I’m running the above headline essentially because I have no new poll to trumpet for the following assortment of bits-and-pieces. The latest addition is yesterday’s large-sample ReachTEL poll, which was a relatively good result for Labor taking into account the past lean to the Coalition in this series. Its inclusion caused a 0.6% shift in Labor’s favour without affecting the seat projection, mostly because the improvement was concentrated in Victoria where there are few marginal seats. This isn’t the first time recently that the addition of a ReachTEL result has caused BludgerTrack to move in Labor’s favour, which raises the possibility that the series is not as pro-Coalition as it used to be. If so, the addition of the result with out-of-date bias adjustments attached might be causing the present BludgerTrack numbers to flatter Labor slightly. There has apparently been, for the second evening running, a poll conducted overnight by ReachTEL which will have been unveiled on Seven Sunrise by the time most of you are reading this.
(UPDATE: A less good result today for Labor, and another good one for the Palmer United Party. Labor’s primary vote is down to 32.7% and the Coalition’s up to 43.6%, with the Greens on 10.0% and Palmer on 6.1%. Two-party preferred is 53-47 to the Coalition. ReachTEL also has a very ugly result for Labor from the Tasmanian seat of Bass, courtesy of the Launceston Examiner, with Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic on 51.8% and Labor member Geoff Lyons on 26.6%.)
Now to those bits and pieces. First, I address what looks to be one of the election’s most significant imponderables: the share of the vote that will go to micro-parties in the Senate. Much hinges on the answer, given the tightness of the preference arrangements between micro-parties and the extremely limited value of polling as a guide to the smaller details of Senate voting patterns. Tim Colebatch of Fairfax has run reports over the past week based based on what Antony Green’s Senate election calcalators come up with when seemingly plausible vote share scenarios are plugged into them, which have been partly inspired by simulations conducted by Poll Bludger commenter Truth Seeker (who details them on his own blog).
One particularly headline-grabbing observation was that Pauline Hanson might succeed in her bid for a New South Wales Senate seat at the expense of Arthur Sinodinos, who has the number three position on the Coalition ticket in New South Wales. Since Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all have Hanson last on their preference order, this can only happen if she and the various parties feeding her preferences collectively amount to more than a quota (14.3%). Colebatch argues that this is highly plausible: “In 2010, 29 micro-parties won 14 per cent of the vote between them. This time there will be 41 of them, and disillusioned Labor supporters could swell their collective vote to 20 per cent – easily enough for a Senate quota.”
This appears to assume that collective vote share of micro-parties will continue to expand as more of them enter the field. Evidence from the last three elections, which provide a common footing in that the Democrats and One Nation had faded from minor to micro-party status, provides some support for this. Excluding the unusual circumstance of South Australia in 2007, when Nick Xenophon polled a full quota in his own right, there are 17 state-level observations for modelling the relationship between the number of Senate groups and the vote share for micro-parties (which I take to mean everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens). The model I have derived is 0.243+(0.283*A)+(0.681*B), where A is the number of Senate groups and B is the “others” vote in the House of Representatives from the state in question. This has an R-squared of 0.517 and a p-value of 0.006, which is to say that the model explains 51.7% of the variation in these 17 results and has a 99.4% chance of being better than no model at all.
With unprecedented numbers of Senate groups at this election ranging from 23 in Tasmania to 44 in New South Wales, this suggests “others” votes ranging from 12.9% to 20.5% (going off the BludgerTrack projections for the lower house “others” vote), which is well in line with Colebatch’s expectations. However, there’s a considerable theoretical problem with the model in that it presumes the relationship to be perfectly linear. If this were so, the major party vote would disappear altogether if only enough micro-parties took the field. In reality, the rate of increase has to taper off, and the meagre sample of observations available offers no insight as to point at which it does so. My own guess though is that it kicks in fairly sharply before we reach the stage where we can start talking of an aggregate micro-party vote approaching 20%.
To offer some historic guidance as to the sorts of numbers you should be punching into the Senate calcalators, the table below displays the vote for micro-parties of various kinds in each state. “Religious” includes the Democratic Labour Party, although they no doubt occupy something of a grey area. The “right” category is exclusive of the “religious” one. “Left” is defined broadly to incorporate the Democrats and all environmentalist concerns, even ostensibly conservative ones. There were also parties and independents that were deemed not to fall into any of these categories, so the “total” column is not simply an aggregate of the other three.
2010 Relig. Right Left Total NSW 3.63 5.55 3.37 13.82 Victoria 5.35 3.83 3.28 13.2 Queensland 4.31 7.59 3.61 16.43 WA 3.71 2.66 2.81 9.92 SA 5 2.65 2.55 11.11 Tasmania 1.69 2.24 0.66 5.36 TOTAL 4.16 4.81 3.18 13.13 2007 NSW 3.83 3.35 2.44 10.17 Victoria 3.77 1.24 3.16 8.72 Queensland 2.76 6.73 3.04 13.08 WA 3.57 1.1 1.84 7.04 SA 3.97 1.68 1.68 22.25 Tasmania 2.67 0.19 0.78 4.38 TOTAL 3.48 2.97 2.57 10.71 2004 NSW 3.17 3.73 3.88 12.17 Victoria 4.16 1.55 4.18 10.98 Queensland 3.37 9.34 4.09 18.05 WA 2.73 2.82 3.05 9.22 SA 3.98 1.53 3.95 10.02 Tasmania 3.03 0.16 0.82 7.04 TOTAL 3.42 2.93 3.84 12.22
Now to some scattered bits of news for around the traps that I have recently used to supplement the seat-by-seat election guide:
Indi (Liberal 9.0%):Liberals have been telling journalists of serious concerns for Sophie Mirabella’s hold on Indi, where she faces a well-organised challenge from independent Cathy McGowan. The Guardian reports on widespread opinion polling being conducted in the electorate; the Weekly Times reports that Labor are campaigning strongly to boost McGowan; and The Australian reports some in the Liberal Party have been urging Tony Abbott to visit the electorate. The contest is another source of friction between the coalition parties, with former state Nationals MP Ken Jasper among those who are throwing their weight behind McGowan.
Melbourne (Greens 6.0% versus Labor): The Greens have been spruiking a poll of 400 respondents conducted for them by Galaxy showing Adam Bandt’s primary vote up 4% since the 2010 election, with “as many as four in 10” Liberal voters in the seat planning to ignore the direction of their party’s how-to-vote card that voters should favour Labor ahead of the Greens in their preference allocation. This is actually in line with the 35% rate of leakage in inner Melbourne when the Liberals likewise directed preferences against the Greens at the 2010 state election, which nonetheless wasn’t high enough to win them any of the seats they were anticipating. But taken together with the purported primary vote swing, it suggests a very close result.
McMahon (Labor 7.8%): The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat, Liverpool area police superintendent Ray King, has been defended by a series of police figures and corruption investigators after Labor claimed he had a “close friend” in Roger Rogerson, the notorious detective who was imprisoned in 1990 for perverting the course of justice. The claim has been denied by Rogerson as well as King, with retired assistant commissioner Geoff Schuberg complaining of a “grubby, baseless smear campaign”.
Forde (Liberal National 1.6%):The Australian reports that Forde MP Bert van Manen, who is fighting off a challenge from Peter Beattie, was the half-owner and recently resigned director of a financial planning firm which owed creditors more than $1.5 million when it collapsed last year. The report says administrators KPMG had told creditors of “unreasonable director-related transactions” behind the collapse. A Liberal spokesperson was quoted saying van Manen had personally settled with the main credtior, Westpac, but no comment was offered on $325,000 owed to three further creditors.
Greenway (Labor 0.9%): The Sydney Morning Herald observes a “systemic” silence among Liberal candidates in Sydney, “with multiple examples emerging of candidates pulling out of events or interviews”. The low profile assumed by Greenway MP Jaymes Diaz has been particularly widely noted, after he failed to show for a candidates forum in Blacktown last week.
Herbert (Liberal National 2.2%) and Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%): Sid Maher of The Australian identifies marginal seats on the central Queensland coast as the main targets for the Coalition’s promised curtailing of marine protected areas, a pitch at commercial and recreational fishers. A similar promise before the 2010 election was “credited with delivering the seat of Dawson”, by persons unidentified.
Rosemour or Less@1994
Go ahead and try.
You have already put the boot into Labor as much as possible over months.
Go ahead – have a go at me.
How many here actually think the ALP can win?
‘what have you ever done to help Labor?
Well I’ll never tell you Warrior you tiresome little man.
[Wesley Rickard
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:15 pm | PERMALINK
Don’t worry Mod Lib, your not the only Lib here in the so called wilderness.]
YAY!
J341
I think maybe depending on costings and filter gate. Might be too late though.
However I do think the Senate is another matter.
I’m having a hard time finding 65… but we’ve but very few who think it can be done… so no need for self-congratulations WR.
Wesley Rickard. Lay off Ted. He’s got an agonising choice on Saturday and is clearly feeling the pain. Rationally and morally he knows what is the correct way to cast his vote but he just cant bring himself to do it.
