ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 33 of 40
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  2. [ Paaptsef I am sure our new masters will start a re-education program.

    A little bit of Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman, Ronald Reagan, John Winston to help with the national learning and healing after the downfall. ]
    but they are all losers now camped out in a hovel somewhere in barcelona or Athens or London

  5. Confessions

    [I’d imagine it would be hard to find Labor MPs willing to front.]

    These election night ads have been running for a while.

    I wouldn’t front for reasons other than an imminent defeat.

  8. lol – as lovely as that would be to see the Libs “OMG guyz… this election is already ovah!! Tony haz 104 seat in da bag!!!”… just realised how close this is the Lib posters anyway…

  17. [lol – as lovely as that would be to see the Libs “OMG guyz… this election is already ovah!! Tony haz 104 seat in da bag!!!”… just realised how close this is the Lib posters anyway…]

    I recall Antony Green at one point (admittedly before the leadership change) saying the result could well be known before 7pm.

  18. There is a clear difference in this election between the two men one is filled with hate and resentment for his fellow man,[ example lowering the wages of carers who work in nursing homes?} stopping the NBN which is for education and the future of our children, why?

    His education policy is non existant, and his foreign affairs credential skills could be said to be nill
    {bad v bad] have not heard that since I was in the grade 2 at my primary school we would play at goodies and badies,, but for abbott every thing must be bad, re badies and badies.

    Then we have kevin who wants to keep the country vibrant and youthful , youthful you say yes I am 65 and when I see kevin I get a spring in my feet and feel happy when I see the other face I dispair.
    Kevin will see us through any crisis that could arrive, I dont feel abbott has that ability.

    Kevin is modern in his thinking q and a a defying moment I thought, about time someone stood for good sence, we could take kevs lead and stand up to bigots. Thank you kevin,, I feel a stronger person for kevs leader ship last night and beyond in these coming years.

    So the decision for this family is easy,,, vote for a person who seems to be filled with hate,

    or vote for Kevin a man of tomorrow with good values and who cares about his fellow man and our welfare all of us, pensioners the poor the afflicted and the disheartened and education for the future so people do not feel disheartened,

    What an easy decision it is to come down on the side of goodness for us all

  19. People helping people…something Abbott and Liberals would not understand

    Sweden offers residency to all Syrian refugees

    3 Sep 2013, 10:03

    Swedish migration authorities have ruled that all Syrian asylum seekers who have come to Sweden will be granted permanent residency in light of the worsening conflict in Syria.

    Sweden offers residency to all Syrian refugees

    Sweden is the first country in the EU to offer permanent residency to refugees from Syria, news agency TT reported.

    The decision covers all asylum seekers from Syria who have been granted temporary residency in Sweden for humanitarian protection. They will now receive permanent residence permits, the Swedish Migration Board (Migrationsverket) announced on Tuesday.

    Previously, around half of Syrian asylum seekers had been granted permanent residency, with the remaining half receiving three-year residence permits.

    The assessment is based on whether a person has an individual or general need for protection. As the situation in Syria has deteriorated and is now “extreme and marked by general violence” with no solution in sight, the agency has judged the poor security situation in Syria to be permanent.

    The decision means that the roughly 8,000 Syrians who have temporary residency in Sweden will now be able to stay in the country permanently.

    They will also have the right to bring their families to Sweden.

    While Malek Laesker, vice-chair of the Syrian Arabian Cultural Association of Sweden (Syrisk arabiska kulturföreningen i Sverige), welcomed the decision, he also warned it could create problems.

    “The fact that Sweden is the first country to open its arms is both positive and negative,” he told the TT news agency, explaining that it may be a boon for the growing people-smuggling market.

    He also expressed concerns that the move will add more fuel to the already inflamed debate about Sweden’s immigration policies.

    “We already have a crisis around that issue in Sweden. I hope that our politicians solve it in a nice way,” he said.

    In 2012 and 2013, a total of 14,700 Syrian asylum seekers came to Sweden. Together with Germany, Sweden is the EU country which has accepted the highest number of asylum seekers from the war-torn country.

    In its statement, the Migration Board warned that asylum seekers who may be guilty of war crimes or crimes against humanity for their actions in Syria would lose their right to be classified as refugees or in need of protection.

  20. guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:51 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    No they are a party that does not view the world through the ALP lens

    —-no they are a party that lacks political acumen, and cannot do the job of saving planet that is their goal. they had the chalice and didn’t know what it was, and they keep seeking for it. doomed arthurian knights in search of healing of planet

  24. it is inconceivable that midst all turmoil and risks at present that milne stands tall on 2009 and admit no regret or apology at all! amazing! she is an amateur and arrogant joke

  26. @paulkidd: Don’t be so hard on yourself RT @mirandadevine: There really is some desperate despicable filthy defamatory garbage on twitter

  29. Dee:

    Either another poll or a vested interest business type to tell us how prime ministerial Abbott is, and how bad Labor is.

