I’m running the above headline essentially because I have no new poll to trumpet for the following assortment of bits-and-pieces. The latest addition is yesterday’s large-sample ReachTEL poll, which was a relatively good result for Labor taking into account the past lean to the Coalition in this series. Its inclusion caused a 0.6% shift in Labor’s favour without affecting the seat projection, mostly because the improvement was concentrated in Victoria where there are few marginal seats. This isn’t the first time recently that the addition of a ReachTEL result has caused BludgerTrack to move in Labor’s favour, which raises the possibility that the series is not as pro-Coalition as it used to be. If so, the addition of the result with out-of-date bias adjustments attached might be causing the present BludgerTrack numbers to flatter Labor slightly. There has apparently been, for the second evening running, a poll conducted overnight by ReachTEL which will have been unveiled on Seven Sunrise by the time most of you are reading this.
(UPDATE: A less good result today for Labor, and another good one for the Palmer United Party. Labor’s primary vote is down to 32.7% and the Coalition’s up to 43.6%, with the Greens on 10.0% and Palmer on 6.1%. Two-party preferred is 53-47 to the Coalition. ReachTEL also has a very ugly result for Labor from the Tasmanian seat of Bass, courtesy of the Launceston Examiner, with Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic on 51.8% and Labor member Geoff Lyons on 26.6%.)
Now to those bits and pieces. First, I address what looks to be one of the election’s most significant imponderables: the share of the vote that will go to micro-parties in the Senate. Much hinges on the answer, given the tightness of the preference arrangements between micro-parties and the extremely limited value of polling as a guide to the smaller details of Senate voting patterns. Tim Colebatch of Fairfax has run reports over the past week based based on what Antony Green’s Senate election calcalators come up with when seemingly plausible vote share scenarios are plugged into them, which have been partly inspired by simulations conducted by Poll Bludger commenter Truth Seeker (who details them on his own blog).
One particularly headline-grabbing observation was that Pauline Hanson might succeed in her bid for a New South Wales Senate seat at the expense of Arthur Sinodinos, who has the number three position on the Coalition ticket in New South Wales. Since Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all have Hanson last on their preference order, this can only happen if she and the various parties feeding her preferences collectively amount to more than a quota (14.3%). Colebatch argues that this is highly plausible: “In 2010, 29 micro-parties won 14 per cent of the vote between them. This time there will be 41 of them, and disillusioned Labor supporters could swell their collective vote to 20 per cent – easily enough for a Senate quota.”
This appears to assume that collective vote share of micro-parties will continue to expand as more of them enter the field. Evidence from the last three elections, which provide a common footing in that the Democrats and One Nation had faded from minor to micro-party status, provides some support for this. Excluding the unusual circumstance of South Australia in 2007, when Nick Xenophon polled a full quota in his own right, there are 17 state-level observations for modelling the relationship between the number of Senate groups and the vote share for micro-parties (which I take to mean everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens). The model I have derived is 0.243+(0.283*A)+(0.681*B), where A is the number of Senate groups and B is the “others” vote in the House of Representatives from the state in question. This has an R-squared of 0.517 and a p-value of 0.006, which is to say that the model explains 51.7% of the variation in these 17 results and has a 99.4% chance of being better than no model at all.
With unprecedented numbers of Senate groups at this election ranging from 23 in Tasmania to 44 in New South Wales, this suggests “others” votes ranging from 12.9% to 20.5% (going off the BludgerTrack projections for the lower house “others” vote), which is well in line with Colebatch’s expectations. However, there’s a considerable theoretical problem with the model in that it presumes the relationship to be perfectly linear. If this were so, the major party vote would disappear altogether if only enough micro-parties took the field. In reality, the rate of increase has to taper off, and the meagre sample of observations available offers no insight as to point at which it does so. My own guess though is that it kicks in fairly sharply before we reach the stage where we can start talking of an aggregate micro-party vote approaching 20%.
To offer some historic guidance as to the sorts of numbers you should be punching into the Senate calcalators, the table below displays the vote for micro-parties of various kinds in each state. “Religious” includes the Democratic Labour Party, although they no doubt occupy something of a grey area. The “right” category is exclusive of the “religious” one. “Left” is defined broadly to incorporate the Democrats and all environmentalist concerns, even ostensibly conservative ones. There were also parties and independents that were deemed not to fall into any of these categories, so the “total” column is not simply an aggregate of the other three.
