Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. It would be interesting to hear Marrickville Mauler’s perspective on Albo. My Rightist family have great respect for the way in which Albo works his electorate. Much like Chrsitopher Pyne does in Sturt. Both run very tight local operations, with an extraordinary depth of knowledge about local matters. My Rightist family have a general view of the Left being lazy and high handed, with a far weaker capacity to campaign effectively in the heat and dust of an election campaign than the Right can muster in its seats. Fair or not, that’s a perception. But it could help explain why other staunch members of the Right are prepared to put factional loyalties to one side in this leadership election.

  2. yes

    and PJK

    won the 93 election when the poll had him 7 points behind on the day

    Hawke had the same adulation from the people also

    combet would of been my choice but that not possible

    so give us your reasons for shorten MB

    he looks down not much eye contact

    abbott needs that eye contact

    that’s of course if he may decide no more question time

    and he will cut it short if not get rid of it

    everything i wrote about him and the church was laughed

    the chief scientists was at the nPc before the election

    promoting stem cell research

    the catholic church does not believe in stem cell

    i am only throwing that in to the mix it could be the global warming issues with

    him but seems he wants a dumb country

    i find that very scary.
    what next burning books.
    \
    and read the local press here nothing
    about the cut in wages to nursing home staff and apparently nothing about the science

    so the murdocktary is here to

  4. OUTSIDER

    KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK , are you lobbying memebers aust wide

    please the union s down here have shorten all over face book

    and they seem to have a lot of power re members here

    just an observation,

    IF U can get feed back re members in tas would love to know

  5. OH pointed this out just recently

    with shorten on tv just the other day

    he said ‘u know am not that impressed with that bloke’

    never been wrong,,he

    said the same about kev the first week 2007

  6. Thinking about Albo and Shorten, I think the views of those who know them each well – former ministers – are significant. Combet, Plibersek, Emerson and (I think) Smith all rate very highly with me. They have been in a good position to assess the candidates and all favour Albo.

    As well, Albo is a very good performer in Parliament. He thinks on his feet, has an excellent grasp of tactics and the mood of the chamber, and has an unmatched ability to get under the skin of the Libs. He also has more energy in his little finger than the whole LNP cabinet.

    I think he will stand his ground and fight hard. He’s been doing it all his life.

  10. Asimus ‏@lindyasimus 7m
    haha RT @croquetcrazy: The Cat in the Hat just nailed our new PM to a T. #auspol#ausvotes pic.twitter.com/vAGBIHGdOV

    Retweeted by grace pettigrew
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    HOPE THE PHOTO LINK WORKS

  11. meher baba

    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    ), I don’t think that Abbott particularly wants to reduce the size or scope of the public sector. But he wants to change the way it operates: he would say he would like to make it less bureaucratic and more responsive to people’s needs
    ————————————————-

    Just my view but I think sacking 12,000 has an effect on the effectiveness of the public service.

    Plenty of individuals and businesses are complaining about the delays when dealing with a Govt dept.

    There is a mix of issues, one being the bureaucracy and also the lack of staff.

    One day when the mood takes me I will relate my experience as a Senior Manager in the WA state PS and how Govt have allowed interest groups/stakeholders to effectively paralyse the decision making and make managers so accountable to these outside groups many fear making a decision. Because you can guarantee at least one on those many outside interest groups will have an issue with the decision and you will spend days writing reports to justify it

  12. [Is Abbott going to wait until after he is sworn in today to express his disgust at the tainted vote of Geoff Shaw?]

    Will he even be asked about it?

  13. NO ONE SHOULD HAVE TOLEARN ON THE JPOB

    u need to have the the credentials to start with

    fail ,, how can that be

    they really know how to brain wash don’t they

    what with the abc employees whats going on

  15. The Lib government in Vic is not popular, and many people believe that Napthine is just an empty suit, as was Ballieu before him.

    There is a good deal of anger about the East-West link, and not just in the inner-north where some homes, businesses and public parkland are set to be compulsorily acquired.

    But the most galling fact is the desire to keep the business case secret, when there’s a lot of chatter within the finance industry that it’s not going to be capable of generating a decent return. In that case, the taxpayer would likely be saddled with subsidising a minimum return to whoever signs up to run the tollway.