    The bootsrapping of Corbett worked a treat today. 🙁

  30. [@paulkidd: Don’t be so hard on yourself RT @mirandadevine: There really is some desperate despicable filthy defamatory garbage on twitter]

    😀 😀

  32. J341983

    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    AA – aren’t they worried about traffic congestion?
    ——————————————————–

    No, they had a government that invested in public transport unlike Australia who had Howard and the Liberals who invest in roads so Tony can ride his bike and claim travel allowances

  33. [Just days out from Saturday’s Federal Election and the mining industry is quietly confident of a change of government.

    At this week’s annual convention of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies in Perth, there was an air of quiet anticipation.

    The delegates, who belong to small and medium-sized miners and explorers, overwhemingly support the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s plan, to repeal both the mining and carbon taxes.

    But the chief executive of AMEC, Simon Bennison, says the two-day convention is not an election rally for the Coalition.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-04/miners-hoping-for-a-change-of-government/4935938?section=wa

    *Nearly chokes on a mouthful of coffee*

  34. Phwoar.

    What a waste of good time.

    Just watched Kitchen Cabinet with T Abbott.

    What a droog. Couldn’t even make a salad.
    Has the personality of a wet tissue.
    Can barely formulate thoughts.
    Without stuttering.

    And that terrifying pseudo-laugh cackle.
    He really did have a deprived childhood.

    And he can’t even give merit where it’s due.
    What a waste of space.

  37. [Sweden offers residency to all Syrian refugees]

    And how many has Russia taken? 1?

    How Wikileaks can favour Russia over Sweden in terms of human rights beggars belief.

    Assange is a lunatic.

  38. Anthony Albanese ‏@AlboMP 2 Sep
    Libs have boycotted #Grayndler candidates forum hosted by local paper every election since 1996 #toriesinhiding

  40. Oakeshott Country@1584

    I don’t think so Carey.
    They have kept quiet in the vain hope that Rudd would keep their bums on the green leather. When it becomes obvious that not only has that not happened but Rudd has indeed ensured their unemployment the results will be both instantaneous and spectacular

    Oh you sound so happy!

    A true Labor man.

    Bullshit! You are part of the Liberal ‘fifth column’ with briefly, Player One and confessions.

  41. OK, waiting for the ‘apologists’? Just how many times does Mr Abbott have to treat women as frivolous before commentators admit a problem?

  42. guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:57 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    You just posted the ALP view beautifully

    ——- o i might misunderstand. then you agree?

  45. steve annabelle
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
    It is interesting (and reassuring to me) to read comments from ALP supporters ready to slit their wrists over the likely result. As a Liberal supporter I am going through all sorts of delirious thoughts:
    1. Is it possible that Meguire Bob is an intelligent perceptive person and not just a delusional troll?
    2. Is the Reachtel poll showing a late sharp swing rather than a margin of error adjustment?
    3. Might Kevin Rudd’s spiel to the BB house sway young uninformed voters or are they so switched off that they didn’t watch?
    Everyone says its over and yet I will not rest easy until the polls are closed. The next 3 days cannot come quickly enough.

    —- this has never felt like last nsw state election, and polling doesn’t suggest. dont think its over. rainbows come when least suspected during storms

  46. mr bowe vague encouragement whatever that mean u don’t know us labor people u really have no idea

    vague encouragement have u walked a mile in the shoes of the afflicted the lame or the disheartened there is nothing vague about that

    on the net labor people there is so many likes and shares millons of them go for It the next few days are crucial

    its only us that do social media well
    ,get out of here do what I did today I ran off copies of the ross gittens piece about how abbott will take away ALL YOUR TAX BREAKS IN BUSINESS YES ALL OF THEM

    over here we don’t have anything but Murdoch I went to my local value plus store showed my friend the owner she went white left to make phone calls

    I then went to the butchers shop they did nt know that either then to the ,hairdressers,, they didn’t know
    abbott was going to take away their business entitlements either,,, u see he getting rid of the mining tax so ordinary business will pick up the tab, read mr gittins piece you will be very scared,

    nothing vague about that folks thats a fact

    get out there print off that story about the tax hand deliver it like I did,

    I stopped young people in the street and ask them to get on face book
    face book share and like go to the labor face book pick up the adds and do either face book or email print out hand deliver

    tell them a vote for ABBOTT is a vote for w Rupert MURDOCH would abbott ring uncle Rupert every time a decision is needed
    today effort by the media not to have the get up add on shows our democracy is just about stuffed, so if you are a liberal think of a one off life time vote, to labor to get rid of our country yes out country being controlled from else where

    nothing too vague about that,,
    ,

  49. J341983
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:49 pm | PERMALINK
    lol – as lovely as that would be to see the Libs “OMG guyz… this election is already ovah!! Tony haz 104 seat in da bag!!!”… just realised how close this is the Lib posters anyway…

    —– this refrain has been going on for over three years. it cant be right, please it cant be right. even if now the bastards have had to wait a looonng time.

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