This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
According to whom River?
It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on facebook.
It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on faecebook.
guytaur
both major parties esp lab now subject to profound self scrutiny and lots coming from greens but greens offer no self scrutiny, being lofty and above fray. they have been a major factor in current instability, everyone knows that. it is not that their policies are wrong, but in 2010 and 2009 hat struck out – twice. they owe an apology to australian people – that is question of honor.
@mysay
How successful has your ‘on the street’ campaign been? Because I get the feeling you would scare the shit out of most people you meet.
Just a feeling I get.
Scarpat
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on facebook.
It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on faecebook.
—————————————————-
more suppositories????
I hope all those on Facebook realise the world can see not only did they vote Liberal they got others to do so
Also River, Facebook and twitter are subject to fake users.
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/fake-twitter-followers-for-tony-abbott-being-investigated-by-liberal-party/story-fnho52qo-1226695009136
a student of mine just sent me this link http://dontbeafuckingidiot.herokuapp.com/
..there’s hope!!!!
bemused
[Bullshit! You are part of the Liberal ‘fifth column’ with briefly, Player One and confessions.]
Give it a bloody rest, will you!
You were never accused of being a Liberal ‘fifth column’ist while you pedalled Griffin’s white-anting all over PB.
Other Labor voters do have a right to an opinion.
Just like Abbott, you cannot say one good thing about Gillard.
It’s okay from him. He’s her political opponent. It’s not okay from you. But when you continually bag Gillard, you alienate a lot of the party.
So, shut the eff up, pal if you want to at least save the base.
Cos, if you don’t stop it, I for one will not bother turning up to hand out HTV cards on Saturday.
And any angst, I will direct to Alan Griffin and yourself.
[quote]2.According to whom River?[/quote]
It seems to be doing the rounds in the fairfax press. The last place I saw it was the Canberra Times.
[@mysay
How successful has your ‘on the street’ campaign been? Because I get the feeling you would scare the shit out of most people you meet.
Just a feeling I get.]
Nasty and uncalled for.
Withdraw, River.
LNP trying facebook now the twitter botts didn’t work out.
Aussie Achmed,
Indeed!
[ Bullshit! You are part of the Liberal ‘fifth column’ with briefly, Player One and confessions. ]
As usual, you are completely wrong, bemused.
@River/1660
So they moved to Facebook, after being caught with fake twitter accounts.
Yeh..I was Realteched tonight in Darwin
geoffrey
Not according to their view. They are right too as instabiity has been solely a Labor leadership thing.
The Greens are not the Labor party and do not have to act as if they are just a faction.
Well yes, the Libs got caught on twitter buying 60,000 twitter followers. You can do the same on Facebook… speaking of…
1658 – this has been on facebook all day and sending the link via email.
Is there a war on facebook?
[quote]Nasty and uncalled for.
Withdraw, River.[/quote]
Not nasty at all. ‘My say’ seems to be a little … over the top with his passion. I hope he’s calmer when he approaches people on the street.
kezza2@1659
Yeah, right. Go for it.
Tell someone who cares.
Kezza:
[What a waste of good time. Just watched Kitchen Cabinet with T Abbott.]
My tweets this evening on point:
[Annabel Crabb@annabelcrabb
And could you also please watch #kitchencabinet at 8pm on ABC1 and I promise next week I will shut up thank you.
…
Annabel Crabb@annabelcrabb
@fran_b__ would probably be easier for you just to watch it, on the whole
And from another poster:
[Andrew White@litbright
@fran_b__ @annabelcrabb Fran, you know you want to watch. However, I’m happy to summarise it all later so you can decide whether to iView.
Some thought I was too harsh, and insufficiently tolerant of lightheartedness. I described this as a demand for sugar on fairyfloss.
[It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on facebook.]
Oh no! Not Facebook!
Having a coffee this afternoon when four middle aged men sat down at the table next to me….the first words spoken were…..’the NBN is the best one…inaudible….’
Player One@1664
Just calling it as I see it.
Scrap Cat,
A clear winner.
[quote]Oh no! Not Facebook![/quote]
That’s right, facebook!
All the young voters now belong to Abbott!
*Hohohohoho*
What do people make of this?
These are the postal votes on the AEC website, admittedly pinched from a Catallaxy post but I’m assuming the figures are accurate.
[In the 2010 election the following numbers of postal votes were submitted by each party:
-Greens: 7 (0%)
-ALP: 254,678 (50.1%)
-Coalition: 242,035 (48.5%)
-Others: 2,957 (0.6%)
In this election so far (and this is unlikely to change by much with only a couple of days left):
-Greens: 1019 (0%)
-ALP: 151,516 (27.2%)
-Coalition: 399,800 (71.8%)
-Others: 4663 (0.8%).]
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2013/09/04/guest-post-john-comnenus-has-an-electoral-wipe-out-already-occurred/
Facebook is the new ‘real world’.
PO:
Ignore bemused.
Reality is starting to (finally) dawn on him.
@River/1677
I call fake users, after being caught the first time.
Your one of those that believe everything in the media – bwahaha.
guytaur
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 10:19 pm | PERMALINK
geoffrey
Not according to their view. They are right too as instabiity has been solely a Labor leadership thing.
The Greens are not the Labor party and do not have to act as if they are just a faction.
