Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. ModLib 2079

    In the same way you and so many of our citizens, especially tradies, did not know and still have no idea of what the GFC was.

    We/they didn’t experience it so it never existed. All that happened was that Labor wasted so much cash on silly projects back in 08 and 09.

  2. Well 90-55-5 is going to have a very nice round feeling about it.

    The guy who emailed me who had $7000 riding on 81-90 Coalition seats will be especially happy!

  3. Mod, both you and rummel have now made overoptimistic predictions of events for things already past and proven incorrect. Meguire Bob was merely overoptimistic with predictions of future events.

    So you’re right, you’re not in his league, you’re waaaaay, waaaay ahead of him.

  4. psyclaw:

    You are refusing to accept that it is quite reasonable to claim, as I did at the time and which I reckon has proven quite right since, that the ALP overspent the stimulus.

    That is what the Liberal Party said at the time.
    That is what I said.
    We are now in significant debt.
    The ALP has continued the exaggerate spending 6 years later and we are in large deficits.

    This view might be wrong or it might be right but it is a perfectly reasonable view to hold. You seem incapable of accepting that Abbott has done very, very well. It isn’t a giant media conspiracy, it isn’t a mindless bogan electorate, it is the current ALP and an effective LOTO.

  5. [DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, September 19, 2013 at 11:43 pm | PERMALINK
    Or behind him … possibly. I’m becoming a little confused by the tenses ]

    As long as I am not next to him, I’m happy!

  6. [Kevin Bonham
    Posted Thursday, September 19, 2013 at 11:41 pm | PERMALINK
    Well 90-55-5]

    Well I make considerably more on 91 than 90 seats so I am hoping Palmer loses! I did make a small bet on him winning 1 seat, but a much bigger one on the Coalition winning 91 to 100 seats! :devil:

  7. <i.It isn’t a giant media conspiracy, it isn’t a mindless bogan electorate, it is the current ALP and an effective LOTO.

    An effective LOTO due to a very effective Chief of Staff in Peta Credlin and her partner.

  8. Display Name

    He stuffed up day after day but was not brought to account.

    1) A butcher frolic in Pt Macquarie. Ken the butcher would have to double the price of rump because of carbon pricing. Lenore Taylor investigated…. Rise was <1%. Media silent. Natchally!

    2) Old lady's power bill (in QT)…….. Price had doubled says Monkey. So had her usage. Brought to book? Nuh.

    He stuffed up all right, over and over. But his god and the MSM were happy to overlook.

    The proof of the pudding will be in how ha actually manages the nation and what the outcomes will be. If we underestimated he'll have all the skills and do well.


  9. Those things were reported and Abbott was lampooned.

    The public were heartily sick of the ALP and their infighting and wanted to get rid of them anyway. Hence poor approval rating for Abbott and terrible TPP% for ALP.

    It is not that hard really…..

  10. Mod Lib


    1) Why no media mention of the demise of daily frolics.

    About 1000 consecutive days in fluro ends overnight. Not a whisper of a comment.

    2) He has claimed throughout the campaign and several times this very day that his government will be transparent.

    But he has gone to ground, Credlin has banned ministers doing media, and Abbott said today he will be doing very little media.

    I’ll expect you to point out the widespread media commentary about this contradiction and dishonesty and hypocrisy in tomorrow’s press.

  11. Mod Lib 2113

    That is dishonest of you. Name one journo who lampooned those matters.

    Show me the date of the issue of the Telegraph front page where he was lampooned for those lies.

    Show me the date of any issue of the Telegraph where he was brought to book for anything ……

    Just one date, just one matter !

  12. DisplayName@2098

    Mod Lib@2092


    You might be right, lets get rid of the government altogether and see whether we are better or worse off for it, eh?

    I suppose it can’t hurt any more than an Abbott government .

    Ah, I’ve figured it out. This is the long term plan. Demonstrate just how bad government is so that we decide to get rid of it altogether :D. Boy that Abbott is a real long term strategic thinker!

  13. There’s a couple of articles floating round Facebook that are concerning

    This just makes me furious. Some margins were very narrow and doubtless these people will bitch and moan about the government anyway. And that they didn’t even bother to show I think is contemptible.

    Call me naive, but I would not have expected this of Fairfax. If true, it means that there is hardly any of the mainstream media that can be trusted.

    The only bit of good news I heard – and I hope it’s true – is that the new US ambassador to Australia is gay and will be bringing his partner. I hope that sticks in Abbot’s throat. Presumably he wouldn’t have the guts to piss off both the US AND Indonesia.

  14. [lefty, psy, Labor underestimated Abbott in the sense that they expected him to stuff up.]

    He did stuff up almost daily, we overestimated the populations ability to judge the stuffups.

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