I’m running the above headline essentially because I have no new poll to trumpet for the following assortment of bits-and-pieces. The latest addition is yesterday’s large-sample ReachTEL poll, which was a relatively good result for Labor taking into account the past lean to the Coalition in this series. Its inclusion caused a 0.6% shift in Labor’s favour without affecting the seat projection, mostly because the improvement was concentrated in Victoria where there are few marginal seats. This isn’t the first time recently that the addition of a ReachTEL result has caused BludgerTrack to move in Labor’s favour, which raises the possibility that the series is not as pro-Coalition as it used to be. If so, the addition of the result with out-of-date bias adjustments attached might be causing the present BludgerTrack numbers to flatter Labor slightly. There has apparently been, for the second evening running, a poll conducted overnight by ReachTEL which will have been unveiled on Seven Sunrise by the time most of you are reading this.
(UPDATE: A less good result today for Labor, and another good one for the Palmer United Party. Labor’s primary vote is down to 32.7% and the Coalition’s up to 43.6%, with the Greens on 10.0% and Palmer on 6.1%. Two-party preferred is 53-47 to the Coalition. ReachTEL also has a very ugly result for Labor from the Tasmanian seat of Bass, courtesy of the Launceston Examiner, with Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic on 51.8% and Labor member Geoff Lyons on 26.6%.)
Now to those bits and pieces. First, I address what looks to be one of the election’s most significant imponderables: the share of the vote that will go to micro-parties in the Senate. Much hinges on the answer, given the tightness of the preference arrangements between micro-parties and the extremely limited value of polling as a guide to the smaller details of Senate voting patterns. Tim Colebatch of Fairfax has run reports over the past week based based on what Antony Green’s Senate election calcalators come up with when seemingly plausible vote share scenarios are plugged into them, which have been partly inspired by simulations conducted by Poll Bludger commenter Truth Seeker (who details them on his own blog).
One particularly headline-grabbing observation was that Pauline Hanson might succeed in her bid for a New South Wales Senate seat at the expense of Arthur Sinodinos, who has the number three position on the Coalition ticket in New South Wales. Since Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all have Hanson last on their preference order, this can only happen if she and the various parties feeding her preferences collectively amount to more than a quota (14.3%). Colebatch argues that this is highly plausible: “In 2010, 29 micro-parties won 14 per cent of the vote between them. This time there will be 41 of them, and disillusioned Labor supporters could swell their collective vote to 20 per cent – easily enough for a Senate quota.”
This appears to assume that collective vote share of micro-parties will continue to expand as more of them enter the field. Evidence from the last three elections, which provide a common footing in that the Democrats and One Nation had faded from minor to micro-party status, provides some support for this. Excluding the unusual circumstance of South Australia in 2007, when Nick Xenophon polled a full quota in his own right, there are 17 state-level observations for modelling the relationship between the number of Senate groups and the vote share for micro-parties (which I take to mean everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens). The model I have derived is 0.243+(0.283*A)+(0.681*B), where A is the number of Senate groups and B is the “others” vote in the House of Representatives from the state in question. This has an R-squared of 0.517 and a p-value of 0.006, which is to say that the model explains 51.7% of the variation in these 17 results and has a 99.4% chance of being better than no model at all.
With unprecedented numbers of Senate groups at this election ranging from 23 in Tasmania to 44 in New South Wales, this suggests “others” votes ranging from 12.9% to 20.5% (going off the BludgerTrack projections for the lower house “others” vote), which is well in line with Colebatch’s expectations. However, there’s a considerable theoretical problem with the model in that it presumes the relationship to be perfectly linear. If this were so, the major party vote would disappear altogether if only enough micro-parties took the field. In reality, the rate of increase has to taper off, and the meagre sample of observations available offers no insight as to point at which it does so. My own guess though is that it kicks in fairly sharply before we reach the stage where we can start talking of an aggregate micro-party vote approaching 20%.
