The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
I bet Yarck was solidly against Mrs Mirabella.
Carey
I have to agree with Gillard about the problem of having a PM who doesn’t have the support of Cabinet due to extreme incompetence or ill health or whetever, but Caucus/Cabinet can’t get rid of them.
I suppose its pretty rare though.
s
Very funny but cruel to the Blobfish.
Six years of Prime Minister Abbott…
Is that a long time?
Boerwar
Good try at a unicorn.
Swans.
Psephos@1684
The party members and volunteers are the ones who do all the hard work at elections. That includes those union members who are party members.
When you talk of unions getting a vote, you are talking about a handful of union officials, not the union members.
Allan – A great night out ( 😆 ).
lizzie
Leigh Matthews says the Swans have run out of legs and Carlton will win. He’s a pretty good judge.
I backed the Swans a while back to win the flag and that’s usually the kiss of death.
[How would the union votes be determined? Are you going to poll the one million affiliated union members or let union bosses choose for them, which would be undemocratic as they may not represent the wishes of their members.]
The British Labour Party polls the affiliated unions, which is why the process takes months. Of course that means that lots of Tory voters get a say in who becomes Labour leader, but that’s a necessary price to pay. I agree that the alternative, of having union executives decide, would not be a good look. But I suspect that’s what would be done here.
My Say
Please give my regards to Meguire Bob.
Roxanna@1688
Diddums to them!
If they had in the past encouraged their members to join the ALP then they would have a very large say via those members. But that is not what they want. They want a handful of union officials to wield disproportionate power.
Diog
I’m just parrotting my OH like a good girl should 😉
He wants the Final to be between Swans/Hawthorn and Dockers.
I have no idea!!
1710
Do you think that the Union delegates to ALP conferences should be elected by the membership or chosen by the union members?
Abbott to Front Bench; “Ok guys now we have to turn those 3 word rants into same kind of policy”
“Will we get away with another glossy pamphlet?”
[The party members and volunteers are the ones who do all the hard work at elections.]
Its not about elections it is about policy formulation. Which I why I will not be casting my vote for Albo.
He is a great guy, a fighter of causes, a perfect deputy leader. But he is a waffler when it comes to a big picture.
He was extolling the great things the Rudd/Gillard Govt has achieved, except he was not involved in many. He never tried to get upto speed on the NBN and was sorely missing in the post Conroy fight.
NDIS – Shorten. Better Schools – Shorten.
Sorry Albo.
Diogenes@1693
BINGO!!!
You got it Diogenes, that is exactly what they want, a handful of union officials wielding power in a way that may not what their members think.
Mind you, many of their members will not even vote for or otherwise support Labor.
Conceivably, if the argument is that “unions” should have a say in the leadership of the ALP, then one could weight votes of ALP members who were also financial mebers of affiliated unions so as to lend them a greater say in the running of the party than ordinary members.
Perhaps I’ve missed it, but despite being a financial member of the relevant union in my workplace in every place I’ve every worked (variously the ATMOEA, TWU, MWU, HREA, AMWU, CPSU, PSA, SDA) I’ve never received any notification of how “my” “delegates” were voting in any ballot at any conference of the ALP.
Not once.
My Say
I think you forget it is William’s blog which entitles him to say what he wants to, we if we disagree with what he says do not have to post on here
Fran
Did you ever vote for one of the “delegates”, if so you delegated your vote to the Delegate.
With due reverence to M Leunig
Are we seeing “Tony’s soft sausage, well devilled and served in a bed of mixed wilted roots with scortched Pyne nuts and warm jus Hockey”?
Can Abbott hide for 3 years?
The CPSU is not an affiliated union.
lizzie – My pleasure.
JG, whatever her faults, an awesome fighting individual for things she was passionate about, and not too bad on other stuff.
I bet she has not too many regrets.
So why is Bemused a member of the Labor Party if he is opposed to its basic structure, which has been based on affiliated unions for well over a century? Local branches didn’t even exist until the 1920s.
