Queensland is the most right-leaning state electorally, having been the birthplace of One Nation and the only state ever to deliver four seats to the Coalition at a six-seat half-Senate election. It thus stands as a strong prospect for delivering a four right, two left result of the kind that might fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Senate. The state is correspondingly weak for the Greens, whose only success came in 2010 on the back of a surge in support as voters in Queensland deserted Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd. The Democrats performed rather better in winning a seat at every election from 1980 until their collapse in 2004, in part due to Labor’s tendency to deliver the Democrats their surplus after falling short of a third seat. At their high water mark election in 1998, One Nation overcame the punitive preference treatment that thwarted them every other time by scoring a quota off their own bat, their candidate Heather Hill winning a seat at the expense of Nationals incumbent Bill O’Chee. However, Hill’s election was overturned when the High Court ruled by a 4-3 majority that her dual British citizenship made her ineligible, and her seat went to One Nation’s number two candidate, Len Harris. Pauline Hanson meanwhile failed in her bid for the new lower house seat of Blair, being squeezed out on preferences after leading the primary vote.
In 2004 the Coalition achieved an unprecedented success in winning a fourth seat, which was the decisive factor in delivering the Howard government a Senate majority in its final term. This involved the election of three members off the Liberal ticket in addition to the leading Nationals candidate, newcomer Barnaby Joyce. The triumph belonged less to the Nationals, whose vote fell to 6.6% from 9.1% in 2001, than the Liberals, whose vote rose from 34.8% to 38.3%. The decisive point in the count came with the exclusion of Len Harris, who narrowly failed to overtake his former mentor Pauline Hanson who was running separately from One Nation. Had it been otherwise, the Fishing Party preferences that pushed Joyce clear of Hanson would have stayed locked up with One Nation and the seat would have gone to the Greens, owing to the Coalition parties having Hanson and One Nation last on their preference tickets. Joyce pulled ahead of the Liberals at the last count to take the fifth rather than sixth seat, a result decided by a large number of Hanson’s below-the-line votes going against the ticket.
The Coalition ran a joint ticket at the 2007 election for the first time since 1997, with the Nationals taking third position, and went one better with the Liberal National Party merger in 2010, with Barnaby Joyce second on the ticket. The swing to Labor in 2007 squeezed out minor candidates for the second election running, the six seats this time dividing evenly between the major parties. Three years later the Labor vote plunged 9.8%, as the 5.6% two-party swing in the lower house was compounded by a flight from Labor to the Greens. That left Labor barely clear of two quotas with a Senate vote of just 29.4%, while the Greens vote surged 5.4% to 12.8%. Such was the meagreness of the Labor surplus that the Greens needed further preferences from smaller parties to get the 1.5% over their base vote needed to reach a quota. The substantial right surplus was absorbed by the Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party, which had 0.83 quotas at the final count, and was thus about 2.4% short of winning a fourth seat for the right at the expense of the Greens.
Labor’s ticket will be headed by Chris Ketter, the state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, who replaces the retiring John Hogg, a former official with the union. Hogg had been in the Senate since 1996, and became its president in the middle of 2008. The second and third positions remain unchanged from the 2007 election, with Claire Moore in second position and Mark Furner in third. Claire Moore is a member of the Left and first entered the Senate at the 2001 election, securing preselection at the expense of incumbent Brenda Gibbs who fell foul of a complicated factional quarrel over the ultimately worthless prize of the Petrie preselection. This will be her third successive election in the number two position on the ticket. Mark Furner is a former state vice-president of the National Union of Workers who was elected from number three in 2007, being the beneficiary of Labor’s strong performance in Queensland at that election to become Labor’s only successful number three candidate in Queensland six six-seat half-Senate elections commenced in 1990. His prospects for a second term can accordingly be considered as rather gloomy. Moore and Furner both lined up with Kevin Rudd over the course of his successive leadership challenges during the current term, Moore being rated a particularly stalwart supporter.
Two of the three Senators elected from the Liberal National Party ticket at the 2007 election, Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell, will be bowing out at the end of their current terms. Boswell’s retirement at the age of 70 offered no grounds for surprise, but Boyce’s decision to spend more time with her family occurred against an acknowledged backdrop of threats to her preselection from forces in the party who perceived her as too moderate. The one ongoing Senator is Ian Macdonald, who entered the Senate from the top of the Liberal ticket at the 1990 election and retained it in 1996, 2001 and 2007. McDonald served as minister in portfolios including local government, fisheries, forestry and conservation from after the 1998 election until his demotion in June 2006, and has been a shadow parliamentary secretary since Tony Abbott assumed the leadership in December 2009.
The second position on the ticket is James McGrath, who made a name for himself as an up-and-comer as the director of the party’s spectacularly successful 2012 state election campaign. Less happily, he had also been compelled to resign from a position as political adviser to London lord mayor Boris Johnson for telling an interviewer that Caribbean migrants could “go if they don’t like it here”. McGrath was long thought to have the succession to Alex Somlyay in the lower house Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax lined up, but then set the cat among the pigeons by instead nominating for an unsuccessful tilt in the neighbouring seat of Fisher, which Mal Brough had long been cultivating ahead of a move against Peter Slipper. McGrath promised Fisher preselectors that he would not use Fairfax as a fallback option if he was unsuccessful, and accordingly set his sights on a Senate berth instead.
The third position has gone to Matt Canavan, a staffer to Barnaby Joyce, with fourth place going to former Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry president David Goodwin, whom Ron Boswell backed as his successor. Among a large field of other contenders was party treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, who will instead be accommodated in Barnaby Joyce’s vacancy and thus serve out a term that will continue until 2017.
The Greens’ lead candidate is Adam Stone, who ran in Mount Coot-tha at the state election and was touted during the campaign as the party’s “senior candidate”. Stone has ”worked in policy roles within the State and Commonwealth public services and as an advisor in the Federal Parliament”. Other candidates for the preselection were Libby Connors, a history lecturer at the University of Southern Queensland, and Jim McDonald, a former union official and industrial relations lecturer, who respectively ran in Yeerongpilly and Noosa at the state election.
Another strong prospect for a Senate seat is Katter’s Australian Party, which has recruited a high-profile candidate in the person of country singer James Blundell, whose first brush with politics came when he provided the official song for the “no” campaign during the 1999 republic referendum. Blundell sold over 400,000 records in his musical career, but was compelled to file for bankruptcy in 2010 amid declining career fortunes and an unsuccessful investment in a recording studio. Katter’s enlistment of Bludell, who had not previously been a member of the party, displeased some who presumably had their own ideas about the Senate nomination, with vice-president Kevin Brown resigning his position and describing Blundell’s endorsement as “a slap in the face to every loyal member”. Blundell also put noses out of joint by voicing support for gay marriage, albeit in equivocal terms. However, his electoral prospects have received a considerable boost from a preference deal with Labor that will see the party placed second on their Senate preference order in Queensland, in contrast to every other state where the Greens are second.
This is probably the easiest state to call for the Senate
The ALP will definitely get over 29% primary, The Liberal National will likely get over 42% or just be slightly under it.
With the Rights preference locked in with Katter, and ALP preferencing Katter over the Greens, it is pretty likely it will be 2 ALP, KAT, 3 LNP
Nice picture of Adam Stone. Seems to be a dead ringer for Kate Fehrman in NSW!
Am I missing something? If Blundell declared bankruptcy, how is able to run as a candidate?
Bankruptcy is one of disqualifications as a candidate, according to the constitution.
I think that this may turn out as a repeat of the 1998 result but with different minor parties.
The ALP`s run of not winning a 3rd Senate seat in Queensland, at half-Senate elections, runs back not only to 1990 but to 1943 (before proportional representation), if the more that half but less than whole Senate elections where the Senate was enlarged are excluded (1949 & 1984) (there were no Senate vacancies for the continuing half of the Senate filled at a half-Senate election in QLD under proportional representation, despite the attempts of Gough).
This will be an interesting Senate result in every state because of KAP and PUP. We may see many micro-parties in the senate this election.
Fishing, KAP and FFP all a fair chance in Queensland.
Blake Andrew, the prohibition is only against ‘undischarged bankrupts’. (see s 44 of the Constitution).
