Yesterday’s Essential Research release concludes what I’d normally regard in the off season as a weekly cycle of poll results, making this an appopriate moment for a situation report. News reports yesterday were full of talk of a shift back to Labor based on a three-point lift in their primary vote from Newspoll, which neatly encapsulates what’s wrong with mainstream journalism’s reportage of opinion polling. For all The Australian’s success in marketing it as the gold standard, Newspoll is not – and indeed, does not claim to be – any more immune to statistical noise than any other poll. This particular shift was undoubtedly more noise than signal, coming as it did off a below-par result in the previous week’s poll.
For a more meaningful read of the situation you should refer to a poll aggregate, of which the one most readily to hand is of course BludgerTrack. However, you can find much the same story being told by Julian King at Pottinger (who has the Coalition at 53.6%), Simon Jackman (53.5%), Mark the Ballot (52.7%), Kevin Bonham (52.3%) and the AFR’s Poll of Polls (51.8%) (with apologies to any I’ve missed, like Andrew Catsaras’s which only appears on Insiders). Much of the variation comes down to the weight given to Essential Research, which is excluded altogether by Mark the Ballot and downweighted by BludgerTrack for having gone off trend.
Mark the Ballot’s charts offer a better visual representation of what emerges from the numbers coming out of BludgerTrack, which is that the rate of Labor’s decline slowed this week. The current output of the BludgerTrack model has Labor down 0.4% since this time a week ago (note that this isn’t exactly the same thing as the “last week” comparison on the sidebar, which reflects the model’s result at that time rather than its current retrospective evaluation) compared with 0.7% in the week to August 17, 0.7% in the week to August 10 and 0.5% in the week to August 3. As Mark the Ballot and BludgerTrack concur, the rot set in around mid-July, perhaps a fortnight before the election was called.
Of course, it’s a little too late in the game for a mere slowing of the momentum against them to do Labor much good. It would take a black swan event to return Labor to parity in the 12 days still available to them, the potential nature of which is by definition impossible to foresee. Labor’s other hope of course is that the polls and the aggregates derived from them are fundamentally wrong. A favourite argument of those predisposed to this view is that the online polling of Essential Research is telling a different story from polls using other methods, having had Labor at a post-Gillard high of 50-50 for the past two weeks. Nate Silver, it is noted, gave online polling the highest collective score in his post-match report after the presidential election, finding an average error of 2.1% compared with 3.5% for live interview phone polls and 5.0% for “robopolls”.
However, I would observe that the pollsters at the top end of Silver’s list are a mix of live phone interview and internet polls, with the live phone interview average dragged down by a number of poor performers at the bottom end (the most spectacular example being Gallup). Given the strong performances of Newspoll and Galaxy at recent state elections, at least on two-party preferred, it would require a leap of faith to conclude that either belongs in the latter camp. If anything, the risk appears to be on the downside for Labor. Essential Research aside, the big anomaly of the polling picture is that national polls have been kinder to Labor than electorate-level ones, a phenomenon by no means unique to the robo-polls (and it should be noted that the disparity seems to be lower in the case of Galaxy’s automated polling, suggesting that “house” as much as “method” bias has been at work here).
Now to some observations on the state-level projections. Labor received a large bounce in New South Wales and Queensland after Kevin Rudd’s return, bringing them into parity with the 2010 election result in the former case and well in front of it in the latter. However, in Victoria the move to Labor was more subdued. Three weeks after the Rudd comeback, BludgerTrack had the Coalition’s national lead at 50.5-49.5 and pointed to swings in Labor’s favour of 0.6% in New South Wales and 2.4% in Queensland, while going 3.7% in the other direction in Victoria (remembering that the 2010 election gave Labor its best result in Victoria since the Second World War). So far as BludgerTrack is concerned, the decline in Labor’s fortunes since has been driven by New South Wales, where the swing has now caught up with Victoria’s. That being so, one could perhaps hypothesise that it’s the Daily Telegraph wot’s winning it.
