ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition

This morning brings a ReachTEL national automated poll consistent with the result of the last such poll a fortnight ago, and also with the overall polling trend.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 3500 respondents, conducted on Monday and released today by Channel Seven, has the Coalition leading 53-47, unchanged from the last national ReachTEL poll on August 10. The only primary vote provided at this stage is that Labor is down 1.2% to 35.7%. The poll also finds the Coalition paid parental leave scheme supported by 30% and opposed by 48.4%, Tony Abbott leading Kevin Rudd on ReachTEL’s idiosyncratic preferred prime minister measure by 53.6-46.4, 41.9% believing Labor made the right choice in replacing Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd against 40.5% for the wrong choice and 74% expecting the Coalition to win the election.

We also had yesterday a Galaxy automated phone poll of 575 respondents from the northern Adelaide fringe seat of Wakefield courtesy of The Advertiser, which is presumably treating us progressively to polling from South Australia’s most marginal seats. This one showed Labor’s Nick Champion leading his Liberal challenger Tom Zorich 55-45, suggesting a swing to the Liberals of between 5% and 6%. The primary votes were 45% for Champion and 35% for Zorich.

Further raw material for tea-leaf reading from The Australian, whose lead story yesterday essentially consisted of an account of where its reporters believe things to stand. This was consolidated into a “call of the card” laying out which seats might change hands and with what likelihood. Those of you who might wish to write this off as a contrivance of Murdoch propagandists can feel free, but since the aggregate findings sit pretty well with BludgerTrack, I’m inclined to regard it as welcome intelligence as to how the campaigns are seeing things.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has since been updated with big-sample state breakdowns provided to me by ReachTEL, so some of the numbers cited below have changed quite a bit.

Where BludgerTrack presently counts eight losses for Labor in New South Wales, The Australian’s list sees six as likely if you include Dobell (which I do) plus one strong chance and two possibles. Aside from Dobell (margin 5.2%), the seats listed as likely losses are Labor’s five most marginal: Greenway (0.9%), Robertson (1.1%), Lindsay (1.2%), Banks (1.5%) and Reid (2.7%). However, the picture of a uniform swing breaks down with Werriwa (6.8%) being rated a strong chance and Kingsford Smith (5.2%) and McMahon (7.9%) as possibilities. So while Labor has fires to fight all over Sydney and the central coast, it appears set to be spared in its seats further afield, namely Eden-Monaro (4.2%), Page (4.2%) and Richmond (7.0%). There also appears to be inconsistency in Sydney to the extent that Parramatta (4.4%) and Barton (6.9%) are not listed.

In Victoria, The Australian’s assessment is well in line with BludgerTrack’s call of three Liberal gains in having two listed as likely (Corangamite on 0.3% and La Trobe on 1.7%) and another as a strong chance (Deakin on 0.9%). Labor’s next most marginal seat in Victoria, Chisholm (5.8%), is evidently considered a bridge too far. The only seat featured from South Australia is the “strong chance” of Hindmarsh (6.1%), but BludgerTrack is not quite seeing it that way, the swing currently recorded there being lower than what most observers expect.

Redressing all that slightly is a list of seats which Labor might gain, albeit that it is very short. Brisbane (1.2%) is rated a “likely Coalition loss”, and despite what published polls might say Peter Beattie is rated a strong chance in Forde (1.7%). The Western Australian seat of Hasluck (0.6%) is also listed as a possible Labor gain. However, a report elsewhere in the paper cites Labor MPs saying hopes there have faded, while Andrew Probyn of The West Australian today relates that Liberal polling has them leading 53-47 from 46% of the primary vote against 36% for Labor and 9% for the Greens.

Queensland and Western Australia also have seats listed on the other side of the ledger, especially Queensland. With Queensland we find the one serious breakdown with a BludgerTrack projection, one which in this case I have long been noting as problematic. The Australian lists Moreton (1.2%), Petrie (2.6%) and Capricornia (3.7%) as likely Labor losses, to which are added the strong chance of Blair (4.3%) and the possibility of Kevin Rudd indeed losing Griffith (8.5%). However, the latter seems a bit hard to credit if neighbouring Brisbane is to be deemed a likely Labor gain, and Lilley (3.2%), Rankin (5.4%) and Oxley (5.8%) left off the chopping block.

In Western Australia, Labor’s possible gain of Hasluck is balanced by a possible loss of Brand (3.4%). This tends to confirm my suspicion that BludgerTrack, on which Labor’s numbers in WA have soured considerably recently, is erring slightly on the harsh side with respect to Labor. Bass and Braddon are listed as likely Labor losses for Tasmania, with Lyons (12.3%) only rated a possibility and Franklin (10.8%) not in play. Powered by what may have been an exaggerated result from ReachTEL on the weekend, BludgerTrack is calling it three losses for Labor in Tasmania with only one seat spared. The Northern Territory seat of Lingiari (3.8%) is rated by The Australian as a possible loss, while BludgerTrack has it as likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 29
1 … 3 4 5 … 29

  1. So we are now at the desperate stage where unless a paper is being critical of Labor, undermining the Labor message, just plain lying about what Labor has stated or not showing immature caricatures of Rudd etc it is pro-Labor.

    Right.

  2. Aussie 151

    In Geoff’s eyes anyway and probably the other resident ones on here,one of whom should be about ready to check in for morning shift :devil:

  3. “@LeftJustice13: #imvotingliberal cos a foreign billionaire megalomaniac dictator told me to, and he has my best interests at heart, or so his newspprs said”

  4. mari
    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 9:47 am | PERMALINK
    Poor Geoff seems to be in a bit of a flap when one newspaper group (Fairfax) is being balanced, wonder why?

    ————–

    More and more the coalition supporters are showing desperation as well

  8. Releasing the costings one at a time is sneaky and underhanded. But then they are Liberals so its not unexpected or out of character.

    Based on the PPL numbers the extra $1b+ could be passed on to pensioners and self funded retirees as compensation for the 1.5% levy.

  10. On twitter. I like it.

    [There is only one thing @KRuddMP needs to say to @TonyAbbottMHR tonight at Rooty Hill: “Does this guy ever tell the truth!?! #ausvotes]

  13. It looks like Tim Fischer (former Coalition Deputy PM) is joining the band of former Caolition leaders who despise the way their side of politics is going under Abbott:

    [Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott will “undoubtedly” lose votes to Bob Katter and Clive Palmer in Queensland on election day, former deputy prime minister and Nationals leader Tim Fischer has warned.

    Mr Fischer also criticised the “campaign heavyweights” of the major parties for the staged management of the leaders, and called for “robust” town hall meetings in regional federal seats such as Flynn and Maranoa.

    “They {the electorates} seem to be ruled out by the campaign heavyweights as too risky,” he said.

    “But the quid pro quo is those campaign managers can’t complain when people switch off because of the absolutely choreographed appearances of leaders twice a day to feed the news cycle.

    “It is {going to lose votes}. Undoubtedly.”]

    http://m.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/tim-fischer-warns-major-parties-will-lose-votes-to-katter-and-palmer-20130827-2snaw.html

  17. “@sspencer_63: Hockey and Robb to release coalition costings at 10:30, presser at 10:45. pre-empting the NPC Treasurers’ debate. #ausvotes”

  19. Liberal backbencher John Alexander ‘has revealed coalition will bring back WorkChoices’

    First-time MP John Alexander, speaking at a business function in his Sydney electorate last week, said weekend penalty rates needed overhauling.

    “It is something that must be addressed and it must be addressed without that position of the worker is king and must be given these rights,” he said.

    The former tennis star said employees should be able to negotiate their work conditions with their employer, and if penalty rates hurt productivity they were not producing efficiency.

    “They cannot be a good thing,” he said.

    Under WorkChoices, women working full time on Australian Workplace Agreements (AWAs) took home $87.40 per week less on average than women on collective agreements and 63 per cent of AWAs reduced penalty rates.

  21. markjs

    mmm…I could give it a go I ‘spose.
    Maybe after the elction…things’ll be pretty dire round here for a while after planet PB comes off it’s axis….

    Should I follow you?

  23. Haha Mari of course you will call a Pro-Labor paper balanced. I would not expect anything less.
    I do not call Newscorp balanced and I am not calling Fairfax balanced either. What has happened is MB’s Rants have no grounding anymore because labor have their own Gina paper.

  24. [Tony Abbott leading Kevin Rudd on ReachTEL’s idiosyncratic preferred prime minister measure by 53.6-46.4,]

    This is just so out of whack with the others by a long margin surely it is indicating that their sample is very odd.

    I suspect it is the younger vote that is being missed here.

    What are the phone answering habits by age bracket? Do the younger ones hang up not answer land lines when at home….do they bother with landlines if living out of home.

    How many living with parents and do they bother to take robo Calls.

