The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
i always took the ind, at their word not for one minute
did i think they where joking
if the boot was on the other foot would for example, allow ind. gove to come here look for leaky boats and take them away
Now that sounded like a joke
and made us all look stupid
which of course little over half are for electing this lot
they will pay for it , may be 6/12 pay they will
if not respect with their wallet or both
and the respect for others like the no respect for carers who work in nursing homes and child care how dare he reduce their wages
its an insult to the children who have families in nursing home and to parents with children in crèche and to say it not necessary to have teacher overseeing a child care centre is
outdated stupid, crèche now are the step before school
not a babysitting club/service
did his wife give him that advice
For many it would just be a feeling that it is all over so whats the point of gloating etc. The last 6 years of feeding the 24/7 news cycle, policy on the run, back flip’s, minority govt, endless leadership instability and negative opposition has all come to an end. Feel rightly or wrongly the adults are back in charge and will be for the next 6 years regardless.
People who found their voice after previously showing no interest in politics are now leaving the blogs and news sites and are finding better things to do and talk about.
For me personally- Time to get off my arse after spending so much time over the last 12 months in front of the computer (Every friggin day – Age, Abc, Crikey, Australian) and do something more active – like hitting the golf course and finally trying to get fit.
Davidwh…
“First Labor is still arguing over leadership”
No they’re not. They are going through an appropriate democratic process of selecting a new leader …nothing more, nothing less…
Someone (Outsider) asked earlier if the ALP ran dead in Indi to give McGowan a boost.
Absolutely not. However, Central HQ did decide that it was worth putting a bit of effort in to help unseat Mirabella and thus did what McGowan’s camp virtuously refused to do and highlight her record.
So when Mirabella claimed, for example, that she had been involved in delivering certain projects for the community, the relevant ALP Ministers went on the record to say that she had never contacted them.
re polls i would no expect any soon from newsld
suppose ess, will still send out their little email every week
but will bowe do if no polls turn up
Is there a Newspoll due this week?
What is the longest an elected, but yet to be sworn in Prime Minister has gone without holding a press conference?
At 7 days and counting, Tony Abbott must be the winner.
Basically, Tony Abbott’s whole asylum seeker policy was just a thought bubble. Get the punters in and sort out the details later. He knew he’d be able to get away with it.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 4:48 pm | PERMALINK
Is there a Newspoll due this week?]
yes
MM @ 1592
I’m a bit ambivalent about both Shorten and Albanese.
I give due credit to Shorten for carrying things through once he latches on to an idea.
Albanese is a very good tactician in the House and that’s crucial to get the legislation through.
Neither seem to me to be a ’rounded’ politician.
Either way, I guess, who ever wins is more likely than not to be not be leader in 3 years time.
Steve777@1608
Basically you can say that about every single coalition policy. Why are they not doing anything? They have no idea what to do.
I suppose they’ll do preferred PM for both Abbott/Albanese and Abbott/Shorten. Will be interesting to see whether either of them can ‘beat’ Nelson’s lows.
I assume a pollster will poll people and declare Shrtbo is the peoples favourite. It means nothing.
But it will generate a few headlines, the ABC will run with it and it will be read at Macca’s over McUffin and mud coffee.
[Either way, I guess, who ever wins is more likely than not to be not be leader in 3 years time.]
If I had to take a punt, I would say that we’ll be in opposition for two terms and that Jason Clare will be the next Labor PM, in 2019.
taylormade
Posted Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 4:46 pm | Permalink
For many it would just be a feeling that it is all over so whats the point of gloating etc. The last 6 years of feeding the 24/7 news cycle, policy on the run, back flip’s, minority govt, endless leadership instability and
========================================================================
i is that what you hope or think mate
twitter is alive with people and so is face book 4 new face book sites have just gone up
i want tell u the name of them because u will troll them.