2010 Relig. Right Left Total NSW 3.63 5.55 3.37 13.82 Victoria 5.35 3.83 3.28 13.2 Queensland 4.31 7.59 3.61 16.43 WA 3.71 2.66 2.81 9.92 SA 5 2.65 2.55 11.11 Tasmania 1.69 2.24 0.66 5.36 TOTAL 4.16 4.81 3.18 13.13 2007 NSW 3.83 3.35 2.44 10.17 Victoria 3.77 1.24 3.16 8.72 Queensland 2.76 6.73 3.04 13.08 WA 3.57 1.1 1.84 7.04 SA 3.97 1.68 1.68 22.25 Tasmania 2.67 0.19 0.78 4.38 TOTAL 3.48 2.97 2.57 10.71 2004 NSW 3.17 3.73 3.88 12.17 Victoria 4.16 1.55 4.18 10.98 Queensland 3.37 9.34 4.09 18.05 WA 2.73 2.82 3.05 9.22 SA 3.98 1.53 3.95 10.02 Tasmania 3.03 0.16 0.82 7.04 TOTAL 3.42 2.93 3.84 12.22
Now to some scattered bits of news for around the traps that I have recently used to supplement the seat-by-seat election guide:
Indi (Liberal 9.0%):Liberals have been telling journalists of serious concerns for Sophie Mirabella’s hold on Indi, where she faces a well-organised challenge from independent Cathy McGowan. The Guardian reports on widespread opinion polling being conducted in the electorate; the Weekly Times reports that Labor are campaigning strongly to boost McGowan; and The Australian reports some in the Liberal Party have been urging Tony Abbott to visit the electorate. The contest is another source of friction between the coalition parties, with former state Nationals MP Ken Jasper among those who are throwing their weight behind McGowan.
Melbourne (Greens 6.0% versus Labor): The Greens have been spruiking a poll of 400 respondents conducted for them by Galaxy showing Adam Bandt’s primary vote up 4% since the 2010 election, with “as many as four in 10” Liberal voters in the seat planning to ignore the direction of their party’s how-to-vote card that voters should favour Labor ahead of the Greens in their preference allocation. This is actually in line with the 35% rate of leakage in inner Melbourne when the Liberals likewise directed preferences against the Greens at the 2010 state election, which nonetheless wasn’t high enough to win them any of the seats they were anticipating. But taken together with the purported primary vote swing, it suggests a very close result.
McMahon (Labor 7.8%): The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat, Liverpool area police superintendent Ray King, has been defended by a series of police figures and corruption investigators after Labor claimed he had a “close friend” in Roger Rogerson, the notorious detective who was imprisoned in 1990 for perverting the course of justice. The claim has been denied by Rogerson as well as King, with retired assistant commissioner Geoff Schuberg complaining of a “grubby, baseless smear campaign”.
Forde (Liberal National 1.6%):The Australian reports that Forde MP Bert van Manen, who is fighting off a challenge from Peter Beattie, was the half-owner and recently resigned director of a financial planning firm which owed creditors more than $1.5 million when it collapsed last year. The report says administrators KPMG had told creditors of “unreasonable director-related transactions” behind the collapse. A Liberal spokesperson was quoted saying van Manen had personally settled with the main credtior, Westpac, but no comment was offered on $325,000 owed to three further creditors.
Greenway (Labor 0.9%): The Sydney Morning Herald observes a “systemic” silence among Liberal candidates in Sydney, “with multiple examples emerging of candidates pulling out of events or interviews”. The low profile assumed by Greenway MP Jaymes Diaz has been particularly widely noted, after he failed to show for a candidates forum in Blacktown last week.
Herbert (Liberal National 2.2%) and Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%): Sid Maher of The Australian identifies marginal seats on the central Queensland coast as the main targets for the Coalition’s promised curtailing of marine protected areas, a pitch at commercial and recreational fishers. A similar promise before the 2010 election was “credited with delivering the seat of Dawson”, by persons unidentified.
Mod Lib you could make a prediction then scale it way down
Imagine Warrior Dave maintaining the rage.
Yeah sure.
Rage?
That’d be some sort of passion? Emotion?
Warrior Dave; click, whirrr, click, kotok,click, whirrr, click,kotok, click….
Time to phone your tory masters ‘Warrior’
Pretty stupid code name by the way…..
Quick – Hide the boats!!
In fact in future I propose we refer to Mod Lib as Ted.
Seriously though, how the heck did the LNP BALLS THEIR INTERNET POLICY UP SO BAD?
Is this the sort of ‘stable’ policy making we can expect?
Who thinks Turnbull will be Minister for Veterans’ Affairs by the end of next week?
Ive been called worse, here.
Much, much worse!
Abbott might make him Foreign Minister to keep him out of the country so that he can’t make mischief in the party room! :devil:
I think ML and I agree on much more than we disagree on. I think we both want the kind of Liberal a small l like Turnbull could bring if he was given the power and flexibility to deliver it.
@Psephos/1954
And do the whole Rudd scenario?
Only if they are in a minority gov 😛
[does anyone have a prediction for how many deaths will result from a 4.5 Billion dollar cut in foreign aid?]
Sadly, the prediction for how many will care is easier. A lot of our “aid” is … up against the wall or put into improper pockets or even hostile pockets. There should probably be an enquiry into exactly what happens to our billions, colour charts and percentages and money trails included, and it’ll give the public a chance to think about both sides of the story.
1955/1957 – I would have been seriously… SERIOUSLY tempted to vote Liberal for the first time in a long time if Turnbull was there.
At the very least davidwh, I demand more than we are currently getting.
Voting for either party is an endorsement of the appalling state of current politics and I think the most responsible thing to do is send a very loud message of 1 million Australian voters voting informal at this election- I reckon that number will be reached for the first time in our history.
BRING IT ON! :devil:
Psephos,
Apparently, the eruption of Krakatoa was heard in London.
I reckon the moon would hear if Turnbull copped that sort of shafting.
[quote]The report which outlined the twitter patterns since the election was called… it was there[/quote]
Where was this posted? I’ve just been back over the last few pages and didn’t see anything *shrugs*
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
Imagine Warrior Dave maintaining the rage. ]
Its a few more than me and it goes back a fair way.
You are just total scum and other agree –
…
[Fran Barlow
Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 at 11:49 am | Permalink
Rosemour:
Speaking as someone who has never pretended to be an ALP sympathiser, I always just assumed you were a Liberal concern troll. Your posts have a structure exactly fitting the concern troll specification. Assert you’re a loyal supporter of the group whose concern moves speaking inconvenient truths, which just happen to coincide with the exact claims of the group’s main rivals.
Loyal members of the group don’t gratuitously repeat the opposition memes. They first attempt to deconstruct it — to examine its provenance and structural integrity so as to allow the group to which they are loyal to respond with advantage.
Your responses amount to little more than uncritical copy and paste, with all the petitio principii attendant.]
…
[Leroy
Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink
rosemour – just so you know, you are by far my most despised commentator on this blog.
You offer nothing constructive or informative, while you seek endless therapy through pessimism for your poltical stress.
I prefer any of the Lib posters, or any other leadership/poll angsting ALP posters, to you.
Go f ck (sic) yourself. ]
…
[Tom Hawkins
Posted Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
rosemour
What the fuck do you drink in between mouthfuls of shit sandwiches?
If you think Emerson gave a poor showing on 7.30 then you are a troll.]
…
[BH
Posted Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 12:38 pm | Permalink
h lord, it could be hand delivered with a card that says Free Gift For The Labor Party with instructions and they still wouldn’t know how to take advantage of it.
The ALP, great at policy, fwacking amateurs at politics.
I, and many others, have watched numerous press conferences where the PM and other Labor Ministers have absolutely floored the journos with good responses backed up by facts. Many are quick grabs that could be used for news bulletins.
I’ve then watched the news bulletins and what do we get – nothing more than a quick few grabs of Labor either before or after ‘the Federal Oppn says’ or we get the Oppn spokesperson bleating for ages about the content of the Govt’s presser.
It’s amazing to see how it’s done. Sky News and Fran Kelly is particularly clever at deluding by omission when discussing Labor issues. ]
…
[Jackol
Posted Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 8:30 am | Permalink
Rosemour – if all the diodes down your left side are giving you pain perhaps you should take up some other activity.]
