The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
1/3d
You got it muttley. 😉
Random individuals don’t initiate legal action without bloody good reason to do so.
If you’re suggesting we should be on the lookout for LNP funded troublemakers, well, that would make for an interesting media story.
Albo has driven a lot of economic reform such as the rationalisation of regulation (eg truck industry) and the infrastructure funds allocation process, and those are just the ones I remember off the top of my head. I hardly think he’s a policy or administrative lightweight as some seem to imply. Happy to hear any supporting or opposing evidence.
EsJ
‘I am but a humble truth teller boer war , it’s just my misfortune that many of you don’t like to be confronted with awkward facts.’
It is your humbleness that is so endearing. Apparently Abbott flirted with trailing his humility on election night but thought better of it.
After all, who would believe him?
So, Dio, what did you do to deserve all that?
Jackal how naive, of course there are going to be one or two ashbys out there, you’d have to be extremely naive to think this isn’t going to happen.
This really means NBN will not change under Turnbull.
[ANY changes to Labor’s laws for the National Broadband Network will be delayed until the middle of next year amid concerns that Labor and the Greens will obstruct key planks of the Coalition’s agenda in the Senate.
The Australian understands the Coalition plans to amend the laws are unlikely before the new Senate starts in the middle of next year as many of the new senators are considered more supportive of the Coalition’s flagship policies than the current bloc of Labor and Greens.]
A few hundred thousand more fibre connections that will make FTTN unequitable.
The LNP are the ‘adults in the room’ now, right? Playing legal silly buggers isn’t the look of a ‘calm responsible government’.
ESJ
[Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?]
The Steve Jobs bio by Isaacson was excellent. I’m reading Caravaggio: A Life Sacred and Profane at the moment which is superb.
Jackal , these things are always done in a deniable way. Remember senator field in 1975 ?
J
Orang Bodoh an adult?
Try telling the Indonesians.
EsJ – The stutter on the button ameliorates your silly postings.
1762
I though that FTTP was not enshrined in legislation (even though it should have been)?
I though that the legislative changes were more about ownership and monopoly status?
We’ve got plenty of lawyers here but I thought the courts would have to give the member standing to argue the case and then would have to agree to hear the case.
I’m not sure it would pass those hurdles.
Hmmm… Colorada just had a one-in-one-thousand year storm.
So they should be right for the next 999 years, AGW permitting.
If any coalition front-person tries to take on the Labor Party leadership process, I imagine their mischievous intent will rapidly become evident and the courts will refuse to entertain their claims, even if they have nominal standing as a member of the ALP. Courts have to deal with this sort of crap all the time and usually tell the parties to go away and sort it out between themselves.
I very much doubt any unions will challenge as massive pressure will be brought to bear to ensure they don’t, despite Psephos’s speculation.
BW
[Hmmm… Colorada just had a one-in-one-thousand year storm.
So they should be right for the next 999 years, AGW permitting.]
Given that there are thousands of places in the world, odds are there will always be somewhere in the world having a one-in-a-thousand year storm.
1771
Psephos said he would do it if he was them. /i do not think he actually said he thinks they would (I am not however ruling out having missed him saying it).
r
If you can get the vision for tonight’s SBS news, get onto it. It has footage taken from inside a fire truck with flood water half up the windscreen somewhere in Colorado.
I suppose it might be old hat for some, but it certainly looked dramatic to this armchair firey.
1772
For that to be the case thousands of places would have to have storms at the same time. Weather is also a connected system.
Their a united bunch these ALP blokes post-election… HONEST!!!!
Gillard says Rudd Rules a disaster that keeps bad leaders in power:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/julia-gillard-slams-labors-leadership-rules/4957886
Emmerson says Rudd wants his job back:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-12/craig-emerson-kevin-rudd-comeback-labor-pm/4953380
Kevin Rudds cabinet reforms leaves Labor “helpless” says Conroy:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-features/kevin-rudd8217s-reforms-leave-labor-8216helpless8217-says-stephen-conroy/story-fnho52jj-1226717236973
The Restoration of Rome: Barbarian Popes and Imperial Pretenders by Peter Heather. Excellent and very timely Diogenes.
The public interest arises because of public funding Diogenese. Thats alreayd law because of Mr Clarke? in SA.
Members have standing to sue. Its more about what they call a “justiciable issue”. IMHO widespread branch stacking tainting the selection of the alternative government leader meets this threshold.
Dio
I had to laugh when I read that denialist apologist in ‘The Australian’ – Graham Loyd – who mentioned ‘…warmer summer temperatures…’ in Australia when what he meant was that we had the hottest summer on record and the hottest winter on record.
Even the most cold-blooded denialist statistician in Colorado must be now be thinking that either doG has got it in for them or else that there might just be something in all that CO2 science stuff.
Edward StJohn@1745
That has already happened.
I recall a case in South Australia.
EsJ
I am sure that messers Diaz and Clarke would be extremely interested in your views on branch stacking. Throw them all in jail, I say.
ABC article RE Gillard is just another leadershit beat up, read the Guardian article, there’s more political ideology in that than you could squeeze out of the Libs in a month of Sundays.
Diogenes@1746
Oh that’s nice!
You obviously follow AFL where there is a second prize for missing.
Well Boerwar the Liberals were smart enough not to open up their internal affairs to the courts. Alas the ALP was not as the Dalek and Gillard correctly point out.
mikehilliard
There are also 2 Guardian articles. One is Julia’s, and one is Lenore Taylor cherry-picking it.
EsJ
In your humble (and dogged) quest for the truth I suppose that you have dobbed Clark to the authorities?
ESJ
I read his “Fall of the Roman Empire” a few years back.
I remember he argued strongly for the barbarians at the gate theory.
lizzie – I didn’t know that I only saw Julia’s one.
ESJ
[The public interest arises because of public funding Diogenese. Thats alreayd law because of Mr Clarke? in SA.]
I’d forgotten about the public funding. I suppose a pissed off union official might have a case.
Diogenes@1769
I suspect any case would argue breach of rules.
Although not covered by any law I can find, a court in South Australia did find this justiciable. Possibly on teh basis of common law.
Has Abbott come out of hiding yet? Or is he still sitting in the corner sucking his thumb mumbling to himself?
“policies policies who knew we need policies? why can’t I govern with 3 word rants?”
So let me get this right, a week after the election, Kevin Rudd is still the Prime Minister and Labor are talking about their leadership?
Politics… Politics never changes…
Brendan O’Connor says Rudd needs to leave parliament:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/simon-crean-pans-destabilising-kevin-rudd-while-craig-emerson-demands-he-quit-politics/story-fn9qr68y-1226715874726
Edward StJohn@1784
The Libs can’t keep courts out of their affairs if a member takes an issue to court and has a reasonable case. It is the court that decides if it will hear it.
So, if the votes are still being counted Monday for some seats will Tones pop over to see the GG? As I understand it Rudd needs to hand in his resignation before then so he should do that tomorrow. I just want it official so I can start putting the boot in.
Labor REALLY REALLY REALLY loves talking about themselves!!!
Leadershit continues!
ST
What do you think of the Clark religious cult influence on the Liberal Party?
Good?
mikehilliard@1795
Rudd has already tendered his resignation and the GG responded by requesting he continue on in caretaker mode until a new PM is sworn in.
Abbott: “But Rupert you promised that if I was elected the world would return to the days of Howard! and that the boats would stop, power bills would go down – all on day one that I was elected. Please, please no more suppositories of knowledge.”
So, Dio, debased any currency lately?