500 th.there about more votes for the alp
around the same level that voted for the nationals
seats lost with less than one thousand votes in some case
have no idea what bowes say don’t care don’t read him
but on twitter
some experts say 1.7..8 swing
=======================================
the new face book sites that have sprung up have thousands of new posts and new people
so if you think people are leaving and not caring about this
slogan ized lot who have even been sworn in and abbott is making rules as he goes think again,
some may be having rest mate
but they are going to fight lot with good policies and point out lies and undperfomance every day
lists of boats coming is one site that s up
and many other small one
so don’t come here making up propaganda
Diogenes@1532
If a ballot of the membership been held at almost any time, Rudd would have won easily.
My brother told me that ‘Lonergon’ (sp) tried a robopoll at my place in Canberra on Friday.
Prof Damien Kingsbury in Crikey:
‘To suggest that Australia’s relationship with Indonesia has been marked by periods of instability would be less accurate to say the otherwise unstable relationship has been marked by brief periods of stability. After a few years of good relations, it again appears that Australia is headed into difficulties with its near neighbour.
Always highly sensitive around issues of sovereignty, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa has rejected the newly elected Abbott government’s policy of paying villagers for information about people smugglers. He has also rejected the Coalition’s otherwise poorly conceived policy of buying potential people-smuggler boats.
Indonesia had already strongly signalled its opposition to the Coalition government’s policy of “turning back the boats” (“where safe to do so”). Its view is that, once boats are in international waters, they are not Indonesia’s responsibility, nor does it have the capacity to assist boats that might get into difficulties.
These new difficulties in the relationship result directly from a significant change in Australia’s foreign policy being announced as an election promise without first having been negotiated with the principle affected party. As the incoming Coalition government is quickly learning, there is a big difference between populist pre-election promises and post-election international realism.
Similarly, comments by senior Nationals member Barnaby Joyce that he will oppose the sale of Australian agricultural land to Indonesia to raise cattle for the Indonesian market will cause long-lasting offence in Indonesia. Indonesians will rightly point out that Australia has significant investment in mining and other industries in Indonesia, but hypocritically does not wish that investment right to be reciprocal.
Australia has enjoyed several years of generally untroubled relations with Indonesia. The relationship is officially described, on both sides, as the best it has ever been. That is probably correct.
However, a very large part of that positive relationship has been a result of the benign and pro-Western leadership of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. This has been assisted by the previous two governments’ more nuanced diplomacy towards Indonesia.’
I am not sure if he is counting Rudd/Gillard/Rudd as one government.
This echoes several posts I made recently. Abbott/Bishop/Joyce have done some serious damage to the national interest by needlessly, carelessly and stupidly treating Indonesia badly.
It is time for the Liberal and National kids to grow up and to start treating Indonesia properly.
be in opposition for two terms and that Jason Clare will be the next Labor PM, in 2019. PHES
===========================================
WILL CHANGE THAT MATE TO 2016
u are not know here for your positive thoughts
There’s positivity and then there’s detachment from reality.
it appears Q&A might be about ready to jump the shark – trawling the depths for the next episode.
[Panellists
Monday, 16 September
Clive Palmer – Leader of the Palmer United Party
Mark Latham – Former Federal Opposition Leader
Larissa Waters – Queensland Greens Senator
David Williamson – Playwright
Rebecca Huntley – Social researcher and writer
Nick Xenophon – South Australia Independent Senator]
[Kate Ellis @KateEllisMP 2h
Oooooh man, just got rang by Newspoll for first time in my life. They wanted to poll a female aged 18-34. I’m 35… Rejected. Was so close!]
There is a Newspoll out and about.
Psephos
Two terms? *thinks* Must hang on.
I am slowly moving towards that part of the seven ages of man where you realize that you might actually die while x or y is in the saddle.
It happened to my father recently. He had rather hoped he would still be alive when Abbott became PM, not that he had much time for Abbott, but he loathed Gillard.
this lot will be hated by the end of the year or 18 months
only 3 percent have to dislike them remember not the whole coutnry
their media mates may not hate them but the public will
but their media mates will not be paying the high int, rates or be our of work
inte rises ( the econ, that are well known on the int,have already said they up up and inflation also
so unemployment up i see Holden are now shedding jobs
and work choices back and boat s coming
2016 if there is DD could be earlier
[If a ballot of the membership been held at almost any time, Rudd would have won easily.]
Not really answering the question, if Caucus is 100% behind a candidate the membership being 95% in favour of the other candidate, who wins? Not the view of the membership.
confessions
You were a bit slow…
I am quite happy to be an 18 year old femme if that is what they are looking for.
Boerwar:
I would’ve lied as well.
confessions
‘lied’?
I think of it as guided truth.
[Not really answering the question, if Caucus is 100% behind a candidate the membership being 95% in favour of the other candidate, who wins? Not the view of the membership.]
That’s the central problem with this hideous fucking mess Rudd has inflicted on us from beyond the political grave. If Albanese wins the ballot by a wide margin, as many expect, how can Caucus overrule the branch membership? It will put the pro-Shorten camp, who are probably the majority of Caucus, in an impossible position. And what about the other half of the membership, the affiliated unions, who have been cut right out of the process? The Labor Party does not belong to the branch members, it belongs to the labour movement.
High praise for Rudd from the US
http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rudd-top-strategic-thinker-exus-official-20130914-2trbt.html
[that Jason Clare will be the next Labor PM]
I think so too. I’m not quite so pessimistic about the year but you’re likely right.
McEwen still looking very close.
well it bowes blog and is expected to put up poll s
but doesn’t mean i or we have to read them and discuss
well as i said i will never blog under a HEADING that HAS anything to do with Murdoch
and ON TWITTER taking vows to not buy Murdoch and her u are labor people blogging with the heading
THINK
[McEwen still looking very close.]
Yes, but we would need to see evidence that Mitchell is catching up, which I don’t think we are.
Psephos, I had read that Caucus will vote before knowing the outcome of the membership ballot? It was on some newspaper website so I suppose the reliability of that information is questionable.
I agree that the unions should have a portion of the vote. Perhaps 50% caucus, 25% branch members, 25% unions.
Sprocket
‘Panellists
Monday, 16 September
Clive Palmer – Leader of the Palmer United Party
Mark Latham – Former Federal Opposition Leader
Larissa Waters – Queensland Greens Senator
David Williamson – Playwright
Rebecca Huntley – Social researcher and writer
Nick Xenophon – South Australia Independent Senator’
This panel is far from perfect, IMHO.
I would have replaced Waters with Mirabella, Williamson with Joyce and Huntley with Katter.
[Ms Gillard admitted labelling the emissions trading scheme as a “carbon tax” hurt her politically,]
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gillard-breaks-silence-on-rudds-resurrection-20130914-2tr1s.html#ixzz2eqfyTqYR
Now how many times did we hear this spun the other way on PB…
the ”Trolls” right again!
[lizzie
I’m saying Gillard’s reaction confirms how desperate she was to stay in power.]
And how impatient she was to take the job from Rudd, regardless so it seems. No angel in the long term plotting and planning to knife Rudd it seems. And oh what a horrible mess they made.
[Black Jack @JohnMcEwenMP now
The defeat of @MikeKellyMP in Eden-Monaro is a dark day for the moustache lobby in Canberra. Vale your hirsute visage, sir. #AusPol]
maybe Paul Howes can stand aside for Mike Kelly is a possible upcoming NSW Senate vacancy? Would be an elegant solution after Steve Whan did the same in NSW Legislative Council.
Senator Mike Kelly would add some weight to Red Chamber.
It was a system passed by caucus, as I recall.
UK and NZ seem to manage it, with very similar political systems.
For those who have mentioned the “quiet” time I have noted this for the past three of four days.
There is absolutely no cheering the in the streets for Abbott and no booing of Labor.
I thought that this was just in WA, but apparently not so.
The cynical in me might suggest this is the Fraser approach after ’75 and Toolman on ABC radio earlier this week, closet admirer of Abbott, even spouted that Abbott was “deliberately calming things down” letting sport dominate the papers blah, blah.
