Yesterday’s Essential Research release concludes what I’d normally regard in the off season as a weekly cycle of poll results, making this an appopriate moment for a situation report. News reports yesterday were full of talk of a shift back to Labor based on a three-point lift in their primary vote from Newspoll, which neatly encapsulates what’s wrong with mainstream journalism’s reportage of opinion polling. For all The Australian’s success in marketing it as the gold standard, Newspoll is not – and indeed, does not claim to be – any more immune to statistical noise than any other poll. This particular shift was undoubtedly more noise than signal, coming as it did off a below-par result in the previous week’s poll.
For a more meaningful read of the situation you should refer to a poll aggregate, of which the one most readily to hand is of course BludgerTrack. However, you can find much the same story being told by Julian King at Pottinger (who has the Coalition at 53.6%), Simon Jackman (53.5%), Mark the Ballot (52.7%), Kevin Bonham (52.3%) and the AFR’s Poll of Polls (51.8%) (with apologies to any I’ve missed, like Andrew Catsaras’s which only appears on Insiders). Much of the variation comes down to the weight given to Essential Research, which is excluded altogether by Mark the Ballot and downweighted by BludgerTrack for having gone off trend.
Mark the Ballot’s charts offer a better visual representation of what emerges from the numbers coming out of BludgerTrack, which is that the rate of Labor’s decline slowed this week. The current output of the BludgerTrack model has Labor down 0.4% since this time a week ago (note that this isn’t exactly the same thing as the “last week” comparison on the sidebar, which reflects the model’s result at that time rather than its current retrospective evaluation) compared with 0.7% in the week to August 17, 0.7% in the week to August 10 and 0.5% in the week to August 3. As Mark the Ballot and BludgerTrack concur, the rot set in around mid-July, perhaps a fortnight before the election was called.
Of course, it’s a little too late in the game for a mere slowing of the momentum against them to do Labor much good. It would take a black swan event to return Labor to parity in the 12 days still available to them, the potential nature of which is by definition impossible to foresee. Labor’s other hope of course is that the polls and the aggregates derived from them are fundamentally wrong. A favourite argument of those predisposed to this view is that the online polling of Essential Research is telling a different story from polls using other methods, having had Labor at a post-Gillard high of 50-50 for the past two weeks. Nate Silver, it is noted, gave online polling the highest collective score in his post-match report after the presidential election, finding an average error of 2.1% compared with 3.5% for live interview phone polls and 5.0% for “robopolls”.
However, I would observe that the pollsters at the top end of Silver’s list are a mix of live phone interview and internet polls, with the live phone interview average dragged down by a number of poor performers at the bottom end (the most spectacular example being Gallup). Given the strong performances of Newspoll and Galaxy at recent state elections, at least on two-party preferred, it would require a leap of faith to conclude that either belongs in the latter camp. If anything, the risk appears to be on the downside for Labor. Essential Research aside, the big anomaly of the polling picture is that national polls have been kinder to Labor than electorate-level ones, a phenomenon by no means unique to the robo-polls (and it should be noted that the disparity seems to be lower in the case of Galaxy’s automated polling, suggesting that “house” as much as “method” bias has been at work here).
Now to some observations on the state-level projections. Labor received a large bounce in New South Wales and Queensland after Kevin Rudd’s return, bringing them into parity with the 2010 election result in the former case and well in front of it in the latter. However, in Victoria the move to Labor was more subdued. Three weeks after the Rudd comeback, BludgerTrack had the Coalition’s national lead at 50.5-49.5 and pointed to swings in Labor’s favour of 0.6% in New South Wales and 2.4% in Queensland, while going 3.7% in the other direction in Victoria (remembering that the 2010 election gave Labor its best result in Victoria since the Second World War). So far as BludgerTrack is concerned, the decline in Labor’s fortunes since has been driven by New South Wales, where the swing has now caught up with Victoria’s. That being so, one could perhaps hypothesise that it’s the Daily Telegraph wot’s winning it.
