ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 40
1 … 5 6 7 … 40

  1. I find it shaming to tell Europeans that Australia will have the most homophobic right wing government in the western world from Saturday and that the majority of Australians support it.

  2. I find it shaming to tell Europeans that Australia will have the most homophobic right wing government in the western world from Saturday and that the majority of Australians support it.

  4. A reminder. Clive Palmer is a businessman. He may be against a carbon tax but do not assume he is against an ETS. Its a market and Palmer likes markets.

  5. guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    joe blow
    polling has revealed 62% of preferences of PUP go to Labor.

    Well it would indeed be remarkable that former LNP voters would switch their vote to a billionaire, coal miner that Labor has villified for years, and then preference Labor against that Party’s how to vote card. But if that keeps your hopes alive – good luck.

  8. Oh dear poor baby sean now has to have one his other “selves” talk to him to emphasise stupid points’ Give up baby sean just post as yourself or preferably not at all :devil:

  9. ‘Why is the Labor Party so proper? So kid-glove? So mannerly? So piss-weak? It should absorb the reflections of latterday Fabians in the years of desert Faulknerite wilderness that, three days out, are looming.’

    As some of us have been asking here now for some time.

    Ellis is right.
    The opportunities to go the Liberal party have been many and varied and none were pursued by a cowered and timid Labor party.
    It’s a sad spectacle.

  10. The increase in the PUP vote seems to have coincided with the fall in Labor’s vote so it wouldn’t surprise if a lot of those come back to Labor as preferences. This is the case particularly in QLD where some of the seats mat be a lot closer than the polling indicates. Can’t see PUP saving Labor anywhere else though.

  11. swamprat 252

    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    “I find it shaming to tell Europeans that Australia will have the most homophobic right wing government in the western world from Saturday and that the majority of Australians support it.”

    Yet the reality is that in Italy: Same-sex couples and households headed by same-sex couples are not eligible for the same legal protections available to opposite-sex couples.

    More Labor spin swampy?

  15. dovif at 242:

    [So after this election, The LNP stacked the parliamentary committee with LNP members, FF members, maybe a PUP member, and reached “consensus” that there will be no carbon tax under a government Tony Abbott led, you will be quite happy with it and the ALP and Greens should follow the consesus.]

    If the committee was one to which the ALP and the Greens were invited and that committee reached a consensus (“a general agreement on the committee”) not to price carbon I suspect I would be very disappointed with the committee opinion. Obviously having agreed in the consensus I would expect the ALP and Greens to follow the opinion.

    (PS: You have as much difficulty with hypotheticals as you do with understanding plain English. It is these difficulties that divide us.}

  16. Swamprat

    Yes you are correct re what people overseas people think of Australians at the moment, they cannot understand why we are tossing out a competent government and also about the gay issue. This was brought up repeately while I was overseas

    See another of baby sean’s other “selves” has arrived, how many now????

  18. “1 December 2008
    Government welcomes a bipartisan report on immigration detention The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the first report of the inquiry into immigration detention by the Joint Standing Committee on Migration.

    Senator Evans said he was pleased that the Committee, which includes senior Liberal MPs and the Shadow Immigration Minister Sharman Stone, has endorsed the Rudd Government’s abolition of John Howard’s inhumane approach to immigration detention.”

    Sharman Stone on the ABC:
    LEIGH SALES: Does that mean – sorry to interrupt, but I just want to pick up on that point. Does that mean then that we need to see the reinstatement of the TPVs, and the Pacific Solution?

    SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.

    “So back in 2008 the Coalition fully supported Labor’s move to dismantle the Pacific Solution, Why ? Because PM John Howard had decided to spend $400 million upgrading the Christmas Island detention centre to a facility that would accommodate 800 asylum seekers. Why would he do that if the boats had stopped coming?

    Obviously John Howard was thinking “down the track”, he knew that the Pacific Solution was unsustainable, he realised that it was only a matter of time before the Pacific Solution would have to be scrapped because it was a very expensive and extremely inhumane policy to stop the boats.”
    Windhover

    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    dovif at 242:

    So after this election, The LNP stacked the parliamentary committee with LNP members, FF members, maybe a PUP member, and reached “consensus” that there will be no carbon tax under a government Tony Abbott led, you will be quite happy with it and the ALP and Greens should follow the consesus.

    If the committee was one to which the ALP and the Greens were invited and that committee reached a consensus (“a general agreement on the committee”) not to price carbon I suspect I would be very disappointed with the committee opinion. Obviously having agreed in the consensus I would expect the ALP and Greens to follow the opinion.
    ———————————————————

    Perhaps Labor could re-write history like the Liberals

    Labor went to the 2007 election with the dismantling of the Pacific Solution as a key policy. Imagine the howls of outrage from all the Righties if they’d “broken yet another election promise”. And it wasn’t just the Left that cheered, it was the majority of Australians. The opposition supported it, News Limited editorials at the time supported it.