This is a load of rubbish of course and what is really biting is that Abbott has it all to prove – if he can.
And what is more, despite his promise not to over promise, he has already done so.
I see the miners are having a bit each way wtte “We don’t really care who is in office, but we just want ‘certainty’ and someone in the office” (whatever that means.
Having climbed into bed with the conservatives for a long time now, they have to rethink who they might have to go to if Abbott does not dance to their jig.
Their constant bitching will cut no ice now, as will that from the WA Premier.
As one stock market dealer said on Friday, as the market went down, “Business has got the change of government it wanted and has already factored this in.”
In other words, nobody to blame now – oh, apart from every overseas business downturn which did not exist when Labor was in office.
[Psephos, I had read that Caucus will vote before knowing the outcome of the membership ballot? It was on some newspaper website so I suppose the reliability of that information is questionable.]
I’m sure they will know. It will become apparent fairly soon what the likely outcome will be.
rummel
I saw a Colorado fire truck battling through flood waters on the Teev.
Thought of you briefly but discarded the thought when the skilled firey driver managed to steer his vehicle safely through the torrent.
BTW, is 38cm a lot of rain to get in a day or so?
I don’t think there’s a lot of postals left to count in McEwen, the remaining absents should be good for Mitchell, so it’s a question of just how bad the pre-polls are. I’d still rather be in Petrovich’s shoes at this stage.
I imagine that, having abjured surprises and excuses, Abbott will not have a whole lot to say for the next three years.
i am not a bit pessimistic
boewar
i have already had people confessing they voted lib
and so upset about the chil care
one stupid woman said when i told her
NO tony would not do that, i laughed and said he already has]
another stupid woman thought the school bonus stayed
said why wasn’t we told
another story on twitter lady comes out of poll booth
friend say did u vote lib
yes the friend says u fool , he is cutting chldcare places
woman says out loud , o my goodness can i go back and change the vote
TRUE STORIES
in a store mentioned the cutting of aid to research
my good ness no one told me that
read the story re Julia about the elderly lady in the supermarket
and its only a week
my say
Do you and Bob M do telepathy or anything like that?
New coalition government not even prepared to hit the ground reviewing.
Lefty e, NZ and the UK give the unions a say in the leadership too. I think it’s 40/40/20 in NZ isn’t it?
Regarding the earlier discussion about the supposed lack of “gloating” from Liberals, I had the misfortune to be invited to dinner shortly after the election with four of my partner’s friends – two husband/wife couples.
Had it not been for the fact that I was a guest in one of their (many) houses and taking advantage of the hospitality, I would have upended the table at some of the nauseating drivel that formed most of the conversation.
When I mentioned I couldn’t stand Tony Abbott I was informed that, of course, he had been badly misrepresented and misquoted in the media and if we held the same discussion in two year’s time, I would have a different opinion. (I doubt it!)
Apparently he has done all this charity work, visited remote aboriginal communities to see how they lived – the man is a veritable Saint. I never knew and now wonder why I hadn’t voted for the liberal candidate after all they have done for us!
I must post off a letter to Pope Francis as he is, I imagine, unaware, although Cardinal Pell may already have passed on the info.
There was not one good word for Rudd or Gillard, just how much “Beazley black hole” sort of debt those idiots had got this country into. No positive feedback at all, nothing, nada, zilch.
Of course Hawke and Keating were worse, and Whitlam almost brought on apoplexy, it taking the miracle of Howard and Costello’s brilliant performances to save the nation. About the only positive comment was that they admired Hazel Hawke, at least.
I was choking on my food and, annoyingly as it often happens, only thought of several cutting remarks after I had left. My partner, being a Labor voter from way back and, of course, knowing his friends better than I did, remained silent.
That’s one house I won’t be back to. I don’t mind a difference of opinion and, hopefully, informed argument. Also each person is entitled to vote for whomsoever they wish, but the sheer crap that was spouted and the closed ears mentality to anything I said was straight out of the Murdoch Journal of Labor Hatespeak.