ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition

This morning brings a ReachTEL national automated poll consistent with the result of the last such poll a fortnight ago, and also with the overall polling trend.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 3500 respondents, conducted on Monday and released today by Channel Seven, has the Coalition leading 53-47, unchanged from the last national ReachTEL poll on August 10. The only primary vote provided at this stage is that Labor is down 1.2% to 35.7%. The poll also finds the Coalition paid parental leave scheme supported by 30% and opposed by 48.4%, Tony Abbott leading Kevin Rudd on ReachTEL’s idiosyncratic preferred prime minister measure by 53.6-46.4, 41.9% believing Labor made the right choice in replacing Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd against 40.5% for the wrong choice and 74% expecting the Coalition to win the election.

We also had yesterday a Galaxy automated phone poll of 575 respondents from the northern Adelaide fringe seat of Wakefield courtesy of The Advertiser, which is presumably treating us progressively to polling from South Australia’s most marginal seats. This one showed Labor’s Nick Champion leading his Liberal challenger Tom Zorich 55-45, suggesting a swing to the Liberals of between 5% and 6%. The primary votes were 45% for Champion and 35% for Zorich.

Further raw material for tea-leaf reading from The Australian, whose lead story yesterday essentially consisted of an account of where its reporters believe things to stand. This was consolidated into a “call of the card” laying out which seats might change hands and with what likelihood. Those of you who might wish to write this off as a contrivance of Murdoch propagandists can feel free, but since the aggregate findings sit pretty well with BludgerTrack, I’m inclined to regard it as welcome intelligence as to how the campaigns are seeing things.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has since been updated with big-sample state breakdowns provided to me by ReachTEL, so some of the numbers cited below have changed quite a bit.

Where BludgerTrack presently counts eight losses for Labor in New South Wales, The Australian’s list sees six as likely if you include Dobell (which I do) plus one strong chance and two possibles. Aside from Dobell (margin 5.2%), the seats listed as likely losses are Labor’s five most marginal: Greenway (0.9%), Robertson (1.1%), Lindsay (1.2%), Banks (1.5%) and Reid (2.7%). However, the picture of a uniform swing breaks down with Werriwa (6.8%) being rated a strong chance and Kingsford Smith (5.2%) and McMahon (7.9%) as possibilities. So while Labor has fires to fight all over Sydney and the central coast, it appears set to be spared in its seats further afield, namely Eden-Monaro (4.2%), Page (4.2%) and Richmond (7.0%). There also appears to be inconsistency in Sydney to the extent that Parramatta (4.4%) and Barton (6.9%) are not listed.

In Victoria, The Australian’s assessment is well in line with BludgerTrack’s call of three Liberal gains in having two listed as likely (Corangamite on 0.3% and La Trobe on 1.7%) and another as a strong chance (Deakin on 0.9%). Labor’s next most marginal seat in Victoria, Chisholm (5.8%), is evidently considered a bridge too far. The only seat featured from South Australia is the “strong chance” of Hindmarsh (6.1%), but BludgerTrack is not quite seeing it that way, the swing currently recorded there being lower than what most observers expect.

Redressing all that slightly is a list of seats which Labor might gain, albeit that it is very short. Brisbane (1.2%) is rated a “likely Coalition loss”, and despite what published polls might say Peter Beattie is rated a strong chance in Forde (1.7%). The Western Australian seat of Hasluck (0.6%) is also listed as a possible Labor gain. However, a report elsewhere in the paper cites Labor MPs saying hopes there have faded, while Andrew Probyn of The West Australian today relates that Liberal polling has them leading 53-47 from 46% of the primary vote against 36% for Labor and 9% for the Greens.

Queensland and Western Australia also have seats listed on the other side of the ledger, especially Queensland. With Queensland we find the one serious breakdown with a BludgerTrack projection, one which in this case I have long been noting as problematic. The Australian lists Moreton (1.2%), Petrie (2.6%) and Capricornia (3.7%) as likely Labor losses, to which are added the strong chance of Blair (4.3%) and the possibility of Kevin Rudd indeed losing Griffith (8.5%). However, the latter seems a bit hard to credit if neighbouring Brisbane is to be deemed a likely Labor gain, and Lilley (3.2%), Rankin (5.4%) and Oxley (5.8%) left off the chopping block.

