Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  7. Napthine must be angry at Shaw as the police charges couldn’t come at a worse time for the Govt

    Shaw will hang tough and hope that the case drags on and will continue to sit in the House,.,,the Govt depends on it

    I belive that it’s position will worsen
    Labor is in a good position for the next election

  8. [5
    Asha Leu
    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 12:48 am | PERMALINK
    Wall-to-wall Liberal government isn’t going to work too well in Tony’s favor, methinks.]

    Well, we were told on PB for years that wall to wall liberal governments would stop people electing Abbott…. And cando was he labor saving grace.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    A nice Liberal Woman of Calibre. Nice work, Pru.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/revealed-staff-down-by-25-20130917-2txd6.html
    And it’s not confined to women.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mp-they-call-loaded-dog-of-spring-st-20130917-2txdb.html
    This is a worrying sign of things to come.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tough-call-on-1200-jobs-at-centrelink-20130917-2txdc.html
    Jonathan Holmes justifiably springs to the defence of our AEC.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/public-service-heads-may-yet-get-to-keep-them-20130917-2tx0o.html
    David Suzuki warming up fpr his QandA appearance. I’m sure our new PM would be keen to get on it soon to refute what Suzuki will say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-will-doom-future-generations-if-he-ditches-carbon-tax-20130917-2tx0j.html
    Hold on to your hats ladies and gentlemen. The Abbott/Credlin/Pell/Murdoch/Joyce/Reinhart express is about tho leave the station.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-promises-a-day-of-action-straight-after-he-is-sworn-in-20130917-2txam.html
    Jaqueline Maley serves it up to Abbott about women.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/we-thought-you-knew-women-tony-but-then-you-do-this-20130917-2twg8.html
    Time Colebagch outlines the troubles ahead for Hockey – all in areas where the Coalition has been weak.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/coalition-strategy-needs-a-spark-of-inspiration-20130916-2tuz5.html
    Ross Gittins gets it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/libs-dream-of-returning-us-to-a-menzian-torpor-20130917-2tx0i.html
    Today is the day the boats stop. Let’s start counting. Oops! Somebody’s turned out the lights!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-vows-swift-more-forthright-action-on-border-security-from-day-one-20130916-2tuvm.html

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Bitter factional brawls within the Libs? Surely not.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fingerpointing-as-libs-weigh-how-the-west-was-lost-20130913-2tq8q.html
    David Rowe with Abbott (complete with now augmented attire) riding the gender pendulum.
    cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Alan Moir has certainly installed popeye as PM. He gives him another serve on the “ouutstanding Liberal women”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope on the same subject.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    And Ron Tandberg really puts the boot in to the triumphally sexist Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  13. And from the Land of the Free –

    More upchuck links on where religikon meets rights.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/17/upchucks-upon-upchucks-place-religion-meets-rights/
    Some cartoons on the Navy yard shootings.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/17/cartoons-day-navy-yard/
    A trauma surgeon who dealt with yesterday’s shooting victims goes right off on the US gun culture.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/16/video-d-c-trauma-surgeon-janis-orlowski-goes-gun-violence-something-evil-society/
    And Texas is a prime example.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/16/trayvon-situation-dallas-tx/
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/09/17/1239488/-After-mass-shooting-Rick-Perry-to-tour-nearby-gun-manufacturer
    Piers Morgan goes right off on gun freaks.
    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/piers-morgan-unloads-on-pro-gun-panel-in-epic-shouting-match-over-navy-yard-shooting/
    FoxNews uses every opportunity to be one-eyed.
    http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/fox-news-tries-create-backlash-against-
    Jon Stewart gives the warmongering right a serve.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/stewart-slams-right-syria-why-cant-you-tak

  14. Cannot WAIT until the Victirian people get the chance to turf this useless Tory detritus out. This Geoff Shaw stuff is just fantastic, wonder how many of the Vic Libs were cheering Abbott’s “tainted vote” line?

  15. Australia is the world’s second-largest exporter of coal, thanks to huge markets in China, Japan, and other Asian countries.

    Libs complained that putting a market price on carbon would simply export our emissions overseas.

    Well, duh!

