Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. [Good to see you again ShowsOn.

    Who are you backing for Labor leadership?]
    Gosh I don’t know. I change my mind every day! I even asked my parents for advice tonight.

    I think I’m leaning towards Shorten.

    But I’m a pessimistic person, so I doubt either Shorten or Albanese will be the next Labor PM.

    It will probably be Bowen or Jason Clare.

    Hopefully Bowen gets to stay as Shadow Treasurer.

  3. I get the impression that many here are confusing “Labor factions, MPs and insiders” with “people who post on the Poll Bludger blog.” Look, I agree that the Rudd/Gillard arguments are pretty tiring, but I have a lot of trouble understanding how some people debating in the comments of a niche political blog somehow indicates that “the ALP hasn’t learnt its lesson” and that the caucus is currently being torn asunder by Rudd/Gillard bickering.

    Or do people genuinely think that what gets posted here is actually going to have some – ANY – influence on broader public opinion?

  6. Already we are reaping the benfits of an Abbot Government. Overnight we have seen lefties:

    1. suddenly belive that State credit ratings are important – soon they’ll be supporting Campbell Newman
    2. become concerned about sovereignty – who knows? One day they may even be concerned about Australian sovereignty
    3. are now concerned about all those boat arrivals
    4. suddenly believe that governments should be held accountable for what they promise.

    It took 6 years but you’ve all come a long way in a week – congratulations!!

  7. Now to serious business, enough of feeding loons with attention 😆

    The weekend of footy:

    Let’s hope Geelong and Sydney win, a Cats and Swans grand final is just too appropriatement in the AFL 🙂

    Now for business:

    – Had Tod Carney been playing I’d be backing the Sharks to beat Manly. I can’t see Manly withstanding another game of semi final intensity within a week. Still their class may get them through.

    – The Storm (good things) to get the cash against my Knights.

    😎

  8. Mod Lib

    “Y’all have underestimated him for years, you have claimed he was about to implode for years, you are now claiming he will be a failed Prime Minister and will be out in a few years.”

    I underestimated him? When?

    So apparently being anti-science means you will be a great Prime Minister?

    Weird

    It’s just my opinion anyway. we won’t know for sure for many years. But going on history, people who run down science tend to be remembered poorly.

  10. DisplayName 2059
    Posted Thursday, September 19, 2013 at 11:08 pm | Permalink
    Joe Blow, the difference betwen us lefties and you righties is that you all have no room for improvement .

    Well, we only delivered 10 budget surpluses in 11 years so there is some small room for improvement.

  11. “@IcUrPoint: @Richard_Hemming he refused to sign up to Gonski as if WA didn’t need the money & just cut 500 education jobs ” #forthegoodofcountry”

  12. I am just saying you might be over calling this anti science thing.

    I reckon now that his “anti” antics have worked he will suddenly revert to a responsible, consensus, everything-in-moderation kind guy.

    After all, nothing would drive the loony left more crazy than if he did that, eh??? :devil:

  15. JB
    [It took 6 years but you’ve all come a long way in a week – congratulations!!]
    Yes, it proves despite previous concerns, that Labor rusted-ons are in fact capable of learning, given enough time. However it will now take them another 3 years to learn that PM Tony Abbott is at least a 2-term PM.

  17. So you’re happy that there is no science minister, there’s no climate commission etc?

    We already had Rummel on spreading rubbish about what he though Tim Flannery claimed… So if you’re going to make claims about what he said, please find the direct quote.

  18. [I reckon now that his “anti” antics have worked he will suddenly revert to a responsible, consensus, everything-in-moderation kind guy.]
    So now carbon dioxide has weight?

  20. Joe Blow, a budget surplus indicates nothing more than the ability to tax people and then do sweet-FA with the proceeds.

    If you think that equals good government, then tell me what you think about a business manager who makes a giant profit one year (or even 10 years), but neglects to upgrade the factory’s equipment, neglects to diversify or invest in expansion: instead, just pays out 100% of the profit as a dividend to shareholders.

    Because that’s all the Howard/Costello alliance thought to do with the taxes they collected: give some back. Big whoop.

    Really impressive things, these budget surpluses.

  22. @Centre

    I’m saying to you that it would have been a politically risky proposition to do so without the support of the Greens on climate change.

    [A DD election on the CPRS fought between Labor + half of the Coalition which backed Turnbull (as political ammunition)+ the Greens v Abbott and his sceptics would have placed Rudd in a strong position – not in a position of risk]

    If the Greens had supported the CPRS, not only would there have been no need to call a DD, but it would have been impossible for Rudd to do so. What part of this don’t you understand?

    I’m genuinely baffled as to what the point you’re trying to make is.

    Additionally, its a bit naive to assume that all would be fine and dandy for Labor had the CPRS passed. Abbott was pushing the “great big new tax” line as soon as he was elected leader. There’s no reason to assume that same furor wouldn’t have erupted over the CPRS as with the Carbon Tax the follow

  23. I do believe Mod is yanking our chains. Either that or Abbott’s success in completely shaking off his women problems post-election – quite a dramatic turnaround, that, for sure, why he is now even minister for women – has swung Mod around ;).

  25. [DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, September 19, 2013 at 11:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Sure Mod, just like he started supporting SSM.]