To offer some historic guidance as to the sorts of numbers you should be punching into the Senate calcalators, the table below displays the vote for micro-parties of various kinds in each state. “Religious” includes the Democratic Labour Party, although they no doubt occupy something of a grey area. The “right” category is exclusive of the “religious” one. “Left” is defined broadly to incorporate the Democrats and all environmentalist concerns, even ostensibly conservative ones. There were also parties and independents that were deemed not to fall into any of these categories, so the “total” column is not simply an aggregate of the other three.
2010 Relig. Right Left Total NSW 3.63 5.55 3.37 13.82 Victoria 5.35 3.83 3.28 13.2 Queensland 4.31 7.59 3.61 16.43 WA 3.71 2.66 2.81 9.92 SA 5 2.65 2.55 11.11 Tasmania 1.69 2.24 0.66 5.36 TOTAL 4.16 4.81 3.18 13.13 2007 NSW 3.83 3.35 2.44 10.17 Victoria 3.77 1.24 3.16 8.72 Queensland 2.76 6.73 3.04 13.08 WA 3.57 1.1 1.84 7.04 SA 3.97 1.68 1.68 22.25 Tasmania 2.67 0.19 0.78 4.38 TOTAL 3.48 2.97 2.57 10.71 2004 NSW 3.17 3.73 3.88 12.17 Victoria 4.16 1.55 4.18 10.98 Queensland 3.37 9.34 4.09 18.05 WA 2.73 2.82 3.05 9.22 SA 3.98 1.53 3.95 10.02 Tasmania 3.03 0.16 0.82 7.04 TOTAL 3.42 2.93 3.84 12.22
Now to some scattered bits of news for around the traps that I have recently used to supplement the seat-by-seat election guide:
Indi (Liberal 9.0%):Liberals have been telling journalists of serious concerns for Sophie Mirabella’s hold on Indi, where she faces a well-organised challenge from independent Cathy McGowan. The Guardian reports on widespread opinion polling being conducted in the electorate; the Weekly Times reports that Labor are campaigning strongly to boost McGowan; and The Australian reports some in the Liberal Party have been urging Tony Abbott to visit the electorate. The contest is another source of friction between the coalition parties, with former state Nationals MP Ken Jasper among those who are throwing their weight behind McGowan.
Melbourne (Greens 6.0% versus Labor): The Greens have been spruiking a poll of 400 respondents conducted for them by Galaxy showing Adam Bandt’s primary vote up 4% since the 2010 election, with “as many as four in 10” Liberal voters in the seat planning to ignore the direction of their party’s how-to-vote card that voters should favour Labor ahead of the Greens in their preference allocation. This is actually in line with the 35% rate of leakage in inner Melbourne when the Liberals likewise directed preferences against the Greens at the 2010 state election, which nonetheless wasn’t high enough to win them any of the seats they were anticipating. But taken together with the purported primary vote swing, it suggests a very close result.
McMahon (Labor 7.8%): The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat, Liverpool area police superintendent Ray King, has been defended by a series of police figures and corruption investigators after Labor claimed he had a “close friend” in Roger Rogerson, the notorious detective who was imprisoned in 1990 for perverting the course of justice. The claim has been denied by Rogerson as well as King, with retired assistant commissioner Geoff Schuberg complaining of a “grubby, baseless smear campaign”.
Forde (Liberal National 1.6%):The Australian reports that Forde MP Bert van Manen, who is fighting off a challenge from Peter Beattie, was the half-owner and recently resigned director of a financial planning firm which owed creditors more than $1.5 million when it collapsed last year. The report says administrators KPMG had told creditors of “unreasonable director-related transactions” behind the collapse. A Liberal spokesperson was quoted saying van Manen had personally settled with the main credtior, Westpac, but no comment was offered on $325,000 owed to three further creditors.
Greenway (Labor 0.9%): The Sydney Morning Herald observes a “systemic” silence among Liberal candidates in Sydney, “with multiple examples emerging of candidates pulling out of events or interviews”. The low profile assumed by Greenway MP Jaymes Diaz has been particularly widely noted, after he failed to show for a candidates forum in Blacktown last week.
Herbert (Liberal National 2.2%) and Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%): Sid Maher of The Australian identifies marginal seats on the central Queensland coast as the main targets for the Coalition’s promised curtailing of marine protected areas, a pitch at commercial and recreational fishers. A similar promise before the 2010 election was “credited with delivering the seat of Dawson”, by persons unidentified.
