The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
Diogenes
[It has to be said that if you live in a barrel that you are probably not overburdened with ambition.]
Fair call. Then again, if the apocryphal accounts are correct, he seems to have enjoyed himself enormously.
lefty e
[- Removing carbon price and “green tape” to expand coal production etc. FAIL! Rudd was right: the future WONT be like the past,peak coal in China already reached, projects now being cancelled.
– Turn back the boats. FAIL! Indonesia politely tells Abbott to piss off.
– Direct Action: Modelling shows it cant achieve its stated goals with amount to be spent, LNP makes it pretty clear it was all bullshit anyway. FAIL!
– NBN. Liberal voters start massive petition urging Turnbull to continue ALP policy. Turnbull announces major delay in new policy. FAIL!]
lefty – after our recent election dealings I hesitate to humiliate you again (btw Labor won’t even make 55 seats, let alone 61, and 2PP is heading towards 46.5% to ALP if they’re lucky, nearly 1pc point below you 47.3%) but I predict as oer yr points above: 1)carbon TAX & ETS will go, 2)Boats in international waters will be turned back 3)Direct Action … in reality who cares anymore, pseudo saving the planet via Oz is so yesterday 4)NBN is a disaster and a problem for Oz not just for Libs and I really don’t know how the new government is gonna sort out the nearly $100bn mess left by the incompetent Rudd-Gillard-Greens Rudd hopeless Labor-Greens govt. Eventually we’ll have to take the write-down of the “Asset” to budget bottom line – thanks Labor-Greens!
1900
Did you think they were going to appoint someone from the ADF?
Did you not know they want to be in the Americans` good books?
[
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 9:47 pm | Permalink
Has Labor finished talking about itself yet?!?
]
The discussion seems to be about the missing government. Probable for the best is my view, they havn’t stuffed anything up yet.
Will we see a few more ALP resignations over the coming weeks? Plibersek maybe…
pedant
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 9:57 pm | Permalink
Have they sorted out yet whether the 3 star (= Lieutenant) General will be in the ADF chain of command? If not, would the government be able to direct someone to do the job? I suppose they might be able to offer it to a current 2 star as a promotion. And being prepared to take on a tough task which saves a PM’s backside is a good career move: ask General Cosgrove.
——————————————–
It goes against all conventions and separation of Govt and military to have a “junior” officer responsible directly to a Minister and not their commanding officer.
Its the sort of thing dictatorships do to undermine the authority of military commanders.
AussieAchmed
I think after many failed attempts the Liberals have hit on the right policy for boat arrivals; don’t tell anyone.
AussieAchmed @ 1900: Actually, as I understand it, the “star” nomenclature is informally used in quite a few countries, including Australia and the USA, to describe ranks with different local titles. But 1 stars are Brigadiers here, and Brigadier-Generals in the USA. And our 5 star Field Marshalls are their Generals of the Army. I’ve spent a lot of time working with Australia Army officers, and they talk about 1 stars and 2 stars and so on all the time. To pick at Mr Abbott for using the same terminology is sub trivial.
Actually if there is no government what is the opposition to do? Perhaps another very smart move.
I saw a Plibersek poster in a garbage can in Hyde park last night. Where it belongs I say…
What does Abbott stand for?: http://wp.me/p30D9d-1Ee
perhaps he will tell us more when he comes out of hiding
Do I detect sour grapes ached…
this must be a joke?
[ Hockey to raise debt ceiling
http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_to_raise_debt_ceiling_aQmYFEr1XBGVjDX ]
pedant
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed @ 1900: Actually, as I understand it, the “star” nomenclature is informally used in quite a few countries, including Australia and the USA, to describe ranks with different local titles. But 1 stars are Brigadiers here, and Brigadier-Generals in the USA. And our 5 star Field Marshalls are their Generals of the Army. I’ve spent a lot of time working with Australia Army officers, and they talk about 1 stars and 2 stars and so on all the time. To pick at Mr Abbott for using the same terminology is sub trivial.
————————————————-
I am ex-military, along with a brother, uncle and two nephews still serving…never heard any of our “bosses’ referred to as 2 star/3 star etc
New2This
[Do I detect sour grapes ached…]
I’d be surprised if you could detect whether your shoelaces were done up … Sour grapes are almost certainly beyond your ken.
Going back over previous post.
[
frednk
Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
William Bowe
Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink
You’re right, Frednk! Putting Don Farrell ahead of Penny Wong is a great idea!
It is a long way from, “it doesn’t matter” ,to, “it is a great idea”.
]
Yes William you were right.
Oh Fran what can I say…
1913
Unfortunately it is a joke that is reality.
paaptsef
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 10:16 pm | Permalink
this must be a joke?
Hockey to raise debt ceiling
http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_to_raise_debt_ceiling_aQmYFEr1XBGVjDX
—————————————————
It would be laughable if it wasn’t for the number of pages devoted to slamming Labor Party Government for the same thing by the MSM and pages like these filled with Liberals and their sycophant supporters doing the same.
