This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
Psephos@395
Oh if you want to go back that far, I will go further.
Rudd should have got the leadership instead of Latham who certainly was a nutter as anyone could see at the time. And plenty did.
Re Corbett, I was annoyed with that this mornign. Who cares? Does Kevin Rudd comment on changes in the BHPB Board? No, because it is business, not politics.
Corbett has an obvious business motive to want a change in government, hoping ot get different tax treatment from the new one.
As for leadership in Labor, I have hated it in terms of the damage to the party, but neither Gillard nor Rudd has ever stopped running the country, which has been well run. My complaint has been the leadership story has distracted from Labor selling its success in running the country.
There were Liberal leadership tensions between Peakock and Howard in the 80s, and between Howard and Costello in office in the 90s and 00s. Did Roger Corbett ever once complain about that stopping them from running the country?
Corbett’s remarks are partisan, irrelevant and biased.
ltep
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 11:59 am | Permalink
Just 3 more sleeps till we get rid of Rudd
Only downside is we get lumbered with Abbott for some time after. Please make it short.
ahaha…it’s lose lose isn’t it.
poroti
[It’s all right. Should it come to pass the PB lounge will all be there to support BK during his time of grief.]
What about Australian manufacturing? How will they ever cope without her as Minister for Industry?
We might as well shut down the country and give up if Sophie doesn’t have that firm hand of the till of our economy.
@ABCtech: It’s just plain wrong: A full refutation of the Coalition’s $94 billion Labor NBN costing http://t.co/GPneuK5SdB #NBN
Bemused my mum thinks they are all a rabble but will vote Labor as she has done her entire life. My sister was wavering when Gillard was PM but has firmed up particularly since Rudd supported same sex marriage. My sister is gay, she is also happy a lot of the time.
“It worries me that TA has to keep up the physical exercise to remain calm. Added to his tendency to be attracted to young blondes (and make it a little too obvious) this creates a narrative which would suggest a boiling pot, so to speak.”
The “more dire need” line from “Good morning, Vietnam” springs to mind.
triton@397
I wouldn’t be so sure.
Anyway, it is up to caucus and I wouldn’t argue about what they may or may not do at this stage when we don’t even know the composition.
I think Rudd will be credited with running a good campaign.
May I suggest Sinidonis would make an excellent Industry Minister.
dwh
May I suggest Sinodinos won’t be in parliament
So who should we be listening to adrian?
Has any pollster quantified how the lack of landline phones amongst younger voters affects polling results?
Silky
No. Just lots of guesses including the young part
guytaur that is indeed a possibility but then it would be an unfortunate loss to the government. That is certainly not on my wish list.
But for the sake of my question can we assume he does get eleted.
“Has any pollster quantified how the lack of landline phones amongst younger voters affects polling results?”
No chance! The polls could be wrong!
O Shock! O Horror!
PMA – I can recommend some good music. Much more enlightening than the rubbish dredged up by the MSM.
I’m pretty sure Bob Katter is wrong with his quote.
[“Adolf Hitler … said quote: `You can tell a lie long enough and consistently enough and constantly enough, people will believe that it’s true, even though it’s a lie’.
“That is a direct quote, I think it’s from page 213 of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf, I mean these boys (the coalition) have been doing a bit of home reading.”]
Can’t belive rudd pays for private polling of his own seat….
dwh
I an not so sure Sinodinos would want to work in a Labor Government
Centre what are your latest thoughts on seat predictions, we are getting mighty close now…..
Centre what are your latest thoughts on seat predictions, we are getting mighty close now…..
Yes it was in fact Goebells.
If Sophie gets tossed and Sinodinos loses to Pauline Hanson, surely any thinking person would agree that Hanson should be the Industry Minister.
Well the Abbott Broadcasting Corporation is doing itself proud with their Abbott boosting and dragging down of the ALP campaign on ‘The World Today’.
Shock, horror, Rudd visited Hotham electorate.
More shock horror, the campaign t-shirts used as props were collected off people for re-use when filming finished. A sure sign of impending disaster.
Next story, Rudd could lose his seat and on it goes.
guytaur all semantics aside my question was asked in the context of an Abbott government without Mirabella. But I think you know that already 🙂
Wow… just Wow… ABC doing behind the scenes look at political phone call centres.
If they ring you up and you say you are voting Labor… afterwards they hit a little bell and everyone else in the call centre claps.
FFS… this is what it has come to for Labor you are just a number and a little bell
[My sister is gay, she is also happy a lot of the time.]