  16. Morning all. Victoria does indeed look interesting for Labor now. The Shaw case will not get any less embarrassing once it is in court. Nor is the Victorian economy getting any better soon.

    A vote of no confidence will at least force Napthine to decide whether to use Shaw’s tainted vote or not. He loses either way.

  21. Shellbell

    Dennis Napthine is currently the Premier because Ballieu was forced out. One of the reasons was Geoff Shaw basically blackmailing the Liberal party. He moved to the cross benches due to the impending charges, but he released a statement at the time blaming the leadership of Ballieu. He then suggested that he would withhold supply to the Libs if Ballieu did not resign.
    Seriously the Napthine govt stinks

  22. Lizzie

    I am sure Shaw is genuine in his desire to cling to his taxpayer finded seat in parliament. It is what god would want him to do, no doubt. He hasn’t said he didn’t do it.

    As for the coal exports, anyone who runs that line should be reminded that Australia was the world’s second biggest coal exporter before the carbon tax, and after. It made no difference. The high dollar is what has hurt Aussie manufacturing, plus lack of investment by manufacturers and by govt in infrastructure.

  23. Victoria

    There should be a requirement that when a member is charged with a crime punishable by a gaol sentence there is an automatic by- election

  24. Shellbell

    Geoff Shaw is an unsavoury character.

    For eg.

    [IMAGES revealing besieged MP Geoff Shaw making obscene hand gestures is at the heart of the latest fiasco embroiling the Baillieu Government.

    The footage – finally released to the public late today after a day of farce at State Parliament – contradicts statements issued from the Premier’s office attributed to Mr Shaw yesterday.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/premier-ted-baillieu-stands-solid-in-support-of-embattled-mp-geoff-shaw/story-e6frf7kx-1226502172132

  26. confessions
    [psyclaw
    Chubb was very calm and measured and probly being very diplomatic in his comments.
    He may have even been strategically and very obliquely sarcastic about Abbott being the one to promote science.]

    We were very disappointed in Chubb. So diplomatic and measured that he hardly said anything critical. Spoke like a bureaucrat who wanted to hold on to his job.

    We’ve heard from many people that the scientists’ emphasis on probabilities and likelihoods is legitimate from their pov, and it is, but a pollie listening thinks “no strong view, then”.

  27. Good Morning.

    Well this is the day that officially the rubber hits the road.

    The fight of the light against the dark. Only way I can put it when things like science are put in the dark.

    The LNP are determined that Australia will be a colony dependent on others as they continue the lets be a quarry mentality.

    Its no wonder they want to end car subsidies. The quicker to end manufacturing.

    The first battle amazingly is going to be the carbon price repeal. Abbott is going for the first rejection quickly as he has vowed that yes the legislation will be there day one of parliament.

  28. I am waiting to hear the two candidates’ policies for (among others) environment, climate change and the aged. Not just lip service to past policies, but what their ideas are for the future.

  31. I hope Labor and Green and other progressive strategists have looked at the US experience.

    Progressives there have learnt how to fight when the regressives are in power. They know how to communicate the science importance to the public.

    Along with the science of neglect of things like infrastructure and workers rights.

  32. [Craig Emerson

    Happy to support you @AlboMP I see your Sydney launch went well with Brother Combet. I’ve described you as a Labor hero many times here.]

  33. The 4% decline in the Lib vote since the last election is the real bad news for the Libs. Also, the recent re-distribution was Labor friendly.

    Looks like Andrews and the Labor team are doing the Libs slowly.

  35. BK @ 10: Re Jonathan Holmes defending our AEC. Mr Palmer has been saying some pretty outrageous things on this lately. At one level one can just dismiss him a rich windbag, probably being wound up by amateur scrutineers who don’t really understand what they are seeing. But at a deeper level, he’s dangerous. Legitimate follow up when something goes wrong at an election is one thing, and there exist two excellent avenues for that: the Court of Disputed Returns, and the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. Firing off sensational and ignorant sprays is another thing entirely.

    Mr Palmer would have us think that the AEC is running a third world operation, but in fact, it’s his own behaviour – that of a bad loser trying to blame the electoral authority – which one typically finds in third world elections.

