James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
Further on that rich and poor thing, I’d recommend anyone serious about it read the work of John Rawls and David Miller. For a good intro, read the following, to appreciate just how simplistic some Labor rhetoric on “worker justice” has become.
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/justice-distributive/
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/desert/
With all due respect to any remaining soclalists, Marx is really about 100 years obsolete n this topic. Singing solidarity forever will not get one million young people who have not bothered to register to vote to join the rolls. The is defeat for Labor in one demographic
[quote]But then you’d know so much better than the world’s leading economists, and organisations such as the IMF and OECD.
If you’re so fcuking clever why aren’t you running one of those organisations? Instead of spending your time on blogs like this…[/quote]
I remember a couple of years ago, one economist came out and wrote an entire article about how economic cycle so closely follows China’s.
I suppose these sorts of view don’t support your Swann worship and therefore have been discarded.
Cry as much as you want, it doesn’t change the facts. China saved Australia, not Rudd. The global financial crisis wasn’t global. Rudd and Swan did exactly the same as every other country did, which apparently makes them geniuses. Keating would guffaw if you told him Swann had to navigate Australia through difficult times.
I care more about Abbott’s racist outburst today
What a disgrace this “man” is…..
Ray King, Liberal candidate for McMahon and Abbott laudee does see some concerns about the microchipping of people
[As you might already imagine, in-body RFID chips have spawned a considerable backlash of protest. The group AntiChips calls the VeriChip “human branding,” especially in the case of the “volunteers” for the program with Alzheimer’s disease. They also claim the chips cause cancer (citing a number of animal studies), and that the FDA approval should be revoked. There are also a number of additional risks which the FDA already recognizes: tissue reactions, migration of the chip, even the small chance that the chip could carry a current from MRI magnets and burn the patient but these setbacks are expected to be rectified in later development of the RFID technology.]
however, King discounts these concerns ….
http://kevinmatthewlee.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/microchipping-of-human-subjects-as_2989.html
[I doubt Barnett did anything near as ludicrous]
Around the same time you cite Swan as making those comments and bringing down labor’s budget, so too was Barnett
spruiking the mining boom saying it would continue past 2020. He also handed down a budget last year.
It wasn’t until this year’s budget that he finally realised the truth. Same with Swan.
The reality is that political leaders take advice from the departments.
I’m not really one for poll-related conspiracies, but the dearth of nation-wide polls as compared to the seat polls (the latter of course being far less less kind to Labor) over the last two weeks does strike me as a little odd. Normally we would be getting overwhelmed with national polls this close to an election.
[quote]I care more about Abbott’s racist outburst today[/quote]
If it’s about the burqa incident, it wasn’t racist. And I’m happy to argue the point all day with you.
[quote]Around the same time you cite Swan as making those comments and bringing down labor’s budget, so too was Barnett
spruiking the mining boom saying it would continue past 2020. He also handed down a budget last year.
It wasn’t until this year’s budget that he finally realised the truth. Same with Swan.
The reality is that political leaders take advice from the departments.
[/quote]
Oh deary me.
I don’t live in the West so I must have missed it. Economists must have had a field day, they definitely did with Swan.
River
[Cry as much as you want, it doesn’t change the facts. China saved Australia, not Rudd. The global financial crisis wasn’t global]
Crap. That is either genuine ignorance, or trying to deceive. You are wrong either way. I do not defend Swan, but several Treasury and RBA papers proved that the stimulus was critical. The GFC affected the entire OECD, and many developing countries to. China, like us, put in place its won stimulus package, and saved itself.
Yeah give us the national polls.
Like I said: I would not give you tuppence for these “combo-seat ALP marginal” exercises (WTF, since when does this exist?), and Im prepared to argue the methodological toss with any f*cker from News Ltd who wants to come out, live, and defend them.
‘Narrative polling’. A close cousin to the push.
It’s good to see candidates like Ray King espousing the sort of sane, practical and fiscally responsible policies the Liberal Party is famous for. Makes me very confident about the next three years.
Ray King see community benefits in microchipping humans, and yes, you too can volunteer to trial this Liberal plan.
I can see ModLb, Mick77, SeanT, ComactC and their fellow travellers lining up to trial this innovative Liberal policy.