    He might….watch this space!

  26. You know, I suspect the 1 woman cabinet is a clever ploy by Abbott to generate all this sound and fury from the left. Then, after setting the bar so low he will introduce a couple of women and say see “you’ve been complaining and I’ve done something” :P.

  27. @Centre

    I’m saying to you that it would have been a politically risky proposition to do so without the support of the Greens on climate change.

    [A DD election on the CPRS fought between Labor + half of the Coalition which backed Turnbull (as political ammunition)+ the Greens v Abbott and his sceptics would have placed Rudd in a strong position – not in a position of risk]

    If the Greens had supported the CPRS, not only would there have been no need to call a DD, but it would have been impossible for Rudd to do so. What part of this don’t you understand?

    I’m genuinely baffled as to what the point you’re trying to make is.

    Additionally, its a bit naive to assume that all would be fine and dandy for Labor had the CPRS passed. Abbott was pushing the “great big new tax” line as soon as he was elected leader. There’s no reason to assume that same furor wouldn’t have erupted over the CPRS as with the Carbon Tax the following year. The resulting scare campaign had nothing to do with the actual content of the Labor/Greens/Indi policy, but simply the fact there was some sort of carbon reduction scheme in the first place, which of course was BAD!

  28. Either that or Abbott’s success in completely shaking off his women problems post-election

    Indeed he has. He has managed to eliminate all women from Cabinet except one and she is a ‘good loyal girl’ so no worries.

  30. My predictions:
    1. Abbott returns from Indonesia with a bipartisan agreement to stop the boats – the left accuses Abbott of doing back door deals with the Indonesions.

    2. LNP party room decides on a conscience vote for SSM and a Lib introduces the legislation – left lets out a loud scream and tries to find a reason to vote against it.

  33. This “underestimating Abbott” meme is a load of bullshit.

    I, for one, always knew that he was a loudmouth, ambitious, untrustworthy, erratic pug. And nothing has changed in that regard.

    The correct word IMHO is that everyone failed to predict the outcome.

    The power and strategy and influence of Mr and Mrs Loughnane were all at a higher level than I anticipated.

    The unquestioning acceptance by the media of everything Abbott did or said was far more blatant than I anticipated. I anticipated hat there wold be at least some attempts to question his crap statements during the campaign, but I was wrong.

    I did not anticipate the extent ofAbbott’s total lack of inhibition as to how far he would push the envelope of malice. Who would have though he would be so malicious and crass in re-using the shame analogy vis a vis Mr Gillard’s death in a parliamentary speech.

    I failed to foresee that all the 43 (50% roughly) of the MPs who voted against his leadership would have totally rolled over to support his venom.

  34. You guys are really optimistic. I really admire it! Oh well, the nice thing about being pessimistic is that I will get a pleasant surprise when things turn out alright ;).

  36. Ugh, please forgive the double post and formatting errors (that first sentence was by Centre, note), Crikey and my phone don’t exactly get along.

  37. So if you don’t know what any of the other ministers did – other than the treasurers – why should it be especially significant that you don’t know what Tim Flannery and the Science minister did?

  38. *”by Centre, not me” was what I meant to say in 2086.

    Now even my corrections have typos. I can imagine that turning into a vicious cycle quite quickly.

  40. Continuing after a premature posting…………

    Abbott is PM not because he possesses some hidden talents so many of us failed to see.

    No, he won because in the end he was prepared to do anything, he was allowed to do/ say anything, and he did say/do anything.

    If it was a mere underestimation by Labor and our ilk, then he will thrive as PM, using all those competencies we failed to see. And pigs might fly.

    Bring on the inevitable damage and pain, so that he will be booted ASAP.

  41. [I don’t even know what the Science minister or Flannery have done in the last 6 years to know what not having them might mean.

    Do you know?]
    Well Greg Hunt said to day that his department will now do the same work.

    In other words, whatever research or information is developed will be filtered by a politician if and when it is made available to the public.

  44. Oh snap, don’t tell me Mod Lib pulled a rummel and predicted something that had *already* been squashed? You guys are outdoing Meguire Bob. At least he predicts future events, not past ones!

  45. Al Dente 2070

    Heard the one about the guy who borrowed money to pay for insulation but his house burnt down, a few new sheds but then couldn’t afford to put anything in it, kept promising his bank he’d earn more next year to pay for it etc etc.

  46. AS Ive said before,the greatest risk is overestimating Abbott, just because he won after the ALP imploded.

    Take the piss out of him, and dont spare the horses: with a couple of exceptions, this ministry is the blind leading the stupid. Has any previous new government ever generated lesss enthusiams? Why was there no bounce after the election?

    Because popular expectations are pretty low.

  49. [DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, September 19, 2013 at 11:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh snap, don’t tell me Mod Lib pulled a rummel and predicted something that had *already* been squashed? You guys are outdoing Meguire Bob. At least he predicts future events, not past ones!]

    I am not sure I can be measured in the Meguire Bob league…..whatever happened to him anyway?

  50. No bounce? Seen the ASX in the past week? Business confidence through the roof.

    And no boats since Abbott was sworn in!

    And already the taxpayer is saving money eith Flannery off teh public teat.

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