The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
bemused – I didn’t know that either, over to Abbott then.
Sheridan saying today that, despite a concerted effort, Johnstone will be Minister for Defence. There are concerns about his ability to stand up to…
Just about everyone I reckon. He is weak.
[Western Australia’s mining heavyweights have met for the first time since the election of the new Coalition Government and say sentiment in the sector is already improving.
Last night in Perth, resources industry leaders said they were happy with the change of government but worried about a tough global economic climate ahead.
“I guess there’s a quiet groundswell of confidence,” said Mark Bennett from Sirius Resource
“I think the general view is it’s got to be good because irrespective of policy, people want certainty, and there hasn’t been much of that.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/mining-heavyweights-say-government-change-has-boosted-sentiment/4958078
If there wasn’t ‘certainty’ it was because of Abbott wrecking the joint by talking down our economy.
Oh hilarious:
[“But I think that everyone’s pleased, regardless of what party’s in power, that we’ve actually got someone in the office running the country, and I think that’s been missing for quite some time.]
Says a mining exec Chris Ellison – the same Chris Ellison former Liberal Senator for WA?
mikehilliard@1801
Yes, I think it was feeney who posted a link to the correspondence on the GG’s website. It was interesting to see just how simple and ordinary it was.
confessions
‘Mark Bennett’ a mining heavyweight? Who?
Boerwar:
Perhaps in a literal sense?
[ Labor REALLY REALLY REALLY loves talking about themselves!!! ]
so do the media and the coalition and meanwhile the Libs aren’t even competent enough to know if something is their policy or not before they go on radio to defend it
The libs were in court in NSW recently ,remember? The far out loopy right versus the off the planet right. Something about internal voting?
[So, Dio, debased any currency lately?]
If you count my betting slip on Swans for the flag, I might be debasing that later tonight.
ESJ
Evidently Gillard didn’t take up your kind offer of sharing a champagne with her.
[“I sat alone on election night as the results came in,” she writes.
“I wanted it that way. I wanted to just let myself be swept up in it.”]
ROFL
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 8h
Labor’s Tony Burke – Tony Abbott said in his first week he’d go to Indonesia…never occurred to me in his first week I’d still be Minister
[NORTHERN Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles has denied his family’s accusation that he misrepresented his Aboriginal ancestry during his maiden speech to parliament five years ago.
Mr Giles’s grandmother, Lois Romer, told The Weekend Australian that her grandson was talking “rubbish” when he described her as an Aboriginal woman who was “born in the Pilliga scrub” of northern NSW.
“Believe me, I was never born in the bush in the Pilliga,” Ms Romer said. “I really feel cranky with Adam because I can’t believe he would say something like that just to better himself.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/row-over-heritage-of-nt-chief-minister-adam-giles/story-fn59niix-1226718868832
Giles denies saying this about his grandmother, but there is a record of his speech to the Territory parliament saying otherwise.
And he whinges about private matters being aired in public, but he himself has made a thing of his cultural heritage, so it’s fair enough. And after the personal, sexist abuse the former PM received, and comments about her father’s death, it’s too late now to whinge about the media printing this stuff.
[“I sat alone on election night as the results came in,” she writes.
“I wanted it that way. I wanted to just let myself be swept up in it.”]
In other words, she wanted to get absolutely shitfaced and yell at the TV when Rudd was on, without anybody else seeing it! 😉
Looks like Abbott will be tested on same sex marriage laws, with the fundie lobbyists leaning on the coalition to override ACT marriage equality laws.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/christians-urge-overrule-of-gay-marriage-law/story-fn9qr68y-1226718872032
frednk@1812
Perhaps Tone wants to outsource all the work of government to the existing ministers? I mean, it does involve work and thought. 👿
confessions
Different Ellison but look how the poor dear suffered under the yoke of Julia.
[Mineral Resources founder Chris Ellison makes quick $41m selling shares March 29, 2012
Mr Ellison made headlines in late 2009 when he paid a record $57.5 million for a Mosman Park mansion.
Mr Ellison is one of the country’s richest men, with a net worth of $519 million, according to BRW’s 2011 rich list]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/mineral-resources-founder-makes-quick-41m/story-e6frg2qc-1226313652788
I’m tired of this Rudd/Gillard crap.
If Rudd is required to STFU.
Then Gillard should STFU, too.
And leave us all in peace.
MH@1795
Why wait until Monday?
As I posted earlier, Shane Wright, Economics writer for the West came out this morning and just said: “Abbott has not kept one of his Week 1 promises.”
If Julie Bishop, at her boss’s request I suppose, denied Bracks his gig – why wait until Monday? The coalition is already making decisions.
I think it is important, without getting nasty about it, to just stick the coalition failures right into them.
He promised all kinds of things to the gullible – in the first week – he has not done any of them. He lied.