[Further assisting police in introducing this form of law enforcement in NSW would be the use of Community focus groups who can be asked to trial the devices and determine the extent of inconvenience. With access to this control group by investigative media being encouraged, it will show full transparency in how this technology will not impact the lifestyles of the bearer. I propose a new TV program which focuses on how police response time and statistics of crime would be reduced by the employment of RFID locators.
The police need to be aware of and harness the broad community interest in so-called “reality TV” programs which give an insight into police operating techniques (without giving away our ‘secrets’). This new genre which includes programs such as The Force, Missing Persons and RBT has led to a greater awareness and support for the methodology of policing and preliminary media surveys have indicated that the community is increasingly supportive of police in general.]
http://kevinmatthewlee.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/microchipping-of-human-subjects-as_2989.html
Wow just saw a Liberal advert featuring an old woman castigating the National member for “voting with Labor and the Greens on ” a whole raft of things, including “the flood levy.”
Don’t know which O’Connor voters this advert is pitched at but Crook made it very clear at the time that he was voting for the flood levy because parts of his electorate were badly affected by floods! And those voters are now being told not to vote Nats because they help pass legislation that helps you!
The advert didn’t mention Crook by name, and said “that’s why I’m voting for my local Liberal”, suggesting it was an imported advert from the eastern states.
Bad move.
We have had four national polls in the last six days.
Actually five national polls if you include both Morgan polls.
@lefty e 1210
Yeah, the seat polls seem to be mostly junk. I mean, WTF was with that one that combined current results with others from several weeks ago. What exactly is that supposed to tell us?
For anyone interested in understanding how massively wrong River was at 1202, this article discusses the panic the GFC created in developing countries, not just the OECD.
http://www.odi.org.uk/publications/2613-effects-global-financial-crisis-developing-countries-emerging-markets-policy-responses-crisis
To demonstrate the point, I have done some work on sea freight in SE Asia, which is a very good ndicator of economic growth. Port Klang is the largest port in Malaysia. Volumes have grown around 10% per annum every year for almost 20 years. But in 2009, port volumes at Port Klang dropped sharply. The effect of the GFC was dramatic even in SE Asia.
The sad part about The River of rubbish at 1202 is that many might believe it, because Lbor has been so unbelievably bad at selling its own successes. That will cost it government. The reason is obvious – apart from Leigh, maybe Rudd, and formerly Tanner, nobody in Cabinet really has a clue about economics, yet they still want to run the country.
[We have had four national polls in the last six days.]
Yeah and they’re all 53, not 57 – nil, invoke mercy rule, does the Geneva convention cover this election etc.
More improtantly, theyre polls of an actual thing: the nation. Not some arbitrarily determined non-existent sub-group of non-radnomly selected seats, which tells us nothing (is one of the ALP marginals 52-48 up? could easily be, f*cked if we’d know from the data).
Bloombergs, Aug 2013
[“The RBA certainly hasn’t called the end of the mining boom yet, and there’s an export phase still to come.”]
[Economists must have had a field day, they definitely did with Swan.]
Barnett is an economist himself.
This is what he had to say:
[“This period of mining investment has a long way to go,” he said.
“I expect strong demand for commodities to continue on well beyond 2020.
“The prices may ease off a little bit but there is no doubt with China’s growth, emerging Indian growth and indeed other parts of Asia, that there are many years to look forward to with confidence.”
…
[The state’s latest budget papers support a rosy fiscal outlook with economic growth for the current financial year forecast at 4.75 per cent.
Mr Barnett says the boom is on with business investment at historically high levels.
“So, this is a construction phase until 2020,” he said.
“The economy in the state will then have lifted to a whole new higher level and you will see then production continue and probably a more gradual growth in mining.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-26/mining-boom-has-longevity-feature/4094100
Less than 12 months later he was predicting the commodities boom was over.
[Australia’s LNG developments typically have 20-year contracts to sell the commodity to Asian customers at oil-linked prices, underpinning “a long revenue stream for federal and state budgets,” Catherine Tanna, chairman of BG’s local unit, QGC Pty, said in an Aug. 1 interview. Tanna also sits on the RBA’s board.
The seven LNG ventures, plus three already operating, are projected to contribute A$520 billion to GDP between 2015 and 2025, according to McKinsey. While a second phase of potential LNG ventures could contribute a further A$320 billion to the economy, high costs and increasing competition from North America may jeopardize the plans and economic benefits, it said.]
Actually, I think this Liberal Party idea of microchipping classes of people might have some legs.
