This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
I suggest that even the scoffers read Bob Ellis’s piece today
[There is, I think, in the Labor Party, a guilty belief that we never deserve to be in power, and we need to be ‘cleansed in the wilderness’ after anything goes wrong at all. The Liberals care so little about their sins and crimes they can go on a lie into war, a war that kills that or displaces three million people and think no more about it.
]
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2013/09/04/the-state-of-plays-5/
BW I think we need to give him a week to solve something as complex as climate change. Some of the lower order issues like health, education, aged-care, economy etc may be dealt with more quickly.
It is always difficult to make a brief comment dismissing the Lib trolls here, because they mix half-truths with ignorance and lies so smoothly. Like Abbott, really.
“@alawriedejesus: For Penny Wong, equality’s personal http://t.co/8IVs1M8Ei1 Great interview with @SenatorWong, esp the “I know what my family’s worth” answer”
Albo: There might be a Liberal candidate hiding behind the tree over there
lizzie
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink
It is always difficult to make a brief comment dismissing the Lib trolls here, because they mix half-truths with ignorance and lies so smoothly. Like Abbott, really.
—————————————————–
so true.
“@ABCNews24: Deputy PM @AlboMP says Liberal candidates are in hiding, not showing up to public forums: ‘come out, come out, wherever you are!’ #ausvotes”
AussieAchmed said
Cant articulate their own Party policies
Like ALP senior ministers, who had no idea about the NT policy
Believe that asylum seekers cause traffic jams
there are a lot of english, greeks, italias, chinese, vietnamese on the road, the aboriginese would never had traffic jams. The Pacific Solution was too draconian. The PNG solution will be much tougher
Believe that by passing SSM legislation it will lead to people wanting to marry animals
What is wrong with sleeping with animals, I know of many people who sleeps in a bed with dogs and cats
Who think nothing of insulting the leaders of other nations
You means copenhagen … and the infamous rat f*ker speech?
sprocket_
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink
I suggest that even the scoffers read Bob Ellis’s piece today
There is, I think, in the Labor Party, a guilty belief that we never deserve to be in power, and we need to be ‘cleansed in the wilderness’ after anything goes wrong at all. The Liberals care so little about their sins and crimes they can go on a lie into war, a war that kills that or displaces three million people and think no more about it.
—————————————————-
They create a refugee problem then complain about refugees wanting to seek asylum in Australia.
Well I am watching in dismay from Madrid.
Here they have higher unemployment than the Great Depression yet it is certainly safer than Brisbane.b totally tolerant of gay people and couples anywhere in the city. A liberal party nightmare!!
Why the liberals hate gays is beyond me but to think all my life I have paid taxes and Howard and the libs have used it to fund gay hate schools like the one Abbott launched his educational policy from, is horrid.
The good side is that relatives who were going to vote liberal are too ashamed of their homophobia and I think I am winning them over.
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:35 am | Permalink
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about the boats.
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about the Carbon Tax hitting families for $550 a year
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about the NSW Labor Party being a corrupt organisation
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about Mike Quigley and the NBN by sacking him
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about Gillard being a terrible Prime Minister by rolling her
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about Conskis
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about having a Northern Australia plan
Why then in hells name would anyone vote for Rudd and the incompetent Labor Party if they have admitted everything Abbott has ever said was correct?
Exactly, if Abbotts always right then doesn’t that mean that Rudd has been , well, always wrong!
AussieAchmed
With so many “maroons” in parliament it will be like the movie “Idiocracy” with Tones playing the part of President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho (porn star and professional wrestler).
[The film tells the story of two ordinary people from the present who take part in a top-secret military hibernation experiment, only to awaken 500 years in the future in a dystopian society full of extremely stupid people. Advertising, commercialism, and cultural anti-intellectualism have run rampant and dysgenic pressure has resulted in a uniformly unthinking society devoid of intellectual curiosity, social responsibility, and coherent notions of justice and human rights.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy
sproket I read it. Abandoned bride, really? 🙂
swamprat
Good on you 🙂
Re the Vote Compass left-right thing at #157. Yep you can clearly see how it shows Katters seat is naturally LNP. Just like Capricornia, just slightly above it. Oh hang on it is a red dot. Duh.
Sean absorbs information at the same rate as Abbott. The graph correlates well to socially progressive to regressive, to high income seats to low income, but only so-so to ALP v LNP.