——— leadership thing was caused with collapse of ets in 2009 … the spectre of greens and liberal defeating an environmental bill will never be forgotten. nor will coercion on tax and not ets. greens love parasitically stirring trouble but taking no responsibility – and not even offering an articulate or honest account of themselves. they are not a third party (democrats were) but rebellious adolescent child of labor with an identity crisis who want to flog the home belongings, have all they demand, reduce home to despair, and still be loved and understood at same time.
bluepill@1056
Your four premises were:
1. Anthropogenic climate change is genuine and measurable
2. Vaccination for all contagious diseases is safe and necessary to protect populations
3. GM food poses absolutely no health risk to people who consume it
4. Evolution is verifiable and proven empirically
Your claim seems to be that if someone rejects one of these premises, then they are cherry-picking the science, since 60% of scientists agree with the statements.
First, it seems that unless you have actually polled scientists with the exact wording, your argument is not really valid. I personally know at least one senior mainstream biochemist who would disagree with your point 3.
However, even if the points are indeed “supported” by 60% of scientists as you say, it does not necessarily follow that one disagrees with their interpretation of the science, since it’s possible to also disagree with the wording of the question.
For example, I’d agree with the four statements if by “agree” you mean “broad agreement with the overall sentiment”. However, if instead by “agree” you mean “narrowly agree with the precise wording” then I’d disagree with points 2 and 3. My reasons for doing so are somewhat pedantic, of course, but they illustrate the problem with your argument which is that “disagree” is not a precisely defined term.
For 2., I’d say that vaccination is unsafe if you were to use the same needles for multiple people (as just one example). While this is not current practice, it’s a possible way that vaccination could be unsafe.
For 3., I’d say that it’s possible (but very unlikely) for GM foods to pose a risk. Your understanding of digestion in your post @1484 isn’t really complete – it’s perfectly possible for proteins to move into the body without being broken down. Take prion proteins, for example. If you eat meat containing prion proteins, you will develop BSE (mad cow disease) and die. Similarly, if genetic modification added a protein to food that inadvertently behaved like a prion protein, then when you eat that food it will pass into your body and kill you. The risk of this happening is very, very low, but not zero – and since the question said “absolutely no health risk” I’m going to disagree with it.
Does my disagreement with the (hypopthetical) 60%+ of scientists points 2. and 3. mean I am rejecting science based on what I want to believe? No – I actually support vaccination and GM foods (with some safeguards). It could mean, instead, that I am taking a different (narrower) interpretation of “agreement” and “support” to the (broader) interpretation that the scientists chose.
Which is not to say that people do not pick and choose what science they believe in – of course, many do. I’m just saying that your argument doesn’t necessarily support the notion for any person who happens to disagree with your statements.
[quote]These are the postal votes on the AEC website, admittedly pinched from a Catallaxy post but I’m assuming the figures are accurate.[/quote]
It’s been mentioned that Postal votes USUALLY favour Labor, but a vast number of people overseas aren’t registered.
It’s just one area people think Labor are being disadvantaged in, by not getting people to the ballots. Young people also have a very high number of people not registered, and these people usually vote Labor. It’s a close election and the number of young people and the number of people overseas who aren’t registered may hurt.
Diog
I may be wrong but I thought AEC does not release vote results until election day. I seem to remember they do not even start counting until polling dat because we hear so often we have to wait for the postal votes
Just to show how bored Adelaidians are with the election, the most common question I have been asked is whether it’s true that Julia Gillard and Tim have split up and that she will be living in Brighton without him.
From the AEC website…
The preliminary scrutiny of postal and early votes begins on the Monday before election day, however no votes are opened or counted until after the close of the polls. The preliminary scrutiny of absent and provisional votes begins on the Monday after election day.
A postal vote is accepted for further scrutiny if the DRO is satisfied that the voter is enrolled (or is entitled to be enrolled) for the electorate, their signature on the postal vote certificate is genuine and properly witnessed and the vote contained in the envelope is recorded prior to the close of the poll.
Dio:
Interesting.
Remember that this election there have been way more pre-poll voters.
How does YouTube rate?
River most of us just cut my say some slack and try to be polite and patient and my say is a lady I believe.
geoffrey
You cannot blame Greens for ALP problems
diogenes
doesn’t look good … but libs have been off mark for three years, the longest campaign in australian history. the great pretenders.
[ Tell someone who cares. ]
Hey bemused, a word of advice …
When you are trying to demonstrate how much you don’t care, it’s probably best not to resort to your usual idiotic tactic of re-posting the original post in it’s entirety, just so you can add some pathetic and lame insult at the end.
This just gives everyone the opportunity to re-read the original post, and also see just how much it seems to annoy you.
-Coalition: 399,800 (71.8%)
Obviously Liberal voters are fleeing the country with the likely coming of TA…
Diogenes @ 1678
As far as I am aware, no counting takes place until the day of the election after the polls have closed.
[It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on facebook.]
War on Terror, War on Boats, burqua-to-burqua traffic to Lindsay, Debt, Drugs, Unions, Clean Energy, Taxes, Gay Marriage, non-sexy women in politics, slightly sexy men that make him uncomfortable … no wonder he is expanding defence spending. Now it’s facebook’s turn.
So much war. All I am saying is give peace a chance …
😉
lateline has Butler v Hunt as its debate tonight
guytaur
i do indeed. to a very large extent, or to an extent that is perceived larger by the failure of greens to take any resposnbility ,,, this is moral blindness … noone would say – not even you – that they share no blame at all. whatever blame they share grows by their obdurate delusional self righteousness. milne has been bagin out rudd for two years – great diplomacy. over it. but if they can learn to fight libs more than they do labor good.
bemused
[Yeah, right. Go for it.
Tell someone who cares.]
Epitomises the attitude to long-term Laborites. who have worked for the party for over 30 years, from the Griffin Groupies.
Okay, I’ve called the candidate and told him I won’t be handing out HTV cards on Saturday.
He understood completely. Said Rudd had run the worst campaign ever.
Hope you’re happy.
guytaur@1697
About to endure.