  19. Windhover

    (PS: You have as much difficulty with hypotheticals as you do with understanding plain English. It is these difficulties that divide us.}

    Yeah I completely agrees, I have never understood the term “No Carbon tax under a government that I led” means that it is ok to have a carbon tax …. but whatever floats your boat.

  21. Joe Stalin Blow

    1. I am not labour nor labor
    2. I do not k ow why ‘liberals’ always excuse their homophobia by saying someone else is worse.
    3. I actually do not much like the ALP, it’s just that I know from 60 years that I have more to fear from you rightist bastards.

    Call it gay spin if you do not like it.

  25. I have to repeat. I will laugh hard if its another hung parliament.

    I hope a camera is there when Abbott gets the news if this turns out to be the result.

  27. triton I think he was around briefly earlier. I doubt MB will be going anywhere. Assuming the Coalition wins on Saturday I expect we will have a long period of MB telling us how evil News won the election and not the Coalition. We will have the ultimate in rouge/rogue polls on Saturday when it was a media driven election result.

    Finally the last real poll will remain August 2010.

  28. sprocket_ (201): “I suggest that even the scoffers read Bob Ellis’s piece today”

    Bob Ellis has always been, and will always be, off with the fairies. His drunken rants aren’t taken seriously by any one in the Labor party (at least by the ones with brains – the desperate ones will of course cling to anything). He is the Lord Monkton of Labor politics. Crazy theories, a bit of ranting – works great for the desperate devotees but ignored by everyone else.

    dovif (208): “Who think nothing of insulting the leaders of other nations
    You means copenhagen … and the infamous rat f*ker speech?”

    Sure he doesn’t mean when Rudd joked about Bush not knowing what the G20 was? Of course, that’s the G20 that Rudd “helped create” in 2008 (despite it actually being formed back in 1999).

  30. [Yeah I completely agrees, I have never understood the term “No Carbon tax under a government that I led” means that it is ok to have a carbon tax …. but whatever floats your boat]

    If you think we have a carbon tax then you clearly just don’t understand.

  31. @SabraLane: AEC update: 1,177,902 have pre-poll voted. (PLUS; as of yesterday 649,194 had returned postal votes – will update the fig when I get it)

  32. I’ve noticed that Abbott is now hedging his bets on electricity prices, rather than saying prices ‘will’ drop, he’s now saying they ‘should’ drop.

  33. zoidlord I did say 52.5/47.5 but 52/48 wouldn’t be a surprise. Just as a matter of hypothetical interest if we assume PUP is currently running at 4.5% nationally and their pregerences will flow 60/40 rather than 40/60 to Labor then the latest polling would be around Galaxy 52.5/47.5, Newspoll 53/47 and this latest ReachTel 51.5/48.5. Still not enough for Labor to win but sufficient to make for some interesting individual seat results.

  35. I think Maguire finally glimpsed reality through the bong haze and had to concede…
    thanks for the memories Bob, your alternate universe was all very fine but ultimately could not sustain life.
    Go in peace.

  39. ‘I’ve noticed that Abbott is now hedging his bets on electricity prices, rather than saying prices ‘will’ drop, he’s now saying they ‘should’ drop.’

    Abbott is a clever politician.

    Let’s hope a new generation of Labor pollies with a backbone arrives soon.

  41. ‘SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.’

    And the ALP used this brilliantly to their advantage in the debate about AS….or not….

  42. Wouldn’t it be funny if we got a hung parliament because of Liberal homophobia.

    I have two relatives who told me they were voting liberal because labor was a ‘mess’ but one, a woman, wrote to lib HQ about how she wanted to vote for them but she hated their homophobia.

    She got a patronising email saying that she should not worry it would all be alright.

    I told that was liberal speak for the final gay solution. Haha

  43. The way nsw is “apparently’ looking The libs would still win with a national 2pp 50/50. nearly every single marginal poll lately has been bigger than the national 2pp has suggested.

  46. I honestly don’t see what was sooooo horrible about the HP… it was incredibly productive, kept the leaders on their toes… Yes, too much was given to Oakeshott and Windsor – but other democracies often need to form coalitions to govern.

  48. Dee@63

    Meguire Bob said he was leaving due to all the right wing trolls complaints about his positivity.

    That’s a pity. I could do with some positivity to grasp onto. I just hope he doesn’t watch the election alone.

Comments Page 6 of 40
1 … 5 6 7 … 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *