James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
[quote]Asked whether he supported the statements by Mr King, who drew a link between the burqa and criminality at a fund-raiser, Mr Abbott admitted he found it “a very confronting attire”.
“Frankly, it’s not the sort of attire that I would like to see widespread in our streets,” Mr Abbott told reporters on Saturday,
You’re right it is jot racist…its anti-muslim[/quote]
He then said, as a free country he would have no problem if people chose to do so.
Also, saying the burqa is confronting isn’t racist. It is intimidating clothing, which ties into his comment about his not wishing to see it on the street all the time.
And no. You can’t testify in court wearing full head covering. There are very good reasons for it. Saying this isn’t racist either.
1246
It is a complicated issue. Whether it is a liberating idea or an oppressing idea comes down to how many will stop wearing it, when they do not want to and still go about their daily lives in public versus how many will stop going about their daily lives in public.
[Can’t wait to see Sinodinos join Odbied etc after he fronts the ICAC for his involvement in shady deals]
Join him where?
Can anyone think of a significant policy announcement from the Libs in this whole campaign?
Can anyone think of a significant policy announcement from Labor apart from thought bubbles like the NT tax haven, moving the navy and the VFT, all of which we know will never happen?
So, on the microchipping. Has anyone from the Fibs actually proposed it, or is it just something that one of their candidates advocated in a previous life? Had a read of the linked paper and it reads like something put together by a nasty little pervy 14 year old.
Ir does say somewhat about the quality of candidates the Fibs are putting up though.
Diog@1254
And “the train/s”; never forget the train/s.
So Nielsen next week, presumably on the eve of the election.
BTW THank you Pbers for setting Mich 77 straight on his reply to me, I was busy doing my grandma trick of making pancakes for the grandkids, found Mick’s stupid comment to me before reading the rest of the comments, but happy with my comment 1236
See Mick now commenting on Burqas, Diogenes 1245 that is correct what you say.
[Can anyone think of a significant policy announcement from the Libs in this whole campaign?]
It depends by what you mean by significant. Remembering that this is today’s Liberal party, I think the boat buy back would be classed by them as significant.
As for Labor, no not really.
Looks like it Confessions. In William we trust.
[quote]And “the train/s”; never forget the train/s.[/quote]
He wasn’t even proposing a train. He said he’d put some land aside and conduct another feasibility study.
As if his feasibility study will say anything the recently conducted one did not.
Socrates@1246
Well said Socrates.
There is indeed nothing Islamic about the burqa or even the slightly less bizarre niquab.
They seemed to have evolved as tribal dress in areas subject to sand or dust storms to protect the face.
Most Moslem women I have known wear normal western dress. A few add a headscarf to this and one I was good friends with wore more distinctive garments but certainly not anything covering the face. Oh… her husband was a Moslem cleric too.
Mick
I’ve got the VFT in there.
Labor have committed to a whole one thousandth of the total cost of the VFT this election.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-1) L/NP 53 (+1) #ausvotes]
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 56s
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (-1) L/NP 46 (+1) GRN 10 (0) #ausvotes]
Did a pre-poll vote today. Managed to number 110 squares below the line for the Senate so I know exactly where my preferences are going.
Tom 1252
I cannot agree. The wearing of the burqa had died out in many muslim countries by the twentieth century, except in ceremonial occasions. There have been forcible attempts to reintroduce it by hardline wahabist elements of the Islamic world. They have many opponents within the Islamic world. Most female muslim scholars hate it. Read the article on the French headscarf ban, which goes into the politics and motivations.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_scarf_controversy_in_France
Have a good night all. i agree Rudd should really focus on selling Labor’s achievements tomorrow, then move to selling the things Labor is doing, not too much new stuff. The main thing is to tie it together as a narrative.
mari
I was interested in all the different gowns, headwear etc that the people, male and women, were wearing in Dubai. I wanted to ask some if they had different meanings, like religion, or status, or family, or if they were more personal preference/fashion.
All pretty static at the national level.