We are capable of happiness from time to time.
davidwh@422
Your choice of reading is concerning. 😛
Wow… just Wow… ABC doing behind the scenes look at political phone call centres.
If they ring you up and you say you are voting Labor… afterwards they hit a little bell and everyone else in the call centre claps.
FFS… this is what it has come to for Labor you are just a number and a little bell
Hahaa, well we can safely say noone in the call centre would have sore hands….
[You can tell a lie long enough and consistently enough and constantly enough, people will believe that it’s true, even though it’s a lie]
and the scary part is that after a period of time many people can be informed of the truth and still believe the lie.
[Your choice of reading is concerning]
Google is my friend 🙂
[If they ring you up and you say you are voting Labor… afterwards they hit a little bell and everyone else in the call centre claps.
FFS… this is what it has come to for Labor you are just a number and a little bell
]
Every time I think my opinion of you could not be any lower you reach new depths …
dwh
IF Abbott forms government industry will be a poison chalice. That is why Mirabella has it now.
That call centre must be where Ellis gets his information from. Polling based on total number of rings.
@bengrubb: Tony Abbott creeps out Big Brother housemates http://t.co/yZQQIgEWSj
How to win the youth vote. Not
Guytaur if we keep going around in circles like this we could end up giddy.
ABC just fessed up that Corbett is a Lib and Senator X is having a go at them about the Corbett interview and it’s timing.
bemused
[I think Rudd will be credited with running a good campaign.]
Are you serious? He’s run a dreadful campaign. Until now I haven’t heard anyone claim he’s run even an okay campaign.
The most important thing IMO will be holding firm on the carbon price. Abbott has given them enough ammunition:
– He hammered Gillard on “integrity”, i.e., don’t go to an election saying one thing and do the opposite after it. Well, now he is asking Labor to do exactly that
– He gave a “pledge in blood” to get rid of it; therefore he does not need Labor to do that
This would be my first question to Abbott PM.
[ “Madam Speaker (B Bishop), my question is to the prime minister. On Melbourne radio he gave a “pledge in blood” to abolish the carbon price. How will he deliver on that pledge?” ]
That would simultaneously stick it right up Abbott, let him know that he is in for a fight, and announce that the ALP is a party of principle, which is precisely the message it needs to get across after years of chaos. Also, Labor should welcome a DD election. Let Abbott try it and let’s see what minor-party mess in the Senate he ends up with.
[The ABC is a festering sore.
Three days before an election invite prominent businessman and LIBERAL PARTY MEMBER to dump on Rudd and promote it on all your news outlets for the next 24 hours.]
I seem to remember that in 2007 Howard made the ABC set up a committee to ensure that everything the ABC broadcast was ‘strictly balanced’. This committee seems to have been defunct for the past several years.
I don’t know of even an LNP voter who doesn’t find Abbott ‘creepy’… that’s kind of a given.
[Every time I think my opinion of you could not be any lower you reach new depths …]
*DING!!!*
Hows that make you feel? Thats what Labor thinks about you..
bemused in balance the ABC did spend 20 minutes interviewing Teresa this morning and copped a bit of flack for it. Did you know Kevin is a caring and loving person?
Sean – considering what your opinion is of anyone who doesn’t think, act, look like you… bit of a pot-kettle moment.
NPC time. Senator Milne
Just for fun (?), I’ve been looking at the Menzies House website. You will all be interested to know it is NOT affiliated with any political party. However
[Having said that, our ‘broad church’ does not go as far as including socialism but instead supports the mainstream concepts of freedom, individuality and capitalism.]
[When you submit an article, we have a few guidelines that we would like you to follow:
(I picked two goodies)
Check your article for spelling and grammar. We try to uphold a very high standard at Menzies House, so make sure you proof read your article. Often it is helpful to have someone else review it first.
Try and make some sort of logical point. Motherhood articles and general spiels on pet issues are fine in some places, but here at MH we prefer to stimulate debate based more on intellect than emotion.]
Wish the “non-socialist” posters here would try to stick to these point too 🙂
Less than 78 hours to the end. Be kind to each other people.
What do Labor voters think about an ALP Call Centre dinging a bell for people they say will vote ALP?
Sort of like making a “Sale” except an attack on the intelligence of their voters… we conned another one BOSS! *DING!*
The correct “big lie” quote is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie
It’s nothing like the version most people think they know.
There is a sleeper times have not been rational for years. Awake !
Sleeper awake