What’s good enough muck thrown at “Juliar” is fair game to throw straight back as Rabbot crap.
I respect my fellow citizens in Oz have voted in a party I do not support – 53% TPP. Even a selection of some morons who come here. That is democracy.
The Liberal party has selected Abbott as leader not me.
As I do not agree with their choice, and had no say in it directly, Abbott is fair game – come what may. He is only “my” PM because convention says he must be for the next little while. Other than than he has no support and allegiance from me.
I suffered a group of smug, well heeled Aussies in a plane a few months ago where they bagged everything to do with PMJG and Labor to a group of amazed Americans who kind of know something about “My country right or wrong”. Having seen and heard the behaviour of these Oz souls, the gloves are now off for me too. On my next trip I will seek to denigrate Abbott and the tories to any foreigner who might care to engage. Such is my shift in opinion about Abbott.
Never thought it would come to this but there you are.
May he crash and burn, politically, as soon as possible. I don’t hate the man personally because I don’t know him and at all. It is what he stands for that I detest.
Carey,
That’s what I wanted to do but was unfortunate enough to be a) in polite company and b) donating blood the next morning.
poroti:
Positively slumming it!
C) on my P plates.
The Libs are quiet because they’re busy for once.
Confessions
Read the same piece and the bit about “we don’t care who is in office” is a total bowl of tripe.
This from the same group who opened their cheque books at the time of the MRRT to the conservatives, talked about sovereign debt rish, and saw Julie Bishop and Twiggy have a hip-joined embrace here in Perth.
In the meantime Barnaby J in the pocket of Gina R – she of the “pay the workers Bangladesh wages”.
[If Rudd is required to STFU.
Then Gillard should STFU, too.]
The key differences of course are:
1. Gillard does not have a demonstrable history of whiteanting against her party.
2. Gillard has sensibly waited until after the election, and the week following it when nobody is paying attention to politics to state her case.
3. Given she hasn’t spent the last 3 years leaking to the press with her side of the story, this is the first time the public are hearing it.
But I thought Australia was now ‘open for business’?
Looks like Rudd was right Tony: we’ve hit peak China coal demand, and now its sliding.
[It didn’t take long for prime minister-elect Tony Abbott to get a lesson in the harsh realities of international markets. Just days after his election, his repeated promise to repeal the carbon price, the mining tax, roll back green tape and open the country up to business, one of the biggest mining projects in the country – the $7 billion Wandoan coal mine in Queensland – was scrapped.
This was something that was only supposed to happen under a Labor/Green government. But, as Glencore Xstrata CEO Ivan Glasenburg made clear on Tuesday, the world has changed. There is simply not enough demand from other countries, and prices are way too low to justify new projects.
This should have come as no surprise to Abbott’s closest advisors, presuming they are doing their job properly, and not just listening to the overtures of Gina Rinehart. Nearly a third of the world’s thermal coal supplies are losing money because of significant shifts in consumption and economic priorities in China, the world’s biggest coal user, and elsewhere….
The implications for the newly elected conservative government in Australia, which had pinned its policies on the future being exactly like the past, are enormous. Its policies are almost entirely geared towards re-igniting a mining boom, particularly in the coal industry. The carbon price, incentives for renewables, and “green tape” are being removed specifically to make that possible.]
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/tony-abbott-gets-crash-course-in-carbon-bubbles-88258
[Labor REALLY REALLY REALLY loves talking about themselves!!!
Leadershit continues!]
A political party having a leadership election, after the current leader steps down after losing the election! Stop the presses!
mikehilliard
Yes. If you go to the Governor-General’s site, and then to “Caretaker Government” you will see a copy of the correspondence which passed between PMKR and the GG, on Sunday 8 September.
It’s interesting to read, and puts it everything in perspective.
tricot:
I called hogwash on this increased confidence thing the other day when I first saw reports of it. Nothing I’ve seen since convinces me it’s nothing other than pro-Liberal spin.
Bugler@1820
Donating blood on a Sunday?
[Carey,
That’s what I wanted to do but was unfortunate enough to be a) in polite company and b) donating blood the next morning.]
I wanted to get hammered but I was too busy seriously covering it and, by the time the evening was winding up, I wasn’t in the mood for drinking anymore.
DisplayName
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 7:59 pm | Permalink
The Libs are quiet because they’re busy for once.
—————————————————
Busy writing policies that are based on the 3 word rants
“oh shit we won!! What are we supposed to do now??”
Was the cry heard from Menzies House and Lib HQ.
some leadership the PM elect has gone missing, – leaving the Govt and country in caretaker mode..what a dysfunctional disgrace this Coalition of 4 Parties is
[Sheridan saying today that, despite a concerted effort, Johnstone will be Minister for Defence. There are concerns about his ability to stand up to…
Just about everyone I reckon. He is weak.]
