This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
[@Kieran_Gilbert: Sources from the major parties tell me their polling suggests Sophie Mirabella likely to lose the Victorian seat of Indi @SkyNewsAust”]
Wonder if this is the bad news to sure up those planning on a protest vote…of course it could also help the undecideds vote independent, kind of a bandwagon effect
jeffemu
Thanks
“@David_Scutt: Australia Q2 GDP +0.6% QQ, +2.6% YY, markets expected +0.5% & +2.4% respectively #ausbiz”
@abcnews: Australian households would be about $3,800 a year richer in 2020 with super-fast broadband like NBN http://t.co/VECnvOq2r4 #knowthestory
victoria
And it’s obvious that either Kev and Therese are a ‘real’ couple (which I believe) or they’re better actors.
It adds to the flakiness of Abbott, especially regarding his attacks on JG, but it seems we’re not supposed to know he isn’t perfect.
[Wonder if this is the bad news to sure up those planning on a protest vote…of course it could also help the undecideds vote independent, kind of a bandwagon effect]
A tiny story mentioned briefly on Sky News would have next to a 0 impact on voting intentions in a single seat.
153
lefty e
[He wasn’t that disciplined, and didn’t run a good campaign either: the media just didn’t apply any pressure.]
Count me among those who don’t see any particularly notable discipline or political genius at work either, beyond standard cesspit level Goebbelsian propaganda tactics, including some very dirty deals with media barons to protect him.
354 – everyone in Canberra knows the Abbott arrangement. It’s kind of odd for such a gossipy place, but when it’s serious and deals with people and families… it’s quite discrete and respectful.
PMKR presser
Happy NBN workers as background
[Abbott is a clever politician.]
Translation: Abbott is a more shameless liar and sell-out.
lizzie
The Rudd family do genuinely appear connected to each other. Abbott not so much
guytaur @ 350
Correct
J341983
I hate it when “everybody knows” something that I don’t. 😉
I’d like some facts.
The ABC needs to be gutted of its Liberal luvvies
[The 24 hour saturation reporting of Roger Corbett’s opinions, three days from election is perhaps the most despicable single act by ABC.]
363… as I said, discretion is a big deal here 😛
Good morning all (not much morning left actually).
I haven’t much time for PB with campaigning on top of other activities but had to come online to check BKs recommended reading. Thanks BK.
I also started to catch up on a backlog of emails and read some interesting things.
A couple of the Liberal fifth columnists here (the likes of Player One, briefly and confessions) have suggested Rudd will back off on Carbon Pricing, but Rudd has stood firm and given no indication of this at all. Hey, but let’s not spoil a good lie. 😡
OTOH, I read this:
[Labor has said many times it will not allow Abbott to tear up its carbon price legislation, the way WorkChoices was torn up during Kevin Rudd’s first stint as PM.
Doubts emerged in May that they would hold the line on that – Bill Shorten was, according to a number of my sources, lobbying caucus members to walk away from carbon pricing if Labor was defeated as expected at the 2013 election (Is this the end of Labor’s CarbonChoices? May 17).
That assertion was angrily denied by Shorten, and nobody can predict for sure whether or not such a backdown will happen. That does rely, to an extent, on the scale of the walloping Labor receives in the lower house. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/31/election/huge-price-abbotts-minority-rule?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=406546&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=
Well he would deny it wouldn’t he?
Workers in background nodding.
More impressive than one or two politicians.
It’s in The Australian so it must be true 😉
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/indi-row-dire-for-mirabella/story-fn9qr68y-1226710079744
[ONE of Tony Abbott’s closest allies is in “dire” trouble in her regional Victorian electorate, forcing senior Liberals to campaign on Sophie Mirabella’s behalf in an attempt to head off a Nationals-backed independent.
Ms Mirabella is the Coalition’s industry spokeswoman and one of the highest profile members of the frontbench, but she is facing a revolt in her northeastern Victorian electorate of Indi, which she holds with a margin of 9 per cent.
Senior Liberals have been arguing about sending the Opposition Leader into the electorate in a final-week bid to turn back the tide in favour of Ms Mirabella, whose popularity in the seat has dropped away in recent years.
A sophisticated campaign by local conservative independent Cathy McGowan has forced the Liberal Party to mount a rearguard action in a seat that normally would be considered safe.
Former federal treasurer Peter Costello was in the electorate yesterday, but Ms Mirabella’s office said they were unaware of any trip being planned by Mr Abbott.
A visit by Mr Abbott would be seen as a desperate act, given that the final week of campaigning in a winning side is often used to try to maximise the vote in winnable seats rather than to try to protect what should be safe electorates.
]
lefty
[Here’s the getup ad : censored by the opponents of free speech in the corporate media]
Good ad but for what? Aren’t Getup a front for the Greens? Why spend money to say “vote what you think not what newspapers think”.
guytaur @ 350
UFO sightings are also a popular regular for the NT News. I was up there during the last election and did not notice is to be particularly partisan. Mind you I was working long hours and only bought it for the Wicking cartoon and the “Only in the NT ” stories 🙂
‘Our ‘mainstream’ media – including the public broadcasters – has been systematically and very effectively captured and corrupted by a small and very ruthless group of corporatists and theocratically minded hard right ideologues. It has been a textbook case of subversion carried out in the broad daylight of an (allegedly) open, robust democracy.’
Very well said.
Just wait while these particular chickens come home to roost.
