The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
Thanks Zoomster for the explanation. It’s what I had expected to be the case.
I note further counting today hasn’t eroded McGowan’s lead too much. Back to 830 pr so. But still 6500 to count, mostly portals and these curious prepolls , which will favor Mirabella. It’s starting to look awfully tight to me again. The prepolls have got me worried! Not really sure why they are favoring Mirabella so strongly compared with my analysis of the 2010 position.
I’m sure Team McGowan has appreciated any post election support she’s been getting from the Labor scrutineering present.
[BTW, is 38cm a lot of rain to get in a day or so?]
no.
The outcome of the ballot to unseat Latham has all the qualities of a Greek Tragedy.
JG had the numbers but decided to be second and vote for Kev-07.
Half a decade later …
[1517
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 2:54 pm | PERMALINK
Roxanna
Aren’t you a doctor? These are classic symptoms of bereavement.
Yes, they are the symptom of someone who been told they or one of their loved ones has a fatal illness.]
Don’t I know it. My mother died a couple of months ago. 🙁
I think losing the leadership like that would easily have the same effect.
Took a marvellous photo today. It happens. It was a Silvereye foraging amongst flowering wattle. Ripper.
*happying*
[Can Rudd undermine a leader elected by members, if the answer is no, then the Rudd thing is over.]
Can Gillard backstab a first term PM under the new rules, if not then the party is safe from hers and her backers type of party wrecking stupidity.
T.P
You do need to get over your Gillard-lurrve sooner or later – if only for your own health.
Did you know that extreme hatred reduces your life expectancy?
Outsider, by my very rough calculations, I’d still favour McGowan for Indi. Even though some of the votes counted have been favourable for Mirabella, in my view they haven’t been quite favourable enough for her to win, although favourable enough to get her very close.
[New coalition government not even prepared to hit the ground reviewing.]
They have just hit the ground.
Psephos I asked earlier if you could shed any light on what these outstanding prepolls in Indi actually are? I fear they mean Sophie still has a pulse. The question was what is the difference between these prepolls, as opposed to the votes cast at the PPVCs?bi might not have searched the aec website very well but couldn’t find any explanation there. I wondered if they might be disproportionately votes from military personnel given the defence presence in Indi, Wodonga etc
[Did you know that extreme hatred reduces your life expectancy?]
I don’t think TP is actually a person – just some sort of political spambot in the basement at Menzies House.
[Psephos I asked earlier if you could shed any light on what these outstanding prepolls in Indi actually are? I fear they mean Sophie still has a pulse. The question was what is the difference between these prepolls, as opposed to the votes cast at the PPVCs?bi might not have searched the aec website very well but couldn’t find any explanation there. I wondered if they might be disproportionately votes from military personnel given the defence presence in Indi, Wodonga etc]
You’ll need to ask Zoomster, she’s on the spot.
Thomas Paine
[lizzie
I’m saying Gillard’s reaction confirms how desperate she was to stay in power.
And how impatient she was to take the job from Rudd, regardless so it seems. No angel in the long term plotting and planning to knife Rudd it seems. And oh what a horrible mess they made.]
Diogenes said that first sentance, not me, and I disagree with your constant smearing.
My analysis this morning was she would need around 60% of the prepolls to get over the line, or very close. She’s been getting 57 so far. Makes it perilously close but maybe 200 short if that trend holds.
Let’s see 38 time 10 = 380 divided by around 25 = 15 inches in a day.
No wonder people stall their fire trucks in floods.
Thank you Psephos. It appears there are two different kinds of prepolls. Something I was never aware of before the past couple of days!
[1561
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 3:54 pm | PERMALINK
lizzie
I’m saying Gillard’s reaction confirms how desperate she was to stay in power.]
Or how gutted she felt at what she probably saw as a betrayal.
c
‘They have just hit the ground.’
*laughs*
The meaning of LOTO life was the 10 second sound bite on the Teev every night and the MSM journos, herded by Murdoch, could sort out the print by themselves.
Psephos
That would explain the complete and utter irrationality.
