Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. [Again that is my view on the adoration aspect.]

    That’s exactly what it is. Personality politics is what it’s all about these days, not whether someone has actual leadership skills.

  2. All the spin by the conservatives to “explain” away the appearance of a token woman in Abbott’s cabinet hit a brick wall in this morning’s West from Liberal Party mouthpiece and serial Labor basher, Paul Murray.

    Headline: “Tony Abbott lacked the guts to fix the gender imbalance.”

    Now, before our motley conservatives who come here (usually not around this time) attempt to write this off as “just one opinion” this comes from a man who has attacked Labor at every tiff and turn for as long as I can remember. He is absolutely a media enemy for Labor.

    In his article he totally refutes every excuse Abbott and his pack of dills have come up with – which have been faithfully replicated by various hacks here.

    In one fell swoop, all that family puffery with daughters and wife, so carefully stage-managed by the conservative media and the Liberal bunker, destroyed in one deliberate act by Abbott himself.

    Some say this will all be forgotten in a few weeks, but Murray doesn’t seem to think so putting this down as Big Stupid Mistake 1.

  3. Talking about parties that have learnt nothing

    [Labor’s left is concerned that the right wing faction is attempting to force its members to vote for the right’s leadership candidate Bill Shorten, a practice they say has not been used since the Hawke/Keating showdowns of the 1990s.

    The left claims the “lock”, imposed at meetings of the right last week, means right wing MPs who wanted to vote for left candidate Anthony Albanese in the caucus ballot on 10 October now aren’t able to do so.]

  4. Oh? Because my perception is that Albo lacked guts during the various leadership battles, waiting until the last minute before showing his hand, and only doing so when he knew it wouldn’t make any difference to the result.

    Classic was Rudd’s failed challenge, when everyone knew he was in the room with Rudd doing the numbers but he maintained he was just there to observe.

    I don’t agree with all Shorten did (hence the fence sitting – if he’d stuck with Julia it would be a no brainer for me) but I don’t see anything particularly admirable in Albo’s actions either.

  5. vic,

    That’s my point. It should have been.

    Jobs, sorting a major transport bottleneck and less through traffic on inner suburban streets is normally the sort of issue that would be popular.

    The Libs have cocked it up, big time.

  6. Tricot

    The make up of the Abbott ministry will be staring us in the face for quite some time. There will be constant reminders that there is only one woman in the ministry, who happens to be at the forefront of the diplomatic nightmare they have created for themselves with Indonesia.

  7. And on the Jonathan Holmes article. He lists Antony Green and the AEC as treasures of our democracy. I’m not sucking up to William here, but I think he should be added to the list. His sometimes acerbic, but always accurate, impartial and thoughtful views expressed through this blog and Crikey, add enormously to the weight of political discourse in this country. Non political analysts such as William are an important counterbalance to the shallow and partisan analysis of the MSM. Hats off to you William.

    Now if you could only keep some of those trolls away from this blog…..

  8. Zoomster. I don’t think loyalty issues during the Rudd v Gillard wars are preying much on the minds of the rank and file. It’s the ticker thing. Who will fight hardest. My prediction is that Albo will comfortably win the rank and file ballot.

  9. Diog

    And that’s an old meme, too – we had it with the Rudd challenges, too, even when there was no evidence to support that it was actually happening.

  10. Indeed, what the rank and file want is an end to those wars. Shorten’s role was much more overt than Albo’s. sure, Albo played his hand very cleverly. Much more so than Shorten. It only adds to Albo’s support.

  11. Outsider @ 59: I fully agree with you, and your compliments to William are absolutely in order.

    I fear, however, that Mr Palmer’s behaviour shows that we may be coming into a time when the treasures of our democracy will need to stick together. Fevered talk of “ballot stuffing”, and of “military” influence on elections shouldn’t just be laughed off: it’s dangerous and destructive, and the sensible people should take a stand now. This is the sort of behaviour that Senator McCarthy made his trademark in the 1950s: some Republicans were prepared to slipstream along behind him for a time, and suddenly found he had become awfully powerful.

  12. [Indeed, what the rank and file want is an end to those wars.]

    “Those wars” are unlikely to end in my view until Rudd has left Parliament.

  13. The Libs are having a great internal battle over there being only one woman on the front bench. The faceless men have been told.

    LIBERAL Party elders have been told to come forward to help fix the gender imbalance in the party as Julie Bishop was described as a “token woman” in Tony Abbott’s new Cabinet.

    Read more:

  14. Outsider

    I’m not talking about loyalty, I’m talking about guts, and using his prevarication during the various leadership battles as an example of why I don’t think Albo actually has them!

    But I’m being unreasonably harsh with Albo (mainly because I don’t understand the adulation).

    Both he and Shorten are capable of leading the party and leading it well.

    I just never have liked blind adoration. It makes for bad leadership choices.

    Far better to understand that all leadership contenders are human beings, that they have faults. Once you’ve accepted that, you’ve got a much better handle on what they will actually deliver.