[quote]Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-1) L/NP 53 (+1) #ausvotes[/quote]
Labor would be happy with that. They’ve had a crap week and the polls haven’t changed.
That’s pretty conclusive proof that people have switched off.
Bemused
Yes, I have several Muslim friends at work, and they are the same.
Docantk
How did you choose where to place the coke in bubblers party?
[Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63 1m
Same as Nielsen, same as Newspoll, Same as Morgan. RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-1) L/NP 53 (+1)]
Maybe I’m missing something, but I’ve never understand how making it illegal to wear a burqa is any different from making it illegal to not wear a burqa. If you’re in a country where its mandatory for women to wear a burqa, then, yes, that’s horribly oppressive. But we don’t live in one of those countries. Let people wear what they want to wear – as long as they’re not walking around in the nude or in their mother’s flayed skin, who gives a shit?
I just find the whole “we must stop Australia from adopting Sharia Law!” campaign a bit… pointless, really. Sharia Law IS awful, no doubt about it, but it’s never going to come into effect in Australia, never in a million years. You may as well put your efforts into fighting the legalization of cannibalism or elephant fucking.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 59s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Perth 2 Party Preferred: ALP 58 LIB 42 #ausvotes]
Go Allanah!
Mari
[but happy with my comment 1236]
Is that the one where you said that interest rates don’t matter to retirees because for example, you (mari), champion of the ALP, have your money in shares, so who cares?
Socrates@1271
Most of mine are partial to a drop of wine too. 😉
Shellbell @1272
numbers 30-90 are a bit of a blur!
I know who I wanted at the top, and who I definitely wanted at the bottom…
At least Essential will say it is too close to call on Monday
River, Glenn Stevens was clearly talking about a different question – how a mining boom/bust might have impacted on/been impacted by the economy under other circumstances – in terms of inflation specifically.
That you can in the same breath say that this proves that stimulus was irrelevant is dishonest.
Of course everything in the economy is linked. Saying that the GFC changed the inflationary impact on the economy of the mining boom doesn’t tell us that we wouldn’t have had a significant recession without stimulus; in fact it kind of indicates that the GFC had a significant recessionary impact. That (with hindsight) the mining boom + stimulus + GFC ended up with a mostly neutral outcome for us (Australia not quite slipping into recession) means the stimulus was essential to keeping that balance and we would have had a significant recession without the stimulus.
So thanks for proving that the stimulus was important and about the right magnitude.
Comparing stimulus measures of different economies without looking at each economy’s circumstances and the size and targeting of the stimulus is also just a junk talking point. For most of the economies you have mentioned the primary criticism of the stimulus measures they implemented were that they weren’t large enough when stimulus was required AND that they weren’t very well targeted – most stimulus in the US, for example, was via bailing out the banks as opposed to stimulus targeted at consumers and construction industries, as it was here.
I don’t agree with banning the burqa but I don’t think it should be allowed in situations where you wouldn’t be allowed to wear a bicycle helmet, like court or banks.
Bemused
Good to see your grand-daughter getting involved so early. It will be a great experience for her.
I’m doing pre-polling 1-6 pm on Tuesday through Thursday. Polling is very heavy. It’s a trend that will continue for the future.
Then, of course, the setting up and working all day on Election day, and scrutineering. I hope they don’t drag it out. We will all be stuffed by then!
I am also very critical of news-limited polling. I remember before the 2007 federal election there was a suggestion by the Australian on there “polling” that Peter Beattie’s council amalgamations where going to cost Labor seats in Queensland. Nothing was more further from the truth- in fact Peter Beattie said on Lateline that there internal research had shown that it would not effect people’s intentions voting federally.
Also in the 2007 election- the Australian made the prediction that Labor would win four seats in Queensland of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Bowman. Labor picked up nine seats that election in Queensland and didn’t end up winning Bowman. There was no mention of Flynn, Dawson, Leighcardt, Forde, or a suggestion Labor would be a close chance in Dickson or Herbert.
I still think Labor is behind in this campaign- but the obsession by the media on polls and some of this unreliable reporting leaves lot to be desired. Which includes a poll “commissioned by Galaxy for the Greens” that suggested Adam Bandt would hold his seat on a primary vote of 48%.
[quote]Maybe I’m missing something, but I’ve never understand how making it illegal to wear a burqa is any different from making it illegal to not wear a burqa.[/quote]
And yet we’re entering a phase where more security cameras are being introduced everywhere to try and prevent crime. Any sort of face covering will make security cameras pretty damn pointless.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 59s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Perth 2 Party Preferred: ALP 58 LIB 42 #ausvotes]
This is a) the first electorate poll from WA this campaign, and b) the first poll of any kind this campaign to show a swing to Labor (with maybe the arguable exception of the New England and Lyne Newspolls).
River
Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-1) L/NP 53 (+1) #ausvotes
Labor would be happy with that. They’ve had a crap week and the polls haven’t changed.
That’s pretty conclusive proof that people have switched off.
Correct!
Looks like you are keeping everyone on here in line River haha.
And here’s the second WA poll of the campaign:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Hasluck 2 Party Preferred: LIB 55 ALP 45 #ausvotes
Just a week to go ladies and gents till we get rid of this mob!
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 19s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Hasluck 2 Party Preferred: LIB 55 ALP 45 #ausvotes]
Diog
[I was interested in all the different gowns, headwear etc that the people, male and women, were wearing in Dubai. I wanted to ask some if they had different meanings, like religion, or status, or family, or if they were more personal preference/fashion.]
Just as well you didn’t approach a female there who was wearing the uniform and start talking to her or we may be reading about your troubles now in the press. However I note as before, how concerned Mari is about how Oz will come across in Dubai because of Abbott’s measured and sensible comments on the burqa. She’s on a cultural cringe i think.
Actually, I agree with that as well – I don’t think it’s too much of an ask for someone to show their face in such a situation. Same with photo IDs.
River
[And yet we’re entering a phase where more security cameras are being introduced everywhere to try and prevent crime. Any sort of face covering will make security cameras pretty damn pointless.]
That’s true but you are still allowed to wear a bike helmet around in the streets so I think the same rules should apply to both.
That was a reply to 1281, BTW
Diogenes
Yes I was struck by the same thing in Dubai, a lot of people from Saudi A come over. I had an interesting conversation with my driver about customs etc eg more than 1 wife, he was very open about it all
A woman can be made to remove her burqa in a NSW court
William:
Galaxy doesn’t usually poll in WA I thought?
The only interesting WA poll may be Brand
[quote]Of course everything in the economy is linked. Saying that the GFC changed the inflationary impact on the economy of the mining boom doesn’t tell us that we wouldn’t have had a significant recession without stimulus; in fact it kind of indicates that the GFC had a significant recessionary impact. That (with hindsight) the mining boom + stimulus + GFC ended up with a mostly neutral outcome for us (Australia not quite slipping into recession) means the stimulus was essential to keeping that balance and we would have had a significant recession without the stimulus.[/quote]
I was initially responding to a poster who was lamenting that the treasurer who steered Australia through the GFC would lose his seat. It’s rubbish. I accept your point that the stimulus was important, but every treasurer around the world set up their own stimulus package, and yet we were spared while a lot of others got whacked. Wayne was successful because he had China’s help, it doesn’t make him a genius.
I accept I overstated my point, but I’m getting pretty frustrated with people setting Wayne up on some sort of MENSA like pedestal. He had help from China and he got lucky. And no, I’m not bitter saying that, even Glenn Stevens says we were lucky.
Confessions:
I’ll be delighted if Allanah has a big win like that come next Saturday.
Even over here it is obvious she is a great talent and achieved a lot as a Minister.
I’ve seen her on TV and she certainly calls a spade a shovel. She was great on Q@A.
Pity she was denied the Leadership because of factionalism and the usual Labor internal machinations.
Ghost has stuffed up the figures for Brand. It’s either 58-42 or 42-58