This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
Just been playing around with old election results where there was a change to see how a bludgertrack 53.1 49.1 compares to past changes of Govt.
2007 ALP 52.7 LNP 47.3
1996 ALP 46.4 LNP 53.6
1983 ALP 53.2 LNP 46.7
1975 ALP 44.6 LNP 55.7
1972 ALP 52.3 LNP 47.3
Of slight interest was that only three times since 1969 has a Govt won with less than 50% TPP.
“@joeobrien24: Abbott: Coalition will give companies $250/fortnight for 13 periods if they take on someone aged over 50 for more than 6 months.”
297 – I’ve heard rumblings that the internal daily trackers this week have not been great for the Coalition… not election losing bad, but enough to have them having to fight a bit harder.
Rosemour
Meguire Bob was our counter irritant to you – or our balm, whichever you like.
But I thought you said you were giving up sarcasm ?
Bishop B is on now in Sloganmans Presser.
She must of lost her very big book. I thought she went everywhere with her very big book under her arm.
I’ll miss Bob if he has left. The country can do with a good dose of his optimism.
304 – I prefer the term salve 😛
pithicus
I seem to remember news poll commissioned robopolling for that. Memory may be faulty
So, where are his detailed costings?
I liked the hung parliament, it’s just that labor could not sell it and with the ALP right running the show would never challenge any of the status quo, eg the media monopoly and the ABC. Hopeless bunch of maggots.
@guytaur
[Coalition will give companies $250/fortnight for 13 periods if they take on someone aged over 50 for more than 6 months]
Oh no not again, so 13 fortnights is what 6 months? wage subsidies are not the way to help as it is not cost that deters employers from engaging older people.
No mention of DD.
So now we know that was an Abbott stuff up. Hubris at work.
[I seem to remember news poll commissioned robopolling for that. Memory may be faulty]
I am not sure either. William would know.
What happens when the money runs out?
Wow a Waringah question. Press aware about something there
J341983
You didn’t get the memo from Tony’s office? A hung parliament is the most destructive tool that can ever be imposed on our democracy. It is your duty to rant and rave against it for evermore.
“Let’s hope a new generation of Labor pollies with a backbone arrives soon.”
And with a bit of luck we might get a new crop of concern trolls.
I’m not watching… what was the Warringah question about?
dovif at 269:
[ I have never understood the term “No Carbon tax under a government that I led” means that it is ok to have a carbon tax …. but whatever floats your boat.]
Well done. Recognising your own inadequacies is a promising start. Might I respectfully suggest, as an aid to your better understanding, that you look at the continuation of the very phrase you know parrot-like by heart. Once you have commanded the full sentence to memory it is to be hoped, over time, that its meaning will sink in. Get back to me after that if you need more help.
“Very, very soon”. What does that mean? There are three days left. Good question. He’s treating voters with contempt.
J34
What did he know about an opposing candidate.
It’s time to call a presser, Tony Windsor, before it’s too late.
I see…
Is there still a sleeper ?
Rabbotts rattled
He is going to run soon
Mb disappoints .. quite lot at present cut and run ? Hope not
I can’t believe that we are about to put this guy in charge of the country.
[311
Dr Fumbles McStupid
@guytaur
Coalition will give companies $250/fortnight for 13 periods if they take on someone aged over 50 for more than 6 months
Oh no not again, so 13 fortnights is what 6 months? wage subsidies are not the way to help as it is not cost that deters employers from engaging older people.]
This reminds me of the old-style labour market programs that Howard abolished, but which continue in some modified form, now administered in the voluntary sector. I wonder who is going to manage these payments?
329 – who will manage the payments? who will ensure that when the money runs out they don’t just sack the worker? what support is given to ensure that the over-50s can up-skill?
Oh wait… no idea, carry on.
Be
A Reachtel on 7 shows Labor up 1 percent, on 48 and competitive. This is among the over-65s who like to talk, on Cheap Movie Nights, to a machine.
Translated, it means Labor is ahead or line ball once you add in the under-35s not called or counted. In Queensland it has Palmer on 4 which, translated, because Palmer is hourly gaining ground, means 8 or 10 by Saturday and threatens every Coalition seat, and some Labor ones round Brisbane, depending on how obediently his voters follow his preferences.