The only good bit will be the squeals from ABC journos who don’t get a job with Murdoch, and who have systematically promoted the coalition for the past 5 years plus.
J341983
It worries me that TA has to keep up the physical exercise to remain calm. Added to his tendency to be attracted to young blondes (and make it a little too obvious) this creates a narrative which would suggest a boiling pot, so to speak.
‘Good ad but for what? Aren’t Getup a front for the Greens? Why spend money to say “vote what you think not what newspapers think”.’
Way to completely miss the point by a country mile, idiot.
Ruddock and Bronwyn Bishop are both 70. If either of them becomes a minister under Abbott, they will be the oldest federal ministers since Earle Page retired as Health Minister in 1956, aged 76. The oldest ever was Billy Hughes, who was Attorney-General in the Fadden government in 1941, aged 79. (Rex Connor kept his age a secret but in fact he was only 68 in 1975.)
“@ABCNews24: Rudd: What I fear is that Mr Abbott’s Australia would be one where those who need help least, in fact get the most help #ausvotes”
[Rudd: What I fear is that Mr Abbott’s Australia would be one where those who need help least, in fact get the most help ]
Perhaps then you should not have worked so hard to get rid of JGPM. No point whingeing about it now.
“@TheKouk: The Australian economy is just terrific. Decent growth, low inflation, low unemployment, AAA credit rating, low debt”
Just 3 more sleeps till we get rid of Rudd 🙂
“@GrogsGamut: Longest run of positive annual productivity growth since 2002.”
Oh the humanity!! 😀
[Sources from the major parties tell me their polling suggests Sophie Mirabella likely to lose the Victorian seat of Indi ]
bemused
[…have suggested Rudd will back off on Carbon Pricing, but Rudd has stood firm and given no indication of this at all. Hey, but let’s not spoil a good lie. 😡 ]
He won’t back off before the election, and after it it won’t matter what he says because he won’t be the oppn leader.
I would be appalled if the party backs off, which would amount to rolling over to Abbott’s wish. They have to stand up to this thug, FFS, not be cowering wimps.
davidwh@376
Getting rid of JGPM was the only thing that gave Labor any chance at all. Unfortunately, it came too late.
Of course the original mistake was in June 2010.
[Just 3 more sleeps till we get rid of Rudd]
Only downside is we get lumbered with Abbott for some time after. Please make it short.
Diogenes
[
Oh the humanity!! 😀
]
It’s all right. Should it come to pass the PB lounge will all be there to support BK during his time of grief.
Thanks for the polite rebuke Bemused old comrade 😉
Diogenes@380
Just goes to show… not all news is bad. 😆
[The ABC needs to be gutted of its Liberal luvvies
The 24 hour saturation reporting of Roger Corbett’s opinions, three days from election is perhaps the most despicable single act by ABC.]
There is something dodgy about his appearance on Lateline. Did the ABC randomly ask him to appear because he is a prominent businessman? Or was there some arrangement for him to appear three days before the election? Did the ABC know what he was going to say? If so, why did they not also invite a prominent person with a contrary viewpoint?
Corbett’s Age and SMH online mastheads proclaim they are “Independent. Always”. This sounds as believable as Murdoch’s Fox News which is “fair and balanced”.
triton@381
So you still think Labor will win?
If we lose, I don’t think there will be a back down on anything. Abbott has changed the rules.
A Hung Parliament and Sophie Mirabella looses seat 😀
“@sspencer_63: @Colvinius Should the ABC have disclosed that Roger Corbett is a Liberal Party member?”
davidwh@385
What do your mum and sister say?
@Pollytics: Productivity Crisis! o_O RT @GrogsGamut: Annual Productivity Growth (5 year rolling average) http://t.co/TJugKmbrWx
SMH is independent alright, independent of good journalism, balance, impartiality and good writing.
Gillard will be remembered as the worst Prime Minister Australia has ever had.
Rudd will be remembered as the most disloyal, incompetent and dividing Prime Minister Australia has ever had.
[Of course the original mistake was in June 2010.]
The original mistake was in December 2006, when Rudd rolled Beazley. I supported it at the time so I’m not claiming superior wisdom, but in retrospect it was a disastrous decision. Rudd’s peculiarities were known, but it was assumed, wrongly, that they could be managed.
Bloody Rudd
[Australia’s economic growth has defied forecasts to accelerate slightly, with the nation’s gross domestic product increasing by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter.
The result takes the annual GDP rate to 2.6 per cent, and increase from 2.5 per cent in the previous quarter.]
Gillard is also to blame for the economy not crashing.
Actually it is tony Abbott who has failed to deliver his promises on this. He promised us Labor would ruin the country, yet the economy remains stubbornly buoyant.
Davidwh
Thanks for the news about Sophie Mirrabella in Indie. No matter what else happens on election night, it would be wonderful to see her have more time to spend with her family. Her family may have other views though.
bemused
[So you still think Labor will win?]
No, Labor will lose, and from that moment Rudd’s view on anything will cease to be relevant.
The ABC is a festering sore.
Three days before an election invite prominent businessman and LIBERAL PARTY MEMBER to dump on Rudd and promote it on all your news outlets for the next 24 hours.
Bastards deserve what’s coming to them.
geoffrey 331
Spot on!!
Particularly the ‘unpolled’ under 30s who are most aware and annoyed at the NBN bullshit from Truffles, and who think Abbott is Neanderthal.
Sabra Lane @SabraLane 53s
On my calculations: that’s 13.3% of the electorate who have already voted.