In Western Australia, Labor’s possible gain of Hasluck is balanced by a possible loss of Brand (3.4%). This tends to confirm my suspicion that BludgerTrack, on which Labor’s numbers in WA have soured considerably recently, is erring slightly on the harsh side with respect to Labor. Bass and Braddon are listed as likely Labor losses for Tasmania, with Lyons (12.3%) only rated a possibility and Franklin (10.8%) not in play. Powered by what may have been an exaggerated result from ReachTEL on the weekend, BludgerTrack is calling it three losses for Labor in Tasmania with only one seat spared. The Northern Territory seat of Lingiari (3.8%) is rated by The Australian as a possible loss, while BludgerTrack has it as likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [ONLY half of Australia’s 12 million voters have decided who they are going to vote for.

    According to a new poll from Auspoll, older voters (60 per cent) outstripped younger voters under 30 (35 per cent) in having already made up their minds before September 7.

    The Coalition also had 65 per cent of its voters locked in while Labor had 56 per cent.

    The survey of almost 1500 people said only 51 per cent of all who responded had definitely decided who they would back.

    Auspoll senior research partner Darryl Nelson said those voters yet to make a decision generally settled outside the major parties.

    “Voters who are yet to decide at all who they will vote for are also most likely to be leaning towards a minor party (other than ALP, Coalition or Greens), and are also most likely to be doing so as a protest vote,” Mr Nelson said.

    “This disenchanted segment of people represents around 10 per cent of the electorate, and they almost certainly represent a key battleground for the rest of the campaign.

    “What the research highlights about this swing segment is that there’s a very clear desire among them to see which party leader can demonstrate the best vision for Australia.

    “This is a key reason they’re still waiting to make up their minds, which suggests both Mr Abbott and Mr Rudd still have the opportunity to take this election by the horns, show some much-needed leadership beyond all the petty politicking, and actually win this election – rather than simply hoping the other guy loses it.”]

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    How on EARTH can this expensive cash lottery create more jobs in a market constrained by opportunity? It is craziness in the extreme!
    It’s very easy to fix problems such as these. Just cut the schools loose from all government funding.
    We can’t wait to see you explain all this at the NPC today, Joe.
    Surely this is a valid concern. Not to nention the abilities and temprament of many of his motley team. Joyce, Miriabella anyone?
    If ever there was need of proof of disgusting temprament and judgement it is this.
    Ross Gittins exposes the widening gap in the financial situations of the rich and the rest.
    The Conversation posits that Australia can’t afford the Coalition’s Fraudband.
    Abbott could be in for a rough ride if he wins – all of his own making.
    This is a thoroughly sickening situation..

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Caroline Wilson wraps up the Essendon saga’s outcomes. And Mr Teflon Andrew Dimitriou escapes once again!
    David Pope with James Hird.
    Pat Campbell with a clever one.
    David Rowe – again with a nautical theme – indicates all that is apparently left in Rudd’s locker.
    Ron Tandberg on the electoral bake off.

  4. So Joe Hockey will release Budget Office costings today showing that the LNP PPL scheme will add $1.1B to the bottom line over the forward estimates.

    Parliamentary Budget Office costings for the forward estimates (2015-16/2016-17)

    GROSS COST of the leave scheme——————-$9.8B
    Removing existing Labor scheme——————-$3.7B
    Removing existing commonwealth/state schemes—–$1.2B
    Other adjustments to government spending/revenue-$1.6B

    NET COST of the leave scheme———————$3.3B
    Income from 1.5% company tax levy—————-$4.4B


    THE Coalition will today counter Kevin Rudd’s most potent political attack by releasing official Parliamentary Budget Office costings that show Tony Abbott’s controversial paid parental leave scheme will actually make money for the budget over the next four years.

    Opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey will use a National Press Club debate with Chris Bowen in Canberra to release costings that show the scheme will add $1.1 billion to the budget bottom line for the two years it operates in the forward estimates. The costings also reveal the Coalition’s proposed 1.5 per cent company tax levy, which exempts small businesses, will raise $4.4bn towards funding the $9.8bn scheme in its first two years. The Prime Minister has repeatedly warned voters the “unfair and unaffordable” scheme would leave taxpayers $22bn worse off over four years, escalating the claim in a television interview last night that took aim at the Opposition Leader’s “temperament” and “judgment”.

  5. BK – The Pope is good.

    I saw a film clip of Hird and his wife on AJ earlier.

    It looks like it has now penetrated that the gravy train is almost over and that he is marked as a drug cheat.

    Essendon will have him back in 12 months but 1 or so years after that the board will decide that he is no longer required and no other club will want him and no lucrative TV sports commentating either.

  6. Gauss @5

    The media has been suckered in by the Coalition saying its policies are costed. There is no $4.4. Billion from the 1.5% levy when compared to the current budget and tax arrangements. It’s a levy that only keeps tax at Current levels for those companies. So how is the $4.4 billion being paid for? As well as the other fluffy $1.6billion from other savings measures. That’s $6billion per year that needs to be found to pay for this. I can just bet the lazy journos don’t add this up. Worse, Labor won’t be able to call it out for he nonsense it is.

  7. labor should replace bowen with kim Carr

    With Kim carr being capable of out bellowing hockey , it will at least put more pressure on hockey

  8. The losers would be the journalists, with headaches after the bellowing , but that is only a minor issue

    I want Kim Carr and joe Hockey debate

  9. Ctari

    I was because I thought we had a better chance of winning.
    I’ve never liked him.
    His little pursed lips, his walk, hisidiotic mangled speech rhythms.
    I was convinced he was ruin everything in 07.
    PB was the only thing that kept me sane because everyone on here was saying Howard was a gonna and all I could see was little Kevin all puffed up and self important saying dumb stuff.
    Then when he failed to go straight to election the day Abbott was elected leader I saw the gutless little turd for the first time for who he really was.
    It’s true I was happy in 07 briefly, but I didn’t care who defeated Howard back then just as long as he was gone.

    The biggest mistake the ALP ever made was electing Rudd leader 7 years ago.

  10. Morning all

    On twitter

    [And I note it takes the demise of an entire footy club to keep Mr Rudd off the front page of the Tele. #WhoKnew]

  11. Third debate tonight. Still a sour taste in the mouth after lefty thugs intimidated the poor make-up lady following the second. Hopefully Rudd and his followers can (at least try to) behave like decent human beings over the next couple of days.

  12. US Markets thumped last night

    Some Syria links –

    Meet Saudi Arabia’s Bandar bin Sultan: The Puppetmaster Behind The Syrian War

    How The Times Have Changed: CIA Files Prove America Helped Saddam Use Chemical Weapons

    Real-Time East Mediterranean Marine Traffic Tracker

    Meet (And Follow) The US Naval Forces Breathing Down Syria’s Neck

    Assad Warns: “Syria Will Never Become A Western Puppet State” – Full Interview

    Loud War Drums Send Gold Into New Bull Market, Oil Soaring

  13. Rosey

    [The biggest mistake the ALP ever made was electing Rudd leader 7 years ago.]

    Just after Tin-Tin became leader I had lunch in Brisbane with a guy who worked in the QLD Cabinet Office.

    His words were ‘They’ll be sorry’.

  14. Even under a comparatively benign Labor govt, the gap between rich and poor has grown larger.

    Libs bewail the “cash splashes” of Labor, yet many of their decisions are no better – just targeted differently.

    [The significant thing about the looming change of government is not that the economy will be much better managed – it won’t be; these days most of the key decisions are made by the econocrats – but that the Coalition will bring to its decisions about taxing and spending a different bias to Labor’s.

    How can I say that? By looking at Tony Abbott’s promises. If you do pay attention it’s as plain as a hundred dollar bill.]

    Read more:

  15. [quote]On duty so early from Menzies house to spread bullshit[/quote]

    Denials won’t make the truth disappear. Lefty thugs behaving like normal lefty thugs harassed a young lady into silence. I hope you’re proud.