…
[Von Kirsdarke
Posted Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink
Why don’t you just join the Liberals if you admire them so much, rosemour?
All you’ve been doing these past few months is whine and bitch about everything Labor does. I would’ve taken you more seriously if you tried to engage with others and come up with a solution, but you turned down every attempt of doing so by turning around and moaning ]
…
[victoria
Posted Thursday, December 13, 2012 at 8:36 am | Permalink
rosemour
Coping with what? You keep bagging Labor for everything.]
…
[C@tmomma
Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 11:18 am | Permalink
rosemour,
You are the political equivalent of the Liberals succeeding in talking down the economy. ]
…
[victoria
Posted Thursday, February 28, 2013 at 9:02 am | Permalink
Rosemour
Sorry but you are the most repetitive hysterical shrill to have graced this blog]
….
[victoria
Posted Thursday, February 28, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink
Rosemour Seriously. You are the most predictable poster here,
Doom and gloom, Labor is hopeless. Cant bat cant bowl. It is over blah blah blah!!
Get a grip man]
…
[dave
Posted Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 2:06 pm | Permalink
Rosemour or Less@3560
The normal sneering smart arse comments that you continually make here do nothing to help Labor, quite the opposite.
If you really think your thought bubbles have any real worth phone Swan’s office or another one of the senior Ministers.
But if you make such comments as you do here and in that same tone, they’ll assume you actually want to help the likes of
Hockey whom you say you are appalled by.
Putting the boot into Labor at times when it needs all the real help it can get are just cheap shots.
But make your mind up who you support. ]
…
[Bill B.
Posted Thursday, February 28, 2013 at 12:54 pm | Permalink
Is Rosemouth {a} Labor supporter. I don’t think so.
The difference between {him} and your classic concern troll is that {his} postings are more hateful and overtly poisonous. ]
Bowen absolutely out of his league on LL
Creamed by Albericci.
He really looks uncomfortable in his role.
Mind you, he STILL looks better than Ducky ever did. 🙂
Here’s an easier to read version of the sort of intimidation this dont be an idit saturday guy copped from those BWAVE WIGHT TO FWEE SPEECHERS in the LNP: http://t.co/aUfm1V3uVj
“@william7424: Macquarie MP Louise Markus under fire over stance on gay marriage says ‘Gays should move’ to the UK http://t.co/Ug9MwkVTcL #auspol #ausvotes”
[Mick77
…Sadly, the prediction for how many will care is easier. A lot of our “aid” is … up against the wall or put into improper pockets or even hostile pockets. There should probably be an enquiry into exactly what happens to our billions, colour charts and percentages and money trails included, and it’ll give the public a chance to think about both sides of the story.]
I would absolutely LOVE to see a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of a billion spent on aid versus a billion spent on ANY OTHER BUDGET ITEM.
Lets compare what we got for those different billion bucks. A head to head would be very valuable for voters to see, I reckon!
Pseph, naa he’ll hang onto comms and broadband and will do a Rudd, biding his time ….
“@Riley7News: Final 7News/ReachTEL poll in. Palmer result will shock majors. Bad for ALP in house. Bad for Coalition in Senate. Details @sunriseon7”
Perhaps we will get it late tonight???
@Dave
You should seriously re-evaluate what you spend your energy on. How long did it take you to go back and collect all those quotes?
June 2016: A triumphant Malcolm Turnbull emerged from the Liberal Party room in Parliament House this afternoon after being unanimously chosen as the party’s new leader. Prime Minister Tony Abbott did not contest the ballot after it became clear that he had lost the support of the party. He pledged support for the new leader. Mr Turnbull is expected to visit Government House shortly, where Governor-General Peter Cosgrove will swear him in as Prime Minister. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop was re-elected Deputy Leader unopposed. Treasurer Joe Hockey is expected to join Mr Abbott on the backbench. AAP
Prediction.
Abbott will find that being PM has him in an entirely different public context whose horror of him will not take long to materialise.
Suspect it won’t take long for the public to start cringing when Abbott appears on TV and in mixed company and opens his mouth.
The Coalition and Abbott will tank awfully within 12 months and Turnbull super hot favourite to replace him.
Meanwhile that means Labor has less than 12 months to settle their knife fight.