‘How many here actually think the ALP can win?’
Me and Warrior Dave.
That’s two at least.
[How many here actually think the ALP can win?]
He’s not actually here at the moment.
[He’s a masterful political leader and the people’s current choice for PM.]
OTOH Mick, Abbott single handedly prevented them forming government in 2010. The indies would have backed Turnbull for sure, but couldnt stand Abbott. They said as much.
With 3 conservatwive indies holding BOP, it was a pretty disastrous effort from Tones.
mick77
Funny bloke.
[Rossmore
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:22 pm | PERMALINK
Wesley Rickard. Lay off Ted. He’s got an agonising choice on Saturday and is clearly feeling the pain. Rationally and morally he knows what is the correct way to cast his vote but he just cant bring himself to do it.]
Haha, is this your conscience telling you not to vote ALP just because you always has as that is the very reason they can get away with what they have got away with?
Haha 🙂
Only way Labor can win from here if Abbott and Turnbull get arrested for running a child porn site.
‘How many here actually think the ALP can win?’
Me, eventually, as they always do.
@Mod Lib/2010
You should vote Katter, it piss off LNP more than voting for Palmer.
2011… A HA!!! so that’s why this was concocted to kill off the filter!
Have you given up Warrior coz I wanto retire now unless you want to have another crack.
I’m up for it but I’ll need to open another bottle.
Get back to me….
Have you given up Warrior coz I wanto retire now unless you want to have another crack.
I’m up for it but I’ll need to open another bottle.
Get back to me….
“@MrPinkCarpet: Pls RT If you’re hoping Sophie the Nasty Mirabella @SMirabellaMP loses her seat. I think @Indigocathy is a wonderful candidates #auspol”
This guy lives in the Waringah Electorate. Seems fame has spread.
Hmmm! Wonder if Reachtel have polled on Senate voting intentions?
Don’t worry Mod Lib… your misery and extreme embarrassment will start very quickly…we are going to have quite some fun just describing Abbott in office.
Rosemour or Less@2001
You have nothing to tell apart from declaring surrender and defeat the night the election was called.
You have only ever decried and ridiculed Labor on this board and you have done it with intensity and feavour over a long period.
Your posts here say it all not matter how much you now try to run away from them like a dog.
At least dogs show loyalty.
‘Only way Labor can win from here if Abbott and Turnbull get arrested for running a child porn site.’
I dunno, if we’re talking little boys, maybe.
But I reckon they’d get away with it if we’re talking ladies. They’d get the stud vote and the football fraternity.
Once people don’t have the ALP leadership to focus on… Abbott is the focus and that’ll turn ugly REAL fast.
Ah, good news from the senate will be a cheering consolation indeed.
I am firmly of the belief that Abbott wont go the distance as PM, and the LNP will have to replace him midstream.
His unpopularity, evident within months, will rule out a DD and the senate will protect much of the Rudd/ Gillard legacy.
Interesting times ahead.
Ted, au contraire, I have already voted for the ALP. In any rational and modern policy ledger the ALP is streets ahead of the LNP. I may not agree or wholeheartedly endorse all the ALP policies but I gag at some of the more extreme postures of the ‘modern’ LNP.
[Thomas. Paine.
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
Don’t worry Mod Lib… your misery and extreme embarrassment will start very quickly]
More projection! :devil:
Am I at the movies?
I’m finding this bitch fight btw Dave & Rosemour or Less rather amusing
1995
“Turnbull is less ambitious than he used to be.” is about as credible as “Rudd does not want to be PM again was”.
Some economist called Leon Gettler notes:
[OK here’s another two problems with the Coalition’s costings. First, they’re based on the assumption of unemployment at some stage reaching 6.25 per cent. OK, that makes sense. But let me be the nuisance journalist and ask a pesky question: what if unemployment went up to 6.5 per cent. Not impossible. OK, it’s only .25 per cent difference but when people are out of work, it means less tax coming in and less money collected on GST. That blows out their projected $6 billion improvement in the budget bottom line. Also, they are working on the assumption that the dollar will stay at US90 cents. That’s just bullshit. Commodity prices are going up again and what happens if the Chinese economy rebounds (the OECD is forecasting 8% growth next year). That would send the dollar to US95 cents. That would kill business because they would be making less money on exports. Tax revenues will crash. Again that will destroy their $6 bn better budget bottom line. Oh yes, I forgot to mention something else. Their $6bn better bottom line is over 4 years which comes out to $1.5bn a year. Now the Federal Budget is about $800 billion. So $1.5 bn out of $800 bn is 0.2 per cent. Cyclone Yasi losses cost more. That’s not even a rounding error. I’m sorry, but Joe Hockey’s costings just don’t add up.]