    Using sentiment to colour your views of someone inevitably leads to an exaggerated sense of disappointment when they turn out to be humand beings after all.

  15. denesedenese
    Tweet text

    Reply to @justinbarbour @vanbadham @GhostWhoVotes

    Image will appear as a link

    Susan Peterson ‏@SElizaP 25m
    Remember when Whitlam govt gave us Medibank? Fraser repealed it. Then Labor had to create Medicare. Carbon Price is like that #auspol


    I can see medi care going again I just feel it

  16. z,

    Yes, Albo’s on-going role in the undermining of Gillard has not as yet, been properly documented. I await the candidate to give a full explanation.

    As for Shorten, at least he changed sides at the end for reasons people can understand. He thought he might lose his seat!

    Albo probably needs the publicity to keep his campaign alive. It’s a sign to me that Shorten has the numbers atm.

  17. Albo is a hard hard nut. He is far better placed than Shorten to keep Rudd in check. Rudd will be sidelined, as one of those loonie uncles, sitting on the backbench for 3 years, who needs to be tolerated but ignored.

  18. generation grow up and think everything has always been there like medi care when you let them know different they look at you with dis belief.

    science is much more than stem cell and carbon ,, it trains dr. and all those that have to pass science to be in the health profession and research

    Robert Menzies understood this and built the research centres around the country called the Menzies research centres

    they employ thousand in Hobart we would have many hundreds working our very bit complex that is attached to the uni

    Rheumatoid artrthis is one area they a lot of research in and many other areas
    this save lives, and less people get sick

    so what this all about re abbott and now he has sacked the

    chief scientist by email abbott is turning our worse than I thought

    my our god help us his want

  19. Zoomster. I agree with your thoughts 100%. The current Albo adulation is an instinctive response to the pain of defeat. It’s not analytical. Just a sense of who will attack Abbott hardest. Who can exact some sort of revenge for all that has happened. Whether that proves to be the right choice, only time will tell.

  20. I think we could see us turning in to a third world country

    the aaa rating going

    the liberal voters here must live in Lalla land or
    bad things to happen

    it will catch up with you

    eventually I am taking our money out of the bank

  21. Without taking sides in the ALP leadership argument, which is none of my business, people should be thinking not just about who will be able to fight hardest for the next three years, but also who will come across plausibly as a potential PM.

  22. Zoomster. In my book you are a true Labor hero. Taking up a thankless fight against Sophie for all those years. Enduring the election night pain. But always fighting. It’s an inspiration. Your work has saved us from Minister Mirabella. Whether she acknowledges it or not, Cathy McGowan owes you a huge debt. Thank you so much. Meant from the heart!

  23. mm I see shorten as a show pony a lot thought beaconfied was
    very good a lot said

    no he want a seat in parliament and then of course he did

    I see albo across the desk at abbott staring him down

    as for the election campaign

    this fact
    my member did a 15 minute news cof for the state

    policies her staff told me she got 1 min on tv and not the bits
    she wanted

    so was this happening every

    re albo and the election, where was shorten

    and he so grumpy looks angry most of the time

    albo has humour abbott hates that

    and why are nt you all here screaming about the
    the chief scientist being sacked

    there should be marches in the streets and protests
    silent ones of course

    this must not be allowed to happen

    outsider remind the young ones sometimes elections just don’t happen that how worried I am

    and mr bowe know my thoughts I feel as
    a person educated that he is he must start speaking out

    its his area where democracy can be looked after

    I am hoping he gets more strick on lying trolls

    now for example Robb is saying he is going around the world to start free trade

    excuse me they negatively talked about any free trade

    they with help of that out let are re writing history

    that’s why I m not for newlts polls being advertised

  24. On business programme John Brogden having to defend Super from suggestions government raid it for revenue.

    Only caught half of report so do not know what was suggested.
    Brogden was saying Super not a cash cow.

  25. I second that motion re zoomster

    and the hours spent here as you waited for surgery did not’

    go unnoticed. thank you
    why is it labor people are passionate about caring for people

    is it our background the way we where reared, ?

    my background is from the first fleet they came for better life, there is also couple of convicts who came not of their free will but ended up with a better life

    so is the dna spread through the generations, just don’t understand

    why the liberals stand for only money and material values

    if they do, so must their voters

    is the gov, we need to have to make people understand what they have, or had and will most likely lose for ever

    the only good that may come out of abbott is that the liberal

    party is NO more, so focus on that and don’t talk about the past and those that do must be ignored

    i am late starter re member ship if i could would vote for albo
    witty charming, smart and is focused on fighting the tories

    isee see shorten as a career politician i may be wrong.

  26. Medicare will no doubt see a change under Abbott.

    Medibank will be sold off and then like Howard, Abbott will point to debt reduction due to economic management and not mention the asset sale.

    It really scared me when I heard Howard praising the American health service model and gladdened that he was unable to progress this brain fart.