As for Queensland, that 2.4% swing to Labor is still there as far as BludgerTrack is concerned, inconsistent as that may be with reports of internal polling, the weekend Newspoll showing Labor going heavily backwards across eight Liberal National Party marginals, and a series of grim results for Labor coming out of Griffith and Forde. I keep waiting for new data from Queensland to square the circle by showing the other recent results to have been anomalous, and it keeps not happening. Of the last nine data points available to me from Queensland, which go back as far as August 7, only one fails to show a swing to Labor. The one exception is the sturdiest result of the bunch – an 800-sample Galaxy poll conducted late in the first week of the campaign. The rest are sub-samples from national polls, some (but not all) with very small samples.
The samples are smaller still for Western Australia and South Australia, although there are enough of them that it would be hoped that aggregating them would get you fairly close to a real world figure. On this basis, Labor’s once promising position in Western Australia relative to the 2010 result seems to have deteriorated significantly. In South Australia, Labor is rating a little better than media chatter (not to mention the weekend’s Hindmarsh poll) suggests they should be, though not to the extent of indicating an improvement on the 2010 status quo in terms of seats.
One final thought. With Labor holding 72 seats out of 150, it seems very likely that they will need a swing in their favour if they are going to win the election. Out of 17 national and 39 electorate-level polls conducted during the campaign (not counting a small number of electorate polls involving Greens or independent sitting members), not a single one has shown such a thing.
the US warning re Bali nightclubs came relatively soon after the 911 attacks yet the howard government threw it in the bin.
Why?
Good Night.
Briefly.
The person to whom I refer. Lenny Gough. There is much more on this matter. Including the involvement of Nick Xenophon and Tim Costello.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3793974.htm
Would be good to see the odds on Rudd going to G20.
I personally think he’ll go… it’ll be his last hurrah to boost his ego before he’s chucked out once and for all.
Isn’t the G20 on at the same time as the Labor launch?
I take it Brough is still sadly a shoe in for Fisher, despite his Ashby shenanigans. Been any polling done there recently? Last poll had Slipper on less than 2% of the primary IIRC.
[1203….crikey whitey]
People at the margin are treated as if they are of no consequence at all….tks for pointing this story out to me. It is very current, too.
davidwh
Part of the judgment
“[199] Even though I have not found that the combination was as wide as Mr Slipper alleged in his points of claim, the evidence established that there was a combination involving Mr Ashby, Ms Doane and Mr Brough of that kind. Mr Ashby acted in combination with Ms Doane and Mr Brough when commencing the proceedings in order to advance the interests of the LNP and Mr Brough. Mr Ashby and Ms Doane set out to use the proceedings as part of their means to enhance or promote their prospects of advancement or preferment by the LNP, including by using Mr Brough to assist them in doing so. And the evidence also established that the proceedings were an abuse of the process of the Court for the reasons I have given. Accordingly, I am satisfied that the exceptional situation that enlivens the Court’s power to dismiss (or stay) proceedings as an abuse has been proved to the heavy standard required: Williams 174 CLR at 529. The duty and power of the Court to protect its own processes require that I give effect to the findings I have made by dismissing the proceedings under r 26.01.”
Night guytaur
Got a link paaptsef? We could get it trending on the twitters.
Fibre to the boats!
http://www.fttb.org
😀
[1201
paaptsef
the US warning re Bali nightclubs came relatively soon after the 911 attacks yet the howard government threw it in the bin.
Why?]
Can these claims be authenticated, p?
I’d like that link about bali too.
Yes I know what the judgement says Victoria.
ST1204
Given the disgraceful way he’s tried to turn the Syrian situation to his advantage, it could be possible. He’s last throw of the dice, got nothing to lose. With Australia taking over the chair of the UN security council on the weekend, he can say he needs to be there because of the events in Syria…and try to make an unfavourable comparison with how at ease he is on the world stage compared with Tony Abbott.
davidwh
Brough has a lot to answet for. Why he is still a candidate is beyond me
Anyhow night all
I’d actually like Rudd go to the G20 and Abbott to tag along, if that’s possible. Preferably without the selfies.
Call me a sucker for neoliberal institutionalism but I think it’s too important for political games.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-27/israel-shekel-weakens-as-u-s-mulls-military-attack-on-syria.html
[The shekel posted the steepest two-day loss in more than three months after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Syria will be held accountable for using chemical weapons.
The shekel depreciated 1.3 percent to 3.6539 a dollar, at 2:48 p.m. in Tel Aviv, taking the two-day decline to 1.8 percent, the most since the two days ending May 14. The currency is the fifth-worst performer in the period among an expanded list of 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Israel’s TA-25 benchmark stock index slumped 2 percent to 1,160.79, the lowest level since Sept. 23.
Emerging-market currencies and global stocks fell as the Obama administration vowed to hold Syria’s government responsible for using chemical weapons and with its allies moves closer to a decision on retaliatory military strikes. Hossein Sheikholeslam, the Iranian parliament’s director-general for international affairs, yesterday told the state-run Fars news agency that Israel risks being the “victim” if any attempt is made to attack Syria.
“Foreign investors are shunning Israeli assets on concern that a possible U.S. attack on Syria will include Israel in an escalation,” said Moshe Nir, a trader at Mercantile Discount Bank Ltd. in Tel Aviv.]
The AUD is also weaker tonight on the risks of US attacks on Syria. This is going from bad to worse.
@Marrickville Mauler- typical response from a ALP supporter or should I say staffer?
Can’t expect anything lower from your crew!
Somebody expresses a point of view that you take a dislike too & you call them mentally unstable?
Come on, grow up!!
Pull your head in & don’t think I’m afraid of what you can throw at me!
As I stated a numerous times in the past people’s assessment of Rudd’s character were always painted in absolute. If he drank a coffee the statement would be he is a caffeine fiend, of he sneezed it would be an attempt to insult something, if he told a bunch of MPs looking to pad their expenses (riffle the budget for their gain) to FO he was being to harsh on so soft and gentle a people….and so on.
Everything if it wasn’t an actual total invention like we are finding out some were, it would be a gross exaggeration of a reality.
People should have twigged from the beginning due to the fact that criticism on Rudd were always in the extreme, and coming from persons/areas that benefited from his character assassination.
Another warning should have been the extraordinary situation where you have a former PM (only minutes before) being publicly character assassinated in personal ways by people from his own party, doing themselves as much harm as him. This is something that would and should never happened and should have alerted everybody that this was 100% about a power play within the party.
AND because this assassination dovetailed into a need to promote and justify another, it was greeted with uncritical acceptance and expanded on and repeated over and over.
And now we get the some dribbles here and there that some of these things were pure invention.
And you have to wonder how an ogre with whom nobody could work was able to design and implement with the help of Ken Henry a Brilliant GFC savior package that had to be done quickly.
I know many here have so tied themselves to Rudd hatred and all the associated stories that it will be impossible for them to admit some truths, even when they know it.
Beware when your enemy feeds you the food you most crave.
Victoria totally agree. If I lived in the next electorate rather than Longman my decision would have been much easier to arrive at.
[PS don’t forget the hair dryer Kevin]
As media watch pointed out last night, Malcolm Farr, a NEWS LTD JOURNO who was present on that trip said that alleged episode never happened.
Complete baloney!
crikey whitey:
Yes, kezza’s observations are spot on re Abbott.
The warning tourists never heard
The Prime Minister, John Howard, yesterday admitted that Australia received recent US intelligence identifying Bali as a possible target of a terrorist attack on Western tourists but had decided not to change its advice to Australian holidaymakers.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/10/16/1034561213880.html
[1217
Carey Moore
I’d actually like Rudd go to the G20 and Abbott to tag along, if that’s possible. Preferably without the selfies.
Call me a sucker for neoliberal institutionalism but I think it’s too important for political games.]
I think the G20 will cope without the PM just this once, CM. Isn’t Minister Carr standing in? Someone is.
[and try to make an unfavourable comparison with how at ease he is on the world stage compared with Tony Abbott.]
If Rudd pulled the G20 “must attend” stunt he’d be laughed out of office and might not make it back in time to vote.
lefty e
[PS don’t forget the hair dryer Kevin]
Ok it wasn’t true but can you tell me what the story was anyway, just in case …
Rudd is a psycho Thomas Paine but he is better than their psycho I suppose so in that sense he gets the win.
I take it you haven’t read The Stalking of Gillard? Leaving aside the bias of the author, the direct quotes of former Rudd staffers and various officials who worked for him portray a very damaged, sclerotic individual indeed.
[TP…Beware when your enemy feeds you the food you most crave.]
LMAO. Any more pithy thayings for us, Tom?
@Briefly/1218
Not sure what Rudd can do in this situation RE: Syria, other than to expect boat arrivals.
The warning tourists never heard
‘The Prime Minister, John Howard, yesterday admitted that Australia received recent US intelligence identifying Bali as a possible target of a terrorist attack on Western tourists but had decided not to change its advice to Australian holidaymakers’.
Maybe the money move a l’abbott is more about forestalling a potential class action.
Confessions.
For sure. Appalling.
@CW/1231
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/10/16/1034561213880.html
?
[In fact, Abbott thought he was celebrating women. He thinks women want to be thought of as f*ckable above everything else.]
But why shouldn’t Abbott think that?
He was buying into the Mammamia crowd, who seem to hang on every word of Mia Freedman, who tells her audience that being sexy for a man is the ultimate for a woman, while being a witty pseudo intellect at current affairs is haute with the home-welcoming wine.
Because Mia, who didn’t think much of Gillard’s petit bourgeois-ness, especially after girlie get-togethers with Gillard at Kirribilli House, along with her coterie of contributors, sank the boots into the Labor party.
It was hilarious to read a tweet from Mia, not long after the Rudd takeover, that it was all so boring now that Gillard was no longer in residence.
Well, hello, Mia.
You didn’t appreciate what you had until it was gone.
Same for Wendy Harmer’s Hoopla.
Wendy was well and truly over feminism, could scarcely raise an eyebrow about Gillard’s demise. In fact, she was all for it.
She was so much more for Leadbetter’s Possum, possums.
Sure, she has Tracey Spicer as a regular tit for women’s issues. Wow, Wendy.
Bet you’re not getting the hits, nor is Mammamia, now that Gillard is gone.
Thankfully you’ve gotten rid of the partisan Gabrielle Chan who could no more say a nice word about Labor than breathe Nationals. At least she got a chit as a Canberra Press Gallery-ite on your watch.
Pity she is now writing for Guardian Oz,along with that other ‘sketch writer’ Katherine Murphy, who can barely disguise her political affiliations.
It’s not just Abbott who is women’s worst enemy, it is successful women themselves, who have sons they think they need to protect lest they become namby pambies, who become women’s worst enemies.
Then they have the gall to tell women the fight is over (it’s only just begun – thanks, Karen) and all you have to do from now on is buy whatever Mia and Wendy tell you to.
You women, Mia and Wendy, et al, are my worst nightmare. You think because you’ve made it, other women just can do the same.
You know it’s not like that at all. And if it was, you’d be out of business. Not something you’d like.
Anyway, I’m voting Labor. I’ll be handing out HTV cards on September 7 for my local member. And I’ll be proud to do so.
Ken Henry…such a champ. He is responsible for:
advising Costello to abolish tax on super income for the over-60’s…a decision now helping to keep the budget in the red, and setting up a permanent political divide on generational grounds;
advising Swan to introduce the RSPT…directly leading to the implosion of the First Kevin Era;
advising Gillard that the China BOOM would last for thirty years….leading her to make many false predictions of a return to surplus.
