candidate debates and assumed being a Nudgee College Captain would get him elected.
for u blackspur
enjoy
your man
Ten days seems very long for postal votes. They need to be postmarked by the time that polls close, so I think that one week would be plenty, especially for votes cast within Australia. Those overseas can send in their votes a few days or a week early to make sure that they’re included.
If Denis Jensen is another Mirabella Labor should start their grass roots campaign in his seat the day the new leader is elected.
Then when high gear is engaged at next election high value social networks and recognition of the Labor candidate will exist.
More expensive than just branch meetings I guess
We are obviously more inclusive than the British and with compulsory voting have to be. We also have much bigger electorates both geographically and in votes cast but for drama there is nothing like the night declarations and candidates speeches.
Eire has declarations within 24 hours despite having a manual count of modified Hare-Clark.
BBC promoting CSIRO 3D scanner on its Click programme
[The next election campaign in Indi will be extremely interesting – a four cornered contest, with McGowan, Nationals, Liberals and Labor.]
Thanks zoomster, I was wondering if Indi would be contested by Libs and Nats in 2016.
confessions
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib:
Yes, Palmer with parliamentary privilege is both scary and exciting at the same time!
———————————————————
As Clive’s biographer has said : “Its ALL about CLIVE”
I am sure he will be on TV/Radio/News Media EVERY DAY and NIGHT giving HIS views on whats happening and picking apart his target, to whom he refers as, *Tony Rabbitt*
Bring it on, Clive 🙂
Previous thread
Bugler 1260
I was only making an observation and am fully aware that Shorten’s seat and Albo’s seat are very different.
I thought the two weeks was to allow postals from around the world or across the country to arrive.
confessions
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib:
Yes, Palmer with parliamentary privilege is both scary and exciting at the same time!
——————————————————–
As his biographer has stated : “Its ALL about CLIVE”
I am sure he will be on TV/Radio/News media giving HIS views on whats happening and picking apart his favourite target, to whom he calls, *Tony Rabbitt*
Bring it on, Clive
http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/on-deaf-ears/
===============================================================
WILLIAM WILL YOU PLEASE DELETE MY POST ON THE DEAF AND
THIS IS THE LINK
THIS IS THE STORY
AS THIS HOW IT SHOULD OF BEEN PRESENTED I THINK
WHEN I RE READ
SO COULD YOU DELETE THAT
this is the story it has the
link in the this link about the deaf
Zoomster i am pleased you wrote that about poor internet access
That ABC story was interesting but the way it ran it was as thou there was a great internet run campaign which might sound like a plausible reason in a suburban seat but as you wrote Indi is very spread out, not only with some areas having limited internet access but in some cases poor radio transmissions particularly in valleys.
I think Indi reacted to a high level visible campaign against an MP that was not well regarded.
This in some ways is similar to what occurred in the 1999 Victoria State Election when seats rejected high profile local MP’s that were seen as poor local performers.