This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
The ABC Board has announced the temporary suspension of its journalists code of conduct, until after the election of Tony Abbott as PM.
‘Poll Bludger scrapes the bottom of the bird cage tonight…’
What do you mean?
Are some of us wearing our bleeding hearts on our sleeves?
Toughen up.
We’re going into opposition Puffball.
Yep, I reckon at the 30 second mark in the broadcast, Red Kerry will go to the ALP rep and let them let fly at Rudd for the next few hours!
[Mod Lib
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:17 pm | PERMALINK
That Australian Sex Party ad is the best political ad I have seen I reckon!
Classic ]
It was good
Oh good lord… are we in hyperbole land right now?
[Gruen just showed Bob Meguire going on about wombat polls]
That was exactly who I thought it was too
[For the man under pressure, Kevin Rudd cuts a very calm, almost serene figure as he sits in the back of the Commonwealth car, en route to another airport, and discusses the challenge of facing two opponents in what he has dubbed the fight of his life.
“We’re fighting a coalition here and the coalition is made up of the Liberal Party on the one hand and Rupert Murdoch on the other,” he says, his tone matter-of-fact. “They should both save rent and operate from the same business premises.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-calm-in-fight-of-his-life-20130903-2t3ck.html#ixzz2dvDmwmSH ]
Haha.
He forgets, or chooses to overlook that for over 3 years his predecessor was fighting a coalition of the Liberals, Murdoch and him!
68 hours and 40 minutes to the end. Time to flee the bunker.
[Dr Fumbles McStupid
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:21 pm | PERMALINK
Gruen just showed Bob Meguire going on about wombat polls
That was exactly who I thought it was too]
That’s gold.
New2This
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
Poll Bludger scrapes the bottom of the bird cage tonight…
——————————————————
toughen up princess
[He forgets, or chooses to overlook that for over 3 years his predecessor was fighting a coalition of the Liberals, Murdoch and him!]
….you forgot the Greens
Toughen up… There is nothing like a Poll Bludger frothing at the mouth over the ditch the witch poster…
Because lord knows that poster was sensible political discourse…
ESJ:
I don’t think it will be that bad here on election night. Some of PB’s more strident, glass jawed commenters will be a) HTVing on election day, and/or b) at campaign wakes, so won’t be commenting here until the next day.
[ 68 hours and 40 minutes to the end. Time to flee the bunker ]
dcan you recommend any good reading on how to survive the Abbott Recession ESJ?
So, what happened to Lou Lou coming home for Father’s Day?
Big fanfare headlines about Louise and, live-in-sin-according-to-Catholic-Pell, boyfriend Stefano to help daddy-o with the gladdy-o?
Is he having plastic surgery to look as good as Rudd’s male children?
What’s the go? What’s going on?
Wouldn’t Louise and sisters and Margie go to mass? That couldn’t be the problem. It was reported back in 2010 that Abbott couldn’t get his ‘girls’ to attend a medieval misogynistic ritual.
New2This
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
Toughen up… There is nothing like a Poll Bludger frothing at the mouth over the ditch the witch poster…
——————————————————
Abbott has fleas – lots
lie with dogs you end up with fleas.
Toughen up J34…
Usual suspects are back for another around tonight – heh.
lol… bless you child.
ML:
I wonder how the Greens will respond to the new govt in the Senate while they have the BOP.
Paaptsef I am sure our new masters will start a re-education program.
A little bit of Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman, Ronald Reagan, John Winston to help with the national learning and healing after the downfall.
[I am not sure if they will have the decency to wait until Sunday pm like Costello. I think it is more likely that the explosion will happen just before the station go back to normal programming at 9pm on Saturday night.]
I actually think those who want to speak out against Rudd will actually bite their tongues and wait a little while just to rub the “this is what a team player looks like” point in.
@esj/1572
In other words, kill funding for education.
remember industrial Relations under Howard/Reith
I reckon Swanny will get the boots on for Saturday night ready to give Ruddy a kicking.