    This is going on when public transport is crying out for funding – the Melbourne Metro is effectively ‘shovel-ready’ and one of Infrastucture Australia’s highest rated projects. We need to get this done first to allow the Airport Link and Doncaster Rail etc to be built down the track.

  17. fess

    Parliament under Bronnie rule is going to be a strange beast. IMO her decision to continue to attend in the party room means she has nailed her colours to a Speakership which makes no attempt to be (or seem to be) impartial.

    Perhaps Albo is the right leader for the times. But who will be Leader of Oppo Business, I wonder?

  22. Geez, I have been hearing in here how Thomson is completely innocent, even through we have had the Fair Work Commission and the Union telling us what he had done. Which is much much worse that anything Shaw has even been accused of

    Hypocracy anyone?

  24. Confessions

    I heard Bathtime Brony on this yesterday.

    Why her opinion on this is of any importance at all is beyond me.

    The media here missed the import of the speech and ex-PMJG is assured a place in history.

    In 3 years people will ask Bronwyn who?

  27. victoria

    I am sure Labor can manage the contempt part without the odius part.

    Its needed to give Abbott what he gave Gillard for three years.

    Especially as the LNP speaker is not being seen to respect the office by being seen to be impartial.

  28. If Albo is leader, who will be his deputy?

    This is important. Shorten-Plibersek is a well-balanced team, Victoria/NSW, Right/Left.

    I probably prefer Albo himself but see merit in the Shorten team.

  29. I think the Federal opposition should illustrate Abbott.

    Go hard and vicious for a week, make outrageous claims in Parliament – behave as badly as Abbott and Pyne. Then in the second week ask policy driven questions and behave perfectly then make the point that the dysfunction was all Abbott and that labor will be better than Abbott.

    Essentially ignore question time after this it doesn’t matter.

  30. I’d like to put it on record that I refuse to watch the swearing-in of the Abbott mob.

    There. Doesn’t make a blind bit of diff, but I feel better for the declaration.

  32. I have heard public servants in Canberra working 12-14 hour days, then going in on the weekend to catch up. Some departments are just going to break if they lose staff.

  34. The problem with Labor deploying a Pyne type is that the new HoR will just change the Standing Orders to something resembling what they were before the independents insisted on changes.

  35. Toff

    Forget right and left. Think merit and geography.

    Thinking Right and Left will mean more division as contradictory as that sounds. Reason its still factional thinking.

    If Plibersek is best for Deputy then she should be deputy

  37. victoria

    Burke would be excellent. Great tactical thinker, can negotiate well and communicates to voters well. Also in parliament excellent as he has weathered the NSW Bearpit

  38. Well I suppose with Brony in the Big Chair totally ensures the parliament (lower house anyway) will continue to be a circus.

    Labor should not worry a whit about the goings on in the Reps.

    The conservatives had their role in trashing the place last time around and Labor can suit themselves. Labor can scream the house down or turn their backs as far as it goes.

    Labor will not win the next election inside parliament as the last sitting shows. Every bit of conservative legislation will pass as they have the numbers.

    Nobody, other than political wonks and bored media, give a stuff about what happens there other than to tut-tut the so-called “behaviour” in the place.

    All the politicians do is tell us that, for the most part, people “get on” there but that Question Time is “Theatre”

    Well, so be it.

    It is the Senate, though more restrained, where the conservatives will have a hard time.

  43. Outsider & mysay – thank you.

    On Wangaratta council — I recorded here very soon after they were elected that Mirabella had backed most of the new councillors (the only one she didn’t is, ironically, one of her ex staffers….).

    The rumour at the time was that the plan was to sack the CEO and replace him with Mirabella’s husband (who has zero experience in local government, but what the hey…)

    Well, Stage One was achieved, but the wheels fell off during the process.

    Of course, Powell delayed the council sacking until after the election result. I wonder what would have happened if Mirabella had won?

    (And has Wangaratta achieved some kind of record here? The new council was only elected in November last year….)

  45. “@latikambourke: Sophie Mirabella says responsibility for defeat in Indi lies with her alone and she will not seek a recount. Congratulates McGowan.”

  46. [So the boats stop tomorrow and

    My power bill goes down 10% from tomorrow.

    No excuses no surprises
    ]

    Abbott is a liar and a coward – no doubt day 1 will be delayed until P sits while he goes on a bike ride.

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