Z @1895 – WTF? Aid funding will be no less than it currently is. It is not a cut in current funding levels.
[quote]does anyone have any idea what the Coalition stand for?[/quote]
Small Government… traditionally anyway.
‘You are someone people cross the street when they see you coming.
A Traitor, backstabber. Someone to avoid all contact with at all cost.’
Daveo, don’t project your own insecurities and personality shortcomings on someone you don’t even lnow.
What sad little tory in bleeding heart clothing you are.
Into the breach Davo! One more time.
Compact Crank:
It is about half what we promised we would spend, so not increasing it at the rate previously promised is still a cut even if we still spend some money.
This kind of decision is what I mean about this being the worst choice before the electorate in my memory.
Psephos says it is just the leadership, and the policy stuff is fine.
I see an Australia with a rendition policy, an ALP cutting single parent pensions, both sides cutting development assistance that saves lives and is amongst the most valuable of all government spending (precious little has the same magnitude of effect), we have constant chopping and changing from one view to diametrically opposite views.
Both parties will continue to behave like this as they have fooled most of you into thinking that they are not doing anything wrong.
Its just the ‘other side’ doing the wrong thing. We are all right jack :).
Your choice….your country…
Before the last election we got a large sample Newspoll, which was released in two parts. Part of it on the Thursday night, the rest on the night before. I still remember well the melt down when it came out 50-50, out of line with most other polls at the time which still showed a 52-48 lead to Labor.
@River/1897
It’s a pitty they don’t just put the money towards storing books online…. Oh wait, that is too 21st century for them.
Defunding it isnt enough Mauler – we should burn their books.
Tony Abbott has been learning about the “internet”, and reckons we should burn their pdfs too, to be sure.
MM
Actually Wittgenstein would probably have been fine without any funding as his family was hugely wealthy but I completely agree with your sentiment.
As if Australia wasnt anti-intellectual enough already.
[What a complete shambles.]
Get used to it. With Uncle Rupert as PM from afar, Abbott getting a new bike for being a good boy, Pyne a new whine, Hockey a reinforced hammock….and nobody will have a clue who has the policy pamphlet with which to run the country over the next few years.
Shambles will be the standard from then on.
mod lib – the best form of aid is trade = jobs.
Cheer up Rosemour!
I have a feeling stocks in sarcasm, irony and piss-taking are about to rise sharply under Abbott.
Poor Bowen.
Struggling.
Andrew Leigh has to be shadow treasurer.
Has to be.
What say you Warrior Dave!
Come forward Davo. Gift us with your wisdom.
What say vis a vis Andrew Leigh?
@CC/1908
Not if you can’t get any jobs….
The VC of Sydney Uni is a pretty conservative bloke.
TP
Have you seen the courier mail front page? Its another outrage.
Hope it makes voters vote Labor to spite Murdoch
Twitter trending against Coalition http://t.co/kBs4tizrqI
My God… such Paulite bullshit “we don’t need to send them foreign aid, we need to send them our (my) economic philosophy” …
I really wish people would get their arses out of the cheap seats…
The best form of aid is to pay workers in the developing world properly.
The best form of aid is allowing Timor L’este to benefit from their oil riches rather than nick the proceeds and then ‘trickle down’ some of it in aid to make us feel big.
The problem is that when we are not doing the above, we should at least provide 70% of a cent for every $100.00 we make.
Less than a cent out of every $100 aint much!
[I see an Australia with a rendition policy, an ALP cutting single parent pensions, both sides cutting development assistance that saves lives and is amongst the most valuable of all government spending (precious little has the same magnitude of effect), we have constant chopping and changing from one view to diametrically opposite views.]
So join the Greens and spare us any more of your crap.
Oh sorry Warrior Dave, do I need to explain who Andrew Leigh is? I realise you tory plants aren’t necessarily up on this sort of thing.
43 hours to the end. Shredders are whirring, stationery cupboards raided, last drinks
Mod Lib ever get the feeling your a voice in the LNP wilderness?