    So much of the relative civility which surrounds our election processes, as distinct from the campaign, comes from public trust in the AEC as an independent and honest institution. Politicians who undermine that do damage to our democracy, and ought to be held accountable if they can’t back up their claims. If Mr Palmer had said about a court some of the things he has said about the AEC, he’d be up on a contempt charge. The AEC can’t fight back itself; it’s good to see some sensible people, like Senator Birmingham, publicly sticking up for it.

    If Mr Palmer continues to behave in this way, the ALP should make it clear that they won’t direct preferences to him. He may not be a racist, but in his willingness to make damaging allegations which are most unlikely to have substance, he has more than a little in common with Ms Hanson.

  36. I’m actually torn between Albo and Shorten – and they’ll both do a good job – but I’m a bit gobsmacked by all the Albo adoration that’s going on.

    Did he do something particularly impressive during the election campaign that I missed?

  41. vic,

    The Libs might go for another leadership change in the new year to refresh and renew. They’ve been pretty much a do nothing Government.

    The eastern Freeway tunnel should have been a boost to the Libs. However, they seem to have handled the politics abysmally.

    I’d like to see Labor pushing a positive, well targetted infrastructure policy agenda. Public Transport was what caused them to lose the last election. So, that is an obvious priority for the next campaign.

  42. Shellbell at 23:

    [There should be a requirement that when a member is charged with a crime punishable by a gaol sentence there is an automatic by- election]

    What an extraordinary suggestion. You might like to take it up with Putin, he seems to go in for that kind of “rule of law”.

  43. zoomster

    I think its the whole acting with honour thing. During the whole leadership debacle Mr Albanese was loyal.

    So he gets support from Gillard supporters and Rudd supporters.

    The adoration is not just he is a good Labor person through and through, but that he is seen as a real uniting leader for the future.

    Shorten is seen through the prism of being the backstabber of two PM’s and thus is seen as a leader for continued disunity.

    Again that is my view on the adoration aspect.

  44. ‘Did he do something particularly impressive during the election campaign that I missed?’

    Nah, he’s just, well…real.
    Makes a change.

  45. GG

    I am not sure that the East West Tunnel is popular within the electorate.

    Agree that Labor should focus its attention on public transport. Perhaps a rail line from the City to Tullamarine

  46. In Victoria, the interesting thing to watch will be the National seats.

    Bracks won in ’99 because the cuts the Liberals made were disproportionately felt in country seats and the Nationals were punished for going along with them.

    It’s much the same this time around, with closure of Department of Primary Industry sites, failure to tackle the wild dog problem (technically they’ve increased the staff numbers, but in fact the numbers on the ground have declined, as positions are left unfiled) and no improvement to rail services etc.

    Of course, the local Nats and Libs have rolled over and played dead on these issues.

    A minor issue brought to my attention during the campaign was bus shelters. Apparently, to get a new bus shelter for school kids used to take one phone call from the local council.

    However, earlier this year the Napthine government moved responsibility for bus shelters to a new Department. However, the new Department wasn’t created until the new financial year, which meant it had no budget in the meantime.

    The new Department is now up and running but took until the middle of August to work out the process for applying for bus shelters.

    Which means that communities who applied for bus shelters at the start of the school year have to reapply using the new criteria – which is far more onerous than a phone call to local council followed by a phone call from the local council to the relevant department…

    Parents don’t take very kindly to their kids having to stand out in the rains all winter…

  47. Zoomster. I think the groundswell of support for Albo is nothing more than that most ALP rank and file members I have met see the mongrel in him. The burning desire to fight Abbott, hard and relentlessly, 24/7, for the next Parliamentary term. In other words, the man who can deliver payback for all that Abbott did in opposition for the past 4 years. Based on a small sample (my daughter and her right faction friends from NSW), all support Albo for that very reason. It’s interesting, because these young members are all staunch factional warriors for the right. But they want a leader who will fight Abbott tooth and nail, every day, for the next 3 years. They know Albo has the ticker for it, as he has demonstrated over a very long period. I guess, rightly or wrongly, they see Shorten as a show pony. Unfairly or not. This has nothing to do with election campaign performances, which also reflect the way Rudd ran the campaign. It’s quite simple really. They want a fighter, and they see Albo as the far superior candidate, on that basis alone. Full stop.

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