Just imagine, all the Liberal drones, and Murdoch shills could be microchipped – so that the talking points from Menzies House could be distributed more efficiently.
You know it makes sense. Ask Ray.
Newspoll always does these composite marginal seats polls during federal election campaigns.
” rel=”nofollow”>here’s one from 2007.
MTBW 1054
Worst that that as you know just returned from Dubai, while I don’t like the burqa I am not the PM of Australia, how can this man Tony Abbott represent us in Moslem countries with views like that on record???
[but several Treasury and RBA papers proved that the stimulus was critical. ]
I’ll never forget Henry fronting a Senate Estimates committee and telling a blubbering Abetz and Cormann that the mining industry practically went into recession during the GFC.
Well fair enough WIlliam – but scabies has been around for ages too.
Bemused
Yes, I will applaud and cheer a little louder for you.
How is the campaign going in your neck of the woods?
Sprocket 1222
Great idea. If the Liberals would share the list with Health departments it would make life a lot easier for psychiatric services too.
They were more meaningful in 2007 William 🙂
Confessions
True. BHPB sacked thousands in 2009. How quickly people forget the Ravensthorpe mine closure too.
[quote]I do not defend Swan, but several Treasury and RBA papers proved that the stimulus was critical.[/quote]
Rubbish. This was what Glenn Stevens said:
[quote]Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens says the global financial crisis and financial caution by households helped the country wade its way through the mining boom.
Mr Stevens added that the “prudent behaviour of households, together with some genuine caution by many firms”, helped Australia successfully navigate the century-high boom in mining investment.
Mr Stevens said while commentators have said Australia was “lucky” to have the mining boom, it could also be said that the country was “‘lucky’ that the effects of the global economic downturn worked to help reduce inflation in Australia from its peak in 2008 of 5 per cent – which was way too high – to something acceptable”.
“It could also be said that we were fortunate that the sub-prime crisis in the US emerged from early 2007, and not later. Although such lending was less prominent in Australia at that time, it was growing fast and would have become a much bigger vulnerability had it continued at that pace.”
“We have to negotiate the downward phase of the investment boom over the next few years, which appears likely to pose significant challenges,” he said today.[/quote]
Yeah, it sure as hell sounds like he credits Swan for navigating us through the GFC, doesn’t it? What it DOES sound like is Glen Stevens saying the mining boom and the GFC helped ‘cancel each other out’ for lack of a better term. Now ask yourself who the hell buys all our coal?
Gosh, I’ve missed a lot lately!
[Australia’s mining tax was upheld as legal today by the country’s highest court in a defeat for Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG) and state governments that challenged its validity.
The High Court of Australia’s full bench unanimously dismissed the challenge, ruling the tax “did not discriminate between states and that the acts did not give preference to one state over another,” according to a summary of the ruling posted on the court’s website.]
Voting with “Gillard’s Greens” on border security was one of the issues along with the flood “tax” she called it, not levy.
What a poor ad! Totally mixing up the messages, and as I said earlier, knocking Crook for supporting financial assistance to flood-affected parts of this seat!
Fail.
River
Keep shifting those goalposts. Maybe nobody else will notice. You can tell yourself you are clever that way. Sort of.
Did we end up getting a Neilsen after all that?
There have been so many polls it’s hard to keep track of where things are at.
MICK 77 1059
Please don’t be silly, I am a retired controller(accountant) of international companies in Australia, I don’t have my funds tied up in bank deposit accounts. Also isn’t your party ie LNP (Howard and Costello) who always boasted interest rates were lower under LNP? Was that an act of God or what, surely not good management?
Just don’t come the raw prawn with m on this topic OK!!
For society, the burqa needs to be banned in Australia.-
Cory Bernardi is a Liberal Party Senator
2010 Liberal leader Tony Abbott and WA Premier Colin Barnett have attacked a Muslim woman’s request to testify in a court case wearing a full head covering
Asked whether he supported the statements by Mr King, who drew a link between the burqa and criminality at a fund-raiser, Mr Abbott admitted he found it “a very confronting attire”.
“Frankly, it’s not the sort of attire that I would like to see widespread in our streets,” Mr Abbott told reporters on Saturday,
You’re right it is jot racist…its anti-muslim
Abbott makes no such comments about others
No Nielsn yet Confessions. Actually haven’t heard a wisper that they have been polling although it would be strange if there isn’t one this weekend.