[There is a Newspoll out and about.]
Could just be a state one. There is probably one due.
Outsider @ 1662 and Psephos @ 1662:
There are now two types of prepoll votes: those cast within the division, where the process is like ordinary voting, the ballot paper goes straight into a ballot box, and is counted on election night or shortly thereafter; and those cast in another division or overseas, which are declaration votes which go in an envelope and are returned to the correct division for preliminary scrutiny (to check that the voter is enrolled) and then counting. The ones still being counted are those in the second category.
Boerwar
The amount of rain is not that important, it is the drainage infrastructure to move it that is.
Boerwar:
All these boats and not a peep out of Morrison! It’s much easier to whinge and carp than it is to come up with actual workable solutions.
[If Albanese wins the ballot by a wide margin, as many expect, how can Caucus overrule the branch membership? It will put the pro-Shorten camp, who are probably the majority of Caucus, in an impossible position.]
I’m sure polls will tell us the rough outcome even if Caucus don’t know the exact numbers.
[ And what about the other half of the membership, the affiliated unions, who have been cut right out of the process? ]
Aren’t lots of those union members also members of the Labor Party?
CTar1
[The outcome of the ballot to unseat Latham has all the qualities of a Greek Tragedy.
JG had the numbers but decided to be second and vote for Kev-07.
Half a decade later …]
Thank you for reminding people who think JG never supported Rudd. That is one of the awful ironies.
confessions
Someone in Immigration has probably told Morrison that if he keeps trashing the Indonesians they will triple the boats.
ruawake@1625
I can equally invent a set of numbers to give the opposite result.
At his worst, Rudd had about 1/3 of Caucus.
People casting “ordinary” prepolls will probably have been given a how to vote card for Indi, at least by the main candidates. It’s much more doubtful whether that would have been the case for an Indi voter who might, for example, have been voting “declaration” prepoll at a prepoll voting centre in Broome or the Australian Embassy in Indonesia.
Thank you pedant. The large number of the “other” prepolls in Indi I suspect relates to the number of military who would be enrolled in Indi and stationed elsewehere or on service overseas, which would account for the higher % that Mirabella is getting from these than would otherwise be expected. At least that’s what I’m assuming.
BOERWAR
RUDE AND SARCASTIC AS EVER
GROW UP U ARE THE ONE THAT DIDNT VOTE
SO U HAVE noOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOthing SAY OVER ANY TIHING
HAVE U PAID THE FINE OR ARE DOING THE TIME
its a crime not to vote i ask when i was pre polling
DO U DAMPEN OTHER PEOPLE SPIRTIS and mock maqure bob
whom i meet to have a coffee but not u
troll that u are look picked u year ago if u are labor
i will eat bob kater s hat
rua
I imagine that the ‘drainage infrastructure’ in Colorada is rather typical of mountainous, rocky and semi-desert environments.
This has probably been made worse by the large areas of Colorada that have been either been smashed by drought or burned bare of vegetation, the propensity of Coloradans to settle near normally dry stream beds and their habit of voting down sensible gun laws.
The good thing about this is that Colorada is choc-a-bloc with denialists so they will think that all this is completely normal or caused by cosmic rays.
my say
I did so vote.
sprocket_@1639
Or Sam Dastyari? 😀
[Aren’t lots of those union members also members of the Labor Party?]
No, not many. The branch members are about 40,000 I think. The affiliated unions have a million members. Unionists have never needed to join branches, because they belong to affiliated unions. That’s the whole point of being a labour party. The ALP is not a branch membership based party, it’s a labour movement party! Now suddenly, by virtue of Rudd’s personal decree, and without a National Conference debate, the unions have been in effect disaffiliated.
Oh, and I did say some positive things about Bob M while Bob M was still posting.
I think I may well have been the only poster who did so.
and peeps that blog here when the newspoll thing is at the top
should recite the word l o y a l t y
over and over
Psephos
I assume that the unions will take their Party back from Rudd sometime within the next thee years.
He certainly is the gift who keeps giving to the Liberals.