Worse than that, he’s stupid: the classic pompous empty suit. After the highly effective team of Smith, Kelly and Feeney, Defence and the ADF will be horrified.
confessions@1825
1. A lie.
2. So far Rudd has said nothing. So what?
3. So Kerry-Anne Walsh made it all up? And so did other journos? Another lie.
Bemused,
Not in the end. The fact that I had episodes of convulsive syncopy scared them off. Still, I would definately have preferred to have slept in.
confessions
Rudd has never had a chance publicly to state his case re June 2010, or has chosen not to, just like Gillard.
Oh well, perhaps the Rudd/Gillard crap is not over.
They can now give interviews, write books, and give us their versions.
The debate will continue, with both sides disagreeing.
The whole sorry saga is a blight on the Labor Party and its factional machinations.
Onwards and upwards.
Lets look at how the wheels have fallen off before Abbott is even sworn in:
– Removing carbon price and “green tape” to expand coal production etc. FAIL! Rudd was right: the future WONT be like the past,peak coal in China already reached, projects now being cancelled.
– Turn back the boats. FAIL! Indonesia politely tells Abbott to piss off.
– Direct Action: Modelling shows it cant achieve its stated goals with amount to be spent, LNP makes it pretty clear it was all bullshit anyway. FAIL!
– NBN. Liberal voters start massive petition urging Turnbull to continue ALP policy. Turnbull announces major delay in new policy. FAIL!
Other than that, going pretty well.
feeney:
Rudd has spent 3 years engaged in a destructive whispering campaign which made it very clear that his revenge took priority over the re-election of a Labor govt.
If he has nothing more to say it’s because it’s already been said by him and his boosters.
[If they had in the past encouraged their members to join the ALP then they would have a very large say via those members. But that is not what they want. They want a handful of union officials to wield disproportionate power.]
Exactly, Bemused.
In nay case:If they polled my union, they’d not only be polling a bunch of GRN voters, many officials are active members of the GRNs, and the union only donates to GRN election campaigns.
Now,as much as Id find that situtation ok by me: Im kinda guessing ALP members wouldnt be so keen on my union having a say in the ALP leadership.
I should clarify, have had episodes in the past. I didn’t fit in the middle if a Red Cross centre after failing to disclose elements of my medical history
Wondering how Rabbott will go trying to abolish the highly popular mining tax?
Bugler@1835
I didn’t know the Blood Bank was open on Sunday. I do my donations on Saturday mornings.
Confessions
What the mining heavy weight means but won’t say is that they are optimistic because their investment has paid dividends, Rabbott’s in the lodge.
Bemused,
If you can be bothered going to Ringwood, that’s open. I have rehearsals Sat morning, which would otherwise be the logical time to do it.
If ever there was a bootstrapping article for the coalition, it’s this.
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bishop-cancels-first-class-tickets-to-new-york-20130913-2tq8p.html
Dee:
Quite so.
confessions
Who says he has nothing more to say? I’m sure he has.
I know nothing more than what I read or hear, and I don’t know exactly the full truth. I doubt that we ever will.
I just want them both to STFU, and let Labor get on with the job.
It is inevitable, I guess, that both Rudd and Gillard will write their memoirs and their versions will appear.
Until then, I just want it all to stop.
The whole saga is really debilitating for all concerned.
Psephos
We could always look on the bright side. Johnston being weak and stupid is better than Johnston being strong and stupid…
Itep,earlier
[Lefty e, NZ and the UK give the unions a say in the leadership too. I think it’s 40/40/20 in NZ isn’t it?]
Yes it is, Itep. In the UK its a third each.
I wouldnt oppose this sort of ratio in Australia, but Im quite wary of union leaders speaking for members and calling it “the labour movement”.
AS Psephos noes,in the UK individual union members get polled. But Miliband even wants to reform this:
[Mr Miliband admitted that his proposed changes – which would require union members to individually opt in to Labour affiliation – represented a “massive challenge”.
But he said sticking with the current system was a “bigger risk” and he urged them to have the courage to change with just 18 months to go to the next general election.
“Some people ask: what’s wrong with the current system?” Mr Miliband told Trades Union Congress (TUC) delegates in Bournemouth on England’s south coast.
“Let me tell them: we have three million working men and women affiliated to our party. But the vast majority play no role in our party. They are affiliated in name only.
“That’s why I want to make each and every affiliated trade union member a real part of their local party.
“Making a real choice to be a part of our party. So they can have a real voice in it.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/uk-labour-leader-ed-miliband-proposes-union-link-reform/story-e6frg6so-1226716629954
Swans with two bad injuries already… ahead on the board but will they run out of puff?
This one is going to be won on guts.