    Abbott is no different. Access to good health provision is for the rich and the poor should go back to using ‘witch doctors’

  27. Again, I am seeing a lot of overestimating of Albo going on here today (not that I’m a fan of Shorten, I hasten to add: he’s only marginally the better choice IMO).

    First of all, the idea of Albo “fighting Abbott tooth and nail” like Abbott did to Labor is utter nonsense. Abbott’s strategy from 2010 worked so well because it was grounded in Labor having firstly removed a popular PM, then Gillard was severely damaged by leaks, then Labor formed a minority government and then Rudd and his supporters began their incessant whiteanting.

    Abbott has just won a substantial majority, with a right-leaning majority in the Senate to boot. He leads a largely united team (the odd Judith Troeth and Dennis Jensen on the backbench notwithstanding). Maybe his standing will begin to deteriorate after a while, but it’s a really bad idea to start attacking him from day one.

    Especially in Parliament in the Albo sort of style. We will be treated with nightly news images of Albo yelling and waving his arms around and making sarcastic comments while Abbott sits there looking calm and controlled. The average PB poster will feel a warm inner glow at this sight, but the average uncommitted viewer will interpret it as evidence of Labor becoming apoplectic because they can’t accept the people’s verdict. Albo – who looks and sounds like a shop steward – will also look very “same old, same old”. People definitely like him, but he looks a bit like one of yesterday’s men.

    Also, everything I have ever heard Albo talk about publicly with any enthusiasm comes from the same old outmoded Labor Left playbook that Gillard (even though she was denounced by the Left) used to read from: manufacturing, huge public investments in schools, hospitals, housing and infrastructure, etc, etc. Not much about the environment, innovation or the interests of aspirational voters. And nothing of the interesting “liberal individualism” agenda that Chris Bowen has been pushing.

    It’s not very inspiring and it won’t do well in 2016 unless the Abbott Government can achieve Whitlam-like levels of incompetence and internal chaos (or perhaps even higher, given that Abbott – unlike Whitlam – will presumably still have the Murdoch media on his side).

    I’ve finally had a chance to look at Bowen’s book and it was a fair bit better than I was expecting: not a million miles away from the sort of stuff Mark Latham has been saying for a while. Maybe I have underestimated Bowen – I was put off by his disloyalty to Gillard and also by his low charisma level – but I’m starting to think he might be a better choice than either Shorten or Albo. It’s going to be rather problematic if he performs well over the next few weeks and then his successor makes a meal of it.

  28. Meher baba. I respect your views. My comments were about the perception that has built amongst rank and file members which underpin Albo’s support.

  29. gg
    u surprise me u are backing shorten


    i see him as trying to tread both sides over that time to keep
    the place together
    and a much better performer in parliament think about all the times abbott had one of his tantrums to call the gov on whatever he pleased

    it was mostly albo who went after him

    i found shorten talks in parliament rather mundane

    my sadness is greg combet wish we knew why he left but he is on the side of albo to that’s a big plus for him i hope

    i was NOT impressed with shorten over Julia

  30. Outsider@94: I wasn’t having a go at you, I appreciate that you were talking about your family’s views and not necessarily yours.

    But I note that a number of other posters on here are enamoured about the idea of “Albo taking the fight up to the Tories”. You know, the sort of behaviour through which PJK won so many hearts and minds between 1993 and 1996.

  31. The deluded world of a National MP.

    First, this article about the imminent sacking of 1100 – 1200 Centrelink Call Centre workers, which will have quite an effect on regional centrea across Australia including Coffs Harbour in Luke Harsuyker’s electorate of Cowper.

    Then Hartsuyker’s meaningless gibbering about his plans to lure another government office to Coffs to add to the exisiting, soon to be slashed, Centrelink Call Centre. As is usual with Pruneface, he is totally oblivious to what is happening around him. As usual with Nationals it is promise the world, deliver nothing.

    Coffs Harbour, along with other towns, will soon be trying to cope with a few hundred unemployed people, the resultant loss of income to the local economy and all the other flow-on problems. And those call centres, with their newly depleted staffing levels, will be struggling to cope with the increased demand on their services from all hose who will be looking for help after Abbott and Co finish their sacking and slashing.

  32. AA@92: have a look at what Abbott did and said as Health Minister. I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in hell that Abbott will dismantle Medicare.

    What he has consistently said he would like to do is to dismantle the State hospital systems and have all public hospitals/regional networks run as NGOs with independent boards appointed by the Federal Government (possibly jointly with the States, although he never said as much about that).

    More recently, he has been talking the same way about the schools.

    Unlike Howard (in his early years as PM, before he unexpectedly turned into the biggest of “Big Government” men), I don’t think that Abbott particularly wants to reduce the size or scope of the public sector. But he wants to change the way it operates: he would say he would like to make it less bureaucratic and more responsive to people’s needs.

    Anyway, we’ll soon find out I reckon.

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