And what about the other half of the membership, the affiliated unions, who have been cut right out of the process? The Labor Party does not belong to the branch members, it belongs to the labour movement.
_____________________________
And the said unions are bloody angry about it. What a slap in the face fort them.
lizzie
Ah. Greek Tragedy? That would be Mrs Mirabella.
I still see one or two conservative hacks are coming out with the piffle that Abbott is not really PM yet and thereby has no responsibility for what has transpired in the last week.
It might be okay to try to get away with that rubbish here, but it has not fooled the likes of Shane Wright Economics writer for the West this morning who, right to the point said:
“Tony Abbott has not kept one of his Week 1 promises.”
He then listed the usual ones, adding one I did not know about, something abut cutting funds to some climate outfit, which according to Wright he could not do anyway.
And to all those who claim that Abbott is in some kind of policy free, no responsibility zone, then why was Bracks cut off at the knees? Julie Bishop, under orders from her boss, obviously had a pretty good awareness of what she could now do. No niceties there.
If the conservatives can actually make this kind of decision they have to cop the “Stop the Boats”, “Tow the Boats”, “Visit Indonesia in the first week”, “Bring back parliament”, due to crises in the budget and with boats as promises they have broken so far, and if PMJG can be called a liar then sure as can be so can Abbott in just a week.
In case the conservatives here don’t get it, their crap started this time last Saturday night when Rudd conceded.
The next few months will be really enjoyable. But after July 1, next year, if the Senate pans out anywhere near predictions, Abbott will really see what “minority government” means.
The beauty is he will not have the balls to go to a DD as he will bring the wrath of the electorate down on him for making Oz go through it all again.
What a shame (not) that even a majority of 20 seats or so is next to useless until you get the Senate with you.
bemused
I wish, I wish, you’d face the truth about your hero.
[Rudd made a career of backstabbing members of his own party. First it was then-Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Laurie Brereton, whom Rudd undermined by leaking internal Labor business to the Liberals. Then-Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said it was a blatant attempt to get Brereton’s job.
. . .
Mr Rudd – or his ‘sympathisers’ in Caucus – mounted orchestrated leaking campaigns against leaders Kim Beazley and Simon Crean. Rudd and his forces are widely regarded as being behind destabilising leaks against Julia Gillard.]
Even if you admitted half the truth, it would be a relief.
tricot
I agree. Abbott should just pick up the phone and tell SBY…
Oh… wait.
Psephos
How would the union votes be determined? Are you going to poll the one million affiliated union members or let union bosses choose for them, which would be undemocratic as they may not represent the wishes of their members.
Boerwar @ 1676: Some years ago I discussed Ms Gillard’s proposed East Timor solution with a very smart Timorese Foreign Ministry official, whose comment was simply: “it was never going to happen: don’t they realise that we have elections coming up too?”. Ditto for Indonesia: I suspect that SBY and Minister Natalagawa are as sympathetic a set of interlocutors as we will have for the foreseeable future, and that it’s only going to get worse for our government from here on. And as 1999 proved, Australia is nowhere near as important to Indonesia as Australians like to think.
lizzie
Who will win tonight Blues or Swannies?
I certainly think the election process should be tinkered with to, among other things, involve the union movement. I just don’t want to throw away the baby with the bath water if the current change is flawed.
And I certainly disagree with looking down on the membership as an uninformed rabble who should stay out of it.
pedant @ 1694
Good post, IMHO.
Sooner or later Australia will have to give up on the phantasy that we can outsource asylum seekers.
Outsider @ 1679: That could be a factor, but my guess would be that a lot of those voters may have been out of Indi for some time, and therefore less exposed to the local factors which have led to the decline in Mrs Mirabella’s popularity – and of course, also less directly exposed to Ms McGowan’s campaign surge.
I am rather inclined to think that if the membership votes for the leader than we get a leader who will be unrepresentative of Australians more broadly and unelectable.
This is the Psephos Paradox.
Hmmm… Separated at birth?
https://twitter.com/xx_Alexandra/status/378785464909451264/photo/1