Queensland is a fruit basket of possibilities. The big unknown factor is the impact of the Katter Party and Palmer United (Sound like a football team) and influence over the result
With most expected to be voting above the line the last seat could go to each and any way. Preference flow should benefit labor should Palmer or Katter not gain traction
We have had a mixed result outcome using the ABC Senate calculator
This is one seat that is hard to call but by all analysis the Greens are not in season
In 2007 the system used to count the vote, the method of segmented distribution, delivered a seat to the labor party when by all other accounts the greens should have won the last position. (If you recount the ballot with only the last 7 candidates standing (3 ALP, 3 LNP and 1 Grn) the Greens are elected, The same result using Meek
This will be a seat that scrutineers will have to secure a copies of the below-the-line preference data files as thd count progresses should the results be too close to call based on above=the-line allocations. Without it it will be impossible to monitor or
The Australian Electoral Commission has indicated that it will not be providing copies of the data-file used to determine the results of the election. Without access to this is would be impossible to verify the integrity and accuracy of the computerised preference count in a close toss up ballot.
Its like going to the supermarket and trying to keep tabs on the cost of your purchases without a receipt and running total
There is no justification or reason why copies of the preference data file can not or should not be available for independent analysis or review as the count progresses.
Clive Palmer may have a few more words to say on this issue as will the Greens and other parties concerned about the lack of transparency in the data-entry process
Group Ticket Preference flow (coma delimited)
ID ,Group Name ,Preference Flow ,
A ,Animal Justice Party , ASXP , FFP , UN1 , DLP , GRN , ALP , LNP , PUP , KAP ,
B ,Liberal National Party of Queensland , LNP , DLP , FFP , PUP , UN1 , KAP , ALP , ASXP , GRN ,
C ,, UN1 , KAP , FFP , DLP , PUP , GRN , ASXP , LNP , ALP ,
D ,Australian Independents , ASXP , DLP , UN1 , FFP , KAP , GRN , LNP , PUP , ALP ,
E ,Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party , ASXP , UN1 , KAP , ALP , GRN , FFP , DLP , PUP , LNP ,
F ,Australian Voice , ASXP , DLP , FFP , PUP , LNP , UN1 , KAP , ALP , GRN ,
G ,Australian Labor Party , ALP , KAP , GRN , ASXP , DLP , UN1 , PUP , FFP , LNP ,
H ,One Nation , DLP , FFP , UN1 , KAP , PUP , GRN , ASXP , LNP , ALP ,
H ,One Nation , DLP , FFP , UN1 , KAP , PUP , GRN , ASXP , ALP , LNP ,
I ,Australia First Party , FFP , ASXP , KAP , DLP , PUP , ALP , LNP , ALP , UN1 , GRN
J ,Socialist Equality Party , GRN , UN1 , KAP , FFP , DLP , ASXP , PUP , LNP , ALP ,
J ,Socialist Equality Party , LNP , ALP , GRN , UN1 , KAP , FFP , DLP , ASXP , PUP ,
J ,Socialist Equality Party , ALP , GRN , UN1 , KAP , FFP , DLP , ASXP , PUP , LNP ,
K ,Australian Protectionist Party , KAP , DLP , FFP , UN1 , PUP , ASXP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
L ,Building Australia Party , ASXP , FFP , DLP , UN1 , KAP , PUP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
M ,Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues) , ASXP , FFP , DLP , KAP , PUP , UN1 , LNP , GRN , ALP ,
N ,Liberal Democrats , UN1 , KAP , FFP , ASXP , DLP , PUP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
O ,Stop The Greens , UN1 , KAP , FFP , ASXP , DLP , PUP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
P ,Pirate Party , GRN , ASXP , UN1 , DLP , ALP , LNP , KAP , PUP , FFP ,
Q ,The Greens , GRN , ASXP , ALP , PUP , DLP , UN1 , FFP , KAP , LNP ,
R ,Stop CSG , ASXP , FFP , GRN , KAP , ALP , PUP , LNP , DLP , UN1 ,
S ,Stable Population Party , FFP , ASXP , KAP , UN1 , GRN , ALP , LNP , DLP , PUP ,
S ,Stable Population Party , FFP , ASXP , KAP , UN1 , ALP , LNP , GRN , DLP , PUP ,
S ,Stable Population Party , FFP , ASXP , KAP , UN1 , LNP , GRN , ALP , DLP , PUP ,
T ,Australian Christians , DLP , FFP , PUP , LNP , UN1 , KAP , ALP , GRN , ASXP ,
U ,, UN1 , PUP , GRN , KAP , FFP , LNP , ALP , DLP , ASXP ,
V ,Katter’s Australian Party , KAP , UN1 , DLP , FFP , PUP , ALP , LNP , ASXP , GRN ,
W ,The Australian Republicans , UN1 , KAP , FFP , ASXP , DLP , PUP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
X ,Family First , FFP , UN1 , DLP , PUP , KAP , LNP , ALP , GRN , ASXP ,
Y ,Australian Democrats , ASXP , KAP , GRN , FFP , DLP , PUP , ALP , LNP , UN1 ,
Y ,Australian Democrats , ASXP , KAP , GRN , FFP , DLP , PUP , LNP , ALP , UN1 ,
Z ,Democratic Labour Party (DLP) , DLP , KAP , FFP , LNP , ALP , PUP , UN1 , ALP , ASXP , GRN
AA ,Sex Party , ASXP , UN1 , GRN , KAP , ALP , LNP , PUP , DLP , FFP ,
AB ,Shooters and Fishers , FFP , ASXP , UN1 , DLP , KAP , PUP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
AC ,Uniting Australia Party , FFP , KAP , UN1 , DLP , LNP , ASXP , ALP , GRN , PUP ,
AD ,Rise Up Australia Party , DLP , FFP , LNP , PUP , KAP , ALP , UN1 , ASXP , GRN ,
AE ,No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics , FFP , DLP , ASXP , KAP , PUP , UN1 , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
AF ,Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party , DLP , LNP , FFP , KAP , PUP , ALP , UN1 , ASXP , GRN ,
AG ,Palmer United Party , PUP , UN1 , FFP , GRN , ASXP , KAP , LNP , DLP , ALP ,
AH ,Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party , FFP , ASXP , KAP , PUP , UN1 , DLP , ALP , LNP , GRN ,
AH ,Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party , FFP , ASXP , KAP , PUP , UN1 , DLP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
AI ,Smokers Rights , UN1 , KAP , FFP , ASXP , DLP , PUP , LNP , ALP , GRN ,
AJ ,Secular Party of Australia , ASXP , GRN , ALP , UN1 , LNP , PUP , KAP , DLP , FFP
I have undertaken a rigorous and independent review of each party’s likely success in each of the states senate elections. As I am not a member of any political party, I hope this is a fair and robust assessment.
I use a 1000-repetition monte carlo analysis where each party’s vote randomly varies around a mean, and where preferences are determined as per officially registered tickets. Furthermore, I have baselined my model by ensuring alignment with Antony Green’s senate calculator.
For the “expected” values in Queensland, I am estimating 40% LNP, 29% ALP, 10% GRN, 4% KAP. The variation around these expected values is +/-6% for LNP, +/-4% for ALP, +/-2% for GRN and +/-1.2% for KAP. This means 83% of the vote is for these four parties – the same vote as for the main three parties last time round.
Additionally, we expect PUP, SXP, FF, DLP, Shooters, LDP, One Nation, Hemp, Christians to all poll 1%+, with the other 23 tickets sharing the balance of the 4% vote. Please tell me where I am wrong with these assessments. (all parties have a +/- variation, proportional to their vote).
From here, it’s easy. Any single set of numbers will affect the order of elimination which will affect who’s elected. So it is appropriate to apply statistical techniques used in industry to conduct monte carlo analysis of a range of options – this will allow us to calculate a statistically significant likelihood of election of each candidate. In 1 minute, I can run 1000 simulations with each simulation equivalent to typing in a full set of numbers into Antony Green’s online senate calculator.
Typing in a single scenario, as anyone knows, can be manipulated and used to suit particular pre-conceived biases and to push a point. Anyway… to the result of my analysis…
On the left, my forecast of the Greens vote is enough to get them elected 75% of the time, with DEM a 5% chance, AI 5% and hemp 2%. The ALP also gets 2 elected 90% of the time – this means there’s about a 70% chance of an ideological 3-3 split.
On the right, the LNP has a 35% chance of 3 elected with the above votes. The balance is a complete tossup – 40% KAP, 17% AFLP, 12% ONP, 8% Christians, and will depend on minute variations in vote and order of elimination.
You have over inflated some of the minor parties. You really need to start from a base in 2007 and 2010. You have also inflated the Green vote. You need to also consider recent polls which would indicate the support of the main players. You than adjust these to allow for expected voter support for other minor parties. The first group can generate a 0.5% advantage
Having established a base you then need to adjust each of the main percentages to determine the various high and low thresholds based on preference flows. In most cases minor parties have placed the main players last.
allocatons of minor parties is tricky but you can assume that if they stood in 2010 their votes will be the same or possibly less. New players is the hard part.
I certainly do not get the democrats elected. I expect they will poll at best 1.6% more likely 0.7%
HEMP will less than 1%.
With a large number of parties and candidates the main parties tend to be teh favorite. In QLD the Katter and Palmer factors would put them at an advantage, The christian groups you need to treat as one and determine which will out poll the others. This tends to be Family first but can also be DLP. You also have to work out who is most likely be the wasted quota.
I would determinately use the ABC calculator as the test model as the Australian system is not proportional. Surplus Transfer values is based on the number of papers not the value of the vote and the method of segmented distribution plays a significant role in the possible outcome. This can be tested by excluding all candidates except the last seven expected to be standing.
OpenSTV has a number of different electoral systems also.
The Greens do not pick up any preferences and even less if the ALP surplus is minimal I think the LNP will end up holding the Wasted Quota
Queensland is a fruit basket but Democrats are not in season. A useless bunch.
All your percentage allcoation must equal 100% and not the percentage variation “Swing” from 2010. Try and work backwards to bring your assessment in line with the 2010 data. If it is greater than the Polls start to question your assessments.
Use this data as a base to start with
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/sqld/
I suggest you set up a spreadsheet and and start working on min max thresholds of the main parties. Use the historical data and the polls. You should be able to wind back your assessment to match 2010 results based on poll swings..
1. I have a stats degree and I work as a financial modeller.
2. My model is very sophisticated and several MB and uses random number generation to change within bounds each party’s primaries.
3. From a given set of primaries my model elects and eliminates candidates in the right order using the rules applied by the aec. My order matches the abc senate calculator every time for a given Set of primaries.
Up until this point it’s fine. The model self adjusts to 100% and it runs itself. There is no discretion on my behalf “guessing” or “suspecting” flows or unused near-quotas – I use the registered tickets rather than hunches.
4. Here’s the crystal ball stuff. I estimate primaries based on
a) 2010 aec data for each state
b) bludger track primary national swings
c) individual adjustments for each state’s own swing as per bludger track
d) reducing by ratio to achieve a target “major party” vote, 83% for qld
e) minor parties are simply guessed based on 2010 votes, but are usually lower as there are now more parties contesting each state’s Senate.
Finally I estimate a symmetric uncertainty to each party’s vote. For a party anticipated to have 20%+ vote I estimate variation of +/- 15% of their own vote (so 50% +/- 6%, 20% +/- 3%. Variation increases as we start trying to guess micro parties’ votes.
I’m happy to be called wrong on my estimations of votes. But GIVEN these votes my model provides a fair assessment of parties likely chances.
What range of votes and variations do you believe? I’m happy to run the 1000 scenarios based on your estimate of primaries and variations
Hello Truth Seeker – I notice Galaxy had PUP at 6.5% in Queensland. KAP got 11% at the QLD election (but I’m expecting that to drop significantly). Have you thought about adjusting your modelling based on these numbers?
This is my regular “above the line” guide for voting in the senate. It shows you where your vote is likely to end up if you vote above the line, based on a limited set of candidates who have a chance of winning.
http://www.ozpolitic.com/electoral-reform/senate-group-voting-tickets-above-line-guide.html#guides
Thanks to truth seeker for the info on which parties are in with a chance (and please contact to me to discuss some ideas I have). Thanks also to the AEC for issuing the tickets in csv form.
@Speaker
Great question! I’ve updated my analysis and using 6% PUP I get the following results:
LNP: 2, +50% likely for 3rd
ALP: 2
GRN: 90% likely
KAP: 25%
PUP: 30%
Other 5%: either DEM, Coal Seam Gas, Christians, AFLP, Aust Indpts or HEMP.
I’m getting more possible winners here than anywhere else I think!
Morgan says 7% for QLD PUP today. That must make a senate seat very likely.
I do not think you can or should indicate a percentage of likelyhood. It does not work that way. Best to show max and min percentage of the total vote. I do not see PUP and Katter getting 6% no where near it at best 4% combined more like 3%. FFP has a better chance in Victoria than PUP and Katter in taking a spot from The LNP. I also think Assange will get 2% maybe more. depending on what happens with the Greens. Sex will poll around 3.5%. The reason I think your stats are flawed in that there is NO WAY your other will have any chance of w and you have left off Wiki who are better placed in terms of preferences than ALP, PUP and all Others
PUP (2%) will do much better than KATTER (1%)
It’s either LNP 3 or LNP 2 plus FFP
and ALP 2 Plus Greens (Outside chance ALP + Wiki)
Much will depend on the extent that Wikileaks can man the polls. There vote will come from the Greens.
The fact that you have given HEMP more votes than WIKI makes me think you smoking it.
I expect WIKI to go above 1-2% and on par with Katter or PUP. Greens should fall down to 9%
I show max and min % for each group and test those of the potential outcome. The wasted quota and order of exclusion are fundamental to the outcome. I suggest you try counting Queensland 2007 results and do a what if on Victoria 2007 to test your model. It should have shown up the flaws in the way the vote is counted. Its not proportional but semi proportional
Sorry ..the above was aimed at Victoria results
Sorry ..the above was aimed at Victoria results
Queensland is a fruit basket
What is clear is that One Nation will not be a runner.
QLD will be made up from these groups all others fall by the wayside
ASXP , DLP , FFP , PUP , LNP , UN1 , KAP , ALP , GRN
There are reports that Palmer United Party has 8% support which Clive claims 2/3rds com from the LNP and 1/3rd ALP
If this is true Palmer could out poll the Greens
I do not see One Nation being elected a claimed by ABC Antony Green. I have had Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party elected that ALP 2 LNP 2 PUP 1 and AFLP 1
It’s really is fruit basket in Queensland
I guess we will know sunday.. When the 0primary vote tally becomes clear
With a mixed basket.
The AEC is refusing to provide Scrutineers copies of the BTL preference data-files. This data should be published online progressively. the fact that scrutineers will not have access to copies of this file will bring the scrutiny and conduct of the election into disrepute.
It is akin to shopping at a supermarket and not be given a receipt and a running total as goods are being scanned. Without kt you do not kn ow if the costs charged are correct.
There is no justification why this data should not be available. Without it it is impossible to verify the integrity or validity of the data-entry process.
Palmer, The Greens, ALP and LNP will all be seeking copies of this data file.
The AEC MUST make it available if public confidence in the computerised election count is to be maintained.
D@W – There’s potential for the Fishin’ party to get a seat. There’s a critical elimination near the end where they or FFP win the harvest.
Then it will be a fish and fruit fest under the palmer trees.
The whole process would benefit if the AEC respected the need for an open and transparent counting procedure and progressively published the BTL data-entry data-file.
We will be sending out an email to all campaign managers asking candidates to demand that copies of the BTL preference data file be subject to proper and full scrutiny.
Not providing access to this data bring the whole election into disrepute. There is no excuse or reason not to published it progressively. It is IMPOSSIBLE to scrutinise a computer based election count without verify the integrity of this file. If the AEC is incapable of self regulation the Parliament will have to act to restore confidence in the election process. The media should also be demanding this data be made available.
The votes have consolidated and Palmer has come out much stronger then first predicted. Some polls even have placed Palmer at 10% in Queensland. The Greens being the biggest loser in the fruit salad.
Prediction
The LNP will win 3 seats the ALP 2 and PUP 1