Just to go back to the earlier points about the Coalition’s silence so far, there may be more of a reason for it than just ‘they’re incompetent’. The way I see it, its actually some careful positioning. A big reason for all the resentment of the last three years is that politics was always in the news, it couldn’t be escaped, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if a lot of people were just tired of it and wanted to not have to think about it all. So the Coalition are going to give the populace a chance to not consider politics, and hopefully rely on that sense of calm/complacency to get extra approval. This of course is why the Rudd white-anting was so insidious, because it guaranteed that peace would not happen with Gillard in power, and gave her no chance of getting a message out without all the leaders**t framing it.
CTar1
Oh yes – I’m looking forward to the next time! 🙂
Actually it will be a cold day in Hell!
[Tim Lyons @Picketer 31m
Corner pub has a Clive Parma challenge – eat a stack of 5 parmas with chips & salad and it’s free pic.twitter.com/XvRM4yENuw]
Which reminds me it’s dinner time. Back later.
If as the member of a Union you elect a delegate who will vote the same way you do.
then as a member of the Labor Party you get a vote
does this mean you have voted twice?
or your vote carries greater force then someone who isn’t
a) a Union member but not a Party member, or
b) a member of the Party but not of a Union,
b
“The rest of her record we can debate.”
Gillard’s record stands, as Rudd’s does. Take your medication and remove your one-eyed glasses.
“I reject your implicit suggestion that Rudd would undermine a leader.”
Rudd has never done anything but undermine, leak and whiteant as the record clearly shows. There is far too much evidence of this behaviour in Rudd right back to his Goss COS days.
But keep deluding yourself. It’s what you do best.
ruawake@1716
The party has policy committees to formulate policy but they seem to be often largely ignored. Revive them!
On policy committees, union representatives, who are party members, are there to represent the industrial interests of their unions, as dictated by the unions leadership, and this may not be good policy.
Conroy was a poor salesman for the NBN and I for one will not miss him. Albo, Husic or whoever will soon get up to speed if properly advised.
Bemused
Please remove the log from your eye.
Psephos@1724
Well if you see a future for a party that looks backwards and is run by organisations that now represent less than 20% of the workforce then good on you, but you have no future.
P
“So why is bemused a member of the Labor Party if he is opposed to its basic structure, which has been based on affiliated unions for well over a century?”
Because he has a small ‘b’?
Has anyone posted this yet? Looks like some very social media savvy people backing Albo:
http://www.alboforleader.com/
[Has anyone posted this yet? Looks like some very social media savvy people backing Albo:
http://www.alboforleader.com/%5D
It is using the ALP Nationbuilder app. It won’t help Albo in the slightest. I hope it recruits new members though.
You guys should be focusing on the legal challenge to the ballot not the ballot. There were a number of rules changes done by Rudd, most importantly the rules themselves are now subject to court supervision. I think there is a fair chance court oversight will have to happen.
By way of example the hundreds of Cambodian branch members in Hotham so they have a vote ? Or the Muslim stacks in blaxland will they get a vote? What happens when some of these enthusiastic branch members come into the spotlight – should be funny to see.
EsJ
Don’t you have a restaurant to run or something like that?
EsJ
So how is Abbott’s version of Konfrontasi going?
All good?
Allan – Fire suit and steam cleaner stuff. ( 😆 )
ru
Don’t you think Albo might be a good initial LOTO who can stick it to Abbott and soften him up a bit with the more polished Shorten to develop policies and take over a bit later?
I am but a humble truth teller boer war , it’s just my misfortune that many of you don’t like to be confronted with awkward facts.
[Don’t you think Albo might be a good initial LOTO who can stick it to Abbott and soften him up a bit with the more polished Shorten to develop policies and take over a bit later?]
I think Albo would make a great Deputy to Shorten and they can both lead a united team until the next election. Why waste either.
Think about every speech you have heard Albo make, he repeats slogans. I won’t vote for him.
[I am but a humble truth teller boer war]
Are those brown shirts comfortable ?
[I am but a humble truth teller boer war , it’s just my misfortune that many of you don’t like to be confronted with awkward facts.]
You’re a piecost. 😛
Court oversight also means a paid up financial member of the alp can take the labor party to court. I just have a sneaking suspicion one may come forward ………….
ru
Fair enough. I’d like to see whoever loses the ballot become deputy. A sort of unity ticket.
You’re a piecost.
1/3d
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?
Your too cruel Diogenes. Have you read anything good lately ?