  16. Well the gap has only got wider because Swannie and Gillard refused to increase Newstart.

    I’m sure as Gillard settles into her new $1.8Million dollar pad she is giving no thought to the balling single mums in her old seat.

    Newstart and DSP should be increased to $500 a week, and before any Libs complain lets discuss the PPL scheme

  17. River

    Just because Murdoch’s minions write lies and crap, doesnt mean we all have to swallow it,

    What is this leftie bullshit you speak of. Whaf do you call Abbott’s policies such as direct action and his PPL?

  18. question from the floor without notice.

    What time of the day does the debate between Bowen and Sloppy kicks off and is it on TV

    Thanks in advance

  19. [quote]What is this leftie bullshit you speak of.[/quote]

    The backlash she faced on social media. The scum who posted her email and mobile number on-line so people could call her and sort her out.

    Typical leftie intimidation.

  20. mexicanbeemer

    A policy that was not even discussed with the indonesians, and one that would be a complete failure on so many levels. Frankly, it is laughable

  21. William: I have a pseph question for you …

    A few days ago I read that someone had been polled by ReachTEL and that the first question on voting intentions gave options of ALP, Liberal and Green. There was no “other” option.

    Given the nature of ReachTEL polls, namely that you get disconnected if you can’t or don’t follow instructions, is this likely to skew the polls in any meaningful way and, if so, should we just ignore them?

  22. River

    I visited a few other sites recently and discovered, with no surprise, that the “bullying scum” on both sides have a similar line in insults. All pretty low-level, repetitive, and obviously ineffective. And neither lot ever seem to listen when they are corrected as to truth.

  23. troysky @ 10

    The media has been suckered in by the Coalition saying its policies are costed. There is no $4.4. Billion from the 1.5% levy when compared to the current budget and tax arrangements. It’s a levy that only keeps tax at Current levels for those companies. So how is the $4.4 billion being paid for? As well as the other fluffy $1.6billion from other savings measures. That’s $6billion per year that needs to be found to pay for this. I can just bet the lazy journos don’t add this up. Worse, Labor won’t be able to call it out for he nonsense it is.

    With respect what a lot of drivel. You’re conflating the costings for the PPL scheme with a 1.5% reduction in Company Tax which is a separate policy and applies to all companies. In the same link @ 5 this is estimated by some to cost $5B over the forward estimates.

    However, the costings will not include the effect of the Coalition’s cut in the corporate rate from 30 per cent to 28.5 per cent, which is tipped to cost about $5bn over the same period, highlighting the Coalition’s need to find additional savings to fund its election promises. Today’s move marks the first step in the Coalition’s counter-attack against Mr Rudd’s claims that Mr Abbott will “cut, cut and cut” services if he wins on September 7.

    Your so called “fluffy” $1.6B refers to costings by the Parliamentary Budget Office w.r.t increased revenue in personal tax collected and reductions in spending because of reduced family payments.

  24. mexican

    The inequity you refer to is one of the few policies I can’t agree with – but why on earth did Rudd not fix it when he took over? It would have been such a simple way to regain a little street cred, surely?

  25. Actually the Liberals if they are too keep their promises and deliver a surplus will need top cut spending by anywhere between $24Billion and $50Billion

    No matter how we look at it the Liberals have and it has been reported in the business media a secret plan to overhaul government.

    If the 30 pages of proposals plans do exist then release them or the Liberals cannot claim a mandate for implementation

  26. Lizzie,

    I wish Rudd had, to give a person on Newstart or DSP $500 a week would be a vast improvement on the current situation.

    Anyone that has ever been on welfare will tell you to live on that sort of money is barely an existence. its a disgrace that we has a rich country seem unable to provide a proper safety net.

    Regarding the bludgers, guess what do something about them rather than punishing everyone on either DSP or Newstart

  27. Look for me tonight at the “forum”, they really ought to improve their screening. I’ll be coming in an undecided voter and no doubt I will have mind up my mind after listening to both leaders as to who has the best plan for the future.

  28. jeffemu @ 33

    question from the floor without notice.

    What time of the day does the debate between Bowen and Sloppy kicks off and is it on TV

    Thanks in advance

    12.30- 1.30 pm on Sky & ABC24; National Press Club, Canberra

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