Indicative I think of the problem both parties have with their positioning. Labor is a socially conservative workers party morphing into a socially progressive, economically conventional centre party, while the LNP is changing from socially and economically progressive party into the DLP. Both parties have to send out mixed messages to keep their disparate voting blocks attached.
sprocket_@201
Yes – some home truths in the above.
Further supported by the obvious – ie the libs are winning on the politics.
They either have lousy or no policy and the electorate largely agree with them – they brush aside tory shortcomings.
Like Diaz who could not state the 6 points.
Like Abbott announcing PPL without consulting with anyone in the Party.
Like Abbott/Morrison making the Boats’R’Us announcement without consultation insulting Indonesia.
Like Abbott/Bishop/Morrison announcing that “turn the boats” will just have to be accepted by Indonesia.
Like Abbott calling the PNG Leader a liar
Like Abbott saying “no new taxes” then announcing a 1.5% increase
Like Abbott “shit happens”.
[Indicative I think of the problem both parties have with their positioning. Labor is a socially conservative workers party morphing into a socially progressive, economically conventional centre party, while the LNP is changing from socially and economically progressive party into the DLP. Both parties have to send out mixed messages to keep their disparate voting blocks attached.]
Indeed.
I long for the day when it’s progressive vs progressive.
Now I am getting Pyne blaring out of my radio about Labor committing an act of bastardry if they do not vote to repeal the carbont tax after the electionl. Pyne’s voice sickens me as much as Abbott
Perhaps instead of hosting the G20, Abbott will graciously hand over to Hyacinth (yes, I do mean Howard’s Hyacinth). We know she’s pretty good at choosing the right colour table napkins.
For right wing posters.
Americans do not do the West Wing comparison.
They know there is no allusion to that. Hopefully one of you is educated enough to take this on board
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/03/australian-prime-minister-gay-marriage_n_3860113.html?ir=Gay%20Voices&utm_campaign=090313&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-gay-voices&utm_content=Title
Or Abbott making a speech in London stating the Australian economy was the “envy” of the world yet continued his negative tirades in Australia with rants like “budget emergency” and comparing our economy to those of Greece etc.
Hypocrisy is the behaviour, Abbott is the name
[Pyne’s voice sickens me as much as Abbott]
It should be preferable for the libs to shut him up at this stage of the election you would think.
pithicus
I cant think of one coalition MP who is worth listening to. They are absolutely disgusting
@justinbarbour: Holy smokes. RT @Kieran_Gilbert: Border Mail poll: who will you vote for in Indi? 67.5% say Independent Cathy McGowan @SkyNewsAust
perhaps Pyne like mirabella, is unaware how irritating he is to the general public?
dovif at 200:
[Julia did not want a Carbon tax, Julia told Kevin to drop the ETS (KR told us).]
Dovif, the continuation of the truncated quote you no doubt “remember” – you know “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead” – made it plain that Gillard supported a price on carbon and that a vote for labor was a vote for a price on carbon. I do not know why you think that commitment does not count. Very odd.
[Julia was told by the Greens, that their support after 2010 hinges on her accepting a carbon tax (the greens glouted). Julia could have called the Greens bluff and told them to support Abbott if they want, she did not.]
I have already explained the principled reason why Gillard opted for the multiparty committee (to which the Libnats had been invited}. Do you disagree with the principled reason Gillard gave for seeking consensus?
[Julia had a “multiparty committee” controlled by the Greens, independants and ALP, while being opposed by the LNP. so there was hardly any concessus. I could have told you what the result was prior to the committee was set up]
The LNP did not even sit in the multiparty committee. In those circumstances the multiparty committee consisting of the ALP, indies and Greens represented as broad a cross-section as was possible. And there was consensus: that is an historical fact.
guytaur
Getting rid of Sophie would be a dream come true.
Senator Milne is the speaker at NPC today.
victoria
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:04 am | Permalink
Now I am getting Pyne blaring out of my radio about Labor committing an act of bastardry if they do not vote to repeal the carbont tax after the electionl. Pyne’s voice sickens me as much as Abbott
———————————————–
This is just more of the Liberal hypocrisy.
Its called maintaining the Party values and standing by Party policy when the Liberals do all they can to scuttle and stop legislation being passed by Labor.