What exactly went on at that school?
Yeah, I doubt we’re going to see Maxine McKew style public meltdowns…
Yeah, I doubt we’re going to see Maxine McKew style public meltdowns…
sorry for double post…
[Is psephology about prediciting electoral outcomes actually?]
I believe psephs try to understand what is happening and not to polish crystal balls. That they have led to so much prediction is not their fault. Majikthise and Vroomfondel may beg to differ.
Economists, on the other hand, should be on the first ship.
Abbott has even creeped out NZ
Tony Abbott creeps out Big Brother house- he said “vote for me, my daughters are hot”: Yip, definitely creepy. http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/9125764/Tony-Abbott-creeps-out-Big-Brother-house …
Well to be honest Zoidy:
Gonski – Gone
NDIS – Scaled back massively
Green Rorts – Gone
Has to happen – just a matter of how Tone walks it back. Will help when the Labor Party starts the war after the election.
’68 hours and 40 minutes to the end. Time to flee the bunker’
But don’t bite down on that molar capsule just yet….?
I don’t think so Carey.
They have kept quiet in the vain hope that Rudd would keep their bums on the green leather. When it becomes obvious that not only has that not happened but Rudd has indeed ensured their unemployment the results will be both instantaneous and spectacular
Haha…are you a “Psychopath for Rudd”? 🙂
@edj/1582
So no funding for disabled, disavantaged, and low income workers.
Right.
Albo……. Lol bahahhaaaaa
[I reckon Swanny will get the boots on for Saturday night ready to give Ruddy a kicking. ]
Do we know which MPs and former MPs have been lined up for the TV coverages of election night?
Rosemour or Less
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:09 pm | PERMALINK
Jokes aside, I feel sorry for those girls. You could see them cringe in the Big Brother set. The chances of them enjoying normal lives and finding normal friends is probably very small.’
They’ve had plenty of time to renounce their heredity. Boo hoo.
Tell some one who cares.
If they want to drape themselves over their monkey father let them have fleas.
No more Mr Nice Guy. No more Mr cleeeean.
(Thanks Alice Cooper)
———- i agree. they are political stooges and hopefully leave their father at the altar in his own fashion … since when are children dragged around as campaign furniture…
question: if sad prosect which will not occur who would occupy lodge? at least julia had a partner
mod lib
never forget the greens. they are still bagging out labor, boasting their own impeccability. some want a labor defeat so they can emerge triumphant.
Hint on the ABC the the political compass is showing undecideds are breaking Labor’s way.
davidwh
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:41 pm | PERMALINK
Hint on the ABC the the political compass is showing undecideds are breaking Labor’s way.
——-when? that’s been predicted/anticipated for some time.
I think Channel 7 advertised the ‘BIG GUNS’ for their political coverage.
From what I saw in the ad, it was all Libs.
Zoidy, correct no money for the organisations that purport to help the disabled.
“@mumbletwits: Peter “Dutts” Dutton’s electorate Dickson probably more winnable for ALP than most in Qld technically more marginal.”
Ch7 news break says there will be a REachtel again tonight which will be reported tomorrow.
That can’t be right.
Waleed around 7.10pm full details tomorrow. So keep the faith MB.
Dee:
I’d imagine it would be hard to find Labor MPs willing to front.
It is interesting (and reassuring to me) to read comments from ALP supporters ready to slit their wrists over the likely result. As a Liberal supporter I am going through all sorts of delirious thoughts:
1. Is it possible that Meguire Bob is an intelligent perceptive person and not just a delusional troll?
2. Is the Reachtel poll showing a late sharp swing rather than a margin of error adjustment?
3. Might Kevin Rudd’s spiel to the BB house sway young uninformed voters or are they so switched off that they didn’t watch?
Everyone says its over and yet I will not rest easy until the polls are closed. The next 3 days cannot come quickly enough.
@edj/1594
haha, that’s why I will never support Coalition Party, they don’t help people in the disabled sector.