As for Queensland, that 2.4% swing to Labor is still there as far as BludgerTrack is concerned, inconsistent as that may be with reports of internal polling, the weekend Newspoll showing Labor going heavily backwards across eight Liberal National Party marginals, and a series of grim results for Labor coming out of Griffith and Forde. I keep waiting for new data from Queensland to square the circle by showing the other recent results to have been anomalous, and it keeps not happening. Of the last nine data points available to me from Queensland, which go back as far as August 7, only one fails to show a swing to Labor. The one exception is the sturdiest result of the bunch – an 800-sample Galaxy poll conducted late in the first week of the campaign. The rest are sub-samples from national polls, some (but not all) with very small samples.
The samples are smaller still for Western Australia and South Australia, although there are enough of them that it would be hoped that aggregating them would get you fairly close to a real world figure. On this basis, Labor’s once promising position in Western Australia relative to the 2010 result seems to have deteriorated significantly. In South Australia, Labor is rating a little better than media chatter (not to mention the weekend’s Hindmarsh poll) suggests they should be, though not to the extent of indicating an improvement on the 2010 status quo in terms of seats.
One final thought. With Labor holding 72 seats out of 150, it seems very likely that they will need a swing in their favour if they are going to win the election. Out of 17 national and 39 electorate-level polls conducted during the campaign (not counting a small number of electorate polls involving Greens or independent sitting members), not a single one has shown such a thing.
[We need another opinion poll soon – you lot are going spare.]
Perhaps, instead of trying to be the conversation police, you could actually contribute something; start a topic of conversation if you will…
GG – the game itself is up shit creek. And I’m a huge follower.
[1037…confessions]
Thanks for the link, confessions. I have no idea how this might play in the electorate, but for me the word “tickets” springs to mind.
Briefly and Boerwar. It has not gone unnoticed.
692 and 744
Boerwar
‘Why isn’t Abbott talking about climate change. Everything else is small beer’.
‘We hadn’t spoken for a while, and, in the course of our catching-up, he related how the sea surface temperatures around the Eyre Peninsula had been very elevated last summer, and there had been widespread destruction of marine species along the peninsula coast and in the Spencer Gulf. This is well known to me in WA, but is the first time anyone from SA has mentioned the same kind of events have also occurred there.
BEACHGOERS, lifesaving clubs and councils are united in demanding answers over the mass death of marine life littering local beaches. They have welcomed a decision by the State Government, in the face of mounting public concern, to set up a taskforce of scientists to investigate the mass fish kill.
But they warn the findings must be acted upon to quell community concerns of a repeat event.
Seacliff Surf Life Saving president Andrew Chandler said he was eager to learn the outcome of the investigation.
“We need to know if it is a natural phenomenon or caused by humans to show us that we are not doing anything wrong as a community, or if it does come from pollution then this is something we must address,” he said.
Thousands of dead fish have washed up along the foreshore at Moana Beach.
SIXTEEN dolphins have mysteriously washed up on beaches in the past month;
TWO penguins were found dead locally, one at Holdfast Shores and the other at Seacliff
TENS of thousands of small fish as well as snapper, whiting, kingfish and mulloway were found washed up in the sands between Brighton and Marino.
Thousands of dead fish have washed up along the foreshore at Moana Beach.
Henley Surf Life Saving Club president Neville Fielder said the spate of dead marine life was the worst in his 40 years at the beach.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/life-savers-and-councils-demand-answers-over-dead-fish-washing-up-on-our-shores/story-e6frea83-1226615179381
ABC biased? Many posters here regard it as biased in favour of the Coalition. I don’t regard the ABC as biased one way or the other. One issue I do have is that it’s program’s often take their lead from the morning papers, mostly published by guess who. So the Murdochracy has spread its tentacles into ABC news and current affairs. That’s not bias, that’s a combination of stretched resources and maybe laziness. And many vocal and articulate paid lobbyists from the IPA grace The Drum to peddle their paymasters’ views.
The only place I see bias is in the Arts segments, where if political views are mentioned at all tend to be towards the left. So Arts and entertainment have a left wing bias? Big deal – arts people tend to be the sort that rejected their elders’ advice to go for a ‘real’ job in the bank. And no one seems to be worried that almost all business figures are ‘biased’ towards the right. It’s not bias, it’s a combination of economic interest and ideology.
P.S. someone whose beliefs you agree with is ‘principled’. Those with strong beliefs you disagree with are ‘ideological’.
Dio
[He signed off on like 1500 drug injections for his players. And let non-medical people prescribe and administer them.
In any other profession, he would be sacked.]
He had had no coaching experience before taking the job. He’s not medically qualified to judge such things. Dank is the sports scientist he trusted. How was Hird to know that was misplaced? Ban someone for life for deliberate malpractice or negligence, but not for naivete or inexperience.
[On Monday, Mr Abbott said that in the first 100 days of a Coalition government, he would ensure all Australian victims of terrorism overseas, past and future, would be eligible for victims-of-crime compensation of up to $75,000 each.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/father-of-thomas-kelly-urges-tony-abbott-to-rethink-his-attitude-after-comment-on-crime-victims-20130827-2snzq.html#ixzz2dAT15CO4 ]
FFS he is ADDICTED to spending while accusing Labor of reckless spending!
Come on Labor, if you can’t make hay with inconsistencies, you aren’t bloody trying!
So does the Abbott marriage giveaway specify heterosexuality?
[Kevin Rudd has launched an extraordinary attack on Tony Abbott, accusing him of lacking the “temperament” and experience to handle complex international situations such as the worsening crisis engulfing Syria.]
Kev, forever the pompous ass, is hoping that Syria is his Hurricane Sandy moment when he can look presidential however he should check with Hillary how her taunts to Obama went in 2008 “who do you trust to answer the phone at the White House at 3am?”. In Rudd’s case anyone but him ‘cos he’d need to comb his hair first. The public are also suitably unimpressed with his fakery – betfair ALP $13.50 which shoots Gillard’s worst ever odds right out of the water.
glory,
Yeah, I reckon Carlton are playing terrible too!
James Hird is getting a contract extension, according to Gerard Whately
@Confessions/1050
Agreed!
FFs So sick of this Essedon Rubbish.
Who watches AFL anyways… it’s a girls sport, NRL is a real mans sport.
[1054….crikey whitey]
tks, cw
GG
[Whether it is an earned accolade or a distorted perception of reality, perception rules the roost in today’s Australia]
I suspect it’s a hangover from a couple of decades ago. IMO, it has not been vaguely willing to criticise systematically the coalition paradigm from at least the Alston years. More broadly, it has done faux balance on climate change from about 2006 and with especial vigour since 2009.
[Diogenes
Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 8:59 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
I think Hird has gotten off very lightly. I can’t see why he hasn’t been banned for life.]
I agree, actually.
But then I thought Geelong’s Gary Hocking should have been rubbed out.
And I was a Cats supporter.
[Who watches AFL anyways… it’s a girls sport, NRL is a real mans sport.}
who wooda guessed Shorn is a league guy?
briefly:
Abbott also has this tendency to blurt out the first thing that comes into his head, such as we saw today:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/father-of-thomas-kelly-urges-tony-abbott-to-rethink-his-attitude-after-comment-on-crime-victims-20130827-2snzq.html
Plus his aversion to hard work, preferring instead to be on his bike or gutting fish, or staring at potholes on some forsaken highway somewhere.
It can’t be that hard to characterise him as someone who wants the power and trappings of office without having to do any of the hard yakka that comes with it, but Labor have been wholly unable to do so.
glory,
So in 2015 Hird returns. The Bombers don’t have any draft picks and their current list are a year older and or gone away because of of the scandal.
Essendon will be starting from a long way behind, they will continue to lose games and the guy who put them in that position will be the Coach.
Sounds like a recipe for a sacking to me.
Abbott is quite capable of making some massive mistakes on the international scene that could take us all into hot water he is that stupid and that driven to suck up to the right people.