Hypocrites – new dictionary definition has a photo of the Liberal logo
1918 but what will we tell the great grandchildren when they realise the Libs took on all this debt with no plan to do anything with it apart from giving mining billionaires a tax break
New2this
[Oh Fran what can I say…]
Nothing worth reading … that much is clear.
So the Libs want to go further into debt. What do our Lib spruikers think of this?
[Oh Fran what can I say…]
From what we’ve seen so far, very little.
And Fran your literary diarrhoea is any better…
I give a month and people will be regretting the day they voted for this shambles of a Coalition govt.
Flag will remain at half mast
AussieAchmed @ 1914: Maybe it’s a more common usage among the ranks of the senior officers themselves, which is where I mostly heard it.
I was going to ask why the Liberal voters on here are so unpleasant, then I did a quick google search, which came up with this;
http://www.ibtimes.com/people-low-iq-tend-be-socially-conservative-new-study-401470
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/intelligence-study-links-prejudice_n_1237796.html
http://aattp.org/multiple-scientific-studies-confirm-extreme-conservatism-linked-to-racism-and-low-i-q/
Gary
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink
So the Libs want to go further into debt. What do our Lib spruikers think of this?
———————————–
and will go further in debt with their tax cuts to advantage business.
no-one can reduce revenue and be better off
[Hockey to raise debt ceiling]
Hilarious.
What do this mob stand for? You certainly can’t trust anything they say in opposition.
Carlton are gone, and it looks like the Aussie cricketers are in a bit of trouble as well.
confessions
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink
Hockey to raise debt ceiling
Hilarious.
What do this mob stand for? You certainly can’t trust anything they say in opposition.
—————————
I think you mean anything they SAID in Opposition.
Abbott said they were ready to “hit the ground running”.
It’s a slow run up..one week so far…how much longer will they keep hiding and not taking responsibility for running the country?
reckon the Aussie bowlers will have a good day out on this pitch Confessions
Hockey issues warning on debt ceiling lift
May 17
http://www.smh.com.au/business/hockey-issues-warning-on-debt-ceiling-lift-20120516-1yr65.html
Hockey to raise debt ceiling
Sept 5
http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_to_raise_debt_ceiling_aQmYFEr1XBGVjDX
Night all.
Hold the faith. Labor got more votes than the Liberals.
It is only their Coalition with minor parties that sees them in government
Oooppppss what was it Abbott said about minor parties???
[reckon the Aussie bowlers will have a good day out on this pitch]
I’ve learned through the Tests to anticipate our cricketers to fail expectations.
How come it took Rudd a full 9 days to be sworn in as PM back in 2007?!?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-12-03/rudd-sworn-in-as-new-pm/975618
Or is this just another case of lefties being hypocritical dickheads?
And the band played on while the Titanic sunk… Keep the faith Achmed…
confessions
I was at the game. Due to travel times left half way through third quarter as writing was on the wall.
I am a Swans supporter too.
I blame Essendon for the result. My second team is Carlton and I wanted both teams to fight till last siren. No such luck
guytaur:
We were always going to find it tough to beat the Swans. They played well considering their injuries.
N2T
Considering Clive Palmer’s relationship to the Liberal Party I would not be so glibly mentioning the Titanic
[Hold the faith. Labor got more votes than the Liberals.]
If that lie gets you to sleep at night, the more power to you.
Rudd didn’t claim “from day one”.
Rudd didn’t say “we will hit the ground running”
Rudd didn’t say ” we have a front bench that has previously been in Govt and ready to govern”
The beat, and the fun, goes on:
‘Tonight, Mr Rudd has declined to dignify Julia Gillard’s 5,000 word essay with a response issuing a lengthy “no comment”.’
This Laurel & Hardy stuff could go on for 3 years unless replaced by Shorten-Albo feuds. I can see the 2016 Labor loss excuses already: … we were still suffering from the lingering effects of 2013 infighting.
confessions
Carlton will do better next year. Malthouse will be having a say in recruitment.
Now I just want Swans to do a back to back Premiership. Nothing too greedy.
[ I’ve learned through the Tests to anticipate our cricketers to fail expectations. ]
i reckon our cricketers exceeded expectations in the Tests now lets see teh Poms play in Aus in a couple of months
From the AEC page
Australian Labor Party 3,902,425
Liberal 3,703,007
All out! We couldn’t even go the 50 overs!
@AussieAchmed 1946
That’s excluding the Queensland LNP, though.
paapstef:
I had expected we’d play better in the Tests. But am hoping we can do a hell of a lot better in Australia.
mick77, tonight the Libs continued to release no policies because they don’t trust anyone to talk about anything lest they talk about policies that aren’t actually policies. Could it be that the Libs are frozen by their own incompetence?