The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
@janecat60: Abbott has already broken his commitment that no worker would be worse off. #childcare #agedcare
http://t.co/Q8UMEreFY4
Via @GedKACTU”
[Has Labor finished talking about itself yet?!?]
Have you finished dribbling shit yet, hack?
I just heard the news that Russia and US have made a diplomatic agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons.
Fantastic. Credit to all making it happen.
Can we have a rule against that stupid talking point about the Labor Party getting more primary votes? It’s stupid, misleading and irrelevant!
[From the AEC page
Australian Labor Party 3,902,425
Liberal 3,703,007]
And the Queensland Libs?
Never go full retard
paaps
[tonight the Libs continued to release no policies]
We just had an election and Abbott govt to be sworn in for 6 years on Monday; what policies were you awaiting tonight?
[Have you finished dribbling shit yet, hack?]
We are barely 1 week past the annihilation at the election and Labor are talking about themselves already!
Heres Gillard dumping shit on Rudd:
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/julia-gillard-launches-scathing-attack-on-kevin-rudd-and-the-pain-she-still-feels-over-being-dumped/story-fnii5s3x-1226719034631
It’s gonna be a long 3 years folks….
[ From the AEC page
Australian Labor Party 3,902,425
Liberal 3,703,007 ]
when will we be rid of this illegitimate incompetent government
Mick77
[what policies were you awaiting tonight?]
The ones that ought to have been specified at least 8 weeks ago.
Mick
Abbott is being sworn in for a term. Three years.
Hubris to just assume Second term. Unless of course you are expecting vote rigging.
Or to put it another way. Do not count your chickens until they are hatched.
guytaur
[I just heard the news that Russia and US have made a diplomatic agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons.
Fantastic. Credit to all making it happen.]
Spoken like a true Greens supporter. Nothing has “happened yet” and I wouldn’t trust Putin, Assad or Obama any further than I could throw Lee Rhiannon. Let’s wait and see and keep in mind “peace in our time” Chamberlain who brought war and was cheered by all the “peace-loving” Poms.
guytaur
[Do not count your chickens until they are hatched]
Normally yes, but I’m prepared to go out on a limb on this one – 6 years .. at least. The public doesn’t forget Labor-Greens chaos in only 3 years.
[We are barely 1 week past the annihilation at the election and Labor are talking about themselves already!]
A party talking about themselves! What a scandal! It’s almost as if they’ve just lost an election or something.
Tell your party masters they need to feed you better lines to copy and paste than that one. It’s kind of pathetic.
Still, there’s that lingering question: why are the Coalition supporters so bitter? They just won an election. So much bile on the right, I think they’ve forgotten how to find joy in things (except schadenfreude, of course.)
[why are the Coalition supporters so bitter?]
Because Rudd & Swan won their seats.
Mick
The phrase “making it happen”
Its better than killing people by bombing them.
You can with US Military power always do that later. No harm with trying for peace.
Military action will only escalate. Of that there is no doubt. Therefore genuinely trying the peaceful way is better. Plus this fails Russia will be drawn into military action too meaning less risk of destabilisation with them involved
Fran
[The ones that ought to have been specified at least 8 weeks ago.]
Stop The : carbon tax, boats and Greens. All pretty clear to me.
[Because Rudd & Swan won their seats]
But you won government and will get a somewhat friendly Senate! Here’s your opportunity to implement an agenda that you think is right. Where’s the optimism? This is your chance. Blank cheque and all that.
Bonza 1927
It seems Tism was a subject in all three experiments.
And his ongoing discourse here shows that he wasn’t shamming in the study….. the results show the real it.
Mick
It may dissappoint you but the Greens were involved in no chaos in the last three years.
As for Labor there was only some personality and personnel managenent problems that had no effect on running the country.
This is fact as all the economic including employment figures and the like testify.
Much as LNP and Murdoch Journos like to paint otherwise those are the facts.
@Mick77 1966
[Stop The : carbon tax, boats and Greens. All pretty clear to me.]
Gee, your right, what a comprehensive policy platform.
There is actually a little more to governing than repealing a single piece of legislation, “stopping” asylum seekers (because of course they won’t be any more boats now that Abbott’s PM, not a single one, no ifs or buts) and reducing a minor party’s influence.
I said policies not silly slogans … though I’ll grant that the Libs behave as if there’s no difference.
Your sharper members (Jaymes Diaz, Fiona Scott) don’t bother even learning the slogans, because they know that’s all they are.
[ Still, there’s that lingering question: why are the Coalition supporters so bitter? ]
it’s something to do with the Libs inability to propose any alternatives to Labor’s economic management and simply adopting Labor’s entire agenda to win an election
guytaur
[No harm with trying for peace.]
It all depends because illusions of peace bring greater risk of war. It may cost lives rather than save them as Assad and the Russians get everything hidden, Iran style, and I doubt that the families of the children who were gassed by Assad believe that backing off is a step for peace. I’m not ignoring the inhuman atrocities by some rebel groups, but when the US President pedals backwards on a clear red-line commitment, this does not augur well for world or local ME peace. The Russians and their allies can smell weakness and exploit it.
Hopefully the new government will be sworn in soon and we can get back to more sensible discussion/attack on the new government’s policies and performance. The discussion at present is just a little immature.
I thought most of us would have moved past who can pee the further a long tome ago.
We need a poll 🙂
Mick – so what you are saying is: to prevent war breaking out in the Middle East, the US needs to… invade Syria?
mick
Hiding the weapons won’t save Assad thats what Chapter 7 is all about.