@Wesley Rickard/2026
And between you, Dave, Rosemour even less amusing.
Quiet tiring to have to scroll past.
The public will quickly realise that by comparison Gillard and Rudd were shining beacons of light, hope, intelligence and sanity.
Well Newscorpse will try hard for a while to support their puppet….but they can’t protect him from TV.
Warrior Dave
Sorry I got bored half way through your last post; just switched off…sorry.
Not fun anymore.
Go away please and take your earnest heroism with you.
Please fixate on someone else now.
That’s a good boy.
The Rudd Gillard governments have been really good governments. Terrible at spin, terrible at politics, but really really really good for the country. We should be very proud of the policy and the policy outcomes.
Whatever happens on Saturday, Rudd has given them a fight, and almost certainly saved the senate. If he wins it will almost be as wonderful as the night Paul won. If the next senate is still labor greens we have done ok.
If Abbott takes the house and the senate we still have 9 months to frustrate the hell out of him, and then we know what idiots Liberals are when they control both houses.
From what was less than 2 months ago a total disaster, we have had hope, and we’ve had fight.
For more than 100 years the Labor Party and the Labor movement have fought and won for ordinary had working Australians. More than any other party we have created the great Australia we have, notwithstanding the set backs of poor PM’s like Howard and Menzies, and the terrible PM’s like Howard. We can hold our heads high and be very proud whatever happens.
Warrior,
I’ll miss you.
Don’t think I don’t care.
I just need to move on now.
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
Go away please ]
Not going to happen until you return to menzies house.
You were going to “Go me” but more empty crap.
All you are any good at is having a go at those who don’t fight back.
At least a dog shows loyalty.
But not you.
I’m finding the pedophile theory being thrown at Abbott utterly disgusting!
I’ve seen those sort of comments on other sites too.
This is typical sort of gutter crap that comes from the immature, low life ALP supporter.
Too many typos: ‘hard working Australians’ not had working Australians’ and ‘poor PM’s like Fraser and Menzies’ not ‘Howard and Menzies’. Fingers and brain tired must be bed time.
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink
I just need to move on now. ]
Of course – run along – back to abbott for a pat on the head.
‘The Rudd Gillard governments have been really good governments. Terrible at spin, terrible at politics, but really really really good for the country. We should be very proud of the policy and the policy outcomes.’
Couldn’t agree more.
Which of course is what I’ve been on about all along.
Is it any wonder some of us can’t get past the anger stage?
Well, except Warrior Dave, he doesn’t think there’s a problem.
On what the papers say spinning it dire for Labor of course on polls we have seen.
However was made known that looks like Sophie is losing Indi.
🙂 🙂 :))
A brightness in the dark of the HOR.
Who said he was actually a fucking paedophile…
‘Of course – run along – back to abbott for a pat on the head.’
Good try Warrior.
Think about Abbott and ‘head’ a bit do you?
Andrew Leigh? Any thoughts yet?
WeWantPaul … Yep in the historical narrative its the ALP that has made the modern Australia we know and love. And a legacy that has endured way beyond the small minded, little Englander LNP.
@Wesley Rickard/2035
Nice to lump everyone in the same basket.
NOT.
[Whatever happens on Saturday, Rudd has given them a fight, and almost certainly saved the senate. If he wins it will almost be as wonderful as the night Paul won. If the next senate is still labor greens we have done ok.
If Abbott takes the house and the senate we still have 9 months to frustrate the hell out of him, and then we know what idiots Liberals are when they control both houses.
From what was less than 2 months ago a total disaster, we have had hope, and we’ve had fight. ]
Outstanding, WWP! Well said. Spot on.
From a lay down misere wipeout in June to this, an ordinary, run-of the-mill change of government 2PP vote in Australian historical terms – and maybe, maybe yet closer, and with the massive strategic bonus of the senate looking a real chance to hold.
Maybe there were mistakes,things that could have been done better, Im sure we can discuss that at length from Sunday – but its nothing short of an heroic rescue operation any way you slice it.
‘WeWantPaul … Yep in the historical narrative its the ALP that has made the modern Australia we know and love. And a legacy that has endured way beyond the small minded, little Englander LNP.’
Again,something I’ve said on more than one occasion.
Wesley,
Yes, you’ll have to reveal your sources.
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:39 pm | Permalink
‘Of course – run along – back to abbott for a pat on the head.’ ]
Thanks for biting like the numpty you are.
The big loss is going to be the losing of time with the loss of the NBN and the rail projects.
Such a waste.