But more importantly it shows votes moving Rudd’s way. Those who have voted already it does not affect. But the million and a half or so who have not yet made up their minds will be stirred, I think, to look at their Prime Minister’s pro-gay speech, one of the best off-the-cuff riffs, I would think, of all time, and the NBN report out today, and the low interest rates reaffirmed yesterday, and Abbott’s devious concealment of not only his figures but his candidates (lest, like Jayme Diaz, they goof and stumble late and often), and will move, I think, towards the 56.8 percent I have long predicted and, with intermittent gulping panics, believed.
It can still be lost, but is harder and harder, thanks
“@GrogsGamut: Abbott essentially saying you should vote for James Diaz, because he will be a sheep.”
[This reminds me of the old-style labour market programs that Howard abolished, but which continue in some modified form, now administered in the voluntary sector. I wonder who is going to manage these payments?]
Employer associations, non-profits, actually I would expect the job network providers would do it especially if they are linked to 50+ year old unemployed.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/approaching-the-summit-20130903-2t3fb.html
Repeats the story that Tony thought his best moment of the campaign was jumping through tyres with the military, but adds more ‘stuff’.
There is also a pic of him with daughters, in which he is kissing one.
This is a bit of a hangup of mine, I know, but compare and contrast the full body hug and smackeroo in this pic, with the body held away and the lips protruding when he kissed his wife.
Body language says it all.
Why was Abbott rattled.?
@burmester_g: #ausvotes If his costings are so watertight, why a commission of audit at at all? Queensland strategy point for point.
Anti Murdoch ad banned!
So much for free speech: what a bunch of complete and utter hypocrites!
http://m.brisbanetimes.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/antimurdoch-ad-banned-from-television-20130903-2t37c.html
some confirmation of border mail.
“@Kieran_Gilbert: Sources from the major parties tell me their polling suggests Sophie Mirabella likely to lose the Victorian seat of Indi @SkyNewsAust”
More confirmation for zoomster
[Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert 13m
Sources from the major parties tell me their polling suggests Sophie Mirabella likely to lose the Victorian seat of Indi @SkyNewsAust ]
lizzie
The word is that Abbott and Margie are in name only
lizzie
Snap! Good news has to be shared 😆
Socrates @ 29
[I am dismayed. The media fix is in, and it is being played out right now.]
You only just noticed?
Our ‘mainstream’ media – including the public broadcasters – has been systematically and very effectively captured and corrupted by a small and very ruthless group of corporatists and theocratically minded hard right ideologues. It has been a textbook case of subversion carried out in the broad daylight of an (allegedly) open, robust democracy.
Plenty of us have been saying for decades that we need to deal with the media problem in Australia (especially Murdoch) before it is too late, and we were largely ignored and contemptuously dismissed as paranoid commies.
It is a completely self-inflicted disaster, one we had decades of increasingly clear warnings about, but which we completely ignored. And now, depending on the outcome of this election, it may be too late.
Labor – including the Great Saint Paul of the Keatings – have to take their share of blame for this. They have done plenty of crawling up the arse of media barons too, especially Murdoch’s.
Now it looks like the real bill is about to come due for our society for all that short-sighted cowardice and idiocy. What could possibly go wrong?
RIVER where are you? Can we get some sensible discussion going here rather than the usual Abbott = the end of the world rabble….
Victoria,
When questioned about costings… he defaults to the usual spiel. The press were calling time is up for release.
He can’t give a straight answer when pressed.
86
Thomas. Paine.
[NT News as low trashy and dishonest as any Murdoch dog poo wrapper.]
‘Twas always thus.
Andrew Greene
“Abbott confirms there’ll be no aged care policy released before election.”
He’s afraid he’ll lose the grey vote?
150
lizzie
[I see that Morrisson has already vowed to hide the figures for asylum seekers. Keeping up the Lib tradition of secrecy.]
Great governance model they are setting us up for.
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 11:06 am | Permalink
Just been playing around with old election results where there was a change to see how a bludgertrack 53.1 49.1 compares to past changes of Govt.
2007 ALP 52.7 LNP 47.3
1996 ALP 46.4 LNP 53.6
1983 ALP 53.2 LNP 46.7
1975 ALP 44.6 LNP 55.7
1972 ALP 52.3 LNP 47.3
Of slight interest was that only three times since 1969 has a Govt won with less than 50% TPP.
Most are predicting a 1996 comparison. Anywhere between 20-50 seat majority!
Here’s the getup ad : censored by the opponents of free speech in the corporate media
https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/media/murdochs-election-campaign/
I will say one thing for the NT. At least they do not pretend to cover politics seriously.
Too busy getting that Croc shot for the front page.