    I guess we will know something post election

  25. ‘Yes that is a good killer line PMKR could use. Good thinking by that tweeter’

    Except Kevin will deliver the line like an awkward year 11 teachers pet trying to score points against the sporty popular kid in an audition for a play about a class debate….and kill it stone dead…

  31. From the FactCheck website

    Treasurer Chris Bowen says the Coalition’s proposed paid parental leave scheme will cost Australian investors $1.6 billion.

    Now we know where the Hockey/Abbott
    “Other adjustments to government spending/revenue-$1.6B”
    will come from.

  34. kevjohnno @ 130

    How does removing the state schemes help the commonwealths budget? What are the “Other adjustments to government spending/revenue-$1.6B”

    The Federal Government is to negotiate with the states for a flow of money back to the Commonwealth on the basis that no state will be worse off as a result of the introduction of the scheme.

    The $1.6B? See here: –

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/tony-abbotts-baby-boosts-budget/story-fn9qr68y-1226705344273

    Another $1.6bn will be saved from reduced payments of family and other benefits and the income tax collected on PPL payments.

  37. dawidwh/178
    Yes good point. All the other national polls except essential are in person. That could explain it.
    On another topic, it seems the two latest robo polls from SA have come in below par for the Libs..the 2PP figures are flattering to them if anything, I’d make Hindmarsh 51-49 to ALP. So either SA is not doing as well as the ‘talk’ indicates or the ALP has made up ground?

  38. Thomas
    [What are the phone answering habits by age bracket? Do the younger ones hang up not answer land lines when at home….do they bother with landlines if living out of home.]

    This has come up before and I thought pollsters either keep trying till they get the right-sized sample of each age group (i.e. equal to known population proportions) or the data is weighted to allow for the differences. However, if they use a weighted sample then the potential error increases as the sample size decreases.

  43. Breaking news: Mr Abbott, with the cooperation of Cadburys, bribes journalists with chocolate.

    (OK, I know that all visitors are offered chocs, but on Twitter the journos got quite excited about it.)

  44. I’m intrigued by the media bias. Obviously the Murdoch press is going hard against Rudd – but I have a question:

    1. Does anyone here actually like Kevin Rudd – as in, think he made / will make a good Prime Minister?

    If your first response to that question is “he’s better than Abbott!”, then you missed the point. We can add two more questions:

    2. Do you think what he did to Labor for the past 3 years – undermining Gillard during the 2010 election campaign and then continually during her term as PM – was a good thing for the ALP or was it done out of his own self-interest?

    3. Do you think parliamentarians within the Labor party truly support Kevin Rudd – or do you think they only chose him because he polled better?

    My own assessment: No-one likes Kevin. His own ministers don’t like him. Shorten “the King-slayer” doesn’t like him. The ALP don’t like him. The voters don’t like him. And I’ve not seen any comments on here (though perhaps I missed them, would anyone like to come forward now?) saying that Kevin is a fantastic guy and truly deserves to be PM on his own merits.

    The best thing people have to say about Rudd is “he’s not Abbott”. During an election where neither person had held the top job before, that would mean a win for Kevin. The problem is, Kevin has held – and does hold – the top job. Voter sentiment then shifts to “well, you suck, so we may as well get rid of you now… and then see what happens because you’ve had your chance”.

  45. Oh… and that ‘state’ scheme funding requires the states to hand over funding, something that WA and the ACT have already said they won’t do it. Frankly this thing is lining up to be their mining tax… enjoy.

  46. Gauss

    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    kevjohnno @ 130

    Another $1.6bn will be saved from reduced payments of family and other benefits and the income tax collected on PPL payments.
    —————————————————-

    The income tax on PPL collected is tax from the what is the persons “normal” weekly wage. Tax that would be normally added to budget revenue.

    So the “normal” budget revenue is reduced by that amount to syphoned into PPL instead of general revenue.

    So now on top of the PPL figures not accounting for the reduced revenue from the 1.5% cut in company tax rate they have not accounted for a reduction in tax collected adding how much more to the real cost?

  47. Gauss

    Thank you am just about right today, the way to lose weight?? Although I don’t need to lose weight. Was quite pleased came back weighing the same as I did going away, but think I may have lost some, according to my clothes.Going over to terrorize my other child’s family today for a few days 😀

  48. Monkey coasting now….it’s all over folks.
    Let’s abandon all false hope that Kevin Rudd is any match for what has become a juggernaut..

Comments Page 4 of 29
1 … 3 4 5 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *