Yesterday’s Essential Research release concludes what I’d normally regard in the off season as a weekly cycle of poll results, making this an appopriate moment for a situation report. News reports yesterday were full of talk of a shift back to Labor based on a three-point lift in their primary vote from Newspoll, which neatly encapsulates what’s wrong with mainstream journalism’s reportage of opinion polling. For all The Australian’s success in marketing it as the gold standard, Newspoll is not – and indeed, does not claim to be – any more immune to statistical noise than any other poll. This particular shift was undoubtedly more noise than signal, coming as it did off a below-par result in the previous week’s poll.
For a more meaningful read of the situation you should refer to a poll aggregate, of which the one most readily to hand is of course BludgerTrack. However, you can find much the same story being told by Julian King at Pottinger (who has the Coalition at 53.6%), Simon Jackman (53.5%), Mark the Ballot (52.7%), Kevin Bonham (52.3%) and the AFR’s Poll of Polls (51.8%) (with apologies to any I’ve missed, like Andrew Catsaras’s which only appears on Insiders). Much of the variation comes down to the weight given to Essential Research, which is excluded altogether by Mark the Ballot and downweighted by BludgerTrack for having gone off trend.
Mark the Ballot’s charts offer a better visual representation of what emerges from the numbers coming out of BludgerTrack, which is that the rate of Labor’s decline slowed this week. The current output of the BludgerTrack model has Labor down 0.4% since this time a week ago (note that this isn’t exactly the same thing as the “last week” comparison on the sidebar, which reflects the model’s result at that time rather than its current retrospective evaluation) compared with 0.7% in the week to August 17, 0.7% in the week to August 10 and 0.5% in the week to August 3. As Mark the Ballot and BludgerTrack concur, the rot set in around mid-July, perhaps a fortnight before the election was called.
Of course, it’s a little too late in the game for a mere slowing of the momentum against them to do Labor much good. It would take a black swan event to return Labor to parity in the 12 days still available to them, the potential nature of which is by definition impossible to foresee. Labor’s other hope of course is that the polls and the aggregates derived from them are fundamentally wrong. A favourite argument of those predisposed to this view is that the online polling of Essential Research is telling a different story from polls using other methods, having had Labor at a post-Gillard high of 50-50 for the past two weeks. Nate Silver, it is noted, gave online polling the highest collective score in his post-match report after the presidential election, finding an average error of 2.1% compared with 3.5% for live interview phone polls and 5.0% for “robopolls”.
However, I would observe that the pollsters at the top end of Silver’s list are a mix of live phone interview and internet polls, with the live phone interview average dragged down by a number of poor performers at the bottom end (the most spectacular example being Gallup). Given the strong performances of Newspoll and Galaxy at recent state elections, at least on two-party preferred, it would require a leap of faith to conclude that either belongs in the latter camp. If anything, the risk appears to be on the downside for Labor. Essential Research aside, the big anomaly of the polling picture is that national polls have been kinder to Labor than electorate-level ones, a phenomenon by no means unique to the robo-polls (and it should be noted that the disparity seems to be lower in the case of Galaxy’s automated polling, suggesting that “house” as much as “method” bias has been at work here).
Now to some observations on the state-level projections. Labor received a large bounce in New South Wales and Queensland after Kevin Rudd’s return, bringing them into parity with the 2010 election result in the former case and well in front of it in the latter. However, in Victoria the move to Labor was more subdued. Three weeks after the Rudd comeback, BludgerTrack had the Coalition’s national lead at 50.5-49.5 and pointed to swings in Labor’s favour of 0.6% in New South Wales and 2.4% in Queensland, while going 3.7% in the other direction in Victoria (remembering that the 2010 election gave Labor its best result in Victoria since the Second World War). So far as BludgerTrack is concerned, the decline in Labor’s fortunes since has been driven by New South Wales, where the swing has now caught up with Victoria’s. That being so, one could perhaps hypothesise that it’s the Daily Telegraph wot’s winning it.
As for Queensland, that 2.4% swing to Labor is still there as far as BludgerTrack is concerned, inconsistent as that may be with reports of internal polling, the weekend Newspoll showing Labor going heavily backwards across eight Liberal National Party marginals, and a series of grim results for Labor coming out of Griffith and Forde. I keep waiting for new data from Queensland to square the circle by showing the other recent results to have been anomalous, and it keeps not happening. Of the last nine data points available to me from Queensland, which go back as far as August 7, only one fails to show a swing to Labor. The one exception is the sturdiest result of the bunch – an 800-sample Galaxy poll conducted late in the first week of the campaign. The rest are sub-samples from national polls, some (but not all) with very small samples.
The samples are smaller still for Western Australia and South Australia, although there are enough of them that it would be hoped that aggregating them would get you fairly close to a real world figure. On this basis, Labor’s once promising position in Western Australia relative to the 2010 result seems to have deteriorated significantly. In South Australia, Labor is rating a little better than media chatter (not to mention the weekend’s Hindmarsh poll) suggests they should be, though not to the extent of indicating an improvement on the 2010 status quo in terms of seats.
One final thought. With Labor holding 72 seats out of 150, it seems very likely that they will need a swing in their favour if they are going to win the election. Out of 17 national and 39 electorate-level polls conducted during the campaign (not counting a small number of electorate polls involving Greens or independent sitting members), not a single one has shown such a thing.
Zoid.
Taa muchly.
TP @ 1241…I have been a model of thrift and saving. Barely a sou has been spent by me on Kev in recent times. There’s no call to splash out. He is on his own spree and needs no help from by-standing bludgers.
@peterk/1250
So you just leave it like the other countries did?
Right, that just ignorance.
The stimulus package was needed, end of story.
crikey whitey
sorry about the free-range tirade against mia freedman and wendy harmer.
I’m just so over successful women who don’t have time for their fellow female beings.
They seem to have lost their mojo, the bit that made them successful in the first place.
Seem like blokes, actually. Full of themselves.
And all so protective of their male offspring.
Brings out the cantankerousness in me. Because I’m for equal rights.
Labor does that for me, rather than any other party.
@kezza2
I’m sure I can do without your mouth to mouth expertise!
You are so ill informed about Tony Abbott & I find it totally disgusting the crap & lies you spun in your so called comments!
Do you know Tony Abbott? Do you know his wife or daughters?
No you bloody don’t!
So just shut your mouth, go burn your bra & keep your filth to yourself.
am i not getting out enough – haven;t last 10 days gone very well for labor??? what am i missing. polls will slowly turn. barring some murdoch anti democracy terrorist missle strikes labor can get there – they have reason and talent and policy and track record all on their side, and buffoonery on other
Did we really have to put up with Boerwar’s weeks long temper tantrum just to have some bloody fools tell us all ALP supporters think the sun shines out of Rudd’s posterior?
DO YOU CLOWNS KNOW HOW MUCH WE SUFFERED!
*cries*
Geoffrey it’s been a strange period lately. Both the majors are all over the place.
Oh, hello Wesley.
How are you today?
Who says it was needed? This treasury which cant get any projections right..33bn out with revenue (nearly 10% of total receipts!!!) in just 3 months?
The Asian economies NEVER caught the GFC, it was a European /American thing. Why do we keep talking about the Asian century, then behave like our economy is still tied to mother England?
[Lefty E @Lefty_E2 1m
#imvotingliberal because PM nodding for a full minute without saying anything will totally PSYCH OUR ENEMIES OUT. #ausvotes]
The Treasury gives Labor a range for their forecasts… Labor always selected the most rosey picture each and every time.
Then they cry crocodile tears when it doesn’t happen
@peterk/1260
And who was more linked to Europe/America at the time?
@geoffrey
Wtf are you smoking?
Are you really serious about your comments?
I think you need to go back to where you have been hiding for the last 6 years!
@Sean/1262
So Coalition Party do the opposite?
Mr Labor Plant, I think you need watering.
Treasury denied they give a range.
[1245
Fran Barlow
briefly
Strange. I thought this was only about compassion or empathy. It is, in any case, about loss.
From the POV of those who have suffered, it obviously is, but from the perspective of policy choice, it obviously isn’t.]
I think it is all about shocking loss and how we respond to it – how we react to those among us who have experienced hell. Perhaps we are not very good at expressing support for each other, especially when the means are bureaucratic. The reflex seems to be to stand back, to let the losses lie where they happen to fall. Is this where prudence and indifference meet, fall in love, have children and call them regulations?
So Wesley, do YOU know Abbott?
ST
Not much use in forecasts that you can drive a truck through.
@ DisplayName – good thanks mate!
Makes me laugh to read some of the ludicrous comments made by lefties on here!
Great fun to pick the shit out of them & see the rant & delusional responses from them! Lol
Sean Tisme@1262
Nope thats a lie.
Treasury give only one figure
[1262
Sean Tisme
The Treasury gives Labor a range for their forecasts… Labor always selected the most rosey picture each and every time.]
This is not the case. Treasury make their forecasts. That’s that. There is no cherry-picking.
[ We were warned, Howard reveals
October 17 2002
By Mark Forbes, Marian Wilkinson
Prime Minister John Howard has revealed that a report listing Bali as a potential terrorist target was received by Australia before last weekend’s bombings.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/10/16/1034561213093.html ]
incompetent government
[Wesley Rickard
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 12:05 am | PERMALINK
@kezza2
I’m sure I can do without your mouth to mouth expertise!
You are so ill informed about Tony Abbott & I find it totally disgusting the crap & lies you spun in your so called comments!
Do you know Tony Abbott? Do you know his wife or daughters?
No you bloody don’t!
So just shut your mouth, go burn your bra & keep your filth to yourself.]
Feeling a bit threatened by a woman, Wes?
Better wrap yourself up in cotton wool.
Does that feel better, sweetie?
Want some hot milk now?
Let me stroke your fevered brow and I’ll tell you a story.
Once upon a time there was a bloke, a benighted bloke for sure, but he thought he had the keys to the kingdom, and he had three lovely daughters.
He also had some magic beans, except they were has-beens, like pine nuts, etc. He even tried to brandis some magic.
But nothing worked.
Are you asleep yet?
Let me soothe that furrowed brow.
So brave sir tony ventured into the forest. With some dread (oh, sorry, I meant, Cred) -lin crumbs.
Unfortunately they got Robb-ed by a bloke playing hockey.
And, it was all over bar the shouting . . .
Oh, darling Wes, are you awake again? It’s okay. You’re just having a daymare.
Yes, I know, brave sir tone should never put his daughters up for sex . . ual appraisal.
Yes, I know, brave sir tone wasn’t very nice about that.
Yes, let’s not vote him in. He doesn’t deserve to be PM.
Yes, yes, Wes, tone is very benighted.
But everyone seemed to know that but you, Wes.
Night Night Be-Nighted Wes.
Ah, I have such terrible habits. Now I feel bad :P.
I think I will move to a safer topic.
david, how goes your babys … *looks around, sees kezza* … grandparenting?
Z/1263
Yes of course the Asian economies are integrated with the US/Europe, so they would have felt the effects before us..we would have had notice…
As it turns out they were hardly affected…so we wouldnt have needed to have anywhere near the amount of stimilus that we did.
The slowdown it western economies is a long term and structural linked to globalisation. Asian & Latin American economies have still been growing strongly throughout.
Why not turn Garden Island into the second Sydney Airport? 🙂
@ Henry – I have met him a number of occasions!
Your point being???
I will not put up with outright lies & falsehoods thrown around about his character !
The Gillard feminists who created all this crap have a lot to answer for.
kezza, you have a knack for fun imagery.
http://melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/conferences/david_thompson.pdf
Page 6:
BS national headline rate declined to 5.7% in September 2009 (658, 600 persons)
• ABS 96 600 long term unemployed people (52 weeks plus) September 2009
• Treasury revises down estimate of peak unemployment to 6.75% by end
June quarter 2010 (cf. previous forecast 8.5% for end December 2010)(MYEF – 2 November 2009)
• Treasury notes reduction in working hour
s since GFC equivalent to 200 000 FT jobs
• Youth unemployment rate exceeds 12% nationally and much higher in some regions
• National unemployment figures mask significantly higher levels in disadvantaged regions (eg: Far North Queensland 12.3%, Fairfield-Liverpool 9.5%, SE Melbourne 8.7%, N Adelaide 7.7% etc etc)
• Long term Newstart Allowees 280 138 persons at end September 2009 (DEEWR) – nearly 3 times ABS count
It was heading for 8%, but due to the actions of the Rudd Goverment, it was revised down.
Also you need to make note of the Youth Employment levels hit hardest.
[Wesley Rickard
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 12:18 am | Permalink
@ DisplayName – good thanks mate!
Makes me laugh to read some of the ludicrous comments made by lefties on here!
Great fun to pick the shit out of them & see the rant & delusional responses from them! Lol]
Wesley,
As a generally conservative contributor to this forum I know that it can be irritating to scroll past pages and pages of people trashing your political point of view. My advice is to debate rationally and thoughtfully rather than emotionally and abusively.
@Sean/1277
Because people of badgerys creek want the second airport at their place, according to galaxy poll.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/locals-want-a-second-airport-at-badgerys-creek/story-fnii5s3y-1226703806797
Wesley Rickard@1278
I have met him too and he is a dickhead.
Barely amateur grade footballer boofhead conversation.
The man is a fool.
@kezza2- that’s so funny, it’s pathetic really!
Don’t feel threatened by women whatsoever darling!
Have worked with many & we all should work together on a level playing field!
I think your the one has got your knickers in a twist on this subject & I suggest it is your insecurity towards men is the question that should be asked here?
Nemspy, we appreciate you conservatively contributing to this forum, it means we don’t have to scroll past quite so much ;).
DN
Thanks. I think.
I’m just a humble piss on everybody sort of guy.
[ The Cole Royal Commission of Inquiry received evidence that Howard Government Ministers received as many as 35 separate warnings over a five-year period about what the AWB was up to in Iraq. Every one of those warnings was ignored. ]
most incompetent government in history
[1276…peterk]
You seem to be arguing that this economy did not or does not need fiscal support. This is not really correct. The evidence is in the very slow growth rate of domestic demand, corresponding to prolonged weak income growth, especially when measured in per capita terms. These are legacies of the GFC and the boom that preceded it.
As stimulus has been withdrawn, domestic demand has been receding. It is now quite obvious that if fiscal policy is further tightened, unemployment will rise and recession will ensue. We have an economy that relies on some fiscal support to sustain growth. This reflects several things, but in particular it reflects very weak global conditions, stagnant global trade and an over-valued exchange rate, all of which stem from the crisis and policy reactions to it.
@ Nemspy- point taken! But if dirt is thrown at me, it’s going to thrown back twofold
[Why not turn Garden Island into the second Sydney Airport? ]
Only if you’re the first to land on it Sean
😀
Kezza2
I am keen on free range.
Go your hardest on the churl girls.
Wessy
[The Gillard feminists who created all this crap have a lot to answer for.]
Ooooh, we’re shaking in our boots. Cos the truth hurts, doesn’t it.
So cry me a river, build a bridge, and then get over it, big fella. Better still, stop sooking. You’re as bad as that liar Abbott sooking about Gillard. Grow a pair, mate.
briefly,
The other thing people don’t often get is that growth is slow now because of the overhang from the Howard years when private sector debt grew out of control and we had inflated property prices.
here’s some nice links I prepared before.
http://m.smh.com.au/business/we-have-a-debt-problem-says-nab-chief-20130801-2r29e.html
http://theconversation.com/the-truth-behind-our-dangerous-public-debt-levels-13245
oh and of course..
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hey-big-spender-howard-the-king-of-the-loose-purse-strings-20130110-2cj32.html
@Henry- bravo! Well thought response.
A lot of crap I might add!
briefly:
[I think it is all about shocking loss and how we respond to it – how we react to those among us who have experienced hell.]
At the community level, of course. Here though, we are discussing the management of public resources. Ideally, one doesn’t allocate mainly on the basis of feelings and sentiments but on the basis of need and feasibility. It seems to me though that sometimes, that creeps into decision-making through the channel of some moral panic or a campaign in the popular press that some scoundrel fancies he can exploit for personal gain. That seems to be what is afoot here. Indeed, it may well be that Abbott is simply trying to valorise Howard and the WoT for one more go around in the poll.
IMO, we need to start pulling back from moral panics — drugs, terrorism, “fat kids”, the dangers of the internet, “boats” and border security, defence spending etc … and populism … VFT, PPL etc …
Let’s keep compassion in mind, but likewise have a sober appreciation of the relationship between the resoruces we have and its ability to achieve worthy ends.
Not that I scroll past anyone’s posts. I might miss discovering something to argue with that way :D.
oops … getting late
[the relationship between the resources we have and their ability to achieve worthy ends.]
I could, if I was completely devoid of a rational and logical functioning brain, take the word of peterk in matters of stimulus and GFC or … I could accept the thoughts of Nobel Laureate and former world bank chief economist Joseph Stiglitz who …
” praised federal Labor’s management of the nation’s economy and its $42 billion stimulus package designed to stave off the worst of the global financial crisis.
But he’s less stimulated by the coalition’s economic ideas, saying the federal opposition had actually praised the architects of the global financial crisis.
He has named Martin Feldstein and John Taylor, former advisers to presidents Ronald Reagan and George W Bush, respectively, as contributing to the policies of deregulation that he says paved the way for the crisis.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott quoted both Mr Taylor and Mr Feldstein while criticising the government’s fiscal stimulus in a speech to party faithful on March 30, 2010.
Te Epoch Times 08 2010
Reminds me of that line from Monty Python.
“When one night, in a fit of picque, he napalmed Cheltenham. Now, even the Police began to sit up and take notice”
Well today even the Press Council sat up and took notice 🙂
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/27/us-australia-election-murdoch-idINBRE97Q0CK20130827?irpc=932
[1293
cud chewer
briefly,
The other thing people don’t often get is that growth is slow now because of the overhang from the Howard years when private sector debt grew out of control and we had inflated property prices.]
Exactly, cud. 🙂