Pseph 1973 Snap
[ Sadly, the prediction for how many will care is easier. A lot of our “aid” is … up against the wall or put into improper pockets or even hostile pockets. There should probably be an enquiry into exactly what happens to our billions, colour charts and percentages and money trails included, and it’ll give the public a chance to think about both sides of the story. ]
haven’t heard of any real problems since the AWB / Coalition / Saddam Hussein wheat for weapons scandal, would have assumed the Libs put strong legislation in place to prevent a repeat of that sort of stuff
Warrior Dave
I understand you’re a fan.
but seriously I think you need to get over your obsession with Rosemour.
I mean, it feels a bit like stalking and that’s creeping me out.
Stick to Tony. He looks much better in Speedos.
You won’t have to pretend after Saturday.
Sad little person.
J etc
[1955/1957 – I would have been seriously… SERIOUSLY tempted to vote Liberal for the first time in a long time if Turnbull was there.]
However many of those who currently are voting lib would be seriously tempted not to if Turnbull were leader. The key points that Abbott has used to destroy Labor and Labor leaders is: carbon tax/Greens influence, NBN waste, stop the boats; add to that Abbott’s views on gay marriage, monarchy and other matters. Therefore it would have been impossible for Turnbull to prosecute these libs policies and he wouldn’t have got to an election winning position like Abbott has. Abbott is a leader who has brought the party, mainly silently, with him, and well done to him whatever you think of his policies. He’s a masterful political leader and the people’s current choice for PM.
A distraction for waiting time and is off topic
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/sep/05/british-songwriter-interviews-secrets?CMP=twt_gu
Lay off Rosemour. He’s not a Liberal troll.
He’s just an incredibly depressed Tasmanian cheese-eating surrender monkey.
Mmmm…. Tasmanian cheese…
1973 – don’t get me too excited…
1967 – does Markus not know who lives in her electorate? take a walk around Wentworth Falls and Leura … and dear, they were there LONG before you got shifted into the electorate.
rosemour
what have you ever done to help Labor?
Utter scum.
River
The creepy thing – for me – is that Warrior Dave has a scrap book! Prbably pictures of Rosemour as well.
Creepy!!!
[Bad for Coalition in Senate]
This is all that matters when Murdoch is PM.
Uuhhmm… That’s a pretty hefty policy document outlining e-safety commissioner, making cyber-bullying an offence and “filter, turned on by default” replaced with a three paragraph statement that “we shalt not filter”.
So who fucked that one up? Somebody didn’t run it by Turnbull or Turnbull jumped on it until it was taken down?
1978 – and that’s the country’s loss.
Greetings from the wild west, bludgers
At least here, a fair chance of a swing to the government 😀
[lefty e
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:12 pm | Permalink
Lay off Rosemour. He’s not a Liberal troll. ]
Figures. Another green.
Don’t worry Mod Lib, your not the only Lib here in the so called wilderness.
Guess you can call it the wilderness here, the sad & sorry place where ALP supporters gather to boost their egos & dream of the come from behind win!
Rather funny really!
Warrior
You don’t mind if I use your first name?You still haven’t told me what you think of Andrew Leigh for shadow treasurer?
You do care don’t you Warrior?
TP
Bad for Coalition in Senate means Labor’s legacies and those shared with Greens are safe.
A pity not enough for NBN though
Is it just me, or is the coalition now trying to cram in every extremist wish they can think of and pretend it has a mandate, cos they’re winning?
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
The creepy thing – for me – is that Dave has a scrap book ]
What is even worse is your comments.
They damn you as do others here.
Dave reminds me of Frank.
And I just want to go him.
Psephos @1973
I think that Labor leadership shennanigans and jet leg have caused you to hallucinate. The GG Cosgrove part may be right, or John Howard, however Abbott is about to become PM for 2 terms. Turnbull is not a threat and is far less ambitious than he used to be.
Warrior DAve @ 1993
This one’s a bit cryptic Warrior….might need a translation. Or pictograms if that’s easier.
I assume ReachTel will have Palmer (based on their inexplicable rate of increase) at … say 8%?
I’m having a really hard time taking polls too seriously when preference allocation is on almost pure guesswork…
Mick
Abbott will lose the DD election. Reality of an Abbott Government will have struck home.