[quote]Keep shifting those goalposts. Maybe nobody else will notice. You can tell yourself you are clever that way. Sort of.[/quote]
Play the ball, not the man. Unless you’ve run out of points.
I haven’t though. Here’s another one. ‘Stimulus’ isn’t a magic pill Australia swallowed to cure themselves. Germany, America, Spain, Itlay, England all had their own stimulus packages and they all got whalloped. What was the difference? Glenn Stevens explained the difference above.
The mining boom and the GFC cancelled each other out. That is what the head of the reserve bank said. Want to go argue with him?
Mari
[Worst that that as you know just returned from Dubai, while I don’t like the burqa I am not the PM of Australia, how can this man Tony Abbott represent us in Moslem countries with views like that on record???]
Same as Pres of France does where they’ve banned the burqa, as they have in Belgium I believe and are contemplating elsewhere. And Abbott doesn’t advocate banning. And your concern for how our reps are seen in Moslem countries is touching; perhaps you should be more concerned that in Dubai they almost jailed a woman who was raped for 18 months for “sex outside of marriage”. Yep, don’t want to offend places like Dubai, Qantas’s new partner.
My guess is that Nielsen’s brief was to conduct three polls in the campaign at fortnightly intervals, which makes this an “off” week.
feeney@1227
I did a couple of shifts on the pre-polling this week in my electorate.
I got a call from one of Laura Smyth’s campaign workers in Latrobe and it looks like I will be going down there to help out at least 2 afternoon / evening shifts next week. I got in touch with my eldest grand-daughter and she is keen to assist too, but that will have to fit with school and homework.
My Saturday 7th Sept will be a very full day. 😀
[Newspoll always does these composite marginal seats polls during federal election campaigns. Here’s one from 2010, and here’s one from 2007.]
So they did WB,and lets have a squeegee at their performance:
2010:
Robertson falling to libs: WRONG
Labor hold Bennelong: WRONG
Forde dead level; WRONG
Brisbane ALP hold :WRONG
leichhardt ALP hold :WRONG
Bonner ALP hold: WRONG
I didnt even ge to VIC, or 2007.
And I might add: they seem to be “average marginal seat polls” of each state in 2010, although its true theyre “key coalition marginals” in 2007.
I think the former method more reputable on methodological grounds.
[Mr Abbott admitted he found it “a very confronting attire”.]
Confronting is a hairy middle aged man, the alternative PM appearing on national tv wearing meat hangers.
I used to find the burqa a bit confronting but after a day in Dubai, there were so many people wearing them that it didn’t bother me any more.
Aussie achmed
I really wish people would stop saying banning the Burqa is anti-Islamic. It is not. The Burqa is a cultural practice that is not universal in the muslim world. I am not anti muslim, but I am anti burqa. I am just as opposed to the burqa as I am to the more barbaric beliefs of some christian fundamentalists who want to jail people for being gay or shoot abortion doctors.
Try finding the forced wearing of the burqa, or even most of Sharia law, in the Koran. You will not find it. Some Islamic groups just as cynically misuse their religeon for political ends as Fred Nile and co do. See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burqa
The French seem to be one of the few countries which have had the courage to take this issue on. The rest of our governments are too cowardly, or too busy grovelling for votes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_scarf_controversy_in_France
[Voting with “Gillard’s Greens” on border security]
yes, this is what I was referring to earlier in terms of the shift to Rudd shoring up the senate for not only ALP,but also for GRNs – frees the GRNs of certain tarbrushes.
1240
Dubai`s legal system is yet to be brought in line with modern standards of justice. It will be one day.
Leave the Burqa thing alone.
its bait for western sydney. Abbott hoping for a nibble.
Mari
[Please don’t be silly, I am a retired controller(accountant) of international companies in Australia, I don’t have my funds tied up in bank deposit accounts. Also isn’t your party ie LNP (Howard and Costello) who always boasted interest rates were lower under LNP? Was that an act of God or what, surely not good management?
Just don’t come the raw prawn with m on this topic OK!!]
Well Mari, that strikes a blow for class warfare. Labor rich lady doesn’t dabble in interest only investments, they are for the rest, which is the majority of (worried) part pensioners in OZ. Even the wealthy SFRs don’t put all their investments in non interest bearing, but you’re an exception apparently and I didn’t think we were talking just about you. Please read again what I wrote about lower interest rates. And my party is not LNP – I don’t have a party unlike rusted-ons here.