He is the kind of expert you hope goes to work for the other side.
[Rudd is a psycho]
Thank you for proving my point.
Everything has to be in the extreme or it is of no use to you. It suits the Rudd hatred you adopted early on that enabled you to adopt his successor. So to be able to continue your hatred accepting something other than extremes is impossible.
That’ll do paaptsef, thanks.
Imagine if Rudd had done the same with such advice, the murdoch rags would be accusing him of murder.
Also there is this one:
Howard censured over push for war with Iraq
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/10/08/1065292604414.html
[Wasn’t Abbott among those Liberals who opposed compensation to the stolen generations?]
Labor didn’t provide any compensation for the stolen generations.
[Wesley Rickard
Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 11:01 pm | PERMALINK
@kezza2
You disgusting individual! What absolute crap!
How dare you make such a statement!
Another dishonest & low comment I have come accustomed to from rusted on Labor Party scum]
Oh, Wes baby, suck it up, soldier.
I’ll probably have to take your pulse any moment now.
If I don’t get one, I promise I won’t do mouth-to-mouth.
[TP…Beware when your enemy feeds you the food you most crave.
LMAO. Any more pithy thayings for us, Tom?]
Well we know you turned 180 degrees to Rudd hatred the moment he mentioned the Mining tax. So butt hurt you were that ever since everything you say is informed by an irrational Rudd hatred. You and BW are like twins on your incessant irrational and highly personal hatred of Rudd. It reveals you to be the shallow thinker you are despite your pretenses.
Kezza does write so well. Superb stuff.
[1230
zoidlord
@Briefly/1218
Not sure what Rudd can do in this situation RE: Syria, other than to expect boat arrivals.]
One thing he should not do is wish up calls for exemplary punishments. This is very poor strategy and, in the current case, amounts to trying to use diplomatic opportunity for domestic political gain.
Ken Henry and the Treasury Department he bequeathed are a laughing stock (or should be) To get things so wrong, so consistently… Forget the unions, one of the first acts of the new government should be to establish a Royal Commission into their performance over the last 5 years.
briefly
[Strange. I thought this was only about compassion or empathy. It is, in any case, about loss.]
From the POV of those who have suffered, it obviously is, but from the perspective of policy choice, it obviously isn’t. As far as such a thing can be, it must be about non-arbitrary allocation of resources, otherwise, in the attempt to salve one person’s pain, one may choose to leave two others much the worse, though one might never hear of them.
Kezza2.
Mia Freedman.
Sucks teeth.
And was Wendy Harmer ever a gal’s woman?
Seem to recall a challenging, for me, show at the Adelaide Fringe.
Thomas. Paine.@1236
well that makes no sense.
Rudd is mad, bad and dangerous. And a bald faced liar (see his backgrounding to varioius jouran;ists, never denied, that he would depose Julia in two stages).\
But as I say, he is our psychopath and is slightly better than theirs.
@peterk/1244
You mean the same performance that saved us from GFC?
Right, this is just another queue word.
Thomas Paine has been quite persuasive in recent times.
Since he connected with a dot.
He makes the odd error. Eg working with Ken Henry. Maybe Rudd did so. Or not.
But what then, in terms of implementation?
Maybe, in light of your analysis, Briefly, Rudd adopted the worst.
Warning. This post is rife with contradiction.
Zoidlord/1248
Especially that. He grossly overreacted..predicting unemployment would rise to 8.5% within a few months. Never was going to happen that quickly. Our economy is much more closely tied to Asia now than the US or EU, and therefore the effects were always going to be secondary (once China slowed down as a consequence of the US slowdown) and more long term. But he panicked and along with Rudd talked up the dangers, precipitating the crisis of confidence that they then needed to ‘rescue’ us from via the stimulus.