Syria is not part of the deal because it includes chapter 7
davidwh
[I thought most of us would have moved past who can pee the further a long time ago.]
Given that your party spent much of the last three years on saying pretty much just that “{…} will always be better under a coalition government” I’d say your call is premature.
David, I agree.
[We need a poll]
I’d love to see a Preferred PM poll!!!
Coalition Leader Tony Abbott 62%
Labor Leader ??????????? 30%
Labor is going to be Rudderless and Leaderless for at least a month! Brilliant!
The American People have finally made it clear that they want peace
_______________________
A Counterpunch writer looks at the surge of public opposition to any attack on Syria in the US … of which the Russian actions cleverly caught the mood…and the way Obama has been forced to back off from the neo-con inspired plan for an attack on Syria
……..and this has frustrated the Israeli and their zionist backers in Congress who want a war with Syria as a preliminary to a full on attack on Iran…which is the real Israeli target
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/13/the-people-say-no-to-war-finally/
Fran I’m actually largely anti-political parties although I accept they generally do provide the most stable governments. As for both the L-NP and Labor’s performances for the past three years well I wouldn’t be proudly claiming to be part of either. We can only wish the next three will be an improvement.
Abbott is frozen because he can’t be sure if he is talking about an actual policy or not and doesn’t want to embarrass himself.
Asha Leu
[the US needs to… invade Syria?]
What invasion are you talking about? Israel bombed Syria’s nuclear reactor, bombed a few times advanced weaponry headed, or warehoused for the Hizbullah terrorists in Lebanon. Syria’s response, and that of its allies Russia and Iran, has been zero because Israel was acting on its consisted logically stated policies and US should do the same. There is far greater risk now of Israel having to attack Iran’s nuclear sites (alone) because the US under Obama is proving to be an unreliable ally and seems now to be about to be legged over by Iran, as it has been by Syria. “Peace” does not arise from a short-term lack of action; that is often the opposite as it was in Munich 1938, namely appeasement. Many more lives have been saved by Israel destroying Iran’s nuclear reactor in 1980 and Syria’s a few years ago; similarly US would have saved many more lives in the long-run by taking out Syria’s chemical weapons before they got scattered and hidden.
[Labor is going to be Rudderless and Leaderless for at least a month! Brilliant!]
Which is not going to matter in the slightest at the next election.
Unlike some, I regard a public campaign at this time to lead the ALP as salutary. Really, there is nothing better they can do with their time.
At this point in the cycle, this is (potentially) far better PR than they could realistically hope for if the usual post-election loss pattern were followed.
I won’t be surprised if, 3 months from now, they are close to parity.
[Still, there’s that lingering question: why are the Coalition supporters so bitter? ]
FFS CM, its their natural condition after all.
Grace in Victory is just not within the mental universe of their tribal grupenthunk.
In fact, pretty much anything Labor do over the next 6 months won’t really matter on the greater scheme of things. As is the case of every other party when they first get sent back to the opposition benches. This is why it’s an ideal time to air out its dirty laundry and fix things.
Only a sad, lonely hack (like Sean) cares what the polls have to say right now.
Gary 1978 thanks.
The country needs assurance from our new leader that his government has made the correct decision to massively increase our debt level but he has gone missing in fear of saying something
[Labor is going to be Rudderless and Leaderless for at least a month! Brilliant!]
Gee ST, you say that like you think the first month of a party being in opposition actually matters. You really are a sadly ignorant pinhead of an individual aren’t you?
Oh cripes, I see we’ve drawn deblonay out of his SS bunker where he researches day & night all of the Jewish conspiracies to push the world into war and stealthily take it over and thereby achieve world Jewish domination in the same way that we’ve taken over all banks, all international corporations, all western governments and framed Bin Laden for 9/11. I thought he was holed up permanently in the SS bunker for fear of us.
@abcnews: US, Russia agree on plan to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014. Arms inspectors must be in Syria by Nov http://t.co/oshJPLna5Q
AussieAchmed, you really don’t help Labor by repeating such silly falsehoods as that Labor outpolled the Liberals. The Liberal figure you cite doesn’t include Qld or the NT. I’m sure you know this.
These are the meaningful figures:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2013/2013reps1.txt
Hat-trick Mckay
McKay just bowled a hat trick!
davidwh
[Fran I’m actually largely anti-political parties although I accept they generally do provide the most stable governments. ]
If you’ve read my preferred governance model, then you’ll know I am too. I’m also not sure that the kind of “stability” parties offer is all that valuable.
[As for both the L-NP and Labor’s performances for the past three years well I wouldn’t be proudly claiming to be part of either. We can only wish that during the next three there will be an improvement.{slightly edited for fluency: FB}]
One can wish, but there’s simply no basis for confidence in that and ample basis for inferring that we will be disappointed with what ensues.
Yep I can’t see any problem with Labor taking some time to settle their leadership issue. It’s really only critical to have things settled for when parliament resumes. Both side have a lot to do between now and then.
Good night
Fran I think political parties weaken pure democracy however I generally get into strife when I suggest that. It’s really a balance between elected members truely representing the people who voted for them and having a parliament that works effectively. I don’t think there are any easy answers to that conflict.
Also I’m not overly confident how the current government will perform however we collectively elected them so I hope they surprise me.
Hey Sean Tisme, care to revise your Indi declaration?
Or too soon to ask?XD