The Greens have good policies on many of the social issues but would bugger the economy if allowed to control treasury.
So I for one, will be doing my duty to prevent them from ever controlling the economy.
A vote for the ALP is the closest thing to giving the Greens control of the economy, as evidenced by them determining the carbon tax arrangements, as it wasn’t the ALP!
Here’s the officialcolation internet filter policy: http://www.scribd.com/doc/165697401/Coalition-2013-Election-Policy-%E2%80%93-Enhance-Online-Safety-final
EstJ
That happened weeks ago -don’ you remember Darryl Mellham publicly packing up his office – now what was the point he was making again?
Mod Lib… it so odd, I think we agree on seriously, a lot.
[Rossmore
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:52 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib ever get the feeling your a voice in the LNP wilderness?]
I appear to be a lone voice here on many things!
I don’t mind so much as in the circles I move in in the real world, the idea that it is not good to rendition children to PNG is not such a foreign one! :devil:
[quote]Twitter trending against Coalition [/quote]
Twitter always trends against the Coalition. At the end of the day, it’s only a small percentage of the population and most of them are Labor and Green voters anyway so Libs don’t care.
it’s
Warrior Dave
I prescribe a series of consultations with Lefty-e for six months.
You’ll need to get the address for Lefty’s rooms from his secretary.
You can bill me.
I’m here to help.
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
What say you Warrior Dave!
Come forward Davo. Gift us with your wisdom. ]
How disappointing you must be to people who may have thought you to be a Labor supporter.
Go on kick Labor in the guts like the last 4 weeks.
@lefty e/1922
original version:
Señor Phil @SenorPhil 17m
Coalition removed their filter doc from online hours after removing the link. Here it is on Scribd http://www.scribd.com/doc/165697401/Coalition-2013-Election-Policy-%E2%80%93-Enhance-Online-Safety-final … #auspol #filter
River… did you read the report?
Psephos:
“The Greens – partying like it’s 1973!”
[quote]it’s[/quote]
No edit function’s a bitch, ain’t it 😛
[J341983
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib… it so odd, I think we agree on seriously, a lot.]
Despite what you might think based on the hate mob here, I am not that nasty a person in real life you know 😉
OC June was Ardennes September is Berlin. Or maybe Waterloo and the 100 days after the return from Elba is a better comparator.
[I have a feeling stocks in sarcasm, irony and piss-taking are about to rise sharply under Abbott.]
The cartoonists will be loving it. 🙁
Like I said, I was a Mod-Lib until I was about 25-26… still have a lot of Liberal friends, I can’t abide political tribalism.
[does anyone have any idea what the Coalition stand for?
Small Government… traditionally anyway.]
Live in the now, River. Denial is a place in the Sudan!
The LNP might once have been – but now its all about even bigger expenditure, bigger taxation, just reorietned towards their mates in media, mining, and for middle class welfare.
does anyone have a prediction for how many deaths will result from a 4.5 Billion dollar cut in foreign aid?
Oh dear Warrior Dave.
Your slip is showing dear.
@Jess_Rudd: A message from the ringmaster… http://t.co/Eq3IKlNSvt
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:55 pm | Permalink
I’m here to help]
I’m sure thats what you told abbott.
Pity you couldn’t support Labor.
Even by not belittling them.
[paaptsef
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
does anyone have a prediction for how many deaths will result from a 4.5 Billion dollar cut in foreign aid?]
You asked that when the ALP cut foreign aid, didn’t you paaptsef?
Yeah?
#1899. If the aid funding costing isn’t a cut to current expenditure how is it a saving? Not spending money that someone else intends to doesn’t result in any reduction relative to what is being spent now.
[quote]River… did you read the report?[/quote]
Which report?
I keep getting this image of Mod Lib as Ted Heath about to be shafted by Margaret Thatcher. Loyal to the Tory ideal but totally disillusioned with the swing to the right.
Rosemour\\
I am actually quite pleased with Bowen but, no arguments re the truly excellent Professor Dr Leigh, he’s not even a Parl Sec any more and Bradbury meanwhile … FFS!
The report which outlined the twitter patterns since the election was called… it was there