Something different when it is happening to them.
victoria
Yes. It also shows how individual seat polls on election night can have such a significant impact on election night.
I remember when Beazley had the popular vote but lost to Howard.
Sophie is on my wish list along with Beattie. That is certainly one area where I hope BludgerTrack is wrong.
Of course for ten years I have wondered about the total political incompetence of ALP MPs.
I mean why haven’t they spent the last five years telling truths about Howard, the laziest P M since billy McMahon homophobic war criminal seller of Australian interests.
The ALP needs to inquire as to why they elect political stupids?
I include JGPM and KRPM and the entire cabinet.
The libs are enthused by lashings of irrationality and Murdoch. The ALP is enthused (haha) by a cynical right.
[Getting rid of Sophie would be a dream come true.]
This.
Would be one positive if Abbott wins.
$2.90 odds for the indipendent. Very encouaraging!
Wow. Border Mail poll has our SophieM on teh rack
[Of the 1260 responses, 80.4 per cent were Indi voters and 19.6 per cent were from Farrer (respondents could only answer candidate-specific questions for their electorate).
About 25 per cent rated Ms Ley’s performance as “satisfactory” while another 25 per cent rated it as “poor”.
But this far outstripped the results from across the Border, where 68.9 per cent (679 respondents) called Mrs Mirabella’s performance “very poor”.
A further 17.1 per cent graded her performance as “poor”; 7.6 per cent said it was “excellent”.
Ms Ley said such results were “great to get an indicator of how your work is being judged”.
Mrs Mirabella said: “The only poll that I am focused on is election day. I am working to earn the trust of voters on Saturday, as I have for the past 12 years”.
Though the surveys are a small snapshot of the electorates, if they are indication of the general mood, both candidates are facing competition.
In Indi, 67.5 per cent said they would vote for Ms McGowan, followed by Mrs Mirabella on 11 per cent, then Greens’ Jenny O’Connor on 9.7 per cent.
]
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1752231/liberals-left-behind-in-online-poll/?cs=3230
I didn’t expect Reachtel to be 52-48, let alone LNP loosing -2.3 in Primary points!
sprocket_ @ 235
Insert a Monty Burns “Excellent”
Guytaur at 225:
Thank you for the retweet. I am most grateful for the up-date on my investment in this election. Go Cathy, go. And, hopefully, may the gorgeous Sophie begone.
It seems that Palmer is steeling LNP votes.
@annajhenderson: LOTO Tony Abbott tells 2UE “last significant announcement” of funding in the campaign is about to be announced in Sydney #ausvotes @abcnews
Hard to believe the result for Farrer could be accurate. That would be one massive swing against the sitting member.
Windhover
So after this election, The LNP stacked the parliamentary committee with LNP members, FF members, maybe a PUP member, and reached “consensus” that there will be no carbon tax under a government Tony Abbott led, you will be quite happy with it and the ALP and Greens should follow the consesus.
To me, it sure seem the “consensus” of every poll post 2010 seem to be against the carbon tax
zoomster is going to be a very happy lady if the indie gets up over Sophie.
But BK will be gutted. 👿
zoidlord 239
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink
It seems that Palmer is steeling LNP votes.
I think you are correct – In the lower house these will end up with the Libs (including many ex-Labor) due to How to vote cards.
In the Senate these will likely end up with PUP or another minor party.
No good news for Labor in PUP polling well.
Corbett should be sacked from the reserve bank for making partisan comments. It’s an indekebdenr body
PUP seems to be taking votes off every other party at present including the LNP, Labor and KAP. Makes for some interesting results on Saturday in QLD.
Sophie is a perfect example of someone who should never be encouarged to run for a safe seat
joe blow
polling has revealed 62% of preferences of PUP go to Labor.
Yes – and perhaps we should sack every ex-Union leader who sits on a government board or committee, eh?
[So after this election, The LNP stacked the parliamentary committee with LNP members, FF members, maybe a PUP member, and reached “consensus” that there will be no carbon tax under a government Tony Abbott led, you will be quite happy with it and the ALP and Greens should follow the consesus.]
I wouldn’t base my decision on the fact that it had been produced by a committee of parliamentarians (different to a parliamentary committee by the way) but would look a the merits of the recommendations.
Attack the merits rather than the people proposing it.