He easily goes down the path of offending indonesia to the extent of envisaging navies in stand off on borders. Thinks of Indonesia as some place he put in his own laws….maybe he thinks he is Sherrif.
Rudd is dead right on the international scene the Coalition will be morons, but useful fools for the US.
[James Hird is getting a contract extension, according to Gerard Whately]
That is disappointing if true.
Talk about giving the finger to the AFL.
Mick77, if you compare with the odds on Labor now and what they were months ago, you need to take into account ‘time’ as well. I’d suggest you avoid options trading.
[FFs So sick of this Essedon Rubbish.
Who watches AFL anyways… it’s a girls sport, NRL is a real mans sport.]
Ahh yes NRL the only sport where testicle biting is a common tackle method.
GG
Hmmmm…..Actually James Hird suspension effective from 25th August 2013 for 12 months which means he can return ths time next year just in time for the finals in 2014
[1057
confessions
On Monday, Mr Abbott said that in the first 100 days of a Coalition government, he would ensure all Australian victims of terrorism overseas, past and future, would be eligible for victims-of-crime compensation of up to $75,000 each.]
How to turn compassion into a political advert, by TA. It is impossible to object to this sort of thing, but I can’t help thinking this seeks to make political profit from violent horror. fwiw, does anyone know if such compensation is already available?
[Essendon will be starting from a long way behind, they will continue to lose games and the guy who put them in that position will be the Coach.]
That’s true.
Diogenes
[The correct term is “scot free”. Evidently “scot” refers to a tax.]
Thank dog for that. I fired off a dismissive missive today to a particularly argumentative rellie, and used the words “scot free”.
When I saw you usually meticulous self using scott free, I had a moment of urrrgh!
And forget the fact that I said I was a Cats supporter, I AM a Cats supporter.
briefly:
I would’ve thought so, but actually don’t know.
triton
[He had had no coaching experience before taking the job. He’s not medically qualified to judge such things. Dank is the sports scientist he trusted. How was Hird to know that was misplaced? Ban someone for life for deliberate malpractice or negligence, but not for naivete or inexperience.]
Dr Reid told Hird-in writing- that his trust in Dank was seriously misplaced and Hird didn’t care.
He was recklessly indifferent to what was happening.
{Rudd is dead right on the international scene the Coalition will be morons, but useful fools for the US.]
Rudd sucks up to the American’s like there’s no tomorrow – but there will be one.
vic,
I’d suggest suspension means not being a part of the club structure. So, even were the Bombers to be in contention this time next year, a return then would seem unlikely.
I’d suggest he take his wife and family on a long trip around Australia and get completely away frm the whole circus.
After that, he could decide whether he wants to step back in to the cauldron.
Five good reasons why Garden Island Sydney should be shut down
1. It is far too hard to walk out the main gates and up the Macleay Street hill to to the Cross.
2. It is far too hard to take the alternative 257 concrete steps up the face of the cliff to Kuttabul and out the gates to the Cross.
3. It is far too dangerous walking down the Macleay Street hill pissed to go back to the ship without being trapped by Harry The Wheels for a maggot bag with a hemorrhage.
4. It is far too dangerous trying to walk down the 257 concrete steps at the back of Kuttabul pissed and missing a maggot bag with a hemorrhage from Harrys
In the case of 3 and 4 it is worse when the caisons aren’t in dividing the dry docks, it’s a helluva walk round to the wharf/berth.
I must admit that in my days walking through the Cross at 2am you had a better chance of scoring a root than a king hit.
Murdoch Newscorpse have undertaken a nation wide high intensity campaign for the Coalition and anti Rudd Labor. They are absolutely determined to get the NBN neutered and all the advantages that will flow their way from a ‘paid for’ Coalition.
But if Newscorpses win this battle inevitably it will come back to destroy them as they have now made it an absolutely imperative they be broken up and the nefarious influence destroyed. OR do they think they will keep Labor out of power for ever?
Murdoch is stupid in overplaying his had like this especially if Abbott doesn’t get the Senate and is unable to gift as much as Newscorpse would like, as the back lash when Labor come back into power will be guaranteed and the loss for them greater.
With Abbott dipping into his bottomless gift sack and offering bonuses for unemployed people of $2k and $6k forn keeping a job for 12 and 24 months what happens in the frequent dsituation where for no fault of him or her their employement is terminated?
@confessions 1038
That line of attack is so far overdue that it may even be too late. Labor should have been hammering lines like this throughout the whole campaign. If there’s one thing I hear often, even from staunch Liberals, is that they cringe at the thought of Abbott on the world stage.
Thomas
[Rudd is dead right on the international scene the Coalition will be morons]
That’s why Rudd should do whatever he needs to to demonstrate that, including a trip to the G20 in desperation if necessary. Make people picture the national embarrassment of Abbott at such meetings.
Gaff
They all seem like good reasons
[Ahh yes NRL the only sport where testicle biting is a common tackle method.]
Or where sticking a finger in an opponent’s fundament is okay. Or is that Union.
Forgive this AFL fairy for confusing the two mighty battles in claiming victory in the pre-school game of Charlie Over the Water.
briefly,
These grand gestures as a substitute for political substance are always nonsense.
Why do Bushfire victims get millions in public and Government assistance, while victims of crime get bugger all?
Why the Bali bombing victims and not people who are subjected to random acts of violence on our streets.
Who would want to coach Essendon for one year knowing you will be sacked at the end of the year for Hird?
You’d think only Goodwin or Bomber Thompson would take the job.
Re: Essendon….seems they are jumping at shadows. Surely the innocent until guilty rule applies. Seems there is a grey area between legal and illegal supplements…..surely innocent until guilty?
Bryon
[Mick77, if you compare with the odds on Labor now and what they were months ago, you need to take into account ‘time’ as well. I’d suggest you avoid options trading.]
I’m not sure that the black-scholes model is as relevant in an election betting market and it’s certainly not relevant for most readers here but in general, yes you’re right, Gillard at these odds a long way out, is more significant than rudd close to the date. However she never got to $13.50!
[If there’s one thing I hear often, even from staunch Liberals, is that they cringe at the thought of Abbott on the world stage.]
We all do. Its what unites us as Australians.
Dr Fum
….not to forget the thumb suppository…
that where the suppository of all wisdom came from?
Gaffhook
[I must admit that in my days walking through the Cross at 2am you had a better chance of scoring a root than a king hit.]
So you could afford it. That’s not an excuse to brag, more an admission of defeat.
leftye,
Don’t worry Julie Bishop will smooth the way!
Dio
[Dr Reid told Hird-in writing- that his trust in Dank was seriously misplaced and Hird didn’t care.]
Dr Reid gave the impression of a yesterday’s man in that letter (as Hird would have seen it). It was mostly a philosophical opinion on the type of program implemented. Hird was obviously listening to others with more “modern” thinking. That still is no indication of malpractice or negligence if he believed that those others knew what they were doing.
BK:
Don’t ask inconvenient questions!
briefly:
[It is impossible to object to this sort of thing, but I can’t help thinking this seeks to make political profit from violent horror. ]
It’s not only possible. It should be strenuously protested. As GG says, where would one draw the line? Doesn’t state money have to reflect some sort of rational policy priority?
One can be very sorry if someone falls victim to criminal violence and I’m for them getting good access to all the support services they need. If they need income support while this is going on, then by all means, lets give them some sort of disability support and where apt give them access to VoC provisions.
But this sort of thing really is grandstanding with public money. If there were spare cash about there are any number of stronger claimants.
[1068
confessions
briefly:
Abbott also has this tendency to blurt out the first thing that comes into his head, such as we saw today…]
Sure, Abbott is an outburst in waiting. But I wonder if KR can get away with tagging Abbott on temperament. It seems foolish to me. Surely the point is for Rudd to demonstrate his own aptitude rather than to dispense a public lesson on tact and discretion. In the good old days we have described Rudd as meretricious.